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transcript
Science in Forestry: Why does it
sometimes disappoint or even fail
us?
or
The meaning of The meaning of Occam'sOccam's Razor and the Razor and the
dilemma of science in a complex world.dilemma of science in a complex world.
J. P. (Hamish) Kimmins
Canada Research Chair
Modeling the Sustainability of Forest Ecosystems
Department of Forest Sciences
Faculty of Forestry
PIWAS presentation, April 12th, 2006PIWAS presentation, April 12th, 2006
Outline
• The three major components of scienceThe three major components of science
•• Science in forestry Science in forestry –– a basis for policy and a basis for policy and
practicepractice
•• ComplexityComplexity in forestryin forestry
•• EcosystemEcosystem--level decisionlevel decision--support systems at UBCsupport systems at UBC
•• The power of visualizationThe power of visualization
1. The three major
components of science
�� Knowing Knowing –– descriptive, inductive, experiencedescriptive, inductive, experience--based: based:
““what is and has beenwhat is and has been””
�� Understanding Understanding –– hypotheticohypothetico--deductive, analytical, deductive, analytical,
disciplinary, disciplinary, reductionistreductionist: : ““how, whyhow, why””
�� Predicting Predicting –– synthesizing, integrating, projecting: synthesizing, integrating, projecting:
““what might bewhat might be””
Components of Science
The need to balance analysis by synthesis
Problem, issue,
desired outcome
Belief systemsPolicy, practice,
action
Pre-science
Mythology
Components of Science
The need to balance analysis by synthesis
Observations,
experience,
knowledge
Problem, issue,
desired outcome
Foundations
of Science
Policy, practice,
action
Induction
1. Knowing (“soft” science)
Induction
Theory
or
postulate
Components of Science
The need to balance analysis by synthesis
Observations,
experience,
knowledge
Theory
or
postulate
Hypotheses
Problem, issue,
desired outcome
Foundations
of Science
Experimental
observations
Induction
Deduction Hypothesis
testing
ReductionismReductionism
2.Understanding (“hard” science)
Components of Science
The need to balance analysis by synthesis
Observations,
experience,
knowledge
Theory
or
postulate
Hypotheses
Scientific principles Scientific laws
Problem, issue,
desired outcome
Foundations
of Science
Policy, practice,
action
Experimental
observations
Induction
Deduction Hypothesis
testing
ReductionismReductionism
Direct application of
unsynthesized,
reductionist
science
2.Understanding (“hard” science)
Components of Science
The need to balance analysis by synthesis
Observations,
experience,
knowledge
Theory
or
postulate
Hypotheses
Scientific principles Scientific laws
Problem, issue,
desired outcome
Foundations
of Science
Policy, practice,
action
Experimental
observations
Induction
Deduction
Computer
model
Hypothesis
testing
Predictions
Forecasting
Validation
ReductionismReductionism
SynthesisSynthesis
Induction
Scenario analysis
3.Predicting (“soft” science)
2. Science in Forestry
� Knowing – ecosystem classification, inventory, experience
- what but not why
- “rear view mirror” forestry
2. Science in Forestry
� Knowing – ecosystem classification, inventory, experience
� Understanding – analytical forest science and its many sub-
disciplines – how and why
- “jigsaw puzzle” science
Productive Capacity of EcosystemsProductive Capacity of Ecosystems
Leaf area and photosynthetic
efficiency
Net photosynthesis
Net primary production
Net biomass accumulation
Harvestable biomass/energy Harvestable biomass/energy (Humans or other animals)Humans or other animals)
Light
Water
Nutrients
Carbon
allocation
Solar energy
Respiration
Litterfall, plant death,
root death, herbivory
Unharvested
biomass/energy
Canopy
Transpiration
Canopy Interception
Rain
Humus layer
Outflow
Soil B
Soil A
Forest floorpercolation
Soil A percolation
Soil B percolation
Runoff
Snowpack
Throughfall
ForWaDyForWaDyA water A water
balance balance
submodelsubmodel
Understory
Transpiration
Transpiration DeficitIndex
Litter layer
Infiltration
Evaporation
Interflow
CanopyTranspiration
Demand
Snowthroughfall
Snow
Air tempmelt
Radiation
melt
Sublimation
Subsoil
drainage
Nutrient Cycling in a forest ecosystem
Plant
Biomass
Available
Soil
Nutrients
Litter and Soil Organic Matter
Nutrients exist in 3 main
ecosystem pools
Fire
Soil
Leaching
Loss
Loss
Upslope
Seepage
Mineral
Weathering
Input
Input
Precipitation
Inputs
Input
1. Geochemical 1. Geochemical
cyclecycle
Transfers between poolsTransfers between pools
Nutrient
Uptake
Internal
Cycling
Foliar
Leaching
Natural
Mortality
Litterfall
Herbivory
Decomposition
Biological
N Fixation2
Input
2. Biological cycle2. Biological cycle
Loss
Harvest
Site Prep
Loss
Fertilizer
Inputs Input
3. Management activities3. Management activities
2. Science in Forestry
� Knowing – ecosystem classification, inventory, experience
� Understanding – forest science in its many disciplines
� Predicting and forecasting – decision support and planning tools
for policy and management practice
- what might the future hold?
