Road to the Presidency

2016©James P. Norris, May 26, 2015

Who will run?

• Who has “declared” so far?• Who is considering running?• Who is leading as of the end of May,

2015• Who are these people?

Remember…

• The Election is held on:

• That is a year and a half from now. A long timeand much can change by then.

To be the candidate, one must…

• Make a strong showing in the Iowa caucus (Feb 1, 2016- Dem; Feb 2, 2016- Rep)

• Make a strong showing or win the New Hampshire Primary election (Tuesday, February 9, 2016)

• Make a strong showing or win in the other state primary elections from March to June, 2016

But the actual nominations take place..

• 41st Republican Party National Convention• Cleveland, Ohio• July 18-21, 2016• And• Democratic National Convention• Philadelphia, PA• July 25–28, 2016

Delegates from the whole country come together to nominate

As of today, May 29, 2015Who has officially “declared”?

• Democratic Party:

– Hillary Rodham Clinton – Former Secretary of State, former U.S. Senator, Former First Lady.

– U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders – Democratic Senator from Vermont (2007 – present)

“Declared” Republicans…as of 5/28/2015

• Ben Carson – Former pediatric neurosurgeon• Ted Cruz – U.S. Senator from Texas (2013- present) • Carly Fiorina – Former CEO of Hewlitt Packard • Mike Huckabee – Former Governor of Arkansas (1996 –

2007)• Rand Paul – U.S. Senator from Tennessee (2011- present)• Marco Rubio – U.S. Senator from Florida (2011 – present)• Rick Santorum – Former Senator (1995-2007) from PA.• George Pataki – Former N.Y. Governor (1994-2006)

Who is a “Possible” Candidate?• Democratic Party- • Joe Biden• Lincoln Chafee• Andrew Cuomo• Kirsten Gillibrand• Amy Klobuchar• Dennis Kucinich• Martin O'Malley• Brian Schweitzer• Mark Warner• Elizabeth Warren• Jim Webb

Who is a “Possible” Candidate?

• Republican:• Kelly Ayotte• Jeb Bush• Chris Christie• Mitch Daniels• Lindsey Graham• Nikki Haley• Bobby Jindal• John Kasich

• Peter King• Susana Martinez• George Pataki• Mike Pence• Rick Perry• Brian Sandoval• Rick Santorum• Scott Walker

Why so many more Republicans

Why so many more Republicans?

Ok. I’ll be nice…Hillary has a formidable lead.

Hillary Clinton leads the pack.

• Pollster Trend against fellow Democrats:

• Hillary Clinton 62.3%• Elizabeth Warren 12.4%• Bernie Sanders 10.6%• Joe Biden 9.4%• Martin O'Malley 1.8%• Jim Webb 1.6%• Brian Schweitzer 0.0%• Undecided• Other

The other “declared” candidate:

Basic Info:

• Hillary Rodham Clinton:• Born: October 26, 1947 (age 67), Chicago, IL• Height: 5' 7" (1.69 m)• Spouse: Bill Clinton (m. 1975)• Bernie Sanders:• Born: September 8, 1941 (age 73), Brooklyn, New

York City, NY• Office: Senator (D-VT) since 2007• Spouse: Jane O’Meara Sanders (m. 1988)

Issues from the start…

• Hillary Clinton: Age 67 ( Would be 69 yrs old when takes office).

• Benghazi attack – Perception by some of lack of candor, truth.

• Money – The Clinton Foundation accepted donations from foreign governments and Bill Clinton got millions for speeches.

• Others?

Issues from the start:

• Bernie Sanders – Age 73 (would be 75 when takes office –oldest ever)

• Socialist platform – Far left?

Clinton has sketched out the broad policy strokes, declaring in her campaign launch video that she wants to be the “champion” for “everyday Americans.”

• On issues ranging from health care to climate change, she’s been largely in lockstep with President Barack Obama, and she used a roundtable discussion Tuesday at a community college in Iowa to outline four big fights she wants to take on — including getting “unaccountable money” out of the political system, using a constitutional amendment if necessary. She also backed Obama’s proposal to offer students two free years of community college.

• Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2015/04/hillary-clintons-policies-wheres-the-beef-116981.html#ixzz3bImGTKs3

Sen. Bernie Sanders

• Technically an Independent (not a Democrat), Bernie Sanders is a self-described Socialist.

• As such, his issues and stances tend to be liberal and progressive.

• What Bernie Sanders thinks...

Who leads on the Republican Side?

• Pollster Trend• Scott Walker 15.8%• Jeb Bush 13.3%• Marco Rubio 10.8%• Rand Paul 9.3%• Ted Cruz 8.9%• Ben Carson 8.7%• Mike Huckabee 8.4%

• Chris Christie 5.1%• Rick Perry 2.4%• John Kasich 1.8%• Carly Fiorina 1.6%• Rick Santorum 1.5%• Bobby Jindal 1.3%• Lindsey Graham 0.6%• Undecided

Why include undeclared candidates?The “field” is still wide open

• Washington Post “most likely” candidates?

Jeb Bush (Fla), Chris Christie (NJ);Marco Rubio (Fla); Rand Paul (TN)

• https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xp2lEGHwDWc

• SNL Republican Candidates

Hillary and Bernie’s videos

• Hillary's announcement video

• Bernie Sanders Announcement

SNL and Hillary

• Saturday Night Live and Hillary's announcement