Post on 16-Apr-2020
transcript
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200,000 years of humanity:
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150,000 hunter-gatherer
45,000 farming, agriculture
4,800 trade, commerce
150 industrialisation
50 computerisation
next digitalisation &
augmentation
3What is digital disruption?
Gerd Leonhard- Futurist Speaker -TFA Studios with Accenture
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A Provocation
How do we respond to the following disruption challenges posed by the
proliferation of new digital technologies:
i. Development and application of a consistent and efficient digital
design strategy (beyond BIM?);
ii. Adoption (and trust) of machine learning and advanced analytics;
iii. The introduction of new
“construction” techniques.
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“We always overestimate the
change that will occur in the
next two years and
underestimate the change that
will occur in the next ten…
…don’t let yourself be lulled
into inaction.”
Bill Gates
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Data= Collaboration
Pro
curem
ent
Des
ign
Supply ChainSafety
The key is to harness the data
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1. Digital surveying and data capture
• Drones / aerial imaging and
analysis
• Laser scanning
• Handheld scanning devices
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2. Machine learning and advanced analytics
Harnessing the knowledge from every piece of
data & information that’s ever been
produced
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3. Industrialisation of construction
• Prefabrication and modular
construction
• Additive manufacturing
• Robotics
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4. Digital collaboration, design and modelling
• Augmented reality
• Enhanced modelling and gamification
• Field technology and sensing devices
• Generative design
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Whatever happened to BIM?
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• Practical application from mid 1980s
• Today, still largely reliant on Government sponsorship
• Why are we still not working wholly in a BIM world?
• Education / misunderstanding – software versus collaboration
• Benefits propaganda - versus sensible investment discussions
• Intellectual Property – outdated views on value
“We’ll be succeeding when we stop
talking about BIM”
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PPVC - Singapore
Prefabricated Prefinished Volumetric Construction (PPVC) is a key enabler
of the Building & Construction Authority (BCA)’s strategic priority to
transform the industry.
Aim is to double construction productivity increases from
1.5-2% annually (2011-15) to 2.5-4% annually (2016-20)
21 PPVC projects across various sectors. Includes the
first 2 public housing PPVC projects by the
Housing and Development Board (HDB), which
is responsible for over 80% of Singapore’s
residential dwellings.
PPVC encompasses a triumvirate of strategies
involving a whole of government approach to
modernise the property industry:
i. enhance Quality of Workforce
ii. adoption of Productive Technologies
iii. facilitate Supply Chain Integration
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Potential Suppliers will need to secure an in-principle acceptance (IPA) of their product
through a 9-stage approval process from the multi-agency Building Innovation Panel
comprising 9 Government regulatory agencies which scrutinize all aspects, including:
i. design,
ii. material
selection,
iii. manufacturing
iv. transportation
v. safe installation
vi. maintainability.
PPVC developments will need to undergo statutory structural inspections every 10-years.
