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The Horizon Report:
A Hands-On Approach to Putting Theory into
Practice
Wayne Brent, Ph.D., Cyprien Lomas, Ph.D., Ruben R. Puentedura, Ph.D.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 License.
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The Horizon Report
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The 2013 Horizon Report
Time-to-Adoption:
One Year or Less
Time-to-Adoption:
Two to Three Years
Time-to-Adoption:
Four to Five Years
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Patterns
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The 2013 Horizon Report
Time-to-Adoption:
One Year or Less
Time-to-Adoption:
Two to Three Years
Time-to-Adoption:
Four to Five Years
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The 2012 Horizon Report
Time-to-Adoption:
One Year or Less
Time-to-Adoption:
Two to Three Years
Time-to-Adoption:
Four to Five Years
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The 2011 Horizon Report
Time-to-Adoption:
One Year or Less
Time-to-Adoption:
Two to Three Years
Time-to-Adoption:
Four to Five Years
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The 2010 Horizon Report
Time-to-Adoption:
One Year or Less
Time-to-Adoption:
Two to Three Years
Time-to-Adoption:
Four to Five Years
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The 2009 Horizon Report
Time-to-Adoption:
One Year or Less
Time-to-Adoption:
Two to Three Years
Time-to-Adoption:
Four to Five Years
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Metatrends
(Since 2004)
Evolution of a
ubiquitous
platform
Computing in
three
dimensions
Connecting
people through
the network
Communication
between
humans and
machines
Collective
sharing &
generation of
knowledge
Games as
pedagogical
platforms
Shifting content
production to
users
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Social Mobility Visualization Storytelling Gaming
200,000
years
70,000
years
40,000
years
17,000
years
8,000
years
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The Higher Education Context
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What Do You See As Key Trends and Challenges?
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Key Trends (2013 Horizon Report)
• Openness — concepts like open content, open data, and open resources, along
with notions of transparency and easy access to data and information — is
becoming a value.
• Massively open online courses are being widely explored as alternatives and
supplements to traditional university courses.
• The workforce demands skills from college graduates that are more often acquired
from informal learning experiences than in universities.
• There is an increasing interest in using new sources of data for personalizing the
learning experience and for performance measurement.
• The role of educators continues to change due to the vast resources that are
accessible to students via the Internet.
• Education paradigms are shifting to include online learning, hybrid learning, and
collaborative models.
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Significant Challenges (2013 Horizon Report)
• Faculty training still does not acknowledge the fact that digital media literacy
continues its rise in importance as a key skill in every discipline and profession.
• The emergence of new scholarly forms of authoring, publishing, and researching
outpace sufficient and scalable modes of assessment.
• Too often it is education’s own processes and practices that limit broader uptake ofnew technologies.
• The demand for personalized learning is not adequately supported by current
technology or practices.
• New models of education are bringing unprecedented competition to the traditional
models of higher education.
• Most academics are not using new technologies for learning and teaching, nor for
organizing their own research.
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Five Disruptive Forces (Jeff Selingo, Nov. 2012)
• Completion
• Low completion rates
• More skilled jobs
• Flat attainment
• Demographics
• More diversity
• Less prepared
• The swirl
• Sea of Red Ink
• Institutional debt
• State role in higher ed
• Family ability to pay
• Improved Alternatives
•
Next generation learner• Flipped classroom
• The great unbundling
• Value
• What am I learning?
• Will I get a job?
• Make enough to pay debt?
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The Process
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The Steps
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Adapting the Process
First Pass Rankings Create Short List Second Pass Rankings Produce Report
For a set of N answers:give each member sqrt(N)
tokens; each distributestokens between chosen
answers.
Pick top sqrt(N) answerswith most total tokens –
this is the short list.
If M answers are desired:give each member M
tokens; each distributestokens between chosen
short list answers.
Writing team integratestop M answers withresearch materials to
produce report.
Select TeamReview Research
MaterialsGenerate Answer Set
Generate Research
Database
Present Research
Question(s)
Make sure to have a good
mix of technologists,faculty, leaders in thegroup.
Ask group to expand
database, commentary,with question(s) in mind.
Ask group members to
submit answers toquestion(s).
Ask group members to
submit links to materialsof interest, with brief commentary.
e.g. “What technologies
should colleges beactively looking for waysto apply?”
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A “Homegrown Horizon Report” Example
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The Five Questions
• What would you list among the established technologies that learning-
focused institutions should all be using broadly today to support or enhance
teaching, learning, or creative expression?
• What technologies that have a solid user base in consumer, entertainment, or
other industries should learning-focused institutions be actively looking for
ways to apply?
• What are the key emerging technologies you see developing to the point that
learning-focused institutions should begin to take notice during the next 3 to
5 years? What organizations or companies are the leaders in these
technologies?
