Post on 15-Aug-2015
transcript
28 www.spionline.com.au february 2012
In a patchwork property market, investors need to pick their investment targets carefully if they are to ensure solid growth over the long term.
There are still plenty of suburbs across Australia that are primed for growth, but pinpointing them is never easy. With the help of the most respected investment specialists, property commentators and analysts,
Smart Property Investment has identified the 50 suburbs likely to represent the best buying opportunities in 2012 – and beyond
Smart ProPerty InveStment ’S Inaugural
FaSt 50
expert panelhroughout 2011 the residential property market remained flat, with
pockets of growth peppered throughout the nation.
Experts have predicted that 2012 will see a similar level of activity across the board.
However, with the help of a dedicated team of leading property experts with decades of experience between them, Smart Property Investment has uncovered the Fast 50 suburbs and towns where capital growth is expected to accelerate in 2012 and beyond.
Our experts used a range of metrics to identify their hotspots including population growth, demand for housing, income levels, employment, vacancy rates, previous capital growth and current gross rental yields.
New South Wales was the most popular state with 18 hotspots, Queensland received 11, Western Australia came in close behind with 10, Victoria received four, South Australia received six locations and the Australia Capital Territory received one, with Canberra.
The resources boomtowns in Queensland and WA make up a significant portion of the report, where a number of experts have flagged the same suburb or region for growth.
By far the standout town was Gladstone, which was recommended by three out of our seven experts.
In NSW, much attention has been paid to regional centres such as Bathurst and Mudgee, with entry level prices expected to increase in the short term. Western Sydney has also received a high level of recommendations.
In South Australia the suburbs within the City of Onkaparinga, south of the Adelaide CBD, made three out of the six predicted hotspots for the state.
Smart Property Investment would like to thank Luke Berry, Louis Christopher, Todd Hunter, Helen Collier‑Kogtevs, Margaret Lomas, Terry Ryder, Andrew Wilson and RP Data for their contribution to the Fast 50.
february 2012 www.spionline.com.au 29
Terry Ryder
Todd Hunter
Margaret Lomas
Andrew Wilson
Helen Collier-Kogtevs
Luke Berry
louis christopher
about the data
Terry Ryder has been involved in real estate since 1981 as an investor, researcher and writer. He has accumulated three decades of experience as a journalist, author and researcher specialising in residential property and is the author of four books on residential real estate and a property writer for newspapers, magazines and websites.
wHeregroup director and location researcher Todd Hunter began his career in 2002 as a mortgage broker for Aussie. With over 10 years’ experience in housing finance under his belt, he has since gone on to become an independent mortgage broker and professional buyers’ agent, where he excels in predicting growth areas ahead of time.
PIPA chair and Destiny Financial Solutions founder Margaret Lomas is a best-selling author. She produces and hosts her own popular TV program for property investors on Sky News Business. As co-founder of Destiny Financial Solutions, Margaret oversees a property investment advisory and education business.
Dr Andrew Wilson is senior economist for Fairfax-owned Australian Property Monitors and is a regular contributor to Smart Property Investment. He has previously held senior property and construction research positions within industry, academia and government. Dr Wilson provides regular market commentary.
Real Wealth Australia managing director Helen Collier-Kogtevs is one of the most educated minds in Australian property investment and has dedicated herself to teaching others through workshops and mentoring programs. Real Wealth Australia is a corporate member of Property Investment Professionals of Australia (PIPA).
NextHotSpot director Luke Berry regularly completes in-depth analyses of projected capital growth and sales statistics, planned infrastructure, and tenant profiling when locating hotspots. He is so confident in his choices for 2012 that he has developed property in some of his hotspots, including Whyalla, Gladstone and Gunnedah.
SQM Research founder Louis Christopher is one of the most recognised and respected property analysts in Australia. He provides regular market reports through SQM Research, an independent property advisory and forecasting research house that specialises in providing accurate property-related advice, research and data.
FaSt 50
Some suburbs do not include a unit price, while others may not include a median rental yield. Please note, where a data field is marked ‘SNR’ (‘statistically non‑reliable’) this indicates the location does not have the volume of properties to generate an accurate statistic.
