Post on 29-Jan-2021
transcript
RDEIR/SDEIS Traffic Forecasting
Key Assumptions Update presented to the
Technical Advisory Committee
August 21, 2013
Traffic Forecasting Assumptions
• RDEIR/SDEIS Planning Horizon Year
• Socio-Economic Inputs
• No Build Definition
• Multimodal Assumptions
• Goods Movement Assumptions
(Today’s Focus)
2
Outline of Presentation
• Definition of Terms
• Overview of I-710 Modeling Assumptions
• Types of Truck Trips in the I-710 Traffic
Forecasting
• Key assumptions and what has changed
since previous DEIR forecasts
3
What is a TEU?
• Twenty-foot Equivalent Unit (TEU):
– Measure of ports containerized cargo
volume
• One twenty-foot container = 1 TEU
• One forty-foot container = 2 TEUs
• 1.8 TEUs per container
– 80% of the containers are 40 feet in length
and 20% are 20 feet in length
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Marine Containers: 20 foot and 40 foot
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What is a Lift?
• Railyard demand and capacity are
measured in “Lifts” – counts the number of times a container or trailer is
lifted and placed onto or off of a railcar
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Domestic and Marine Containers
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Truck Bobtail and Chassis
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Elements of Goods Movement:
Port Primary Container Trips
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Near-Dock (< 5 miles)
and Off-Dock Railyards
Warehouse, Transload Facility,
or other destination
On-Dock
Rail*
(no truck
trips)
2035 Forecast:
110,000 Daily Truck Trips
*Inland Point Intermodal (IPI) - the movement of “intact”
marine containers by rail
What is Transloading?
• Transloading
– Direct transfer of products from 40-foot marine containers to 53-
foot domestic containers or wheeled trailers
• Cross-docking
– transfer occurs within 24 hours of the marine container’s arrival at
the transload center
– Cargo in three 40-foot high-cubed marine containers can fit into
two 53-foot domestic containers or wheeled trailers
• Inland Point Intermodal (IPI)
– movement of “intact” marine containers by rail without any
transloading of the cargo
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Elements of Goods Movement:
Transload Truck Trips
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Off-dock Railyard
Transload Facility
Warehouse or Distribution Center
Port Primary Truck Trips:
2035 Forecast:
17,000 Daily Truck Trips
Elements of Goods Movement:
Domestic Intermodal Truck Trips (Not Port-Related)
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Intermodal Railyard
(Off-Dock)
Warehouse,
manufacturing,
etc.
2035 Forecast:
14,000 Daily Study Area
Truck Trips
Elements of Goods Movement:
Domestic Non-Intermodal Truck Trips (Not Port-Related)
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Warehouse,
manufacturing,
retail, etc.
Warehouse,
manufacturing,
retail, etc.
2035 Forecast:
172,000 Daily Truck Trips
(I-710 Study Area)
I-710 RDEIR Goods Movement
Assumptions for: – Port cargo volume
– Rail/truck mode shares
– Inclusion of SCIG & ICTF railyards in
No Build and Build alternatives
– Activity by intermodal yards
– TSM/TDM/ITS for Goods Movement
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Current I-710 Modeling Assumptions
• Lower Port container forecast for 2035
• Better understanding of goods movement travel
markets (imports, exports, empties, transloading, rail
and truck mode shares)
• Separate estimates of components of cargo
movement that generate truck trips
• Current and future locations of warehouses and
transload facilities
• SCIG and ICTF improvements
• Revised projections of intermodal railyard demand
and capacity
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Types of Truck Trips in the I-710
Traffic Forecasts
• Container Truck Trips
– Port Primary Truck Trips (origin or destination at the ports,
includes trips to/from near and off-dock railyards, transload
facilities and other warehouses or distribution centers)
– Port Secondary Transload Truck Trips*
(from warehouses to both railyards and other warehouses)
– Domestic Intermodal Trips* (to/from railyards)
– Domestic Non-Intermodal Trips*
• Non-Container Truck Trips
– Port Non-Container Truck Trips* (e.g., car carriers, bulk
