Post on 27-Jan-2016
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Sea Surface Temperature Changes& Biogeographic Ranges ofCommercial Marine Species
Canadian Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Program Project A515
& WWF
Gail L. Chmura1, Lou Van Guelpen2, Gerhard W. Pohle2, Sarah Vereault1, and Elizabeth Flanary1
1 McGill University & Global Environment and Climate Change Centre2 Huntsman Marine Science Centre / Atlantic Reference Centre
Northeast US Continental Shelf
Newfoundland – Labrador Shelf
Scotian Shelf
www.geog.mcgill.ca/climatechange/www.wwf.ca
February August
For each species the “thermal niche” or “bioclimate envelope” was determined from its geographical distribution (water depths & range in latitude) with respect to satellite-derived (AVHRR) data on sea surface temperatures.
We determined the winter minimum and summer maximum.
We determined future temperatures by adding the change image to this one.
Plotted from temperatures reported in the literature.
Plotted from temperatures derived from distribution data.
Laminaria digitata – reported thermal niche (or range) is -2 to 22°C
Scenarios of Forcing Factors Used – from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
B2forecasts low population growth
and more concern for the environment
A2forecasts high population growth
and less concern for the environmentgreater cumulative emissions of greenhouse gases
(& sulphate aerosols)
WWW.IPCC.ch
2 periods used:
1960-1999 = baseline
2070-2099 = 4°C avg global warming
Plus: 2030-2059 = 2°C avg global warming - see website
New 2005
We used output from global circulation / global climate models – actually Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs)
AOGCMs vary in their number of layers and algorithms for the processes and transfers among the layers.
Hadley Centre
Using geospatial statistics we downscaled the coarse output of each AOGCM
AOGCMs vary in their spatial resolution.
GFDL
(US Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory)
Spatial ResolutionSpatial Resolutionof Models (°lat & long)of Models (°lat & long)
CCCmaCCCma 3.75 x 3.753.75 x 3.75
CCSR/NIESCCSR/NIES 5.6 x 5.65.6 x 5.6
CSIROCSIRO 3.2 x 5.63.2 x 5.6
GFDLGFDL 2.25 x 3.752.25 x 3.75
avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the
period 2070-2099
change in SSTs for that month (at the center of each pixel)
avg Feb SST (or Aug) over the
baseline period 1960-1999
- =
z(u0 )z(u i )d ij
p
i1
n
d ij p
i1
n
change in SSTs
“downscaled”
GFDL grid in vector format.GFDL changefield for February
A2
B2
Feb
ruary
CCCma CSIROCCSR GFDL
A2
B2
Augu
st
Greater differences among models than between scenarios.
change in temp.
Change = 2099 minus the baseline: