Post on 24-Feb-2016
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Skills: noneConcepts: technology refinement versus technology shift, progress in processing and memory, storage, and communication technology, pre-electronic computers
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Technology progress
Where does this topic fit?
• Internet concepts– Applications– Technology– Implications
• Internet skills– Application development– Content creation– User skills
Information technologies
Processing and memory
Storage
Communication
Technology refinement and technology shifts
Technology refinement
1905
Technology refinement
1903
First flight
Technology shift
Technology shift
Storage progress
960 bits 274,877,906,944 bits
Shift or refinement?
Storage technology shift
From punch cards to magnetic recording
1956• 5 million 6-bit characters• 50 two-foot-diameter disks
2009• 320 billion 8-bit bytes• 1.8 inch disk
Technology improvement – magnetic storage
Shift or refinement?
Storagetechnology shifts
2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e
HDD .09 .08 .07 .06 .06 .06
2.5” SSD .99 .68 .55 .39 .24 .17
Storage: cost per gigabyte ($) DRAM Exchange
Technology refinement/shift
Four ways to store bits – storage technology shifts
Processing technology shifts – five technologies
Processing progress
8 on/off switches 2 billion on/off switches
Shift or refinement?
Memory goes here
http://ed-thelen.org/comp-hist/vs-univac-mercury-memory.html
Communication progress
100 bits per second
40 billion bits per second
Progress enables new data types
Data type Decade
Numeric 1950s
Alphanumeric 1960s
Text 1970s
Image 1990s
Speech 2000s
Music 2000s
Video 2000s
HD video 2010s
Charles Babbage
IBM 602Vannevar Bush
Atansoff-Berry
Before the programmable, electronic computer
The bottom line
Summary
Self-study questions
1. We looked at information storage, processing and communication technology. What other technologies are undergoing dramatic improvement?
2. If the first cars got only 1 mile per gallon, and that doubled every two years, what would our mileage have been 20 years later? Thirty years later?
3. What have been some of the applications made possible by improved IT in the last five years?
4. What have been some of the implications of IT progress for individuals? 5. What have been some of the implications of IT progress for
organizations? 6. What have been some of the implications of IT progress for society? 7. What sorts of changes might you see during your lifetime?
ResourcesRay Kurzweil is controversial and very optimistic about the technology progress (IT and other) and its implications for the future: http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns
There is much more on Kurzweil’s Web site: http://www.kurzweilai.net/
Gordon Moore published a widely quoted article predicting that the number of transistors on an economically feasible integrated chip would double every 18-24 months. This is called “Moore’s Law:” ftp://download.intel.com/museum/Moores_Law/Articles-Press_Releases/Gordon_Moore_1965_Article.pdf
For more on Moore’s Law, see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore's_law
Wolfram Alpha Moore’s law calculator: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=moore's+law
A short article on the discovery of the transistor: http://focus.aps.org/story/v23/st16
New York Times article on an early demonstration of television: http://www.mindfully.org/Reform/Test-TV-NYT-8apr27.htm
Video of Ivan Sutherland demonstrating Sketchpad: http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ivan+sutherland+sketchpad&aq=f
Two videos on the first transistor and the way transistors work: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdYHljZi7yshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvrjIJw3OSU&feature=related