Resilience and recovery – some international comparisons Keynote paper: Resilience: Just do It Governing for Resilience in vulnerable places. Groningen

Stephen Platt

Published online March 2015 at: www.carltd.com/downloads

Reference:

Platt S (2014) Resilience and recovery – some international comparisons. International Workshop. Resilience: Just do It Governing for Resilience in vulnerable places. University of Groningen 9-10 October 2014

 Japan  Turkey    Chile  Temporary  housing,  Kesenumma  New  Toki  housing,  Van    Tsunami  resistant  housing,  Tubul  

     RESILIENCE  AND  RECOVERY  –  SOME  INTERNATIONAL  COMPARISONS  

Resilience:  Just  do  it      Governing  for  resilience  in  vulnerable  places.  Groningen  9  October  2014  

STEVE  PLATT    CAMBRIDGE  ARCHITECTURAL  RESEARCH    

 

1 USA – 1994 Northridge

2 Iran – 2003 Bam earthquake

3 Thailand – 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami

4 Pakistan – 2005 Kashmir earthquake

5 China – 2008 Sichuan earthquake

6 Italy – 2009 L’Aquila earthquake

7 Chile – 2010 Maule earthquake

8 New Zealand – 2011 Christchurch earthquake

9 Turkey – 2011 Van earthquake

10 Japan –2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami

DISASTER RECOVERY CASE STUDIES

DISASTER CYCLE

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STATE A

CATASTROPHIC EVENT

Preparedness  Response  

Recovery  MiVgaVon  

DECISION MAKERS

Preparedness  Response  

Recovery  MiVgaVon  

Disaster  Managers  

Planners  

Time

MEASURE B

RESILIENCE

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STATE A

CATASTROPHIC EVENT

MEASURE B

CATASTROPHIC EVENT

Japan Tohoku 2011 Population 9.3 million Date Mar-11

Time 14.46

Magnitude 9.0

Displaced 130,927

Deaths+Missing 18,499

%age of Displaced 14.1%

Economic Loss US$bn 235

Insured Loss US$bn 35

Rebuild cost US$bn 309

Date Mar-11

Time 14.46

Magnitude 9.0

Displaced 130,927

Deaths+Missing 18,499

%age of Displaced 14.1%

Economic Loss $235bn

Insured Loss $35bn

Rebuild cost $309bn

COASTAL PLAINS little resistance, large horizontal inundation, insignificant vertical inundation

RIAS COASTLINE high vertical runup due to amplifying effect of topography, but limited horizontal inundation

Bay of Sendai - Before

Bay of Sendai - 11 March 2011 2:50 pm

Bay of Sendai - After

Temporary housing Japan

Kasai Temporary Housing, NW Ishinomaki

50,000 temporary houses for 87,000 displaced people. Containers 25 - 30 m2 two rooms plus a kitchenette and bathroom. Ready after 4-8 weeks. On the Rias Coast 2/3 of displaced people rehoused in temporary housing compared with 1/3 on the Sendai Plain, where the majority were housed in private rented apartments.

Urban Planning

Source: (2013) Framework of Japan’s urban planning. Kinki Regional Development Bureau. Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism http://www.kkr.mlit.go.jp/kensei/eng/index20.html

Protection strategies Strategy A Relocation RIAS COAST

Strategy B Multiple protection SENDAI PLAIN

Source: Tominaga, M (2011) Urban and spatial planning in Japan, Masters Thesis, Tohoku University, Dept Architecture and Building Science

Iwanuma Sendai Plain

1.  Three lines of defense

2.  Relocation of housing

3.  Coastal park

4.  Evacuation routes

Ishinomaki: Rias Coast

Kesennuma

Kesennuma: Rias Coast

Kesennuma

•  Size of embankments

Ohyakaigan beach, temporary embankment

EEFIT Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team

Karakuwa Peninsula, near Kesennuma. Height of proposed 9m levee

Shibitachi: Rias Coast

Miura Tomayukin, community worker, Mika Oya District, Kesennuma Akihiko Sugawara, sake brewery owner, V.P. Chamber of Commerce

COMMUNITY INVOLVEMENT

Bureaucracy and Consensus

Ohyakaigan beach, temporary embankment

Turkey Turkey: Van 2011 Population 1 million

Ergiş

Van

Date Oct-23

Time 13.41

Magnitude 7.1

Displaced 50,000

Deaths+Missing 604

%age of Displaced 1.2%

Economic Loss $1bn

Insured Loss $150m

Rebuild cost ?

