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FLOOD RUNOFF ANALYSIS AND WATER AVAILABILITY FOR INTEGRATED RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENT PLANNING IN PANJ-E-AMU
Ritsumeikan University Graduate School of Science and Engineering Advanced Architectural, Environmental and Civil EngineeringMaster Thesis Defense
Panj-e-Amu Basin in the Upper Panj area (Panj River)
Presenter: Fayezurahman Azizi ID : 6141130021-7
Academic advisor: Prof.Satofuka Yoshifumi
Civil Engineering DepartmentWatershed Design Laboratory
Date: 2015.08.05
Thesis StructureChapter 1.
Introduction
Chapter 2.Literature Review
Chapter 3.Study area and
Dataset
Chapter 4.Approach and Methodology
Chapter 5.Flood Runoff Analysis
Chapter 6. Hydrological Analysis for Water Availability
Chapter 7.Conclusions and
Recommendation
Introduction
overview
Afghanistan is divided to five major basin
Over 80% percent of the population relies directly on the natural resources of the River basins.
Provides the Upstream water of four major river basin that flow into neighboring countries
The restructuring of river basins was started in 2011
The IWRM concept in the river basins is to promote a decentralization of water resource management and water planning into river basin-level and sub-basin level management.
Problems and issues Lack of Water Resources planning throughout the River Basin Environmental degradation Extreme flood disaster and erosion problems The lack of historical data Demand for water needs has dramatically increased
Darqad
Darqad
Sheberghan BalkhSamangan
Kunduz
Takhar
The most Vulnerable cities along Amu River
Taloqan River
Kokcha River
Kunduz River
Darqad Dashti-Qala
KaldarHairatan
A O
E D
Dashti-Qala
Objectives
• Calculating rainfall-runoff for flood runoff analysis and estimate flood probability
• Compare the correlation of GSMAP-NRT estimated rainfall and river discharge data by IFAS with ground based data.
• Calculating the annual average rainfall loss , effective rainfall and water loss • Estimate the supply ability of the basin to its future water demands
• Assess the direct runoff coefficient of river regime flow , water availability and basin characteristics
The purpose of this study is how to analyze flood runoff and evaluate water availability based on the hydrological process using the IFAS and WEAP models , to utilize its result as a step for integrated river basin management planning and dams’ feasibility.
The specific objectives are:
Study Area
This Basin accounts for about 57% percent of the annual water discharge of the country Estimated irrigation area total is about 424,000 ha
Dataset and characteristics of The Panj-e-Amu River Basin
Location of the StationsThe 32 Hydrological stations data are still available
The annual average precipitation is about 400 mm (2009-2013)
annual average temperature is about 13.6 C (2009-2012)
Max (43.2C◦) Lower Kunduz basin Min (-32.7C◦) Upper Panj basin
The terrain (DEM) of the Basin ranges from 200 m to 7470 m
Two Irrigation and hydropower dam
Bare Rock with loamy very fine sand is covered the most part of the basin while Silt Loam is the second and Rock with Loamy Very Fine Sand is the third
New Stations at the same location of old H.STNew Hydrological Stations
Existing Dam
Approach and Methodology
For the Watershed Design sustainability, development of integrated management planning aspects, must be considered.Be able to analyze and control flood disaster to reduce the economic damagesBe able to allocate water balance of the basin for prospective planning Be able to assess the river basin characteristics and ability
The Following Approaches and methodology used in this study
• Hydrological Data• Meteorological Data• Geological Data
𝑥𝑇=𝑥+𝐾 𝜎𝑛− 1
IFASGumbel extreme-value distribution
Data collection /Handling
WEAP Model Water Evaluation and planning
Flood Runoff analysisFlood Frequency analysis/Return periods, Probability exceedance
Hydrological Process /water Availability, Rainfall
losses
Water Allocation
River basin Management
planning
Future Water Demands
Supply
Integrated Flood Analysis System
IFAS Processing Structure
IFAS is an Integrated Flood Analysis System, calculates river discharge based on GIS data .
Entire World Rainfall Data are Available
IFAS goal is oriented to the developing countries which is lack of hydro meteorological data .
