Post on 22-Dec-2021
transcript
Southern California
Earthquake Center
Goals of the Annual Meeting
• Discuss SCEC collaborative research
– Learn about new advances in earthquake science
– Share research results and collaboration plans
• Assess progress on key objectives of the Science Plan and
prepare for the final year of SCEC4
– Six fundamental problems of earthquake science (Beroza)
• Special Fault Study Areas
• SCEC Community Models
– Communication, Education & Outreach (Benthien)
• Gear up for the SCEC5 proposal
– To be submitted to NSF & USGS by Oct 1, 2015
• Have some fun in the sun!
Southern California
Earthquake Center
• 568 pre-registrants
• 140 first-time attendees
• 295 poster abstracts
Scientific sessions:
Monday:• Special Fault Study Areas
• SCEC Community Models
Tuesday:• Earthquakes—From the Lab
to the Field
• Physics-Based Forecasting
and Ground Motions
Wednesday:• Connecting Hazard to RiskWe request that session chairs and speakers make a special effort to
encourage the participation of students and early-career scientists in all
discussions!
Southern California
Earthquake Center
• AVAILABLE FOR
DOWNLOAD
• http://scec.org/sites/default/fi
les/SCEC2015Program.pdf
Southern California
Earthquake Center
New SCEC Website!• Drupal-based content management system
• Supports development of
Science and Collaboration Plans
Proposal submission and review process
Project reporting and publications
Help us add content to the new site: individual profiles, working group activities, etc.
In SCEC5, the website will serve as curated archive of Center knowledge and
resources, as well as a virtual meeting place for researchers and other users to
discover experts, research results, and useful knowledge for promoting community
preparedness and resilience.
Southern California
Earthquake Center
SCEC Member Institutions (Sept 1, 2014)
10
For those of you attending this meeting who don’t
see your institution on this list, please note that it’s
easy to apply.
We just need a letter from a cognizant official (e.g., your
department chair or dean) that requests this status and
appoints an institutional representative who will act as the
point-of-contact with SCEC.
• One new core institution:
– Texas A&M University (Patrick Fulton),
effective February 1, 2016
• Two new participating institutions:
– University of Canterbury, NZ (Brendon Bradley)
– University of Bristol, UK (Max Werner)
Southern California
Earthquake Center
Southern California Earthquake CenterCore Institutions & Board of Directors
Southern California
Earthquake Center
Southern California Earthquake CenterExternal Advisory Council
CEO Planning Committee
Southern California
Earthquake CenterSCEC4 OrganizationSCEC Director
Board of Directors
Planning
Committee
External Advisory
Council
CEO Program
Earthquake Geology
Tectonic Geodesy
Seismology
Fault & Rupture
Mechanics
Earthquake
Forecasting &
Predictability
Stress & Deformation
Over Time
SoSAFE
Unified Structural
Representation
Eqk Engineering
Implementation
Interface
K-14 Earthquake
Education Initiative
Experiential
Learning & Career
Advancement
Working Group on
California Eqk
Probabilities
Community Modeling
Environment
Collaboratory for
the Study of Eqk
Predictability
Special ProjectsDisciplinary
Groups Focus Groups CEO Activities
Collaboratory for
Interseismic Sim
& Modeling
Center
Administration
Information
Technology
Public Education
& Preparedness
Ground Motion
Prediction
Computational
Science
Central California
Seismic Project
Southern California
Earthquake Center
Southern California Earthquake CenterScience Working Groups & Planning Committee
Southern California
Earthquake Center
SCEC Special Projects
• Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3) by
WGCEP
• Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP)
• Community Modeling Environment (CME)
– Broadband platform
– CyberShake platform
– F3DT platform
– High-F platform
SRL Special Focus on
the BBP, Jan 2015
Southern California
Earthquake Center
SCEC Special Project Initiatives
• Advancing Extreme-Scale Computing for Earthquake System Science (AXCESS)
– Awarded a $2.2M SI2 grant by NSF/ACI
• Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM)
– Awarded a $2.0M grant by the W. M. Keck Foundation
• Central California Seismic Project (CCSP)
– An evolving partnership with PG&E
• Executive Science Director for Special Projects
– formulate and manage special-project plans
– coordinate special projects with the core program
– develop new special projects
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Millions
ServiceUnitsonNSFTeraGrid/XSEDEResources
CPUHoursonBlueWaters
ServiceUnitsonNSFYellowstone
ServiceUnitsonDOEINCITEResources
ServiceUnitsonUSCResources
NSF XSEDE
NCSA Blue Waters
NCAR Yellowstone
DOE INCITE
USC HPCC
362M SUs
Southern California
Earthquake Center
SCEC Executive Science Director for Special Projects
Christine Goulet
Southern California
Earthquake Center
Intensity
MeasuresGround-Motion
Prediction EqnEarthquake Rupture
Forecast
Collaboratory for Interseismic Simulation and Modeling (CISM)
Physics-based
simulations
Ground
MotionsGround Motion
Simulator
extended
ERF
CyberShakesynthetic