30 www.spionline.com.au february 2012
Bathurst / Margaret Lomas Blacktown / Louis Christopher Goulburn / Margaret Lomas
Median price: $275,000 (H); $215,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 34,303 Location: a regional city approx. 200km
west of Sydney
Median price: $376,000 (H); $285,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 6% (U)
Population: 39,000 Location: Western Sydney, approx. 34km
west of the Sydney CBD
Median price: $265,000 (H); $185,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 20,127 Location: a provincial city approx. 195km
from Sydney and 90km from Canberra
This one has been on my list for a year now –and it’s staying there. The best buys exist in suburbs like Kelso, with buy in prices around the early $200,000 mark and rental yields of 6.5 per cent. The strong educational base, diverse industry and proximity to Orange and the health and mining spin-off from that town make for great buying right now.
STRONG, DIVERSE ECONOMY TRANSPORT LINKS/RISING INCOMES POLICE ACADEMY/DIVERSE jOBS
The Western Sydney hub of Blacktown has a good ratio of income to house prices, with income growth rising quickly due to changes in the demographics. Vacancy rates are currently at just 1.1 per cent, making it an attractive offer for investors. The suburb is on the CityRail’s Western and Blue Mountains lines and close to the M7 and M4 motorways.
Within easy driving distance of both Canberra and Sydney, Goulburn is a safe haven with the Police Academy in situ. It offers a great lifestyle, low buy-in prices with 6.5 per cent yields, diverse employment opportunities and low vacancies. This one may experience some positive investor sentiment which will boost values in the short term.
Key Growth driver Key Growth driver Key Growth driver
01 02 03
Gosford
Newcastle
Sydney
07
04
09
1808
03
0115
5km15km
30km40km
Sydney
Gosford
13
02
1011
1617
14
12
05
06
New South Wales
New South Wales
FAST 50
february 2012 www.spionline.com.au 31
Gunnedah / Luke Berry
Moree / Terry Ryder
Lapstone / Louis Christopher
Mudgee / Luke Berry
Liverpool / Louis Christopher
Muswellbrook / Terry Ryder
Median price: $258,000 (H); $237,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); 6% (U)
Population: 7,542 Location: a country town in northeast
NSW, approx. 75km from Tamworth
Median price: $202,500 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 8,083 Location: far north NSW near the
Queensland border
Median price: $463,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: SNR (H); SNR (U)
Population: 854 Location: on eastern escarpment of the Blue
Mountains, approx. 60km from Sydney CBD
Median price: $315,760 (H); $250,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); 6% (U)
Population: 8,249 Location: a town in central west NSW,
approx. 270km northwest of Sydney
Median price: $400,000 (H); $250,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 6% (U)
Population: 21,000 Location: southwest Sydney, approx.
32km from the Sydney CBD
Median price: $285,000 (H); $285,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 16,676 Location: the Upper Hunter Valley
approx. 130km northwest of Newcastle
The Gunnedah Basin has significantly more coal than the Hunter Valley, and is the future of the coal mining industry in NSW. Well-rounded local economies can boast some of the best saleyards in the country for beef and lamb, as well as wheat and wool, complementing the centre of Australia’s cotton industry. Housing scarcity, job creation and long-term industry make these towns very appealing.
Narrabri, Gunnedah and Moree are strong regional towns in the northwest of NSW which thrive on agriculture and tourism. There is growing resources activity in the region and the prospect of new rail links into Queensland and a $1 billion solar power station. Rents are already strong in these towns and prices are expected to follow, particularly given their current level of affordability.
INDUSTRY
NEW RAIL LINKS
LOW VACANCY RATES
POPULATION GROWTH
LOCATION/TRANSPORT
MINING/INFRASTRUCTURE
Lapstone, a small village at the base of the Blue Mountains, enjoys close proximity to Penrith from where there are regular trains to the Sydney CBD. The suburb has a good ratio of income to house prices. Vacancy rate is currently 0 per cent. That’s right – there are no vacancies in this suburb.
With a possible six resources projects opening up in the next three to five years in the Mid-Western Shire, and around 2,000 new jobs to add to the existing 11,000, Mudgee expects its population to grow by around 6,000 – or 25 per cent – over that time. Affordable, with median house pricing around $300,000, it’s a lovely place to visit and to live, so local tourism is also on the up.
With a large population and vacancy rates of just 1.4 per cent, along with affordable house and unit prices, Liverpool is seeing a lot of interest from investors right now. The suburb has a good ratio of incomes to house prices and is on four CityRail lines.
The Hunter Valley, west of Newcastle, has been one of the growth economies of 2011. The region is characterised by wine, horses, tourism and mining, with impetus stemming from construction of the $1 billion Hunter Expressway. Coal mining is expanding, coal seam gas is emerging and the world’s biggest coal export port (Newcastle) is also expanding. Expect price growth in towns like Muswellbrook, Maitland and Singleton.
