RCC Event

Almaty,

Kazakhstan,

16th. Sep. 2011

Dr.Cengiz EvciAlcatel-Lucent, FRANCE

- Member of WP5D IMT.UPDATERegion 1 Workshop Co-ordinationteam

- Editor of IMT.UPDATE within ITU-R WP5D

- UMTS Forum:Chairman of Manufacturer Sector Group

2) New developments

4) ITU-R actions and next steps

Perspectives on future Mobile Broadband:IMT for the Next Decade

1) IMT history

3) Mobile Broadband traffic & markets

Sources:Presentation: Spectrum considerations for global broadband access; Colin Langtry, Chief, ITU-R Study Groups Dept.;Presentation: Introduction to ITU-R WP5D Regional Workshop (Region 3), Kyu-Jin WEE ,Ph.D, Vice-Chairman, ITU-R WP5Dhttp://groups.itu.int/rsg5-forum/SG5Portal/RegionalWorkshopsIMTfortheNextDecade/AsiaPacificWorkshop/Presentations.aspxPresentation in ECC (June 2011): Perspectives on future Mobile Broadband, Peter Scheele, BNetzA.Presentation in CPG (28th. June 2011) : The same title, Rauno Ruismaki, Nokia

IMT history

1

Radio history:Maxwell equation: 1865

Marconi/Popov radio communication: ~1900

Radio broadcasting: ~1920

TV broadcasting: ~1931

Satellite: 1957

Cellular mobile communication: ~1981

1 IMT history

W(A)RC history:WARC Mar Maritime Mobile Service (Geneva, 1967)WARC- 68 Aeronautical Mobile Service

WARC-71 Space TelecommunicationsWMARC-74 World Maritime Administrative Radio ConferenceWARC SAT-77 World Broadcasting -Satellite Administrative Radio ConferenceWARC-Aer2 Aeronautical Mobile (R) Services (Geneva, 1978)WARC-79 Overall Revision of RR (Sep.24 – Dec. 6)

WARC Mob-83 Mobile ServiceWARC HFBC-84 Planning HF BroadcastingWARC Orb-85 Geostationary Satellite OrbitWARC HFBE-87 HF BroadcastingWARC Mob-87 Mobile Service (Maritime and Aeronautical), Rec.205 (FPLMTS)WARC-88 Geostationary Satellite Orbit Future Public Land Mobile

WARC-92 IMT-2000(FPLMTS) Telecommunications System

WRC-95 Simplified Radio Regulations, SatelliteWRC-97 Satellite systems, HAPS, HF BroadcastingWRC-2000 Additional IMT-2000 spectrumWRC-03 Satellite systems, GNSS, ESVs, HFWRC-07 IMT (IMT-2000 & IMT-Advanced)

1 IMT historyRed ones are for specific applications

� Over the last century, certain topics became

popular and were treated at WRCs

� Most of them influenced economy and social

life significantly at that time

� There was a time for maritime, broadcasting

and satellite, cellular

���� now mobile broadband is the hot topic

1 IMT history - observations

RESOLUTION ITU-R 56

Naming for International

Mobile Telecommunications

(2007)

• IMT-2000 Direct Spread

(WCDMA/UTRA FDD) (1999)

• IMT-2000 Multi Carrier

(CDMA2000) (1999)

• IMT-2000 Time Code

(UTRA TDD, TD-SCDMA) (1999)

• IMT-2000 Single Carrier TDMA

(UWC-136) (1999)

• IMT-2000 Frequency Time

(DECT+) (1999)

• IMT-2000 OFDMA TDD WMAN

(Mobile WiMAX) (2007)

• LTE-Advanced

• WirelessMAN-Advanced

ITU-R M.1457: Detailed specifications of the

terrestrial radio interfaces of International Mobile

Telecommunications-2000 (IMT-2000)

ITU-R M.[IMT.RSPEC]: Detailed specifications of the

terrestrial radio interfaces of International Mobile

Telecommunications-Advanced (IMT-Advanced)

1 IMT history Standards

1 IMT history - IMT-Advanced

1 IMT history - IMT spectrum (WARC-92, WRC-2000, WRC-07)

New developments

2

� While voice traffic on mobile networks is

growing at a relatively constant rate, there is

a very rapid increase in the volume of data

traffic

� This increase is being accelerated by the

introduction of new types of devices

(smartphones, tablets and dongles) and

new mobile applications

2 New developments - challenges:

� The amount of spectrum identified for IMT

at WRC-07 did not meet the estimated (by

ITU studies) amount of spectrum required by

year 2020

� Furthermore, many of the estimates done

prior WRC-07 for mobile traffic were too

conservative

2 New developments - challenges:

� New type of devices, such as smart phones,

dongles, tablets

� Mobile Internet usage is increasing

� Huge increase in mobile applications

� Video traffic is growing dramatically

2 New developments - trends contributing to increased demand for mobile broadband (1/2):

� Several Policy initiatives to promote mobile

broadband

� Cost reduction and price decrease

� Media rich social networks go mobile

� Machine-to-Machine traffic is growing

rapidly

2 New developments - trends contributing to increased demand for mobile broadband (2/2):

Mobile Broadband traffic & markets

3

Source: Cisco report (Feb 2011)

3 Dramatic growth of mobile traffic

1 Gigabyte = 1,000 Megabytes

1 Terabyte = 1,000 Gigabytes

1 Petabyte = 1,000 Terabytes = 1,000,000 Gigabytes

1 Exabyte = 1,000 Petabytes = 1,000,000 Terabyte

~ 6x~ 6x

3 Dramatic traffic growth in some European counties

Source: CEPT ECC PT1 (2011)1 Gigabyte = 1,000 Megabytes

1 Terabyte = 1,000 Gigabytes

1 Petabyte = 1,000 Terabytes = 1,000,000 Gigabytes

1 Exabyte = 1,000 Petabytes = 1,000,000 Terabyte

3 Dramatic traffic growth in some European counties

Source: CEPT ECC PT1 (2011)

