Short-Term Outcomes Following Concussion in the NFL: An 11 ... · • Likelihood of a concussed...

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•  Concussion and its diagnosis, prevention, and treatment remain a challenge for National Football League (NFL) players

•  The NFL has focused on concussions as of late

The elite NFL athlete is unique •  40% of retired NFL players have

signs of CTE based on sensitive MRI scans

•  Knowing the short-term effects of concussion are just as important as the long-term effects

INTRODUCTION

•  Establish the short-term outcomes among concussed NFL players in terms of:

(1) Franchise release rate (2) Career length (3) Mean salary (4) Performance

OBJECTIVES

METHODS

•  Of the total 5,587 NFL players over the 11-year period from 2005-2016, 307 players noted as sustaining publicly reported concussions resulting in DNP injury protocol.

•  Annual release rate of the post-concussive versus non-concussive players: 33.6% vs. 21.6%, (p<0.001)

•  Mean year-over-year change in contract value for concussed players after DNP protocol activation Reduction of $300,000/year ± $1,300,000/year.

•  Likelihood of a concussed player remaining in the NFL after 3yrs: 30.1% vs 54.2% (p<0.001)

•  Likelihood of a concussed player remaining in the NFL after 5yrs was 11.6% vs 36.6% (p<0.001)

•  Fantasy scoring: pre-concussion average of 7.1± 14.2 FFP/game vs post-concussion 6.4 ± 10.4 FFP/game (p=0.047).

RESULTS

CONCLUSION •  Our retrospective study is the largest

evaluating NFL concussions •  Concussed NFL players were

released by non-concussed players within the year of sustaining a concussion at a higher rate

•  Concussed players had a 70% chance of not remaining in the league 3 years later

•  Concussed players had a 88% chance of not remaining in the league at 5 years

•  Released players suffered reduction in year-over-year accumulated earnings of $300,000 per year the player remained in the league

•  Concussed players performed worse on the field prior to their injury

•  Performance decreases were greatest for tight ends, running backs, wide receivers, and quarterbacks after concussion.

DATA REFERENCES 1.  Profootballreference.com 2.  Nfl.com 3.  Spotrac.com 4.  Fantasydata.com 5.  Prosportstransactions.com

Prem N. Ramkumar MD MBA1 , Sergio M. Navarro BS2 1Cleveland Clinic, Dept of Orthopaedic Surgery , 2Baylor College of Medicine, Dept of Orthopaedic Surgery

Short-Term Outcomes Following Concussion in the NFL: An 11-year Case-Control Study of Player Release Rate and Financial Loss

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0-1yrs

1-2yrs

2-3yrs

3-4yrs

4-5yrs

5-7yrs

7-10yrs

10yrs+

Salary Change ($mm/yr)

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Survival curves comparing career length of concussive vs. non-concussive players Post-concussion salary change

based on career length

Release rate data for all players studied over

11-year period

2002Dr.Omaluautopsyof

MikeWebster

2005Pellmanetalreport50%ofconcussedplayershadsame-game

RTP 2009NFLinsEtutes

policystopping

same-gameRTP

2011NFLinsEtutes

sidelineconcussionassessmentprotocol

2013NFLaddstoconcussionprotocoland

recruitssideline

neurologistsand

establishesbaseline

tesEngwithpreseasoneducaEon

2016NFLinsEtutes

financialpenaltyonfranchises

noncompliantwith

concussionprotocols

2017Rulechangestothegametoincreaseplayersafety

RetrospecEveStudyDesignofNFLPlayers(2005-2016)

Case-control:Concussedvs.Non-

concussed

FranchiseReleaseRate Careerlength

ObservaEonal:Pre-concussionvsPost-Concussion

Salary Performance