seismograms
Earthquake Rupture
Simulator
RSQsim
Empirical
models
UCERF3 NGA GMPEs response
spectra
Comprehensive forecast
• Develop a collaboratory where interdisciplinary teams can
create system-specific models for time-dependent
earthquake forecasting that are comprehensive, physics-
based, data calibrated, and prospectively testable
– Develop rupture simulators and ground-motion simulators
using California as the primary test bed
– Combine time-dependent earthquake rupture forecasting
models with ground motion prediction models to forecast
exceedance probabilities
– Test models in CSEP and by other means
• Develop a high-performance, workflow-oriented
cyberinfrastructure that facilitates model verification,
simulation, validation, and data assimilation
– Provide researchers with advanced tools for integrating
heterogeneous sets of scientific software modules into
testable forecasting models
– Maintain a high-performance computing environment in
which system-level models can be rapidly executed and
analyzed
• Initiate WMKF Fellowships in Earthquake Forecasting
Research
– Sponsor CISM participation of early-career scientists
Funded for period 2015.07-2018.07 by a $2M grant from
W.M. Keck Foundation
Southern California
Earthquake Center
Central California Seismic Project
Study Area
F3DT
domain
CyberShake
domain
• Scientific Goal:
– Assess effectiveness of physics-based seismic
wavefield modeling in reducing the epistemic
uncertainties in path effects and other hazard-estimation
components at low exceedance probabilities, using
Central California as a natural laboratory
• Objectives and Tasks:
1. Gather new data from the land environment
2. Gather new data from the marine environment
3. Analyze data for information on source and path effects
and invert for anelastic structure using F3DT
4. Assimilate data into seismic hazard forecasts
5. Use basic research results to improve physics-based
seismic hazard models
6. Measure and validate reduction of epistemic uncertainties
in seismic hazard forecasts
Southern California
Earthquake Center
2015 ShakeOut Earthquake Drills
Participation History (worldwide)2014: 26.5 million (+ NM, KS, FL, Quebec, Yukon,
more)
2013: 25.0 million (+ Southeast, Northeast, MT, WY,
CO)
2012: 19.5 million (+ Japan, New Zealand, UT, WA, AZ)
2011: 12.5 million (+ Central US, BC, OR)
2010: 8.0 million (+ Nevada and Guam)
2009: 6.9 million (+ Northern California)
2008 5.4 million (Southern California)
2015 Official ShakeOut Regions28 Regions worldwide
22 U.S. regions spanning 51 states & territories
55 additional countries with independent
registrations (individuals, schools, etc.)
Key Facts
• Participants practice “Drop, Cover, and Hold On”
and other aspects of their emergency plans.
• Register at www.ShakeOut.org
• Largest component “America’s PrepareAthon,”
sponsored by FEMA
States, Territories, Provinces & Countries Participating in
the 2015 Great ShakeOut Earthquake Drills
Southern California
Earthquake Center
SCEC/CEO Assistant Director for Strategic Partnerships
Sharon Sandow
Southern California
Earthquake Center
SCEC5 Proposal
• Science Plan developed by the non-USGS members of the SCEC
Planning Committee and Board of Directors
– Extensive input from tiger-team white papers and the community at large
– BoD-PC committee abstracted a strategic framework for prioritizing SCEC5
research objectives
– Cast in terms of 5 basic questions of earthquake science
– Questions addressed through an interdisciplinary program comprising 14
topics in 4 main thematic areas
• Proposal to be submitted by Oct 1, 2015
– Site review is scheduled for January 11-14, 2016
– Funding decision before next Annual Meeting?
Southern California
Earthquake Center
Five Basic Questions of Earthquake Science
Q1. How are faults loaded on different temporal and spatial scales?
Q2. What is the role of off-fault inelastic deformation on strain
accumulation, dynamic rupture, and radiated seismic energy?
Q3. How do the evolving structure, composition and physical
properties of fault zones and surrounding rock affect shear
resistance to seismic and aseismic slip?
Q4. How do strong ground motions depend on the complexities and
nonlinearities of dynamic earthquake systems?
Q5. In what ways can system-specific studies enhance our general
understanding of earthquake predictability?
Southern California
Earthquake Center
Topics of the SCEC5 Science Plan
A. Modeling the Fault System
1. Stress and Deformation Over Time
2. Special Fault Study Areas: Focus on
Earthquake Gates
3. Community Models
4. Big Data
B. Understanding Earthquake Processes
5. Beyond Elasticity
6. Modeling Earthquake Source Processes
7. Ground Motion Simulation
8. Induced Seismicity
C. Characterizing Seismic Hazards
9. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard
Analysis
10. Operational Earthquake Forecasting
11. Earthquake Early Warning
12. Post-Earthquake Rapid Response
D. Reducing Seismic Risk
13. Risk to Distributed Infrastructure
14. Physics of the Geotechnical Layer
Southern California
Earthquake Center
The SCEC Partnership
National
Partners
International
Partners
Core
Institutions
Participating
Institutions