3 Dramatic traffic growth in some European counties

Source: CEPT ECC PT1 (2011)

Country Date Mobile broadband traffic per day per subscr

Sweden 2009 61 MBFinland 2H 2009 61 MBHungary June 2010 45 MBDenmark 2H 2009 43 MBAustria Q4 2009 42 MBIreland Q1 2010 42 MBIceland 2H 2009 31 MBEstonia Q1 2010 18 MBCroatia 2H 2010 16 MB

Slovakia n/a 15 MBGermany 2009 4.8 MB

Netherlands 2H 2009 2.3 MBMalta Q1 2010 0.5 MB

GSMA/Telia Sonera November 2010

12 MB (average smartphones)

167 MB(3G modem)

500 MB(LTE user)

3 Continuous growth of subscribtions globally

> 1 billion> 1 billion

Estimates for global mobile traffic 2010 - 2015

Discrepancies in forecasts partly attributable to d iffering assumptions on Wi-Fi offloading

3 Market estimates indicate strong growth to continue :

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Tot

al T

raff

ic (

Ter

abyt

es/m

onth

)

Cisco

Alcatel-Lucent

ABI Research (2011)

Nokia Siemens Netw orks

Ericsson

UMTS Forum

Analysys Mason

Informa Telecoms & Media

Yankee Group

Coda Research

Morgan Stanley

Averages

~22 MB/day/subscriber~22 MB/day/subscriber(for 6 billion subscribers)(for 6 billion subscribers)

Estimates for global mobile traffic 2010 - 2020

3 Market estimates indicate strong growth to continue :

~50 MB/day/subscriber~50 MB/day/subscriber(for 7 billion subscribers)(for 7 billion subscribers)

1 Gigabyte = 1,000 Megabytes

1 Terabyte = 1,000 Gigabytes

1 Petabyte = 1,000 Terabytes = 1,000,000 Gigabytes

1 Exabyte = 1,000 Petabytes = 1,000,000 Terabyte

Estimates prior to WRC-07 3

1 Gigabyte = 1,000 Megabytes

1 Terabyte = 1,000 Gigabytes

1 Petabyte = 1,000 Terabytes = 1,000,000 Gigabytes

1 Exabyte = 1,000 Petabytes = 1,000,000 Terabyte

Estimates prior to WRC-07 3

Note: Actual Global Mobile Traffic from CISCO report (“Cisco Visual

Networking Index: Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast Update,

2010–2015”, Feb 2011), for year 2010: 237 petabytes/month=

237 000 terabytes/month=

2,844,000 terabytes/year

3 Many estimates prior WRC-07 were too conservative

1 Gigabyte = 1,000 Megabytes

1 Terabyte = 1,000 Gigabytes

1 Petabyte = 1,000 Terabytes = 1,000,000 Gigabytes

1 Exabyte = 1,000 Petabytes = 1,000,000 Terabyte

3T

hese

est

imat

es p

rior

WR

C-

07 w

ere

unde

r-es

timat

ed.

Recent actual figures of m

obile

data traffic from E

CC

/PT

1

ITU-R M.2072(UMTS Forum)Estimates from 2005

Estimate for 2012 28 MBEstimate for 2020 495 MB

Country Date Mobile broadband traffic per day per subscriber

Sweden 2009 61 MBFinland 2H 2009 61 MBHungary June 2010 45 MBDenmark 2H 2009 43 MBAustria Q4 2009 42 MBIreland Q1 2010 42 MBIceland 2H 2009 31 MBEstonia Q1 2010 18 MBCroatia 2H 2010 16 MB

Slovakia n/a 15 MBGermany 2009 4.8 MB

Netherlands 2H 2009 2.3 MBMalta Q1 2010 0.5 MB

GSMA/Telia Sonera November 2010

12 MB (average smartphones)

167 MB(3G modem)

500 MB(LTE user)

Many estimates prior WRC-07 were too conservative

4ITU-R actions – next steps:

� Many involved parties (governments,

operators, manufacturers, researchers) have

analyzed the available data

4 ITU-R actions – next steps:

� All involved parties have realized, that the

gap between estimated and real figures is

tremendous

� It is widely known, that there is a long time

needed for:

o identifying suitable spectrum at the international level

o making the spectrum available at the national level (auctions, authorisations…)

o deploying networks

4 ITU-R actions – next steps:

IMT Spectrum cycles:

WARC-92 WRC-2000 WRC-07 WRC-20xy

7-8 years 7-8 years 7-8 years

2 GHz

800/900 MHz, 1.8 GHz, 2.6 GHz

450 MHz, 700/800 MHz,

2.3 GHz, 3.5 GHz

4

� ITU-R is currently developing a new ITU-R

Report “Analysis and assessment of global

broadband wireless services and

marketplace for IMT”

� ITU-R is holding a series of regional

workshops in the year 2011 to support this

work

4 ITU-R actions – next steps:

The new ITU-R Report and the workshops

intend to:

- assess the current trends and perspectives of the

mobile broadband

- refresh the vision and market forecasts for IMT

- develop new traffic forecasts for 2012-2022

- address the possible evolution of the IMT-Advanced

technologies

4 ITU-R actions – next steps:

ITU-R actions – next steps:4

4

ITU Regions, regional organisations:4

http://groups.itu.int/Default.aspx?tabid=1477

ITU-R webpage for the workshops:4