Shossler Eurelectric(Compatibility Mode]

transcript

7/29/2019 Shossler Eurelectric(Compatibility Mode]

1/35

Pierre Schlosser

Advisor for Energy Policy and Generation,

EURELECTRIC

RE Seminar, Amman

27 March 2012

An assessment

of the European approach toRenewables


2/35

Become carbon-neutral by 2050

Boost energy efficiency & help

electrifying transport,

heating/cooling etc. to fight

climate change

Go for European, market-basedsolutions

CEO Declaration 18/03/2009


3/35

Content

1. Current RES developments in Europe

2. EURELECTRICs analysis and recommendations


4/35

Content




5/35

5

Renewable Power Investments by Region 20112020

Up to 2020, Europe is the place where RES will develop

most

Source: IHS

Emerging Energy

Research


6/35

Germany and Spain have been the early moverson wind and keep on track


7/35

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Germany Spain UK Italy France Sweden Romania Poland Portugal Greece

Newly connected wind capacity in 2011 (MW), Source: EWEA

Germany still on top in 2011, but followers are

manifold and catch up. UK focusses on offshore.


8/35

Germany has been the largest early-mover on PV,later followed by Spain and increasingly, Italy.


9/35

Newly connected PV capacity in 2011 (MW), Source: EPIA

In 2011, Italy installed more PV capacity than Germany.

Spain slowed down.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

Germany Italy France UK Belgium Spain Greece Slovakia


10/35

The 2020 horizon for Europe = 35 % of RES.

Large increases in wind, solar and biomass are expected.

2008 600TWh 2020 1200 TWh

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Hydro Biomass Wind Solar TOTALRES-E

TWh

2000 (EUROSTAT) 2008 (EUROSTAT) 2020 (NREAP)


11/35

But, will the support schemes/political support be sufficient to cover the

massive investments needed? All technologies face difficulties...

EU Member States National renewables action plans mandate high

annual capacity growth in wind and solar up to 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010-2015 2015-2020

Solar

Offshore

wind

Onshore

wind

Biomass/waste

Hydropower

Average annual

capacity growth (in GW)


12/35

The EU is now thinking of proposing 2030

RES binding targets

European Parliament is

backing it

Member States:

unknown at the moment

A majority of

stakeholders seem in

favour of some form of

targets

EURELECTRIC: CO2

target + indicative/non-

binding target for RES

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

mandatorytarget

indicative target sectoral targets combination ofEU and sectoral

level targets

No targets

no.ofrespondents

Role of targets

Results from European Commission Consultation on RES

Strategy after 2020 , 24 February 2012


13/35

Financial support for RES, in particular PV is slowing down

in Europe

- Spain has a moratorium on PV subsidy, no subsidies

anymore (until at least 2017)

- Germany reduced its PV feed-in of up to 26.4 %

- Italy: revision in a couple of months, (expected cut)

- UK: cut of 50 % for smaller installations

- France: moratorium end 2010 + cut + tendering process for

medium/large PV projects (above 100 kW)

- Czech Republic: cut and new feed-in will come in 2012


14/35

Content




15/35

The RESAP, a holisticapproach:

Engaging all

EURELECTRIC

comittees and full

structure of expertise

~ 400 experts across

European power

industry involved

13 different reports,

and synopsis

www.eurelectric.org/RESAP


16/35

So, the more the v-RES, the higher the flexibility needs.

Prospects from Germany. Long time periods of low generation andhighpower gradients are characteristic for renewables

Source: BDEW, The structure of Power Generation 2020/2030

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1318 1342 1366 1390 1414 1438 1462

Stromnachfrage Windeinspeisung Residuale Last

~30 GW

fallende

Windeinspeisung

SteigendeNachfrage

Di Mi Do Fr Sa So Mo

GW

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1318 1342 1366 1390 1414 1438 1462

~50 GW

Di Mi Do Fr Sa So Mo

GW

Windeinspeisung und Residuallastverlauf am 3-9.Februar 2009 Projektion auf 2020

(installierte WEA: 24 GW) (installierte WEA: 45 GW)

Wind output and residual load curve (3-9 February 2009)

(installed wind capacity: 24 GW)

Projection 2020

(installed wind capacity: 45 GW)

Increasingdemand

Wind generation

Demand Wind Residual load

GW GW

Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon


17/35

Wind

capacities

Solar

capacities

Ocean cap.

Further

market

integration

Transmission

capacities

Storage

capacities

Smart Grids

and Flexible

Loads

The solution = a system approach to balancing variability

and developing flexibility in the systemv-RES

Flexible &

back-up

generation

Larger balancing areas/more balancing

opportunities

Additional flexible and

dispatchable capacities

No regret options!