- large spatial and long time scales
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM: Modelling FrameworkModelling Framework
Merchantable Merchantable
VolumeVolume
Ecosystem C Ecosystem C
StorageStorage
Snags (>25cm Snags (>25cm dbhdbh))
Early Seral Shrub Early Seral Shrub
Cover (%)Cover (%)
ProjectionProjection InterpretationInterpretation
StandStand--level Modellevel Model
(FORECAST)(FORECAST)
ForestForest--level Timber Supply Modellevel Timber Supply Model
(ATLAS)(ATLAS)Wildlife Habitat Supply ModelWildlife Habitat Supply Model
((SimForSimFor))
Visualization Visualization
SoftwareSoftware
PolygonPolygon--
BasedBasedRasterRaster--
BasedBased
3. Complexity in Forestry
The art (skill), practice, science and The art (skill), practice, science and
business of managing forest stands and business of managing forest stands and
landscapes to sustain an ecologically landscapes to sustain an ecologically
possible and socially desirable balance possible and socially desirable balance
of values over appropriate spatial and of values over appropriate spatial and
time scales time scales
This is complexThis is complex
The Two Responsibilities of
Forestry
1.1. To change the way in which a forest is managed as the To change the way in which a forest is managed as the
balance of values and environmental services desired balance of values and environmental services desired
from that forest changes.from that forest changes.
2.2. To reject current practices and resist proposed new To reject current practices and resist proposed new
practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and practices that are inconsistent with the ecology and
sociology of the new balance of desired values and sociology of the new balance of desired values and
services over ecologically appropriate temporal and services over ecologically appropriate temporal and
spatial scales.spatial scales.
This is complexThis is complex
Forestry is about peopleForestry is about people-- their values, needs and desires
It is also about sustaining the ecosystems on which
these values, needs and desires are dependent
WoodWood
NonNon--wood productswood products
WaterWater
WildlifeWildlife
EmploymentEmployment
Economics Economics -- wealth creation wealth creation
Energy Energy -- fuelfuel
Spiritual valuesSpiritual values
Environmental protectionEnvironmental protection
AestheticsAesthetics
RecreationRecreation
Biological conservationBiological conservation
Ecosystem processes/carbon budgetsEcosystem processes/carbon budgets
Forestry is a complex, socialForestry is a complex, social--economiceconomic--
environmental endeavorenvironmental endeavor
Complex systems like forestry require Complex systems like forestry require
complex decision support systemscomplex decision support systems
William of William of OccamOccam::
““Do not posit complexity more than necessaryDo not posit complexity more than necessary”” ,,
oror
As simple as possible, but as complex as necessaryAs simple as possible, but as complex as necessary
OccamOccam’’ss RazorRazor
Einstein:Einstein:
““As simple as possible, but no simplerAs simple as possible, but no simpler””
So, how much complexity is enoughSo, how much complexity is enough
Levels of biological
organizationLevels of biological Levels of biological
integrationintegration
Ecosystem
Community
Population
Individual
Organ systems
Organs, tissues
Cell
Sub-cellular
The need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTIONThe need for the ecosystem level : PREDICTION
CC
OO
MM
PP
LL
EE
XX
II
TT
YY
EcosystemEcosystem
IndividualIndividual
CellCell
-- UnderstandingUnderstanding
-- UnderstandingUnderstanding
-- UnderstandingUnderstanding
-- UnderstandingUnderstanding
-- UnderstandingUnderstanding
-------- PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction
-------- PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction
-------- PredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPredictionPrediction
Chinese Fir Yield Decline – an example
of complexity
Declining canopy density – minor vegetation
response and effect on tree growth
Traditional simple (Traditional simple (ClementsianClementsian) model of ) model of
succession: north Vancouver Islandsuccession: north Vancouver Island
Ecosystem
model of
the role of
disturbance
on northern
Vancouver
Island
4. Ecosystem-level decision-
support systems at UBC
Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:Options for forecasting in forestry:
Experience Experience –– the pastthe past
Understanding Understanding –– the presentthe present
Experience + understanding Experience + understanding –– the futurethe future
The question of complexity and
modeling in forestry
� Simple forestry Simple forestry –– timber management timber management -- may only may only
require simple forecasting toolsrequire simple forecasting tools
�� Complex forestry Complex forestry –– multiple values; spatial, multiple values; spatial,
structural, functional diversity structural, functional diversity –– needs needs
appropriately complex models at multiple appropriately complex models at multiple
spatial scalesspatial scales
POSSIBLE FOREST
FUTURES:
watershed landscape
management model
LLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator
Trees Ecotone Open
* Is this a clearcut?