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
04
07
05
08 09
06
New South Wales
Neutral Bay / Louis Christopher
Richmond / Louis Christopher
Penrith / Louis Christopher
Rosemeadow / Todd Hunter
Pyrmont / Louis Christopher
San Remo / Todd Hunter
Median price: $1,460,000 (H); $586,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 3% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 10,277 Location: a harbourside suburb, approx.
5km north of the Sydney CBD
Median price: $370,000 (H); $305,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 5,560 Location: northwest Sydney, approx.
63km from the Sydney CBD
Median price: $335,000 (H); $247,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 6% (U)
Population: 11,396 Location: Western Sydney, approx. 50km
from the Sydney CBD
Median price: $312,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 7,400 Location: the Macarthur region, approx.
56km southwest of Sydney
Median price: $823,000 (H); $658,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 4% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 11,088 Location: inner-city suburb 2km from the
Sydney CBD
Median price: $255,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 4,014 Location: the Central Coast region,
approx. 17km northeast of Wyong
Neutral Bay is a harbourside suburb that has many prestige properties heavily discounted and ripe for the picking if the economy picks up in 2012. Plus, there are many more affordable apartments in the suburb that are experiencing above average rental growth, yet are also being discounted. One to watch.
Richmond is located north of Penrith, at the foot of the Blue Mountains, in the local government area of the City of Hawkesbury. Vacancy rates are at just 1.4 per cent and incomes are growing quickly. Housing is cheap relative to current incomes. The suburb is on the rail line and offers a semi-rural lifestyle just outside the main suburban centre.
DISCOUNTING/HARBOURSIDE SUBURB
GROWING INCOMES
INCOME TO HOUSE PRICE RATIO
STRONG RENTS
LIMITED DISCOUNTING
HIGH POPULATION
Like many of its surrounding suburbs, Penrith has a notably low vacancy rate, at just 0.6 per cent. The suburb also has one of Sydney’s best income to house price ratios and like Blacktown, is on CityRail’s Western and Blue Mountains lines and close to the M7 and M4 motorways. Median prices are still at affordable levels but on the rise. A good, safe option for investors.
Due to high population growth, rents have increased dramatically in the past few years and will continue to do so in 2012, with new first home owners not now exempt from stamp duty on existing accommodation. Potential first home owners will continue to rent, putting pressure on rental properties and as a result, rents will continue to increase sharply. This will drive investors back to this market. St Helens Park, Ambarvale and Eagle Vale will also see benefit here.
New multi-storey developments for this harbourside inner-city suburb seem to be a thing of the past and we believe the discount that Pyrmont offers – compared with other harbourside suburbs – will eventually evaporate. Its proximity to the CBD and surrounding suburbs make it an ideal option for investors considering buying in the inner city.
The Wyong region has had a high population for some time, with suburbs like Charmhaven and Bluehaven now well-established suburbs. With San Remo across the road, those property buyers who cannot afford the higher prices of Charmhaven and Bluehaven will look to San Remo as a more affordable location and carry out renovations to established properties. San Remo is already starting to take on a new look.
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
10
13
11
14 15
12
New South Wales
32 www.spionline.com.au february 2012
FAST 50
34 www.spionline.com.au february 2012
Hervey Bay
Mackay
Townsville
Brisbane
Gladstone
19
24
21
22
27 20
2623
queensland
Seven Hills / Margaret Lomas Thornleigh / Louis Christopher Wickham / Luke Berry
Median price: $420,000 (H); $357,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 6% (U)
Population: 18,025 Location: approx. 34km west of the
Sydney CBD
Median price: $675,000 (H); $607,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 4% (H); 4% (U)
Population: 7,505 Location: approx. 25km northwest of
Sydney CBD
Median price: $343,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 893 Location: an inner suburb of Newcastle,
approx. 3km from the Newcastle’s CBD
Seven Hills is a well developed commercial centre serviced by public transport and great arterial motorways. The Western Sydney suburb has higher than Sydney’s average population growth, with vacancy rates under two per cent. This area outperforms other parts of Sydney in capital growth and the buy-in prices are highly affordable, with yields over six per cent.
LOCATION/TRANSPORT LINKS INCOME GROWTH/TRANSPORT LINKS INDUSTRY
While not technically a suburb of Sydney’s North Shore, Thornleigh benefits from its close proximity to surrounding suburbs such as Wahroonga and Turramurra. Its median house price is below that of surrounding suburbs – which appears to be a pricing abnormality more than anything else. Incomes are growing faster than the city-wide average and the suburb is on a rail line.
