Post on 22-Dec-2015
transcript
RSlide 1 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Pre-Feasibility Study of a Blended HSR Service: CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee
Dr. Rapik Saat, Ph.D., PMPRail Transportation & Engineering Center (RailTEC)Department of Civil & Environmental EngineeringUniversity of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
9 July 2014CrossRail Celebratory LunchThe Museum of Broadcast Communications, Chicago, IL
RSlide 2 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Outline
• CrossRail conceptual vision
• Route alternatives
• Operation & maintenance cost
• Ridership target
• Capital cost
• Summary
RSlide 3 Preliminary & Subject to Change
CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee Conceptual Vision
• Improve the connectivity between the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign and Chicago (135 miles)
• Leverage high ridership between Chicago and Milwaukee
• Distance too short to attract HSR investment (75 miles)
• Blended service:• True HSR between Champaign and
University Park (max. 220mph)
• True HSR between Chicago and Milwaukee (max. 220mph)
• Shared operations within Chicago (existing average speed)
• Total length of 220 mile
RSlide 4 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Route AssumptionsChampaign(CHM)- University Park(UNIV)
• Three alternatives - Red: I-57 - Blue: US-45 and US-50 - Yellow: Existing Amtrak/CN line
• Potential available public land for I-57 and US-45/US-50 alternatives
• HSR construction and operation on the shared ROW with existing Amtrak/CN line is challenging
– Backbone of CN’s U.S. operation
• 40 minute estimated trip time
RSlide 5 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Route AssumptionsChicago Area
• Existing Metra services connected in Chicago area
- Purple: North Central Service (NCS) of Metra
- Pink: Metra Electric District (ME) of Metra
• Assume NCS and ME line connected at Chicago Union Station
• With no additional capital improvement express service takes– 60 minutes between University
Park and Downtown– 30 minutes between Downtown
and O’Hare Airport
RSlide 6 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Route AssumptionsO’Hare International Airport (ORD)- Milwaukee (MKE)
• Based on U of I class project results, there are three main alternatives between ORD and Milwaukee:
- Red: West alternative - Blue: Central alternative - Yellow: East alternative• Central alternative was identified
as the best alternative• Total length of selected route is 75
miles• 30 minute estimated trip time
RSlide 7 Preliminary & Subject to Change
HSR Feasibility Requirement #1:Can a HSR System Cover Its
Operating Cost?
RSlide 8 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Annual Operating and Maintenance Cost
Assumptions
14 trips each direction, 24 total trips per day
Schedule is same during the whole year
O&M cost standard is based on the California High Speed Rail study
Item Category Unit Cost($)Unit/Yr Quantity Total($)
ATrain Operations and Maintenance 20Train-Mile 2,248,400 44,968,000
B Maintenance of Infrastructure 200,000Route Mile 220 44,000,000
C Stations 2,000,000Station 6 12,000,000
D Insurance 25,000,000Lump Sum 1 25,000,000
E Administration and Support 10% x (Items A-D) 12,596,800
F Contingency 10% x (Items A-E) 13,856,480
Total 152,421,280
If the average ticket price is $30, 5 million annual ridership is needed to cover the O&M cost
RSlide 9 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Estimated Existing Annual RidershipCity Pair Amtrak Airline
Chicago-Milwaukee 800,000a 6,525,181c
Chicago-Champaign 100,000b 140,000d
Champaign KankakeeDupage-
Cook
Kenosha-Racine-
Wilwaukee
Champaign - 19,240 165,100 8,320
Kankakee 48,620 - 1,425,580 2,860
Dupage-Cook
189,800 297,180 - 390,780
Kenosha-Racine-
Wilwaukee0 27,820 1,404,000 -
TOTAL 3,979,300
Sources:a. Wikipediab. MWHSR Transystem Studyc. MKE Airport Total Annual Passengers in 2013d. Estimated, based on 2013 CMI enplanements and ratio of ORD vs DFW flightse. U.S. Census – Department of Commerce (Commuting – Journey to Work Data)
Journey to Work Surveye
RSlide 10 Preliminary & Subject to Change
The largest risk in the initial phase of a HSR implementation is
ridership forecast
RSlide 11 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Two Approaches of Ridership Forecast
Total demand
Disaggregated
Survey of preference
Traffic Diversion as a result of simulation of
sample
Aggregated
Mathematical representation of the
demand behavior
Explanation of the present market shares
(Calibration)
Time value
New Time value (HSR)
Future ridership volume (no HSR)
Diverted
Income/ population forecast
Introduction of HSR
Induced
RSlide 12 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Research Need: Advanced Ridership Study• Improved ridership study to estimate system’s profitability
• Use aggregated ridership forecast approach instead of survey
• Getting auto ridership data is key to identify diverted HSR ridership from highways
– Key to forecast accuracy
– Opportunity: Acquire cellphone data
RSlide 13 Preliminary & Subject to Change
HSR Feasibility Requirement #1:Can a HSR System Cover Its
Operating Cost?
