Sangita Kulathinal, University of Helsinki & INSEED organization and Minna Säävälä, Väestöliitto

The global spread of the two child norm:

Examples from India

Launching seminar ’Precarious family formation’,

Väestöliitto, Helsinki 19th April 2012

The two ’billionaires’

• India population 1.2 billion (2011 Census)• China population 1.3 billion

o 36 % of the world’s population lives in China and India

o India expected to pass China’s population by 2025

• Most populous state Uttar Pradesh: 200 million people, more than in Brazil

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Population projections: India till 2065

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm

’000

Indian population scenario

• Total Fertility Rate 2.6 children per woman (est. 2011)

• Wide regional differences: o Northern ’Hindi belt’: still high fertility of 3-4 children o Southern and Western states: mostly replacement

level fertility or below 2.1 children

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Two-child norm in India

• Long history of national population policies• Slogan ’Small family is a happy family’• The key is social development, not indoctrination

in a democratic country

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• Two child norm has been adopted o in most urban areas, o in large parts of the rural areas in the country o in all socio-economic groups in South and West

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Small family, happy family

We two, ours two

We two, ours two

If girl child is brutely killed then where will you get brides from?

Unintended consequence of the two child norm

• Fertility decline in starkly patriarchal societies:o A son has to be secured

• Gender imbalance in 0-6 year-olds growing• Situation not as grave as in China, a later

phenomenon• Will affect marriage market• But: will India follow the path of China?

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Child sex ratio worsened continuously

1991 2001 2011

India 945 927 914

Maharashtra 946 913 883

Source: Census of India

n.b. Girls to 1000 boys aged 0 to 6

Sub-study in India

• Survey data and qualitative interviews in two slums in Nashik, Maharashtra, Western India

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Mumbai

Nashik

We ask in our study

• Is the two child norm going to lead to spread of one child norm, like in China?

• What are slum youth thinking of the future and what are their family formation intentions?

• Are people aware of the emerging future problem of finding brides? Is marriage age and system of spouse selection changing?

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India is moving towards“We two, ours one”

Thank you for your attention!

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