With Newcastle the centre of the NSW coal industry and the world’s largest coal export port, the town benefits from any industry growth. The foreshore and area to the west of the CBD have been made over, and Wickham is next in line to be re-urbanised/developed. We also regard Newcastle’s western suburbs (Fletcher and Cameron Park) as strategic areas, with their close proximity to the new freeway link via Branxton to the Hunter.
Key Growth driver Key Growth driver Key Growth driver
16 17 18
New South Wales
5km15km
30km40km29
25
28Brisbane
FAST 50
february 2012 www.spionline.com.au 35
Bowen / Luke Berry Chinchilla / Helen Collier-Kogtevs
experts’ choice Median price: $320,000 (H); $252,500 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 8% (U)
Population: 3,682 Location: a town in the Darling Downs
region, approx. 169km from Toowoomba
Median price: $437,000 (H); $350,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 7% (U)
Population: 28,808 Location: one of the world’s largest coal
export ports, 100km from Rockhampton
With houses averaging around $350,000, the market is more accessible than Gladstone and much of Townsville but is still primed for growth. The focal point for several large projects, notably the port at Abbot Point, the town offers jobs, affordability and lifestyle benefits. We recently met with a local real estate agent and he is predicting that some big things will happen at the end of 2012. So, this is on our radar for later in the year.
INDUSTRY/RESOURCES MINING
RESOURCES
A township in the middle of Queensland’s new and burgeoning coal seam gas and steaming coal industry in the Surat Basin, Chinchilla experiences medium capital growth, neutral cash flow, and has medium entry level cost and medium risk. The town is strategically important to the national economy, has great historical performance and great projected performance, low vacancy rates, high per capita income levels and a shortage of and high demand for housing. Projected capital growth is seven per cent.
Gladstone is a major industrial township with a population of around 29,000, and is expected to grow significantly over the next five years. The town experiences high capital growth, a low level positive cash flow, medium to high entry cost and low risk. It is strategically important to the national economy, has average historical performance and great projected performance, low vacancy rates, high per capita income levels, and a shortage of and high demand for housing. Seventy-seven billion dollars’ worth of estimated resource projects are under construction or in advanced feasibility assessment stages, including major aluminium refinery expansions, aluminium smelter upgrades, power station upgrades, a new major coal terminal, and at least four coal seam gas projects. The population required for construction is predicted to grow the local population by 31 per cent in the first five years and more than double the population in 20 years. Rental yields are between six and eight per cent. [Helen Collier-Kogtevs]
Key Growth driver Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
19
Emerald / Luke Berry
Median price: $410,000 (H); $295,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); 8% (U)
Population: 10,999 Location: a town in the Central Highlands,
approx. 270km west of Rockhampton
Emerald services the established but growing Bowen Basin mining area and the embryonic Galilee Basin mining area. Critically, mining is building on a long-standing and diverse agricultural economy. Affordable, with median house pricing at around $400,000, and good rental yields of more than five per cent, Emerald is a good, low-risk investment given the lower buy-in prices.
SERVICES MINING TOWNSKey Growth driver
22
20
23
Dysart / Helen Collier-Kogtevs
Median price: $465,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 13% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 3,137 Location: in Central Queensland, approx.
250km southwest of Mackay
MINING
Dysart is a minor coal mining township in Bowen Basin with a population of 3,000 that is not expected to grow significantly. It’s an overflow town for Moranbah, with high cash flow, medium entry level cost, less infrastructure than Moranbah, medium risk, strategic importance to the national economy, good historical performance, medium projected performance, high per capital incomes, low to medium vacancy rates, shortage of housing and medium demand. Dysart is supported by four major mines in the region and experienced gross rental yields of between 10 and 15 per cent.
Key Growth driver
21
queensland
Gladstone / Louis Christopher Helen Collier-Kogtevs, Terry Ryder
Median price: $350,000 (H); $160,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 11% (U)
Population: 7,484 Location: a town on the Queensland coast,
approx. 200km southeast of Townsville
Moranbah / Helen Collier-Kogtevs
Roma / Margaret Lomas
Oakey / Margaret Lomas Rockhampton / Margaret Lomas, Luke Barry
Median price: $510,500 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 12% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 7,133 Location: a coal mining town approx.
