Post on 17-Jan-2016
transcript
1
Return Flow Discussion
ESHMC Meeting6 March 2008
Presented by Stacey Taylor
2
Overview
• Bryce Contor’s slides• Historical data analysis:
– IESW007 (Big and Little Wood Rivers)– IESW054 (Richfield)
• Ongoing Snake River return data (groups)• General conclusions
3
Current Calculation Method
Diversions
Retu
rns
Returns = b1 * Diversions(one equation for each entity)
4
Alternate Methods
Diversions
Retu
rns
Returns = bo
(one equation for each entity)
Diversions
Retu
rns
Returns = bo + b1 * Diversions(one equation for each entity)
Diversions
Retu
rns
Returns = -bo + b1 * Diversions)(one equation for each entity)
Diversions
Retu
rns
Returns = logarithmic function(one equation for each entity)
Returns = exponential
function(one equation for
each entity)
OR
Alternate Method (1) Alternate Method (2)
Alternate Method (3) Alternate Methods (4) and (5)
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Raster Graphics
• Created several raster graphics to represent returns and diversions for IESW007 and IESW054
• Different colors represent different diversions/returns.
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Example Raster (1)W
ater
Yea
r
Month
Oct. Sept.
0
5
10
15
20
Diversion1,000 ac-ft
1928
2004
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Example Raster (2)W
ater
Yea
r
Month
Oct. Sept.
0
5
10
15
20
Diversion1,000 ac-ft
1928
2004
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Example Raster (3)W
ater
Yea
r
Month
Oct. Sept.
0
5
10
15
20
Diversion1,000 ac-ft
1928
2004
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IESW007 Total Diversions(Big and Little Wood Rivers)
Total Diversions
0
1
3
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5
6
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Water Year1928
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2004
Month10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Diversion(1,000 ac-ft)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
10
Return(1,000 ac-ft)
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
1.6
Water Year1928
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2004
Month10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Total Returns
<VALUE>
0
0 - 0
0 - 0.1
0.1 - 0.2
0.2 - 0.3
0.3 - 0.4
0.4 - 0.5
0.5 - 0.6
0.6 - 0.7
0.7 - 0.8
0.8 - 0.9
0.9 - 1.0
1.0 - 1.1
1.1 - 1.2
1.2 - 1.3
1.3 - 1.4
1.4 - 1.5
1.5 - 1.6
1.6 - 1.7
0.91.01.11.21.31.41.5
1.7
IESW007 Total Returns(Big and Little Wood Rivers)
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IESW054 Total Diversions(Richfield) Diversion
(1,000 ac-ft)Water Year1928
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2004
Month10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
0
10
20
30
0
1
2
3
4
5
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30
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IESW054 Total Returns(Richfield) Return
(1,000 ac-ft)0
5
20
Water Year1928
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2004
Month10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Total Returns
Value
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
8
9
13
14
16
18
10
13
200 250 300 350 400 450 5000
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
f(x) = 0.0246887721910913 x − 6.65388487462722R² = 0.687215377959056
f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0
Returns vs. Diversions for IESW007 (Wood Rivers)
1928-1950Linear (1928-1950)1951-1970Linear (1951-1970)1971-1980Linear (1971-1980)1981-2004Linear (1981-2004)
Diversion (1000 ac-ft)
Retu
rn (1
000
ac-ft
)
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0 20 40 60 80 100 120 1400
5
10
15
20
25
f(x) = 0.207242892482694 x − 6.30837644666079R² = 0.858000134321785
f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0f(x) = NaN x + NaNR² = 0 Returns vs. Diversions for
IESW054(Richfield) 1928-
1950Linear (1928-1950)
Diversion (1000 ac-ft)
Retu
rn (1
000
ac-ft
)
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0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 400000
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
f(x) = 0.164689038436237 x − 152.034585725503R² = 0.989096451839597
CumulativeLinear (Cumulative)Departure from Linear
Cumulative Diversion (1000 ac-ft)
Cum
ulati
ve R
etur
n (1
000
ac-ft
)
Dep
artu
res
from
Lin
ear
1972 1975
Cumulative Return vs. Cumulative DiversionIESW007 (Wood Rivers)
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Cumulative Return vs. Cumulative DiversionIESW054 (Richfield)
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 90000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
f(x) = 0.116999148341379 x + 99.9176635440656R² = 0.99615611942521
CumulativeLinear (Cumulative)Departure from Linear
Cumulative Diversion (1000 ac-ft)
Cum
ulati
ve R
etur
n (1
000
ac-ft
)
1954 1958
1974 1981
1986
Dep
artu
re f
rom
Lin
ear
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What Caused the Change?
• Change in slope of cumulative plots– Possibly related to conversion to sprinklers– Calibration data shows percentage these increases:
• IESW007 – May 1980 to May 2002 sprinkler % increased from 14.7% to 28.0% (13% increase)
• IESW054 – May 1980 to May 2002 sprinkler % increased from 31.9% to 59.7% (28% increase)
• Aerial photography covering the area encompassed by both entities has been requested for 1969 and 1977
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Regression Analysis
• A regression analysis was performed on each set of data (1928-1950, 1951-1970, etc)
• P-values were found for each intercept and slope (95% confidence interval)
• Given shared ranges between each set of data, a general equation may describe both entities (IESW007 and IESW054)
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IESW007 Intercepts and Slopes(Based on 95% CI)
-15.000 -13.000 -11.000 -9.000 -7.000 -5.000 -3.000 -1.000 1.000 3.000
IESW007 Intercept Ranges1928-19501951-19701971-19801981-2004
0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035
IESW007 Slope ranges1928-19501951-19701971-19801981-2004
Shared intercept range: -3.76 to -3.67 Shared slope range: 0.0173 to 0.0235
y = 0.02x – 3.70
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-0.2 -0.15 -0.1 -0.05 0 0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3
IESW054 Slope Ranges
1928-19501951-19701971-19801981-2004
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40
IESW054 Intercept Ranges1928-19501951-19701971-19801981-2004
IESW054 Intercepts and Slopes(Based on 95% CI)
No shared slope range between all sets; 1981-2004 slope is negative
Shared slope range: 0.170 to 0.177
y = 0.17x - ???
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Ongoing Snake River Return Data
• Group data for 2002-2006 were compared to IESW007 and IESW054
• Plotted returns vs. diversions • Plotted returns vs. normalized diversion
(Normalized diversion = diversion/max diversion of single entity)
• Plotted normalized returns vs. normalized diversions
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Returns vs. Diversions for Separate Entities
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
1000000
11000000
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000 IESW002IESW010IESW011IESW016IESW028IESW031IESW032IESW036IESW041Linear (IESW041)Linear (IESW041)
Diversion (ac-ft)
Retu
rn (a
c-ft
)
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Returns vs. Normalized Diversion
0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 10.000
0.100
0.200
0.300
0.400
0.500
0.600IESW002Linear (IESW002)IESW010Linear (IESW010)IESW011Linear (IESW011)IESW016
Diversion (each point divided by max diversion of the entity)
Retu
rn P
erce
nt o
f Div
ersi
on
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Conclusions
• Current technique of assuming straight line plot with zero intercept may still be best(Returns = b1*Diversions)
• Slope (b1) based on historical data OR lag factors (depends on which is available)
• Slope may be better estimated with inclusion of latest data
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Discussion