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Rodel D. Lasco University of the Philippines
INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATECHANGE IMPACTS, ADAPTATION AND VULNERABILITY IN WATERSHED AREASAND COMMUNITIES IN SE ASIA (AS21)
Rodel D. LascoUniversity of the Philippines
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Introduction
Philippines: > 70% of the total land area lies within watersheds
421 principal river basinsIrrigate > 1.5 M ha of agricultural lands Hydropower major energy source18-20M people living in uplandsIndonesia: most of watersheds in Java
are already at critical stage
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Landuse change in watersheds
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Project objectives
Assess the impacts of climate change to water resources, forest ecosystems, and social systems
Conduct integrated vulnerability assessment of natural and social systems
Develop adaptation strategies Promote stakeholder participation Contribute to peer reviewed literatureHelp build capacity of local scientists
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Research Team
Philippines: University of the Philippines at Los Baños (UPLB)Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR)
Prof. Dr. Rodel D. LascoProf. Dr. Rex Victor O. CruzDr. Juan M. PulhinDENR representative
Indonesia: Institute Pertanian Bogor Dr. Rizaldi BoerDr. Ekawati S. Wahyuni Ir
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Key PartnersDr. Meine van Noordwijk
International Center for Research in Agroforestry (ICRAF), Bogor, Indonesia
Dr. Josep CanadellGCTE, Australia
Scientists from Vietnam, Laos and CambodiaNational government agencies, NGOs and
people’s organizations
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Methods
study will focus on a watershed each in the Philippines (Pantabangan watershed) and Indonesia (Tulang Bawang Watershed).
Stakeholders will be involved at various steps of the research process
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The Pantabangan Watershed
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Research Framework
Climate change scenario
Biophysical factors
THE WATERSHED SYSTEM
Forest/carbon budget
WaterBudget
Land use and land cover change
Socio-economic political factors
Local communities
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Climate scenario: MAGICC-SCENGEN
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Table 1. Precipitation anomalies of DJF and JJA in 2080 using SRESA2 and SRESB2 scenarios for nine General Circulation Models in one part of Citarum Watershed
•Scenari
o•Mont
hs•CGCM2
•CSIRO-mk2
•CSM-1.3
•ECHam4
•GFDL-
R15b •MRI2
•CCSR/
NIES2
•DOE-PCM
•HadCM3
•A2 •DJF•-
9.16 •5.09•-
0.23 •-7.3•52.2
1 •10.69 •10.62 •2.18 •3.65
•A2 •JJA•-
8.28 •12.54
•-12.6
3 •-44.92•-
23.83 •5.61 •-5.08 •10.04•-
27.38
•B2 •DJF•-
6.52 •-2.82•-
7.56 •4.02•-
2.05 •7.44 •-0.25 •-2.8 •10.72
•B2 •JJA
•-15.7
2 •12.68
•-10.0
1 •-13.82•-
41.68 •7.85•-
15.74 •19.05•-
14.51
Source: Provided by Xian Fu (2002).
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Land Use/Cover Change: The CLUE Model (Verlag, 2002)
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Forest ecosystems: carbon
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The CO2-Fix Model
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Water Resources: OVER-ALL VIC Model(Link with AS07 Snidvongs et al.)
Liang et al. (1994)
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River Network in Dynamic Routing Model
Lohmann et al. (1996)
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DATA For Model
Data for VIC ModelData for VIC Model Forcing Data
Precipitation Maximum
Temperature Minimum
Temperature Wind speed
Template Data Soil property Land cover Elevation
Data for Routing Model Elevation Stream Network Discharge Data
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Human dimension
Impacts and adaptation of local communities Primary and secondary data Field reconnaissance and establishment of
rapport Participatory vulnerability and adaptation
assessment Present vulnerability and adaptation of local
communities to climate variability and extremes
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Human dimension (cont)
combination of participatory techniques such as stakeholder analysis, time line and community mapping
These techniques will be complemented by interviews of households
future impacts of climate change will be assessed based on the local people’s experiences and responses to past climate variability and extremes
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Capacity Building
The training/workshop on climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability November 25 to December 8, 2002
6 participants from Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam
Small research grants provided
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Discussion with agriculture extension workers and farmers at Bandung District, Indonesia
STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT
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NPC/NIA Briefing, Pantabangan, Philippines
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DENR Briefing, Philippines
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CLSU Briefing for LGU, Philippines
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Thank you!