194km southwest of Mackay
Median price: $290,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 7% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 5,983 Location: the Darling Downs area,
approx. 355km from Toowoomba
Median price: $220,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 3,657 Location: a rural town situated approx.
32km northwest of Toowoomba
Median price: $217,500 (H); $447,500 (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 76,729 Location: the city lies on the Fitzroy River,
approx. 600km from Brisbane
Moranbah is a major coal mining township in the Bowen Basin with a population of 7,000, expected to grow to 14,000 by 2016. High capital growth, high positive cash flow, medium to high entry cost, low risk, strategic importance to the national economy, great historical performance and great projected performance, low vacancy rates, high per capita income levels and a shortage of and high demand for housing all make this town a fast grower. Rental yields are between 10 and 20 per cent.
This is my speculative pick and only for the high-risk investor. Timing will need to be impeccable, with the ownership period to be from now and for seven years or so. As coal seam gas is not unlimited, buyers will want to get out long before there is any sign of this falling off, at the peak of the market.
MINING
RESOURCES
INDUSTRY/LOCATION INDUSTRY
This is my wild card. It has the RAAF Base and the Oakey mine and is around 30 minutes’ drive from Toowoomba. The town of Toowoomba has huge potential – nine small councils have merged to become one ‘super council’ and this area has become the economic engine of the Surat Basin. Again, I don’t like mining towns per se, but this is so close to Toowoomba, which has a diversified industry base, affordable housing and strong rental yields. I’d give this area around five years before it takes off.
This investment is a ‘buy now and wait for three to five years for some action’. Buy-in prices are low at around $220,000 to $250,000, with strong yields around 7.5 per cent. I see this area benefiting from the flow on effect of Gladstone without the high risk that mining areas traditionally bring. [Margaret Lomas]
While the scale of investment is smaller than with Gladstone, it is still significant and Rockhampton boasts several cheap areas such as Berserker (median house price approximately $240,000) that are set to boom. [Luke Berry]
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver Key Growth driver
24
27
25 26
queensland
Toowoomba / Terry Ryder Woolloongabba / Terry Ryder
Median price: $275,000 (H); $233,500 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 128,600 Location: Australia’s second largest inland
city, approx. 132km from Brisbane
Median price: $677,500 (H); $420,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 3% (H); 6% (U)
Population: 3,832 Location: an inner city-suburb, approx.
4km south of the Brisbane CBD
DIVERSE ECONOMY/RESOURCES URBAN RENEWAL/TRANSPORT LINKS
Queensland’s largest inland city is a prime example of a strong regional economy that benefits from the resources boom but doesn’t rely on it – making it a safe long-term bet for investors. Toowoomba has a diverse economy, a secure water supply now that the pipeline has been built to Wivenhoe Dam and an exciting future given everything that is happening in the neighbouring Surat Basin, Australia’s new resources boom province. Toowoomba also offers affordability, with most suburbs having median house prices in the $200,000s.
In 2012, Brisbane can expect to see a similar trend to Perth: a strengthening residential market on the back of the mining sector. Woolloongabba, best known for its cricket venue, is an under rated inner-city suburb that is experiencing a renaissance. It has good transport links, a growing hospitals precinct and strong urban renewal underway.
Key Growth driver Key Growth driver
28 29
36 www.spionline.com.au february 2012
FAST 50
38 www.spionline.com.au february 2012
Dampier / Helen Collier-Kogtevs Fremantle / Terry Ryder Greenfields / Todd Hunter
Median price: $720,000 (H); $420,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 4% (H); 4% (U)
Population: 24,835 Location: a coastal city approx. 19km
southwest of Perth
Median price: $285,750 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 9,316 Location: a suburb of Mandurah, approx.
72km south of Perth
A minor port infrastructure township for iron ore and offshore natural gas, with a population of under 2,000. Dampier experiences high capital growth, high positive cash flow, medium entry level cost and medium risk. The town is strategically important to the national economy, has good projected performance, low vacancy rates, a high per capita income levels, and a shortage of and high demand for housing. Dampier has projected capital growth of 10 per cent and average gross rental yields of 10 per cent.
RESOURCES URBAN RENEWAL LOW PRICES/CLOSE TO PERTH
Perth will finally emerge from hibernation in 2012, driven by the resources boom and fly-in/fly-out workers who live in the state capital but work in the Pilbara region. Fremantle offers wonderful lifestyle elements within 30 minutes of the city and the airport, and increasingly is being driven by strong urban renewal.