PPVC – approval process
Step 1
submit PPVC
system for
evaluation
Step 1
submit PPVC
system for
evaluation
Step 2
Agency - will it
improve
productivity
Step 2
Agency - will it
improve
productivity
Step 3
present system
to agencies
Step 3
present system
to agencies
Step 4
Authority seeks
feedback from
agencies
Step 4
Authority seeks
feedback from
agencies
Step 5
Applicant
addresses
feedback
Step 5
Applicant
addresses
feedback
Step 6
Applicant final
presentation to
Authority
Step 6
Applicant final
presentation to
Authority
Step 7
Applicant
addresses final
comments
Step 7
Applicant
addresses final
comments
Step 8
Authority issues
in-principle
acceptance
Step 8
Authority issues
in-principle
acceptance
Step 9
Authority
publishes on
website
Step 9
Authority
publishes on
website
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The PPVC strategy establishes KPIs to ensure
that the quantum of off-site manufacturing is
maximised:
PPVC – Manufacturing Elements
Element Minimum level of off-site completion
Floor finishes 80%
Wall finishes 100%
Painting 100% base coat (final coat is allowed on-site)
Windows – frame & glazing 100%
Doors 100% (door leaf installation allowed on-site)
Wardrobes & cabinets 100% (door installation allowed on-site)
M&E (incl water & sanitary pipes,
electrical conduits & ducting)
100% (end-user equipment and fixture installation
allowed on-site)
Electrical sockets & switches 100% (light fitting installation allowed on-site)
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PPVC – four key assessment criterion:
Product• System Type (Concrete, Steel
Frame, Hybrid)
• Status of BCA IPA and MAS
approvals
• Some Technical Considerations:
• Concrete Walls preferred over
Drywall – based on homeowner
feedback
• Concrete PBUs are generally more
cost effective, particularly for
buildings over 10-storeys
• Length of Loadbearing Walls
/Columns – inhibits future renovation
• Water-tightness – Prevention of
water ingress and drainage details
Corporate
Profile
• Shareholders
(Parent Company)
• Financial Standing
• ISO Qualification
• Safety Record
Commercials
• Competitiveness
• Advance payments
• Warranty
obligations
• Willingness to take
on a Supply &
Install contract
Capability• In-house design and
external PE competency
• Standing with BCA
(influence on project
permitting approval)
• Location of manufacturing –
increased risk during
transportation and
verification of compliance
with Singapore code if
manufactured overseas,
particularly in China
• Location of trade fit-out and
finishing – ideally this would
be carried out at the
manufacturing facility to
avoid double-handling
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PPVC – Opportunities and Threats:
Potential Opportunities
Levels playing field: superstructure structural
system & costs .
Time savings: reduced cost, less time exposure
to safety risks in delivery & weather delays.
Greatly reduced on-site manpower – reduced
exposure to safety risks, reduction in site
amenity requirements.
Overall productivity improvements of 20% +
Reduced exposure to subcontractor poor
performance, insolvency and administration.
Increased quality and consistency .. Greatly reduced onsite waste.
Less materials storage and multiple materials handling logistics.
Ability to incorporate more energy efficient and sustainably
sourced materials.
Greatly reduced noise, dust and disruption to neighbours
(particularly on Canvas given newly completed surrounding
residential/HDB’s).
Focuses effort on confirming layouts earlier as PPVC design
needs to be finalized early due to lead time for fabrication.
Potential to deconstruct for re-location and re-use.
Potential Threats
More costly with generally accepted view that
the Direct Costs are between 10% - 20%
higher than conventional construction.
New to the Singapore market and the wider
construction supply chain.
Residential market acceptance of lightweight
drywall PPVCs is still in its infancy.
Reliance on a large Supplier / Super-
subcontractor (potentially 30% - 40% of D&C
cost) will necessitate a degree of construction
oversight and supervision off-site.
Delivery and site logistics planning are critical
Additional design considerations and detailing
not customary in conventional design.
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PPVC – summary:
Targeted reduction of foreign workers from 300,000
to 200,000 by 2020
Annual increase in productivity doubled by 2020
Increase in high-skilled workers from 40% to
60% by 2020
Focus on increasing cost of construction site
labour to force adoption of technology and Design
for Manufacturing and Assembly (DfMA) methods
Emphasis on Green-collar talent development –
people skilled in digital processes
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New ‘Land sale’ Project
Complex Site adjacent to MRT
station
Land Area = 25,000 m2
Development GFA max = 90,000 m2
Residential = 700 units.
Retail max = 15,000 m2
Commercial max = 12,000 m2
Community = 6000 m2
Police Station = 2000 m2
Minimum use of PPVC shall be 65%
of residential building
BCA Chief Dr John Keung
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The Future in Summary
• It’s about the data
• Design will become faster
• Manufacturing will become pre-eminent
• Construction sites will focus on assembly
• Traditional construction companies will be threatened
• The project team in 5 years will contain roles not yet thought of
• We are seeing the convergence of efficiency and technology
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Two things to consider:
1. If you can think of it, somebody, somewhere, is already
doing it
2. We are on the cusp of a new revolution
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