Complexity, Scarcity and the School of the Future

Issues in the world are getting more complex

Natural resource scarcity

US debt crisis

EURO debt crisis

Permanent austerity the way forward?

• Originally refers to “retrenchment” of the social welfare system

• Are world governments heading towards permanent austerity?

• How does this impact on education policy?

Government Policy

• policy is set in increasingly complex settings

• don’t have all the answers

• planning 25-30 years ahead - strategic planning

Tools

• scenario planning

• horizon scanning

Scenario planning

• Scenario 1: continued prosperity – status quo

• Scenario 2: permanent austerity (greater accountability of fiscal budget); lack of resources (manmade and others)

Scenario 2: permanent austerity

• Greater leverage on ICT because brick and mortar schools are expensive

• Moore’s law on technology getting cheaper with time and ICT becomes very mobile

• Teachers and students learn from home - telecommuting to save cost

• Interaction with other children and with teachers at a localised community level say with a 10 block radius

• A school without a building - administrative work done online and classes conducted at places of interest say a museum for social studies