Temporary housing

Immediate response c70,000 tents in 14 tent cities in Van and Erciş. Temporary camps 150-160,000 people were housed in 21m2 containers in 29 camps in Van and 4 in Ergiş.##Turkish Red Crescent: Kızılay Weekly General Report-No: 62 AFAD Directorate of Disaster Management 30 April 2012 #

Turkey Permanent housing Toki Housing

10,000 dwellings in Van, 5,000 dwellings Erçiş with social facilities built within 15 months. Total cost in region of $US2bn

Each 100 m2 house costs 75,000 TL (US$35,000)

Rent free for 2 years, then 350TL (US$160) per month for 18 years.

Private housing

15,000TL (US$ 6,900) compensation for badly damaged houses

Photo 2 Oct 2012 taken from plane 12 months after earthquake (Platt)

Photo 27 Apr 2013 (Platt)

Urban planning

Urban Renewal Project - post-earthquake 2011 Van, Turkey Meltem Şentürk Asıldeveci, urban Design, Ankara.

Turkey Building inspection

!

!Tolga Ozden PhD Thesis 2013

Building with 2 commercial stories plus 5 stories of apartments next to Governor’s palace in Ergis

Turkey Governance

Chile: Maule 2010 Population about 1 million

Date Feb-27 Time 3.34 Magnitude 8.8 Displaced 800,000 Deaths+Missing 550 %age of Displaced 0.1% Economic Loss $30bn Insured Loss $5.5bn Rebuild cost $22.5bn

Dichato 27.03.2010

Bathroom block, all that’s left of the Mendez family home

Temporary housing

Dichato Master Plan 1 college 2 park 3 anti tsunami housing 4 fishing pier 5 fish market 6 housing 7 bridge 8 fill 9 tree planting centre 10 park 11 roads 12 esplanade 13 cultural centre 14 fire brigade 15 boulevard 16 school 17 sports centre 19 bus terminal 20 police station 21 canalization 22 estuary embankment 23 municipal offices 24 new ring road

Carolina Arriaga, PRBC18 lead architect for southern sector explaining master plan to resident committee

Participation of residents

Ivan Cartes, Dean of Architecture, University of Bio-Bio, Concepción, talking to James Dunn, restaurant owner in Dichato

February Tsunami

March / April Diagnosis by design team

May / June Focus group meetings

July Resident survey

August Validation of proposals

Participation of businesses

Beach

Vehicle circulation

Woodland

COTA SEGURIDAD (8-9m Height)

Buildings

Approx. 80 m

Designing for tsunami. National Tsunami Mitigation Program - NOAA, USGS, FEMA

Proposed  sea  defences  Dichato  

Estimated cost of $17m

m  

Proposed tsunami resistant housing

Construction of new tsunami proof housing in Tubul

Conclusions

Ferry Terminal building Onagawa

Demographics

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 Japan  Turkey    Chile  

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Population Pyramids 2010 Source: US Census Bureau. International database 2010

Economics

Japan

Japan Turkey Chile

GNP 2012 $5,960bn $789bn $268bn

Rebuild Cost $1,330bn $0.5bn $23bn

Insurance loss $35bn $0.2bn $5.5bn

Population 128m 74m 17.5m

$5.9 trillion $0.8 trillion $0.3 trillion

Population 128 million

Population 74 million Population 17.5 million

Turkey

Chile

Source: IMF Economic Health Check. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/car092910a.ht

Gross National Product Rebuild Cost Insured Loss

 TOO  SLOW?  TOO  FAST?    JUST  RIGHT?  

Temporary  housing,  Kesenumma  New  Toki  housing,  Van    Tsunami  resistant  housing,  Tubul  

     SPEED  OR  DELIBERATION?        

 

 Japan  Turkey    Chile  

Thank you

Abandoned children’s satchels, school hall Yuriage, Natori