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Scenario analysis for understanding the future of dietary seafood intake: integration of ecological and nutritional
modelling approaches
Jessica A. Gephart
Postdoctoral Fellow, The National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center
Christopher D. Golden
Research Scientist, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Bapu Vaitla
Postdoctoral fellow, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Global Workshop on Nutrition-sensitive Fish Agri-food Systems,
Siem Reap, Cambodia December 8, 2017
The THETIS project
• Ecosystem transformation economic effects on producers and
consumers human nutrition and health
• Motivation: declining fish catch
• Producing national and global models to evaluate scenarios of large scale
pressures on fish for nutrition
• Goal to provide evidence and prompt discussion around scenarios for
policymaking and advocacy
• Collaboration of universities, NGOs, and policymakers
<50% -51 – -30% -31 – 10% -10 – 6% -5 - -1% 0 – 4% 5 – 19% 20 – 49% 50 – 100% >100%
Cheung et al. (2014)
Climate change and fisheries
Change in maximum catch potential 2041–2060 relative to 1981 – 2000
Fish declines and nutrition dependence
Golden et al. (2016), Nature
1. Useful for dealing with uncertainty
2. Presents range of possible futures
3. Prompts dialogue about desirable futures
4. Useful for charting courses
Why study scenarios?
Percent change relative to 1981 – 2000
Catch-climate change projection
(Cheung et al., 2014)
Percent change relative to 1981 – 2000
Catch-climate change projection
Country economic models
Partial equilibrium model
based on AsiaFish model
Global economic model
Trade and diet
substitution scenarios
(Cheung et al., 2014)
Percent change relative to 1981 – 2000
Catch-climate change projection
Country economic models
Partial equilibrium model
based on AsiaFish model
Global economic model
Nutrition impacts
GENuS Database:
See Smith et al. (2016) PlosOne(Cheung et al., 2014)
Trade and diet
substitution scenarios
Country Example: Bangladesh
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
201
0
201
2
201
4
201
6
201
8
202
0
202
2
202
4
202
6
202
8
203
0
203
2
203
4
203
6
203
8
204
0
204
2
204
4
204
6
204
8
205
0
Pro
ject
ed c
atc
h, a
ll m
od
eled
sp
ecie
s,
RC
P 8
.5
Subsistence
Artisanal
Industrial
Projected total catch by fishing sector
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050
Pro
ject
ed
ca
tch
, by
ta
xo
n, a
rtis
an
al
sect
or,
RC
P 8
.5
Others
Hilsa shad
Silver pomfret
FourfingerthreadfinBombay duck
Indo-Pacific kingmackerelIndian mackerel
Acetes shrimps
Thryssas
Threadfins
Drums, croakers
Sea catfishes,coblers
Projected artisanal catch by taxon
-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
BH3
BH4
BH5
BH6
BH7
BH8
BH9
BH10
BH11
BH12
BH13
BH14
BH15
BH16
BH17
BH18
ANNUAL CHANGE (%) IN TOTAL FISH CONSUMPTION
Urban
Rural
Changes in urban & rural consumption
Scenario combinations of:
• Climate scenario
• Aquaculture growth rate
• Economic growth rate
• Inland capture trend
• Aquaculture demand
Rural iron-deficient population Urban iron-deficient population
Changes in nutrition
Rural zinc-deficient population Urban zinc-deficient population
Changes in nutrition
Percent change relative to 1981 – 2000
Catch-climate change projection
Country economic models
Partial equilibrium model
based on AsiaFish model
Global economic model
Nutrition impacts
GENuS Database:
See Smith et al. (2016) PlosOne(Cheung et al., 2014)
Trade and diet
substitution scenarios
Global scenarios
National catch
decline
Global distribution
Tra
de o
pen
ness
Nutritional Need-based GDP
Pro
tect
ion
ism Countries meet own needs
and remaining seafood
distributed through trade
based on need
Countries meet own needs
and remaining seafood
distributed through trade
based on GDP
Fre
e All seafood is distributed
through trade based on need
All seafood is distributed
through trade based on
GDP
Trade
• How much is replaced?
• Composition of
substitutes (including
farmed fish)Substitution
in diets
Global scenarios
National catch
decline
Global distribution
Tra
de o
pen
ness
Nutritional Need-based GDP
Pro
tect
ion
ism Countries meet own needs
and remaining seafood
distributed through trade
based on need
Countries meet own needs
and remaining seafood
distributed through trade
based on GDP
Fre
e All seafood is distributed
through trade based on need
All seafood is distributed
through trade based on
GDP
Trade
• How much is replaced?
• Composition of
substitutes (including
farmed fish)Substitution
in diets
Nutrition
outcomes
Interactive Management Tool
Tool built by Andrea Julca, UMD
Interactive Management Tool
Tool built by Andrea Julca, UMD
Summary
Scenario analysis:
1. Useful for dealing with uncertainty
2. Presents range of possible futures
3. Prompts dialogue about desirable
futures
4. Useful for charting courses