Seminars for LBA2

Global Change Research and Development Research

Reflections on Synergies and Challenges for LBA Phase 2

Carlos A NobreCPTEC-INPE

LBA and Brazilian Amazonia Deforestation Rates

- By the time that LBA started its planning (1993-94), deforestation rates were about 13,000 km2/year

- When LBA started its field phase (1998-99), they were about 18,000 km2/year

- Nearing the end of LBA Phase 1 (1994), rates have increased to 26,000 km2/year

The Development Challenge- Water, Food and Livelihoods

UN Millennium Development Goals (MDG)

To halve, by the year 2015, the proportion of the world’s people living in

absolute povertythe proportion of people suffering from hungerthe proportion of people unable to access or afford

safe drinking waterTo achieve this while simultaneously stabilizing human impact on climate, protecting biological diversity, stop unsustainable exploitation of water resources, combat droughts and desertification, by adoption the principles of sustainable development

Uppsala Meeting, GC and Development Oriented Funding Agencies17-18 May 2005

Should Global Change (GC) research be top priority for developing countries? Does it truly have priority along side applied, needs based research on agriculture, freshwater, health, energy, biotechnology, industrialization, etc…?

Does GC research provide relevant knowledge for the time step of prime concern for development research?

Do we have evidence form GC research to convey to stakeholder in development research which will/should influence research agenda?

Is there a scope for a new science on global change research

for development? A new focus for LBA Phase 2?

Urgency is clear

GEC causing risks for global development and jeopardizing an already unlikely Millennium Development Goals (MDG) fulfillment

Sustainable Development is constrained by global environmental change

Social scale dimensions – Environmental Refugees, vulnerability science

The role of ecosystem functions in building resilience to mitigate shocks (slow and sudden) – social and ecological resilience

Major advances in our understanding of the Earth System, scale interactions, dynamics of social-ecological systems (LBA is a role model of IRS)

The Global Environment Change Scene

Differences and Similarities between Global Change Research and

Development Research

Global Change Research Development Research

Ecosystem paradigm People centered paradigm (agency and structure; decision making; social processes)

global regional scale

Global environmental change

Local regional global scale

Economic, political, social, cultural globalization

Focus on long-term changes

Focus on shorter term changes

Differences and Similarities between Global Change Research and Development Research (2)

Global Change Research Development Research

Combination of fundamental and applied research (explaining, understanding).

Self-initiated research.

Knowledge for understanding

Knowledge for impacts

Strong solution orientation.

Reflection on the process of scientific knowledge production (knowledge and power), the negotiation of knowledge and the translation of knowledge into action

Knowledge for understanding

Knowledge for impacts

Knowledge for action

Actionable knowledge

Organized small communities Diverse, fractious communities

Consensus

Diversity/tension are important for creative knowledge production.

Development strategies have to take climate change/ global environmental change into account and GEC research should be

informed by development needs.

Effective mechanisms to translate GEC knowledge into action are

underdeveloped. [a perceived defficiency in LB A]

What we could learn from each other ?

GEC research from Development Research: Stakeholder involvement, placed based research, comparison of case studies, translation of knowledge into action.

Development Research from GEC research: Environmental teleconnections on a global scale and their regional and local implications.

Integrated Regional Studies (e.g. LBA): a natural locus where GEC research and Development Research can meet and explore sinergies

(Ongoing) areas of collaboration

Adaptation – mitigation – resilience – vulnerability

Climate prediction

0

100

Adaptado de Nepstad, Folha Amazônica, 2004

Vicious Circle ...

LBA 1

Rigorous documentation of change in the region and understanding the causes of change

State-of-the-science diagnostic tools and impact studies: increased anguish of scientists and policy makers alike at the unsustainable pathways of land use change

LBA2: more of the same?

Forest area

Jobs/Income

Governance Capacity

0

100

Virtuous Circle...

What is the role of LBA2 to contribute to the setting of the ‘virtuous circle’?

The Great Challenge

LBA 2

In addition to the traditional scientific agenda of LBA1 (typically Global Change Research), LBA2 must have a focus on developing a robust scientific basis (and also technological basis to a large extent) to support sustainable (ecologically, socially, economicaly) uses of natural resources, with an emphasis on ecosystems goods and services, and on increased resilience of life supporting systems.

In LBA1, such studies were not more than 10% of all studies

For LBA2, they should make a larger proportion of the scientific agenda

Instituto do Milênio – LBA2 proposal: increased emphasis on research relevant to regional developement

Instituto do Milênio – Uses of Amazon Biodiversity proposal (led by UFPA, INPA, Embrapa, CBA, FUA, etc.): points out to research fully in tune with S&T needs for sustainable development.

Example of bridging science for policy and development: a conceptual model for LBA2?

Livelihoods &

Environment

GEC research (e.g. LBA1)

Vulnerability Assessment

Action research for resilience building (also with a strong focus on technology)

Policy & dialogue processes

• The role of ecosystems and ecological resilience for human life support• Understanding vulnerability, building resilience for local life support

Seminars for Defining LBA2

Seminar I

Seminar in Brasilia with MCT• Coordination among MCT´s Amazonian projects (LBA, GEOMA, PPBIO, PP-G7, etc.)• Strategic discussions on mission for LBA Phase 2 (GC research and Development-oriented research?)• Small group• To take place within the next two-months• Definition of organizing group for Seminar II• Discussion of results at LBA SSC 18 (November 2005?)

Seminar II

International Seminar• Goal: To advance the definition of a science agenda for LBA2• Larger group involving current LBA researchers and representatives of new areas to be atracted, and key stakeholders• Funding agency representatives (both Science and Development Funding Agencies)• Final product: a document laying out the mission, the science (and technology) questions and the implementation strategy for LBA2 for 2006-2010• Date: Jan-Feb 2006• Role of LBA SSC in the organization of Seminar

Potential future areas of collaboration

Identify existing structures for translation of scientific knowledge into action or identify the needs for new structures

Take advantage of existing donor platforms in S & T (e.g. IFORD, Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers; Millenium Science Initiative)

Build fora for intellectual exchange (including information exchange) between GEC research and DR.

LBA1

Environment

GEC research