• What do you see as the key challenge(s) related to teaching, learning, or
creative expression that learning-focused institutions will face during the next
5 years?
• What trends do you expect to have a significant impact on the ways in which
learning-focused institutions approach our core missions of teaching,
research, and service?
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The Question Selected by the Group
(12 Participants)
What are the key emerging technologies (with
associated companies) you see developing to the
point that learning-focused institutions should
begin to take notice during the next 3 to 5 years?
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First Set of N Replies (N=29)
1. Better management tools for the massive amount of information
2. Cloud computing of everything
3. Completely wireless classrooms with all the technology being delivered at quality
comparable to wired technologies. (wireless projection, capturing, etc.) Some wireless
delivery is inferior at this point. My A/V guys keep telling me wireless projection isn't as
good as wireless, but my CIO wants wireless classrooms.
4. Demands of ubiquitous mobility5. Digital technology open access
6. Easier and cheaper ways to interact from a distance
7. Educational gaming
8. Eye control of technologies
9. Eye glass retina displays replacing tiny mobile screens.
10.Haptic feedback to improve simulation devices.
11.High quality video contents online12.Learning objects marketplace with micro payments to faculty authors.
13.Merging of assessment management systems, course management systems, enterprise
management systems
14.Mind control of technologies
15.Mobile Learning with Augmented Reality Applications
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First Set of N Replies (cont.)
16.Mobile apps for instruction and the educational enterprise
17.No more lecture halls, or at least hybrid learning that increases capacity of existing learning
spaces.
18.Robotics everywhere
19.Seamless collaborative tools
20.Simulation of all type: devices for medical procedures, virtual sims a la 2nd Life.
21.Social learning that is engaging enough to push Facebook etc aside.22.Storm of iPad-like devices of all kinds of size, type, materials, durability, disposability, etc
23.Tools that promote critical thinking
24.Ubiquitous hand held internet capable device
25.Use of e-Portfolio
26.Use of video (lite)
27.Video recording and assessment of skills training in the field.
28.3-projection29.4G
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6 Replies Remaining After the First Poll
(Sqrt[29]≈6 Tokens Per Voter)
• Better management tools for the massive amount of information
• Cloud computing of everything
• Demands of ubiquitous mobility
• Merging of assessment management systems, course management
systems, enterprise management systems
• Mobile Learning with Augmented Reality Applications
• Mobile apps for instruction and the educational enterprise
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Top Three Replies Selected in Second Poll
(3 Tokens Per Voter)
1.Better management tools for the massive amount
of information.
2.Cloud computing of everything.
3.Mobile apps for instruction and the educational
enterprise.
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The Question for Today’s Mini-Horizon:
What are the top IT issues facing Higher Ed today?
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EDUCAUSE Review
Top-10 IT Issues 2012 / 2013
1. Updating IT professionals' skills and roles toaccommodate emerging technologies and changing ITmanagement and service delivery models
2. Supporting the trends toward IT consumerization andbring-your-own device
3. Developing an institution-wide cloud strategy
4. Improving the institution's operational efficiency
through information technology5. Integrating information technology into institutional
decision-making
6. Using analytics to support critical institutionaloutcomes
7. Funding information technology strategically
8. Transforming the institution's business with informationtechnology
9. Supporting the research mission through high-performance computing, large data, and analytics
10.Establishing and implementing IT governancethroughout the institution
1. Leveraging the wireless and device explosion oncampus
2. Improving student outcomes through an approach thatleverages technology
3. Developing an institution-wide cloud strategy to helpthe institution select the right sourcing and solutionstrategies
4. Developing a staffing and organizational model toaccommodate the changing IT environment andfacilitate openness and agility
5. Facilitating a better understanding of informationsecurity and finding appropriate balance betweeninfrastructure openness and security
6. Funding information technology strategically
7. Determining the role of online learning and developing
a sustainable strategy for that role8. Supporting the trends toward IT consumerization and
bring-your-own device
9. Transforming the institution's business with informationtechnology
10.Using analytics to support critical institutionaloutcomes
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Bibliography
• The Horizon Report:
• All editions online at:
http:/ /www.nmc.org/horizon
• Horizon Report Wiki:
• All editions since 2006 online at:
http:/ /horizon.wiki.nmc.org/
• Horizon Report Metatrends:• Online at:
http://horizon.nmc.org/wiki/Metatrends
• Ruben R. Puentedura, Technology In Education – The First 200,0 00 Years:
• Online at:
http://www.hippasus.com/rrpweblog/archives/000069.html
• Jeff Selingo, The Five Disruptive Forces That Will Change Higher Education Forever :
• Online at:
http://blip.tv/downes/the-five-disruptive-forces-that-will-change-higher-education-
forever-6395884
• Susan Grajek and Judith A. Pirani, Top-Ten IT Issues, EDUCAUSE Review (2012-2013):
• Online at:
http:/ /www.educause.edu/ero/article/top-ten-it-issues-2012
http://www.educause.edu/ero/article/top-ten-it-issues-2013-welcome-connected-age
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Photo Credits
• I MOOC: Ilonka Hebels
• Lazy day reading with the new Kindle: Shane Lin
• Soc ial networ k in a course: Hans Põldoja
• Gam ification of Life (Jul '11): VFS Digital Design
• 3D Printer : Indiana Public Media
• Goo gle Glass: Michael Praetorius
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Informing Decision Making: the Delphi Method
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Wanted: the Relevant Information Space
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Stage 1: Bringing In the Experts
Expert
A
Expert
A
Expert
B
Expert
A
Expert
B
Expert C
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Stage 2: Aggregating the Replies
Expert
A
Expert
B
Expert C
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Stage 3: Informing the Process
Expert
A
Expert
B
Expert C
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Stage 4: Selecting the Relevant Information Space
Expert
A
Expert
B
Expert C
Expert
A
Expert
B
Expert C
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Things to Keep In Mind
• Change some, but not all, of your expert panel members each year:
• Too much change leads to unstable recommendations, too little change
leads to groupthink-like phenomena.
