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World Future SocietyWorld Future SocietyWashington, DCWashington, DC
Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
Lessons From Singapore and the Lessons From Singapore and the Project on National Security ReformProject on National Security Reform
Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D.Chair and Professor, Chair and Professor,
Department of Management and CommunicationsDepartment of Management and CommunicationsWalsh CollegeWalsh College
Troy, MITroy, MI
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
National Security Strategy
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Lessons From the
Project on National Security Reform
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
More than twenty years ago…
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The United States does not develop whole of government “Grand Strategies.”
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
Private Sector Management Tools
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
“What mechanisms should the
U.S. government develop?”
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
“We are now concerned with the peace of the entire world and the peace can only be
maintained by the strong.”
- General George C. Marshall
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
A Systems Approach…
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
U.S. security is rooted in the successful integration of all elements of national power.
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
“What is the basis for re-thinking the national security system?”
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
“What is and what is not national security?”
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
“Threats”
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
“Opportunities”
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
Any situation, condition, or entity that has the potential to enhance or degrade the viability
and vitality of the nation.
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The National Security System would be responsible for and measured by:
The viability and vitality of the nation,
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The National Security System would be responsible for and measured by:
The viability and vitality of the nation, Peaceful and positive development throughout
the countries of every region
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The National Security System would be responsible for and measured by:
The viability and vitality of the nation, Peaceful and positive development throughout
the countries of every region Cooperation and collaboration around the
globe
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A Learning Organization
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
Complex Adaptive System
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally
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Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally Accommodate unanticipated needs and
partnerships
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally Accommodate unanticipated needs and
partnerships Ensure agility in the face of uncertainty
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally Accommodate unanticipated needs and
partnerships Ensure agility in the face of uncertainty Incorporate ad-hoc structures and processes,
and
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
Complex Adaptive System Share information and collaborate horizontally Accommodate unanticipated needs and
partnerships Ensure agility in the face of uncertainty Incorporate ad-hoc structures and processes,
and Maintain a long-term view
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Complex System of Complex Systems
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Environment of the 21st Century
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The world is a system
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The world is a system The nation’s homelands are no longer
protected by distance or time
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The world is a system The nation’s homelands are no longer
protected by distance or time Globalization demands a holistic world view
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
“If you know the enemy and you know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.
If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained, you will suffer a defeat.
But if you know neither yourself nor the enemy, you will succumb in every battle.”
- Suz Tzu,
The Art of War,
~400 B.C.
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
“Plans are worthless, but planning is everything”
- President Dwight D. Eisenhower
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
National Security Characteristics
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Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment
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Synthesize all of government solutions to complex system issues and problems, and
sometimes “all of society.”
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Nine scenarios in three time frames: 2020 2040 2060
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The 2020 scenarios include: Red Death
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The 2020 scenarios include: Red Death The People’s War
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The 2020 scenarios include: Red Death The People’s War A Grand Strategy
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The 2040 scenarios include: A New Economy
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The 2040 scenarios include: A New Economy Army of One
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The 2040 scenarios include: A New Economy Army of One Who Holds the High Ground
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The 2040 scenarios include: A New Economy Army of One Who Holds the High Ground A Brave New World
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The 2060 scenarios include: A Warm Reception
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The 2060 scenarios include: A Warm Reception It’s a Small World
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Possibility of a Singularity
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Findings significantly improved
system performance.
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Studying Singapore
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According to Peter Ho in Ethos,
“Challenge conformist thinking,”
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
According to Peter Ho in Ethos,
“Challenge conformist thinking,” “Identify emergent risks,”
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
According to Peter Ho in Ethos,
“Challenge conformist thinking,” “Identify emergent risks,” “Calibrate strategic thinking processes,”
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
According to Peter Ho in Ethos,
“Challenge conformist thinking,” “Identify emergent risks,” “Calibrate strategic thinking processes,” “Cultivate capabilities, instincts and habits.”
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Improving White House Thinking
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By the Establishment of the
Center for Strategic Analysis and Assessment
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The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term
plans
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term
plans Provide comprehensive exercises
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term
plans Provide comprehensive exercises Provide networking and an outreach function
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term
plans Provide comprehensive exercises Provide networking and an outreach function Provide workshops and seminars
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Executive Office of the President of the United States:Executive Office of the President of the United States:The Need for New CapabilitiesThe Need for New Capabilities
The Center should: Provide a rigorous framework Support the integration of near, mid and long-term
plans Provide comprehensive exercises Provide networking and an outreach function Provide workshops and seminars Maintain unity of purpose over successive
AdministrationsSheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. Sheila R. Ronis, Ph.D. 6060
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Annual State of the World Conference
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Internal Staff
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Understanding Global Strategic Assets
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Scenario Examples
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Grand Strategy Assessments
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Five Essential Planning Perspectives: Space The planet Regions Countries Internal or Domestic
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System RiskSystem RiskAcross the STEEP VariablesAcross the STEEP Variables
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Sociological Technological Economic Environmental Political
System
“System Risk” is the aggregation and understanding of the many forms of risk that occur internal and external to the system but which potentially have an impact on the system;
the product of the interactions and interdependencies of thevarious forms of risk, sociological, technological, economic, environmental and political.
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Visioning and Development of Scenarios
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Gaming
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Barriers to Success
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Further Challenges
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In Conclusion:
Strategic and systems thinking and visioning
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In Conclusion:
Strategic and systems thinking and visioning Development of a holistic and evolving view of the
global environment and national security context
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In Conclusion:
Strategic and systems thinking and visioning Development of a holistic and evolving view of the
global environment and national security context Game specific scenarios for policy implications
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In Conclusion:
Strategic and systems thinking and visioning Development of a holistic and evolving view of the
global environment and national security context Game specific scenarios for policy implications Continuous development of scenarios
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In Conclusion:
Strategic and systems thinking and visioning Development of a holistic and evolving view of the
global environment and national security context Game specific scenarios for policy implications Continuous development of scenarios House leading edge tools and technologies
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In Conclusion:
Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions
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In Conclusion:
Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions Providing classified environments
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In Conclusion:
Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions Providing classified environments Developing of “Grand Strategies
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In Conclusion:
Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions Providing classified environments Developing of “Grand Strategies Providing networking and outreach
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In Conclusion:
Engaging in red teaming to test assumptions Providing classified environments Developing of “Grand Strategies Providing networking and outreach “Challenging conventional wisdom”
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Plan for the future so the U.S. can figure out how to remain strong
The pilot in Michigan
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The Future World
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Thank you!
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