The last WA property boom saw Mandurah’s prices increase, making the town one of the top performers for two years straight; since the end of that boom, we have seen the exact opposite occur, with prices dropping below the pre-boom mark. Located 45 minutes from Perth via either the new highway or by train, Mandurah has large population growth and is very attractive for Perth ‘FIFOs’ (fly-in/fly-out workers) as they can live close to Perth airport as well as live beachside. They also pay a premium for rents. With four bedroom homes under $300,000 still available, Greenfields is the pick of suburbs.
Key Growth driver Key Growth driver Key Growth driver
31 32 33
Bunbury
Geraldton
Perth
Broome
Albany
31
37
38
39western australia
western australia
Como / Andrew Wilson
Median price: $850,000 (H); $444,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 3% (H); 4% (U)
Population: 12,423 Location: a suburb of Perth, located
approx. 6km south of the CBD
LOCATION
The Perth capital city market appeals as a stand-out prospect for house price growth, with the median price set to increase by a double-digit percentage by the end of the year. The Perth housing market has suffered from fragile buyer confidence and a mixed economic performance in 2011, when house prices were expected to show real signs of growth. Instead, median house prices have retracted to be more than six per cent down over the year.
Key Growth driver
30
western australia
5km
15km
30km35
32
34
30
36
33
Perth
Median price: $855,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 9% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 1,370 Location: an industrial port in North West
WA, approx. 19km from Karratha
FAST 50
february 2012 www.spionline.com.au 39
Halls Head / Todd Hunter
Newman / Helen Collier-Kogtevs
Leederville / Andrew Wilson
Port Hedland / Helen Collier-Kogtevs
Murdoch / Terry Ryder
South Hedland / Helen Collier-Kogtevs
Median price: $415,000 (H); $415,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 4% (H); 4% (U)
Population: 11,029 Location: a coastal suburb of Mandurah,
approx. 72km south of Perth
Median price: $685,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: SNR (H); SNR (U)
Population: 8,000 Location: a town in the Pilbara region,
approx. 450km south of Port Hedland
Median price: $785,000 (H); $533,250 (U) Gross rental yield: 4% (H); 4% (U)
Population: 2,741 Location: a suburb in the City of Vincent,
approx. 5km north of the Perth CBD
Median price: $1,110,000 (H); $742,500 (U) Gross rental yield: 10% (H); 11% (U)
Population: 11,557 Location: largest town in the Pilbara
region, approx. 1,322km from Perth
Median price: $670,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 4% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 2,996 Location: a suburb of Perth, approx.
12km south of the CBD
Median price: $750,000 (H); $650,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 10% (H); 8% (U)
Population: 7,834 Location: a satellite suburb, approx.
18km from Port Hedland
Halls Head has all the same attributes as Greenfields, the only difference being that the established houses are a little older than those in Greenfields but they are closer to the beach.
A major mining town supporting iron ore production, with a population of 8,000 expected to grow significantly. Newman experiences high capital growth, high positive cash flow, medium to high entry level cost and medium risk. The town is strategically important to the national economy, has great historical performance and great projected performance, low vacancy rates, a high per capita income levels and a shortage of and high demand for housing. Yields are between 10 and 15 per cent.
LOCATION
RESOURCES
LOCATION
RESOURCES
EDUCATION/INDUSTRY
RESOURCES
With Perth’s median house price currently nearly 10 per cent below its peak recorded four years ago, together with lower levels of new construction and a flood of workers seeking the wages bonanza delivered by nearly $100 billion in mining industry activity, it is not unreasonable to expect a significant increase in home buyer activity in Perth through 2012. Other standout suburban prospects for median house price growth in Perth in 2012 are Palmyra, Cloverdale, Joondalup, Eden Hill, Osborne Park and Edgewater.
A major port township for iron ore and offshore natural gas, with a population expected to grow significantly. Port Hedland experiences high capital growth, high positive cash flow, high entry level costs and medium risk. It is strategically important to the national economy, has great historical performance and great projected performance, low vacancy rates, high per capita income levels and a shortage of and high demand for housing. Port Hedland has experienced 10-plus per cent capital growth for the past eight years. Rental yields are between 10 and 15 per cent.
One of the unsung heroes of capital growth is the impetus given by precincts that are centred on education and medical facilities. Every major city has universities and hospitals clustered together, and the rental demand generated by them boosts capital growth in surrounding suburbs. Perth’s Murdoch precinct has a university, a TAFE campus, a Baptist college and a hospital, with another $2 billion hospital under construction. Nearby suburbs will grow.