If the average ticket price is $30, 5 million annual ridership is needed to cover the O&M cost. This can be achieved for example by realigning the
synergy between ORD-MKE airports.
RSlide 14 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Research Need: HSR Roles & Synergies with Airports/Airlines
• HSR can potentially improve air transportation
• Short-haul air travel (less than 500 miles) could be replaced with HSR
• Landing and takeoff slots at congested airports could be freed up for long-haul flights
• HSR as a feeder to long-haul flights
• Integrated multi-airport operation (e.g. ORD-MKE airports) could provide positive redundancy to improve service resiliency and reduced delays
Source: Clewlow, R.R.L., J.M. Sussman, H. Balakrishnan (2012). Interaction of HSR and Aviation: Exploring Air-Rail Connectivity. Transportation Research Record: Journal of Transportation Research Board, No. 2266, pp. 1-10)
• HSR-Airline collaborations are common in Europe
• How can at least half of the 6.5 million annual passengers at MKE Airport be streamlined to use ORD and vice-versa with less than 30-min ORD-MKE HSR connection?
RSlide 15 Preliminary & Subject to Change
HSR Feasibility Requirement #2:Can a HSR System Cover Its
Capital Cost?
RSlide 16 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Capital Cost
Routes Distance(mile)
Capital Cost (billion)
Cost per Mile (million)
MKE-ORD 97 $5.1 $53
ORD-UNIV 37 $1.0 $21
UNIV-CHM 75 $5.5 $73
Assumptions• True High Speed Rail Routes
Based on the IDOT 220 project and U of I class project to determine capital cost and cost per mile for Champaign-University Park, Milwaukee-O’Hare routes
• Metra Express$1B investment mainly to connect the existing Metra Electric District (ME) with North Central Service (NCS) through Chicago Union Station
RSlide 17 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Research Need: Engineering Route and Environmental Impact Analyses
• Identify preliminary alignment and design
• Verify publicly-available right-of-ways
• Capital cost estimation
• Evaluate environmental impacts
RSlide 18 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Summary• CrossRail Champaign-Chicago-Milwaukee is expected to be
operationally profitable
• Further studies needed:
– Ridership forecast
– HSR roles and synergies with airports and airlines
– Engineering route and environmental impact analyses
– Economic impact and financial analyses
• Planning is a long-term effort
– e.g. Illinois was “shovel-ready” to receive federal HSR funding in 2008 because the vision started as early as early 1990s and completed EIS in 2003
– Investment-grade planning analysis and state commitment (e.g. public land availability) could attract investors keen to showcase their HSR technologies and enter U.S. market
RSlide 19 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Thank you! Questions?
RSlide 20 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Appendix
RSlide 21 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Cities Along CrossRail RouteChicago The most populous city in Midwest and third most populous city in the U.S with 9,522,434 metro population.
An international hub for finance, commerce, industry, technology, telecommunications, and transportation, with O’Hare International Airport being the second-busiest airport in the world; it also has the largest number of U.S. highways, and railroad freight entering its region
GDP of metro area is 585,900 million dollars(2013)
RSlide 22 Preliminary & Subject to Change
Cities Along CrossRail Route
Milwaukee Largest city in the U.S. state of Wisconsin with 1,566,981 metro population. It is main cultural and economic center of the Milwaukee-Racine-Waukesha Metropolitan Area with a population of 2,037,542 as of an official 2012 estimate
GDP of metro area is 88,708 million dollars(2013)
Champaign
Champaign is the fourth-most populous city in the state outside of the Chicago Metropolitan area. It is notable for sharing the campus of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign with its sister city of Urbana. Champaign is also the home of Parkland College which serves about 18,000 students during the academic year. Metro population of Champaign is 231,891