Flow of surface
Display of results
Runoff analysis
Modeling
Rainfall Data
IFAS Processing structure
o PWRI-Distributed Model Ver2.0
Tables & Graphs
o satellite- based rainfall data -GSMAP-NRT(JAXA)
o Building channel network, o Importing Target Elevation and Land Use (GLCC-USGS)o Global Map (ISCGM) spatial resolution 30 sec
Kokcha
o Ground-based rainfall data (WRD-Stations)
o Estimation and Modifies Water Tanks Parameter
Processing Structure WEAP is an unique approach for conducting integrated water resources planning assessments Calculates water demand, supply, runoff, reservoir and power production under different
hydrologic and policy scenarios Evaluates a full range of water development and management options
WEAP Processing
Schematic data of the basin
Create Area (Kokcha Sub- Basin)
Insert GIS Layer
Create Account years (2015-2030) for calculation
Draw River Line
Inter Monthly Average Flow
Demand Priority (Faizabad City , Agriculture)
Connect Demand With Supply
Connect return flow link
Make and Compared Scenarios
Change Irrigation Rate Change Growth rate Pop (2.4,3, 5%) scenarios
References scenario (2015-2030)
Reservoirs and Power Production calculations
Modeling Runoff-River Power Plant
Hydropower Computation
Kokcha (Modeling Reservoirs )
Results of Calculations SchematicsTables Charts
Run the WEAP for calculation
Start
Results and Discussions - Flood Runoff Analysis by IFASSummary of Flood Limits (M3/Sec) For The Panj-e-Amu River Basin, April,2012
Based on GSMAP-NRT Rainfall(mm) data Base on Hourly Ground Rainfall(mm) Measurement DischargeNo Station River Low- Flood Medium-Flood High-flood Low- Flood Medium-Flood High-flood Low- Discharge Medium-Discharge High-Discharge
1 Khojaghar Kokcha 419.08 569.35 599.42 451 682.13 1101.19 102.00 137.5 190.002 Faizabad Kokcha 193.58 287.37 389.82 245.51 421.49 666.13 127 148.2 169.003 Keshem Keshem 47.59 67.19 70.20 57.74 81.82 126.96 6 7.5 9.004 Teshkan Teshkan 15.81 24.19 25.58 18.28 30.23 48.96 8.8 8.9 9.15 Anjuman munjan 7.26 9.59 10.00 8.15 12.8 22.82 1.12 1.2 1.32
6 Jurm Jurm 2.18 2.57 2.65 1.86 3.42 5.29 23.6 30.9 33.4
7 Baharak Shuhada 6.40 8.89 9.30 19 32.38 47.59 9 10.0 118 Shashpul Shashpul 4.34 6.03 6.35 21.69 32 55.83 24.8 27.1 30.1
The IFAS by using the data of Satellite GSMAP-NRT rainfall calculated the peak discharge of magnitude 599.42 m3/sec on 2012/04/15 at 24 hours.
While the IFAS by using the data of ground rainfall calculated the peak discharge of magnitude 1101 m3/sec on 2012/04/29 at 24 hours.Location of Hydrological Stations are used for calculation/IFAS
Khojaghar
Kokcha
Results and Discussions - Flood Runoff Analysis 4
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Flood Runoff_ Comparison at Khojaghar Hydrological Station
Gsmap NRT-Rainfall
Ground-Rainfall
GSMAP-NRT Rainfall-Discharge
Ground Hourly Rainfall-Discharge
Dai
ly D
isch
arge
[m3/
s]
Rai
nfal
l [m
m/d
ay]
Peak Discharge = 1106.9 m3/sDirect Runoff Coeficient = 0.36
The IFAS showed high river course discharge with GSMAP-NRT rainfall than measured data in most cases
The base flow and peak discharge calculated based on Ground rainfall (Hourly and Daily) are shown the highest in each and every case
The discharge calculated by the Satellite GSMAP_NRT rainfall is well agreement with the measured discharge in some places
The tendency and total amount values of rainfall based GSMAP-NRT are smaller ,but in case heavy rainfall event over 14-25 mm/h, the tendency and amount of some points are near to each other’s
The correlation of satellite-based rainfall and ground-based rainfall is almost ,50%
Results (Cont) - Gumbel extreme-value distribution method
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
Estimated Flood Hydrograph at Khojaghar Hydrological station
Series1 50002000 1000500 300200 10080 5040 3025 2010 52 1.51.01
Days
Dis
char
ge (m
3/se
c)
1 10 100 10000
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Annual Observed FloodGumbel Distribution
Return Period (years)
Floo
d D
ischa
rge(
m3/
s)
Pul-e-Chugha Hydrological Station
First graph Shows the probability of flood frequency period based on 1965-1979 years data
The Probable floods Hydrograph is prepared by using a recorded flood Peak for the interval of 1.01 ,5000 years.
