PV Technology Development Revolution by Evolution

Gaëtan Masson Vice-Chairman

JRC Round Table on EU PV Industry

Brussels 27 01 2015

PV Market

100 Bn EUR 40 GW in 2014

(pvmarketalliance.com)

Some numbers

5%

Commercial PV technologies Efficiencies will continue to increase

0

5

10

15

20

2520

00

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Effic

ienc

y (%

)

Year

Wafer silicon - high endmonoWafer silicon -mainstream monoWafer silicon -mainstream multiThin-film CIGS

Thin-film CdTe

Thin-film aSi/µcSi

Thin-film aSi

silicium silicon

thin films

And more to come Wafer/thin-film hybrids, etc.

0

5

10

15

20

2520

00

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Effic

ienc

y (%

)

Year

Wafer silicon - high endmonoWafer silicon -mainstream monoWafer silicon -mainstream multiThin-film CIGS

Thin-film CdTe

Thin-film aSi/µcSi

Thin-film aSi

silicium silicon

thin films

PV technologies Critical success factors (1)

Economies of scale have largely been reached for mature technologies GW-scale factories are a reality already today

Key drivers for further cost reduction are now: increase of efficiency & energy yield (incl. bifaciality) low materials consumption / low-cost materials

PV technologies Critical success factors (2)

Additional drivers / value-adding features: long lifetime / high reliability cost of capital ! overall sustainability optional: added functionality/ special features, e.g.

shade tolerance, partial transparency, aesthetics, flexibility of size/shape, anti-fouling, etc.

Total quality control and labeling (technical quality, environmental quality, CSR, etc.) may gain value in different markets

PV technologies Market differentiation (1)

Trend of increasing module efficiencies will continue for decades to come

Toolbox of science and technology is well filled Europe is very well-positioned in most segments

of research and innovation High module efficiency (at competitive cost)

will be decisive for sustainable success in the main GW-scale markets: it is the levy for cost reduction at system and LCoE levels

PV technologies Market differentiation (2)

Added functionality/ special features will allow the development of new markets (incl. BIPV)

The niches of yesterday may become the GW-scale market segments of tomorrow

The broader picture: € vs ¥

SOPHIA Symposium – 22 01 2015 – Chambéry, FR

Thank you for your attention!