products, specialized cargo)
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* Not separately forecast in previous I-710 DEIR model
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Base Year (2012)
No Project (2035)
Build Alternatives
(2035)
Prior I-710 DEIR
(2035)
14.1 41.4 41.4 43.2
Same assumptions for I-710 and Gateway Cities COG Strategic Transportation
Plan (STP) traffic studies
Ports Container Cargo Assumptions
Annual TEUs* (millions)
* TEU = Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit of Cargo
Ports Primary Daily Truck Trips
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Container Truck Trips (2-way)
Total Truck Trips (2-way)
Base Year (2012)
No Project (2035)
Build Alternatives
(2035)
Prior I-710 DEIR
(2035)
49,000 110,000 110,000 118,000
Base Year (2012)
No Project (2035)
Build Alternatives
(2035)
Prior I-710 DEIR
(2035)
55,000 116,000 116,000 124,000
Heavy Duty Truck Trips
Heavy Duty Truck Trips per Day
Year 2035
(I-710 Study Area) New Model
Previous
I-710 DEIR
Model
Port Primary Container Related
Bobtail 31,000
Chassis 11,000
Container 62,000
Subtotal Container Related 104,000
Port Non-Container 6,000
Port Primary 110,000 117,000
Secondary Transload 17,000*
78,000 Domestic Intermodal 14,000*
Domestic Non-Intermodal 78,000*
TOTAL 219,000 195,000
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* Not forecast separately in previous I-710 DEIR model
Port Containerized Cargo Volume by Market (Millions of Annual TEUs)
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* Loaded container to and from Southern California market ** Includes transload to rail and transload to truck
Port Cargo By Market 2012
(Base
Year)
Prior I-710
DEIR
2035
Prior I-710
DEIR Ratio
(2035/2012) New 2035
New Ratio
(2035/2012)
Loaded On-Dock 3.2 11.2 3.5 10.8 3.4
Loaded Near and Off-
Dock 1.5 3.5 2.3 3.4 2.2
Loaded True Local * 3.2 Not
separated
Not
separated
4.6 1.4
Loaded Transload ** 2.9 9.3 3.2
True Local+Transload 6.1 16.7 2.7 13.9 2.3
Empties 3.3 11.8 3.5 13.3 4.0
Total 14.1 43.2 3.1 41.4 2.9
Intermodal Rail Yards
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Hobart (BNSF)
LATC (UP)
East LA (UP)
ICTF (UP)
SCIG (BNSF)*
City of Industry (UP)
San Bernardino
(BNSF)
Eastern (Off Map):
* Proposed
On-Dock Yards
North End:
South End:
SCIG/ICTF Assumptions for RDEIR/SDEIS
• SCIG RDEIR certified by POLA Harbor
Commission March 7, 2013 and by LA City
Council on May 8, 2013
• ICTF DEIR for public circulation in 2014
• I-710 RDEIR/SDEIS to include SCIG and
improved ICTF in 2035 No Build and Build
Alternatives
– Sensitivity test will be conducted without SCIG or
ICTF improvements
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Intermodal Rail Yards Assumptions: Demand
Millions of Annual Lifts*
North: LATC, ELA, Hobart South: ICTF, SCIG, On-dock Eastern: COI, SB
* Includes marine containers (Inland Point Intermodal), port transload containers, and
domestic containers
Yards 2012
2035 W/O SCIG
and ICTF
Improvements
2035 W/SCIG
and ICTF
Improvements
Difference
North End 1.6 5.0 3.8 -1.2
South End 2.4 7.7 9.0 +1.3
Eastern 0.7 1.3 1.2 -0.1
Total 4.7 14.0 14.0 0.0
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Intermodal Rail Yards Assumptions: Capacity
* 0.8 Million not needed if SCIG Built
Millions of Annual Lifts
2012 2035 W/SCIG and
ICTF Improvements
North End 2.7 5.2
LATC 0.3 0.9
ELA 0.7 1.3
Hobart 1.7 3.0*
South End 3.6 9.9
ICTF 0.8 1.5
SCIG 0.0 1.5
On-Dock 2.8 6.9
Eastern 0.9 1.7
COI 0.2 1.0
SB 0.7 0.7
Total 7.2 16.8
Warehouse and Transload Locations in
Gateway Cities
25 Warehouses (orange and blue dots) and Transload
Facilities (black dots)
Time of Day Distribution of
Port Containerized Truck Trips
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Base Year
(2012)*
No Project
(2035)
Prior I-710
DEIR
(2035)
Build
Alternatives
(2035)
Day Shift
(8 am to 6 pm)
54% POLA
56% POLB 60% 60% 60%
Second Shift
(6 pm to 3 am)
44% POLA
44% POLB 20% 20% 20%
Hoot Shift
(3 am to 8 am)
2% POLA
0% POLB 20% 20% 20%
*Varies by terminal (rounded)
Next Steps
• Complete traffic forecasting model
validation
• 2035 No Build Traffic Forecast
• Alternative 6C Modified Traffic Forecast
• Alternative 6D Traffic Forecast
• Reassess alternatives
• Present Findings
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