18/35

Further development of transmission lines

(+interconnectors) are key to integrate RES


19/35

The IEA estimates 489 bn investments in the distribution

grid over the next 25 years in the EU; 164 bn in thetransmission grid

1 279

164

489

0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400

New plants:

Transmission:

Distribution:

bn EUR

Source: IEA, World energy outlook 2010

NOs need to work in

stable and predictable

regulatory environmentNOs need to fulfill the

requirements of the

capital market


20/35

20

Setting a pan-European Electricity Market as the

best tool to accomodate RES in the system

An integrated regional electricity

market in Northern Western

Europe (NWE) by 201218th Florence Forum (13-14 December 2010)

The completion of the Internal

Energy Market by 2014

European Council on Energy (4 February 2011)

A pan-European marketemerging from:

- A NWE (pilot region): integration of day-ahead

and intra-day markets by 2012

- Other regions linking up to NWE region in the

run-up to 2014


21/35

Flexible back-up from conventional plants (be they

hydro or gas plants) will be needed too


22/35

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Cypr

us

Slov

akia

Slov

enia

Norw

ay

Esto

nia

Hung

ary

Bulga

ria

Belgi

um

Luxe

mbo

urg

Czec

hRe

publ

ic

Lithu

ania

Irela

nd

Gre

ece

Pola

nd

Turk

ey

Portu

gal

UK

Switz

erla

nd

Aust

ria

Germ

any

Fran

ce

Spai

n

PumpingCapacity[MW]

Existing PSPPs Licenced PSPPs Planned PSPPs

Existing and future pumped hydro capacity in Europe in MW (logarithmic scale)


23/35

The demand side will increasingly participate in bringing more

flexibility. Smart meter installation is on its way in Europe

Source: EURELECTRIC, Regulation for Smart Grids


24/35

A system approach means also a more

coordinated EU RES policy

Norwegian-Swedish joint RES certificate scheme now in

operation since January 2012. An example to follow.

2014 is the year of the revision of the RES Directive.

EURELECTRIC will strongly argue for:

implementation of the cooperation mechanisms

bring RES into the market and on a level playing field

converging support schemes

Good cooperation potentials on article 9: its physical

constraints should however be softened


25/35

A European approach is needed to reap the benefits

of Europes geographical/resource diversity

Source: DG ENER

Plethora of national support

systems, lack of market

integration and deficient

interconnections

We need to connect

surpluses to deficits!


26/35

EURELECTRICs Key Policy

Recommendations on RES, for the future

1. Successful growth in renewable energy depends on a wellfunctioning and integrated European energy market

Dont focus on targets/focus on the system

A reinforced grid infrastructure (transmission and distribution)

Integrated and liquid wholesale gas and electricity markets

Removal of regulated end-users prices

Smart Grids, Demand-side response and customer engagement

Use also hydro and biomass

2. Use of cooperation mechanisms between Member States and with3rd countries!

3. Avoid our mistakes!


27/35

Source: Ernst and Young, All Renewables Index, November 2011

Egypt, Turkey, Morocco and Tunisia in the highlight.

6 European countries in the top 10


28/35

Avoid our mistakes ! A guide for action:

- Adopt a system approach which goes beyond RES

(infrastructure, flexibility, markets)

- Think beyond your countrys borders! Coordinate your

policies with your neighbours, everyone will win.

- An earlier exposure for RES actors to market dynamics

stop the volume thinking and discipline the behaviour

- Better to have a lower but stable RES support rather than

high and hence politically volatile schemes which lead toboom-bust cycles

- Synchronise RES and infrastructure development


29/35


30/35

Thank you for your attention!

www.eurelectric.org/RESAP


31/35

BACK UP


32/35

IEA Deploying Renewables 2011

Summer 2012

Deployment

Phase

Priorities

Inception Generate investor confidence via

targets and roadmap

Appropriate financial support

Regulatory framework

Take off Predictable and transparent support

Adaptable incentives based on market

developments and total policy costsConsolidation System integration issues and enabling

technologies

Overall market design

Public acceptance


33/35


34/35

Onshore wind (IEA): some mistakes have been done too


35/35

RES-E Potentials are heterogenous across Europe

Wind Onshore

48

9

Source: EWI.

Source: EWI.

Photovoltaics

specific

generation

costs[/MWh]

specific

generation

costs

[/MWh]

Use of EU-wide most favorable sites for renewable power generation

yields cost savings until 2020 of 100-200 bn. , if a sufficient transmission

grid is given(EWI, 2010).

Shossler Eurelectric(Compatibility Mode]

Documents