Post on 27-Mar-2015
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Quality-adjusted Output Measure for the Scottish Education System
Richard MurrayEconomic Adviser
Scottish Executive
Structure of Presentation
Section 1: Background– Structure of the Scottish Education System– Context for the work
Section 2: Quality-adjusted Output Index Section 3: Concluding Remarks
– Limitations of the New Measure– Summary
Section 1: Background
Structure of Scottish Education System
Different education system in Scotland compared with the rest of the UK
Primary education:– 7 years of education (P1 to P7)– 2,184 schools & 382,783 pupils
Secondary education:– 6 years of education (S1 to S6)– Compulsory to S4– 381 schools & 312,979 pupils
Structure of Scottish Education System
Comprehensive system Examinations sat in final three years of
secondary education (S4, S5 & S6) No national testing before S4
Context to this Work
Atkinson Review– Specific recommendations for education
Improve the way we record inputsMove towards an output-based approachDevelop measures to track changes in quality
of outputExtend coverage across whole of UK
Section 2: Quality-adjusted Output Index for Education
Rationale for Adjusting for Quality
Why adjust for quality?– To capture improvements in the education
pupils receive
How do you measure quality?– Ideally, the quality of teaching pupils receive– Difficult to measure this, though attainment
provides a useful proxy
Differentiating Output by Attainment
Aim to capture wide spectrum of attainment a pupil receives by end of secondary education
3 categories which capture all levels of attainment at school
Category 1 ISCED 3
Category 2 Between ISCED 2 & 3
Category 3 ISCED 2
Proportion of Pupils Gaining Qualifications
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f P
up
ils
Ga
inin
g Q
ua
lifi
ca
tio
ns
Category 1 Category 2 Category 3
Weighting the Different Levels of Attainment
Each category of attainment needs to be given a weight, relative to its contribution to total output
Inappropriate to use cost weights Expected future earnings provides a proxy
for the benefit pupils receive from education
Expected Future Earnings by Highest Qualification
Results show that higher qualifications lead to higher expected future earnings
Weightings of 48: 32: 20 for Categories 1: 2: 3
Expected future earnings =
Average earnings by highest qualification
Employment rate by highest qualification
X
Quality-adjusted Output Index
Methodology
Step 1: Differentiate S6 pupils by attainment
Step 2: Apply a weight (based on expected future earnings) to
the attainment categories
Step 3: Calculate the weighted total & convert to index
Quality-adjusted Output Index for Final Year of Secondary Education
Number of Pupils
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Category 1 18,486 18,583 18,479 18,494 18,315
Category 2 10,191 11,005 11,100 11,414 11,666
Category 3 28,203 28,024 28,079 28,870 28,531
Total Pupils in Cohort
59,250 60,138 59,998 61,035 60,447
Weighted Total
1,777,500 1,804,621 1,803,780 1,830,318 1,823,082
Output Index 98.5 100.0 100.0 101.4 101.0
Quality-adjusted Output for Education
Only measures the output of one year group (i.e. S6)
Apply the differentiated output across all pupils in primary & secondary education
This assumes quality will be the same for each year group
Quality-adjusted Output for Scottish Education System
Number of Pupils
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Category 1 213,402 210,277 207,859 204,239 201,522
Category 2 117,645 124,533 124,850 126,048 128,362
Category 3 325,575 317,116 315,838 318,829 313,922
Total Pupils in Cohort
683,980 680,507 674,867 674,056 665,090
Weighted Total (000s)
20,519 20,421 20,289 20,214 20,059
Output Index 100.5 100.0 99.4 99.0 98.2
What is driving the New Quality Adjusted Output Index?
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Quantity Quality Quality-adjusted Output
Pupils Gaining No Qualifications
Believe this group should not have a positive impact on the quality dimension of output
Still captured in the quantity dimension of the quality-adjusted output
Sensitivity Analysis
Examined different combinations of qualifications
Applied different weights by attributing part of the future earnings associated with those who go on to university
Overall, little impact on quality-adjusted output index
Section 3: Concluding Remarks
Limitations of New Measure
Unable to track changes in quality across each year group
Will take a number of years before investment influences the measure
Wider benefits of education are excluded Possibly not giving enough weight to high
attainment category
Summary
New Quality-adjusted output measure for Scottish Education system
Output is differentiated by attainment and weighted by expected future earnings
Output index has declined in recent years, driven by fall in pupil numbers