South Hedland has high capital growth, high positive cash flow, a high entry level cost and medium risk. It is strategically important to the national economy, has great historical performance and great projected performance, low vacancy rates, high per capita income levels, and a shortage of and high demand for housing. Rio Tinto is spending $20 billion on new iron ore mines in the area. This mining town supports predominantly iron ore and natural gas production which are exported to other parts of the world, including China, India and Japan.
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
Key Growth driver
34
37
35
38 39
36
western australia
40 www.spionline.com.au february 2012
Frankston / Luke Berry Morwell / Margaret Lomas Warrnambool / Terry Ryder, Todd Hunter
Median price: $360,000 (H); $290,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 4% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 34,457 Location: a Melbourne suburb, approx.
40km from the CBD
Median price: $161,000 (H); $137,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); 6% (U)
Population: 13,399 Location: a city in central Gippsland,
approx. 150km southeast of Melbourne
Median price: $316,000 (H); $255,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 33,922 Location: a regional city located approx.
265km southwest of Melbourne
One of the key concepts applicable to the Melbourne market is that the further from the CBD, the better the growth. The Mornington Peninsula is one of the best long-term growth corridors in Australia and looks to remain solid. Frankston is an inexpensive suburb and a significant transport hub. Geelong also looks promising. Docklands and Southbank have serious oversupply problems, however, so investors should be cautious if buying property close to the CBD.
LOCATION DIVERSE INDUSTRY INDUSTRY
Despite the existence of brown coal, this town has really become part of greater Melbourne and presents affordable options for first home buyers and new investors. Council is quite actively seeking to attract diversified industry to dilute the town’s reliance on the coal industry, and with improved road access back to Melbourne as well as rail links, this area will perform well in the coming 10 years.
The leading regional centre of Victoria’s south west is growing so fast that the local council has had to rezone hundreds of hectares of farming land for new industrial and residential estates. Warrnambool is strong on tourism, construction, education and medical services. Retail is rapidly expanding and there is a plethora of new power generation facilities, including gas-fired power stations and major wind farms. [Terry Ryder]
Key Growth driver Key Growth driver Key Growth driver
41 42 43
Melbourne
Geelong43
victoria
victoria
Corio / Todd Hunter
Median price: $230,000 (H); $210,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); 6% (U)
Population: 14,919 Location: a residential and industrial suburb
approx. 9km north of Geelong’s CBD
SHORTAGE OF SUPPLY
The number of people resident in each household in Victoria’s Geelong Shire is thinning, meaning there are ‘extra’ people who will need accommodation. This has put pressure on rents and hence we have seen them rise significantly over the past few years. With very attractive yields, investors are starting to flock back to Corio and prices will start to rise. The Council has recognised this and is now directing funds towards this end of town. Corio is also land locked by the Geelong ring road so there are no new developments.
Key Growth driver
40
victoria
4041
42
Melbourne
Geelong
5km15km
30km40km
FAST 50
Hackham / Margaret Lomas Port Adelaide / Terry Ryder Port Augusta / Luke Berry
Median price: $257,000 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 13,730 Location: a suburb of Adelaide that lies
within the City of Onkaparinga
Median price: $357,500 (H); SNR (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); SNR (U)
Population: 1,099 Location: a suburb of Adelaide,
approx.14km northwest of the CBD
Median price: $205,000 (H); $155,000 (U) Gross rental yield: 6% (H); 5% (U)
Population: 13,257 Location: a seaport and railway junction
city, approx. 320km from Adelaide
A suburb in Onkaparinga, I like this one as it is in the lower price ranges – and often below $250,000. Still a little out of favour with locals, it is still subject to the abundance of growth drivers that exist in this area. Adelaide as a whole is going to experience some great movement in the next two to four years and Hackham is an affordable buy, with 6.5 per cent yields and great proximity to everything. Everyone is buying in Seaford and Christies Beach but missing this little gem.
LOCATION RESOURCES/INDUSTRY RESOURCES
South Australia is emerging as the third big resources state, boosted by the upcoming $30 billion expansion of Olympic Dam and many other multi-billion-dollar ventures. Many of the benefits will be felt in Adelaide, with an expanding corporate presence and lots of fly-in/fly-out workers. The Port Adelaide precinct, which will gain new facilities from the resources expansion, also has the Techport facility at which the Air Warfare Destroyer fleet is being built. Nearby suburbs offer a seaside lifestyle and affordability.