* What will the future
forest species composition be?
* How will Douglas-fir
compete with western
hemlock?
* Will shade tolerant
hardwoods be able to grow?
LLEMS: complex
cutblock simulator
FORCEE:
Individual tree,
complex stand model
FORECASTFORECASTNon-spatial ecosystem
management stand model
Visualization
software – stand and
landscape
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Stand level ecosystem management models:
AVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceAVIGATOR : FORECAST User InterfaceNNFORECASTFORECAST
Non-spatial ecosystem
management stand model
Effect of Douglas-fir over-story on shrub biomass
Timber management table:
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Individual tree, complex stand modelsIndividual tree, complex stand models
FORCEE FORCEE
A spatiallyA spatially--explicit explicit
individual tree, individual tree,
complex stand modelcomplex stand model
Individual tree Individual tree ““footprintsfootprints””
FORCEE: complex stand, multi-value
simulator
e.g. Boreal and e.g. Boreal and
temperate temperate
mixedwoods; mixedwoods;
agroforestryagroforestry
Light and litter Light and litter
““footprintsfootprints””
Soil and Soil and
canopy canopy ““gapsgaps””
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Landscape level ecosystem management model:
LLEMSLLEMS
Local landscape Local landscape
ecosystem ecosystem
management model management model
for complex cut block for complex cut block
design design –– under under
development: development:
NSERCNSERC-- INTERFORINTERFOR
LLEMSLLEMSLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management SimulatorLocal Landscape Ecosystem Management Simulator
TreesTrees EcotoneEcotone OpenOpen
* * Is this a Is this a clearcutclearcut??
* What will the future * What will the future
forest species composition be?forest species composition be?
* * How will DouglasHow will Douglas--fir fir
compete with western compete with western
hemlock?hemlock?
* Will shade intolerant * Will shade intolerant
hardwoods be able to grow?hardwoods be able to grow?
* * Wind, diseases?Wind, diseases?
QuestionsQuestions
Variable RetentionVariable Retention
What Types of Forecasting Tools?What Types of Forecasting Tools?
Landscape management scenario analysis tool for education,
extension and management gaming
POSSIBLE FOREST POSSIBLE FOREST
FUTURES:FUTURES:
Multiple value, watershed Multiple value, watershed
management scenario management scenario
analysis modelanalysis model
Based on FORECAST and Based on FORECAST and
FORWADYFORWADY
5. The Power of
Visualization
� Analytical vs fuzzy logic
� Visual images as an almost universal
communication medium
� The power of movies vs “jigsaw puzzle” science
Landscape Visualization
Forest P ractices Code Scenario
Zoning Scenario
Year 25
Year 25
World Construction Set output
Arrow Lakes TSA IFPA: Lemon Creek
CALP Forester CALP Forester –– Interactive, 3Interactive, 3--D visualization toolD visualization tool
Science in Forestry Conclusions
�� All three components are importantAll three components are important
�� Policy and practice should not be based on Policy and practice should not be based on
““jigsaw puzzlejigsaw puzzle”” science science
�� Prediction systems based on experience and Prediction systems based on experience and
understanding and communicated through understanding and communicated through
visualization should be used to guide forestryvisualization should be used to guide forestry