Post on 13-Apr-2018
transcript
Future Trends Urban Growth — Since 2007, greater than 50% of people live in cities. By 2030, the estimate is greater than 60% will live in urban centers. Australia’s eight major urban centers may be closer to 70%.
Energy — Urban centers occupy less than 2% of the land mass, but consume 75% of the energy. Smart Grids and energy efficient transport will address this growth. Fuel Prices will drive transportation transformation.
Transportation DNA — All modes of transport will switch over to electrification with regenerative subsystems, drives and new designs. Fuel efficiency will increase dramatically.
Convergence — Technology will continue to converge. Digital media, communications and connectivity will be ubiquitous.
Greater Wealth — Markets driven from urban centers of businesses and headquarters with more political clout and economic impact
Greater Urban-Rural DIvide — More contention over social issues stemming from 60-40 and 70-30 splits.
Greater energy domination — Demands need to be met and increase in technological solutions, Smart Grids, renewable energy and conservation of all resources. More easily achieved in Urban centers than rural / suburban environments.
Greater Congestion in and into Urban Centers — Supply and demand out of balance and spending will not keep up.
Greater Convergence — Demands in everyday life styles will dictate more and more convergence based on information and smart choices.
More Public Transport — Demands will be satisfied in inner cities, less the further out.
Urban Growth
For the near to mid-term future, petrol and diesel
will be the main automotive fuel
As a first step, we are drastically reducing fuel consumption and CO2
emissions of petrol and diesel cars through technical innovation and
increased efficiency
2025 2000 2050
Automotive fuel perspective
Choice: Hybrid TechnologyStrategic (with applications in many future technologies)
Engine
Fuel
tank
Motor
Battery
Engine
H 2
tank
Motor
Battery
FC stack
HEV
Engine
Fuel
tank
Motor
Battery
EV
Engine
Fuel
tank
Motor
Battery
PHEV FCHEV
Using hybrid technology for PHEV, EV and FCHEV
Vehicle efficiency — Vehicle Fleet efficiency gaining by over 4% per annum compared to 2 percent previously and 3% most recently. Electrification of Vehicle — Drive Steering Regenerative braking Form factor
Composite Materials — Lighter and stronger Adds to vehicle efficiency Supports new innovative design
Transportation DNA
…. further increase CO2 emissions
Source: IPCC report 2007
CO
2 d
en
sit
y (
pp
mv)
Industrial Revolution
280 ppm
379 ppm (2005)
450 ppm EU target
(~2° Celsius)
A powertrain map for future mobility
PHV
FCHV
FCHV(BUS)
Regional
Mobility
Urban
commuters
EV
Winglet
Veh
icle
siz
e
Delivery
trucks
Heavy-duty
trucks
Small delivery vehicles i series
Personal
Mobility
FCHVs
EVs HVs & PHVs with
internal combustion engine
Driving distance
Gasoline, diesel, bio-fuels, compressed
natural gas, gas to liquids, coal to liquids, etc. Electricity Hydrogen Fuel
HV
EleCycles
Suburban
Commuters
Integration of transport modes
Des
tinat
ion
Personal
Mobility
Intercity
City center ~ inner city
Mobility distance
Sp
ee
d
Commuter
Car-sharing
PHV / HV
International train
Local train
City Zone
Clean bus
Private Own Vehicles
Fueled cars Tram
Fuel Cell Hybrid bus
Suburbs
Regional
EV
Taxi
Rail
Near Field Communications (NFC) enables mobile user cases
with attractive revenue opportunities for transportation and
adjacent service industries
Vehicle Connectivity — Vehicle will connect with the internet and use GPS for travel and travel information. Internet Vehicles — will use: Route guidance Traffic prediction models Payment methodology Data for entertainment
Users will demand — Same connectivity they have at home
and office Ability to connect to data bases Information on parking, location based
services and recharging
Convergence
17
Sydney
3.7 billion hours wasted in the USA per annum
2.3 billion litres of fuel wasted
This shouldn’t just be a “fact of life” – this is about QUALITY OF LIFE!
“We’re headed into the “perfect storm” — the
eventual collapse of the nation’s surface transport
program.