• Make sure you have a broad range of expertise and backgrounds in yourexpert panel:
• Not everyone should be a technologist, or a faculty member, or an
administrator.
• Make sure your panel has innovators, opinion leaders, and early majority
members ( cf. Rogers) on it:
• Panels that only feature innovators tend to produce recommendations that
are not representative of the needs of the institution as a whole.
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Additional Toolkits
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S
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How Innovations Spread
(Everett M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations)
Source: The Innovator Theory . Online at http://www.mitsue.co.jp/english/case/concept/02.html
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Type A Adoption Type B Adoption Type C Adoption
Peak of InflatedExpectations
Trough ofDisillusionment
Slope ofEnlightenment
Plateau ofProductivity
Maturity
TechnologyTrigger
Hype
Source: GartnerGroup
The Gartner Hype Cycle
Th G H C l
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The Gartner Hype Cycle:
Phases and Adoption Types
• Five Phases:
• Technology Trigger : a new technology generates significant press and industry interest;
• Peak of Inflated Expectations: a flurry of well-publicized activity results in some
successes, but more failures;
• Trough of Disillusionment : the technology becomes unfashionable, and the press
abandons the topic;
• Slope of Enlightenment : focused experimentation and solid hard work lead to a true
understanding of the technology’s applicability, risks, and benefits;
• Plateau of Productivity : the real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and
accepted.
• Three Adoption Types:
• Type A: technologically aggressive organizations.
• Type B: technologically low risk organizations, focused on maintaining competitiveness.
• Type C: technologically cautious organizations, focused on cost reduction.
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2013 Gartner Cycle
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The SAMR Model (Puentedura, 2003)
Substitution
Tech acts as a direct tool substitute, with no
functional change
Augmentation
Tech acts as a direct tool substitute, withfunctional improvement
ModificationTech allows for significant task redesign
Redefinition
Tech allows for the creation of new tasks,
previously inconceivable
E n h a n c e m e n t
T r an s f or m
a t i on
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http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seminar-18p-the-horizon-report-a-hands-on-approach-to-putting-theory-into 51/52
• NMC Horizon EdTech Weekly:
• Available online at:
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/nmc-horizon-edtech-weekly/id499356877?mt=8
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=org.nmc.hznewsweekly
• The Delphi Method:
• Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff (Eds.) The Delphi Method: Techniques and
Appl ications. Available online at:http: //www.is.njit.edu/pubs/delphibook/
• Diffusion of Innovations:
• Everett M. Rogers. Di ff usion of Innovations, 5th Edition. New York:Free Press, 2003.
• Geoffrey A. Moore. Crossing the Chasm, Revised Edition. New York:Harper Perennial, 1999.
• The Gartner Hype Cycle:
• Gartner Research Group. The Gartner Hype Cycle. Online at:
http: //www.gartner.com/technology/research /methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp
http://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2575515
• The SAMR Model:
• Ruben R. Puentedura. As We May Teach: Educational Technology, From Theory Into
Practice. Online at:
https://itunes.apple.com/itunes-u/as-we-may-teach-educational/id380294705?mt=10
Bibliography
7/27/2019 Seminar 18P - The "Horizon Report": A Hands-On Approach to Putting Theory into Practice (separate registration required) (176387781)
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/seminar-18p-the-horizon-report-a-hands-on-approach-to-putting-theory-into 52/52
Email Contact Information
• Wayne Brent, Ph.D. – wbrent@email.arizona.edu
• Cyprien Lomas, Ph.D. – cyprien.lomas@ubc.ca
• Ruben R. Puentedura, Ph.D. – rubenrp@hippasus.com