Port Augusta is the closest service centre and port to the massive Olympic Dam project, for which an estimated $30 billion in investment and more than 25,000 jobs will be created. Described by Access Economics as the “make or break issue” for the SA economy, and now with government approval, there is nothing in the way of the expansion beginning. Geographic position, affordable housing (median prices in the low $200,000s) and job creation will see capital growth in real estate in this area.
Key Growth driver Key Growth driver Key Growth driver
45 46 47
AdelaidePort Lincoln
47
49
south australia
south australia
Aldinga Beach / Todd Hunter
LOCATION/TRANSPORT LINKS
Many property companies are recommending Seaford and Port Noarlunga as their suburbs of choice. We were buying here in 2007 as Adelaide was, and still is, experiencing a population shift south to these beachside suburbs. Since this shift, the councils and government have announced a new highway and rail line. This is a direct result of a significant increase in the population. The better achieving suburbs will be those on the outer ring of this new infrastructure.
Key Growth driver
44
south australia
5km15km
30km40km
48
45
46
44
Adelaide
Median price: $320,000 (H); $277,500 (U) Gross rental yield: 5% (H); 4% (U)
Population: 5,981 Location: an Adelaide suburb that lies
within the City of Onkaparinga
february 2012 www.spionline.com.au 41
LOCATIONKey growth driver
suburb/ TOwN sTATe PAge #
Aldinga beach sA 41bathurst Nsw 30blacktown Nsw 30bowen QLD 35Canberra ACT 42Chinchilla QLD 35Como wA 38Corio VIC 40Dampier wA 38Dysart QLD 35emerald QLD 35Frankston VIC 40Fremantle wA 38gladstone QLD 35goulburn Nsw 30greenfields wA 38gunnedah Nsw 31Hackham sA 41Halls Head wA 39Lapstone Nsw 31Leederville wA 39Liverpool Nsw 31Moranbah QLD 36Moree Nsw 31Morwell VIC 40Mudgee Nsw 31Murdoch wA 39Muswellbrook Nsw 31Neutral bay Nsw 32Newman wA 39Oakey QLD 36Penrith Nsw 32Port Adelaide sA 41Port Augusta sA 41Port Hedland wA 39Pyrmont Nsw 32richmond Nsw 32rockhampton QLD 36roma QLD 36rosemeadow Nsw 32san remo Nsw 32seaford sA 42seven Hills Nsw 34south Hedland wA 39Thornleigh Nsw 34Toowoomba QLD 36warrnambool VIC 40whyalla sA 42wickham Nsw 34woolloongabba QLD 36
south australia
42 www.spionline.com.au february 2012
Canberra / Luke Berry
Canberra is the most consistent residential property market in the country. The ACT has Australia’s highest average wage – and there are no recessions in bureaucracy. The scarcity of land sees aspirants camping out to secure any rare releases. The market is so strong that it is creating investment opportunities in satellite towns like Goulburn and Yass through the growing commuter market.
50
australian capital territory
fast 50 – alphabetical index
Canberra
Queanbeyan
50
act
Seaford / Luke Berry Whyalla / Terry Ryder
Median price: $350,000 (H); sNr (u) gross rental yield: 5% (H); sNr (u)
Population: 5,169 Location: a suburb of Adelaide that lies
within the City of Onkaparinga
Median price: $290,000 (H); $160,000 (u) gross rental yield: 6% (H); 7% (u)
Population: 21,122 Location: a seaport located approx.
395km from Adelaide
With South Australia poised to become the nation’s third resources state, affordable suburbs (in the mid-$300,000s) on transport corridors with lifestyle benefits are set to perform well. Similar suburbs in Perth have been the best performers in the country during the first wave of the resources boom, and these suburbs find themselves perfectly positioned as SA’s resources industry grows.
LOCATION INDusTrY
Whyalla will soon be to South Australia what Gladstone is to Queensland: the state’s industrial ‘muscle city’. Many investors underrate Whyalla because of its topsy-turvy past, but it’s the future that matters. This regional town of 25,000 has several billion dollar ventures on the horizon, including a new export port, a rare earths processing plant and a desalination plant that will provide water for the Olympic Dam expansion. Houses are cheap, but may not remain so for long.
Key growth driver Key growth driver
48 49
Median price: $535,000 (H); $420,000 (u) gross rental yield: 5% (H); 5% (u)
Population: 358,222 Location: the capital of Australia, located
in the northeast of the Territory
FAST 50