There are three main factors accounting for it:
•Declining transportation revenues;
•Increasing costs of renewal, replacement, or expansion; and
•The growing dependency of individuals and business on automobiles and
trucks.” *
* Joseph M. Giglio, Driving Questions, page 47
26
EU picture of the “The Perfect Storm”
Source: Future of Transport, EU White Paper, February 2009
Freight Transport Passenger Transport
Divisions of Road Congestion & Causes
Generally 50-50 measure
Bottlenecks &
Recurring
Congestion
40% Traffic
Accidents / Incidents
25%
Special Events Signal Timing
Road Works
Bad
Weather
10%
15%
5% 5%
Source: “Investment Opportunities for managing Transportation Performance through Technology” US DOT ITS JPO, January 2009.
50% can be solved by ITS; 50% is solved by Demand Management measures
29
“We can't solve problems by using
the same kind of thinking we used
when we created them. ”
Albert Einstein
Changing Attributes of Future Next
Generation Mobility
Car focused, user-focused
Limited service model
Internal Agency focus
Single payment method
Limited integrated network
Financially subsidized
Closed architecture
Basic Informational
Management
Today Holistic travel focus for the client
Expanded shared service model
Public & private partners
Multi-media payment methods
Extensive & multi-modal network
Public & private revenue
generation
Open architecture
Advanced & highly integrated
Information Management
Tomorrow
Future Mobility
Future Mobility means more than just commuting or single purpose journey. Analysis of local issues and industry trends demonstrates that Energy, Environmental Impacts, Commercialization, Information Management and Social Policy will drive change and create true Customer Choice and tangible value to users and providers alike.
Oregon VMT - The next Generation
RUFTF — Joint Senate/House, Republican/Democratic, Public/Private committee
RUF Pilot Project (’05-’06) — Successful demonstration of a transition strategy for paying mileage at the pump
HB2328—Legislation to mandate VMT tax for EV/PIHV/HV starting 2015 using location-base and non-location-based technology solution in an open system architecture model
SB2138 — Senate Bill to empower RUFTF and ODOT to fund continued development and pilot tests for VMT.
Revenues are not keeping pace with VMT growth
1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
-100%
-50%
0
50%
100%
150%
200% Vehicle Miles Traveled
Population
2006
Gas Tax Revenue
Comparison of approaches - USA Washington State — In PSRC Vision 2040 Plan, a movement to charging all vehicles
on all roads via:
HOV to HOT Conversion
Tolling of Bridges
Facility charging on previous HOT facilities
All Vehicles by distance based charges
Oregon — Integrated RUC into State ITS Architecture for Open Systems
Leverage Commercial Vehicle Experience
Start with VMT for EV/PIHV/HV and design state wide system; add vehicle groups
as system expands.
Add Toll Roads and Bridges as needed via PPP and State Projects (Mostly bridges)
Add Express Lanes on approaches to major centers
ODOT-OIPP “TRUE” System
The TRUE Device in the truck records the following:
Latitude and Longitude Coordinates Date and Time Unit ID Number Odometer Vehicle Weight/Axle Combination
Public Concerns with Pilot Test
Privacy Discomfort with technology
Age related tendency
A government mandated device
Confidence in System & Government Efficiency
Fairness
Perceptions of large and costly
Bureaucracy
Provide choices to motorists Flat Rate
Rate Equity
VRUC System Objectives
Make the system simple and easy to use
Design the data collection and payment system to
access existing processes familiar and acceptable to
the public
Provide choices to motorists
“Closed System” Characteristics
•An internally integrated system
controlled by a single entity with
essential components that cannot be
substituted by other external
components, which could perform
the same functions.
“Open System” Characteristics
An integrated system based on
common standards and an operating
system accessible to the marketplace
whereby components performing
the same function can be readily
substituted or provided by multiple
providers.
Commercialization Opportunities will drive economic growth,
productivity & user choice and flexibility beyond traditional
revenue models
Customers: Increased convenience & new retail options through value-rich propositions Providers: Positive revenue supports expansion, job creation & improved services
Retailers: Increased brand awareness, sales and leverage of end-to-end transport value chain Government: Decreased subsidies to transportation, better long-term planning of infrastructure and O&M
Oregon VMT - A simple Mandate
Motorists: mandated to periodically provide mileage data to billing agency User Choice: Motorists choose manner of compliance from approved methods Undifferentiated mileage charged a single, composite rate. Differentiated mileage charged by itemized components of composite rate Commercial Partners: Trusted Third Party Service Providers supply account management, location-based technology and value added services