The calculation result shows for the 100 year a 4369 m3/Sec maximum probable flood
The May 22, 1969 flood, which was observed 1550 m3/Sec, as a maximum flood during the period of 1964-2013,
Result (Cont) - Future water Demands and Resources
This Graph shows the estimated of the water supply for the future demands with a high population growth rate scenario in Faizabad City, which is increase the Shortages of water for the Irrigations land.
Faizabad city
Proposed Dam “Shurabak”
Proposed Dam “Qala-i-Mamay”
Result (Cont) - Rainfall Loss with Effective Rainfall Rate & direct runoff coefficient analysis
Summary Results
Drainage Area (Sq.km)
Discharge (Mm3)
Precipitation(mm)
Rainfall loss (mm)
Water losses(Mm3)
Effective Rainfall(mm)
Totall 33434.16 10325.19 4897.24 33892.47 14.25Average 1238.30 382.41 181.38 1255.28 0.53
percentage (%) 49.66 67.83 32.17 50.3496800
503.
136
473
300.
237
401
12.8
313
257
467
379
466
144
30
294
202
268
28
165
54
An average of about 32% rainfall losses are showing in this Basin
An average of approximately 50 % water loss
showing an annual average of around 0.53 mm effective rainfall and a total of about 14.25 mm
No. YearFlood
Duration[days]
Basin Rainfall
(mm)
Peak Discharge[
m3/sec]
Base Flow[m3/s
ec]
Direct Runoff [mm]
Runoff Coefficient
1 2009 5/21/2009 7/20/2009 60 25.25 900 261 34.29 1.36
2 2010 5/31/2010 7/24/2010 54 11.01 642 231 58.28 5.29
3 2011 6/7/2011 7/25/2011 48 3 600 291 26.78 8.93
4 2012 6/13/2012 8/8/2012 56 4.89 648 299 43.24 1.26
5 2013 5/18/2013 6/30/2013 43 9.58 564 165 38.15 0.62
Average 52 10.7 670.8 249.4 40.1 3.49
Max. 60 25.3 900 299 58.3 8.93
Min. 43 3 564 165 26.8 0.62
Peak Discharge (Flood Duration)
shows a large different direct runoff coefficient because of very rare rainfall on peak discharge timing in the dry season
Result (Cont) - Mean Annual Runoff & River Flow Regime analysis of Panj-e-Amu River Basin
010002000
30004000500060007000
Mean Annual Runoff Of Panj-e-Amu River Basin (2005-2013)
Hydrological Stations
Mea
n A
nnua
l Run
off (M
m3)
The mean annual runoff capacity is estimated 40 BCM (Billion Cubic Meter) per year
AWARD World Bank New data/WRD
30
35
40
45
50
Panj-e-Amu River Basin -Total Annual Runoff
Tota
l Ann
ual R
unoff
(BCM
)
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
2500% River Flow Regime - Hydrograph
Faizabad Khojaghar
Months/2012
Pard
e-Co
effici
ent (
%)
Spring
summer
FallWinter
The spring/summer high water flow ‐contributes around 79% of the total annual flow discharged into the Basin.
The Khojaghar data presented 77%while Faizabad covered about 82%
Conclusion• The Integrated Flood Analysis System model (IFAS) result was not
satisfactory with measured and observed data in Panj-e-Amu Basin.
• The input data of Ground Surface-Based rainfall could improve the flood runoff inflow of the IFAS simulation.
• Flood peaks in the Panj-e-Amu River Basin is more influenced by snow melting while the air temperature is increasing during the summer in the mountainous area.
• The Water balance method is more suitable in the estimation of Rainfall losses.
• Panj-e-Amu River Basin has great ability for prospective and comprehensive planning.
Recommendations • More accurate adequate validation data of the basin and
extension of Hydro meteorological networks in upstream are required for the Future sustainability and Planning.
• For a comprehensive and sustainable watershed design in the future of Panj-e-Amu, the key association elements, including geological data, real demography ,people life style, a more accurate assessment of land cover, land use , soil type , geo-morphology development is required.
• Its important to modify parameters of IFAS to be appropriate with the particular river basin.
Thanks For Your Attention
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