Simplicity on the Other Side of Complexity An Introduction to Complexity Science and Management.

transcript

Simplicity on the Other Side of Complexity

An Introduction to Complexity

Science and Management

I. Introductions and Purpose

Introductions Faculty Staff Special Guests

Our Purpose To build understanding of &

confidence in using complexity principles and practices

Who Is In The Room?Connection Before Content

Find a “strange attractor”

“Exercise or Exorcism?”

II. How This Workshop Will Be Different

Structured Improvisation Many activities may seem paradoxical: structured

with simple rules that draw out insight; familiar and fundamentally different

We will rely on emergence as well as formal methods We intend to have serious fun (and surprises) as we

learn! We will work at three levels throughout the day:

transferring information, skill building, and mental model shifting

DistributionTechnologies

InteractiveTechnologies

CollaborativeTechnologies

Delivery Approach

Instructor/ExpertCentered

LearnerCentered

Team, Partnership orCommunity Centered

InformationTransfer

Skill orCompetency

Building

Mental ModelShift &

KnowledgeCreation

Learning At Three Levels

Adapted from Lotus Institute

The Illuminating, Profound Poetry of Complexity

Language can be used for poetry or prose. In a poem, the meaning of words is far more dense. That is, each word may carry several meanings; and a sentence as a whole may carry an enormous density of interlocking meanings… together they illuminate the whole from multiple perspectives.

The more dense and embedded -- the more breadth and depth -- the more profound a poem can become.

Like poetry, this complexity course strings together many patterns in words, images & experience. Within the embedded patterns or fractals, we hope you will find simplicity illuminated… and linked directly to multiple levels of your experience.

We hope for illumination both in the larger patterns in which your work is embedded (our ecology & economy) and the smaller patterns that are embedded in it (day-to-day activities).

Creative Illumination

The poet’s eye, in a fine frenzy rolling, Doth glance from heaven to earth, from

earth to heaven, And, as imagination bodies forth

The forms of things unknown, the poet’s pen

Turns them into shapes, and gives to airy nothing

A local habitation and name. William Shakespeare, A Midsummer Night’s Dream

Bridging PolaritiesWe will move from Either/Or to “Yes, And”

ThinkingComplexity

Clockware

Design

Simplicity

Swarmware

Emergence

I ntegrate

Operate

I nclude

Reduce Variation

Diff erentiate

I nnovate

Transcend

Let go of control

Paradox frames the door to life. Charles Johnson

Workshop Agenda & Rules See Agenda for details Lunch & break times will be set as we go Take responsibility for your own learning; vote

with your feet during interactive sessions Expect to be provoked, challenged and

surprised -- complexity turns convention on its head

Please turn off cellular phone and beepers Try to keep your “stuff” collected. We will be

moving about the room Phones and bathrooms are...

Relationship Deepening

Purpose Shifting

Information Flowing

How We Will Measure Success

See Handout

III. Seeing Through A Complexity Lens

Inspiration from Complex Adaptive Systems Definition: A collection of individual agents,

who have the freedom to act in unpredictable ways, and whose actions are interconnected such that one agent’s actions changes the context for other agents.

Examples: termite colonies, stock markets, the Internet, gardens, human beings, groups of people

DefiningComplex Adaptive Systems Alternative CAS definition by

Ralph Stacey: CASs consist of a network of agents that interact with each other according to a set of rules that require them to examine and respond to each other’s behavior to improve their behavior and thus the behavior of the system they comprise.

Attributes of Complex Adaptive Systems

Elements of the system change themselves (they adapt)

Complex behaviors can emerge from a few simple rules that are applied locally

Emergence of novelty & creativity is a natural state

Order emerges without central control Non-linearity: small changes can have BIG effects Systems are embedded in systems & their

interdependency matters Not predictable in detail: forecasting is an inexact,

yet boundable, art Co-evolution of life proceeds through constant

tension & balance Adapted from Paul Plsek

Interdependent AttributesAdaptableElements

Embedded

Systems

Co-Evolution

Non-Linearity

SimpleRules

Not Predicablein Detail

Order w/o

Central Control

Natural Emergence &

Creativity

Why Now? More of our world is connected, complex and

interdependent than ever before Entities that embrace these principles and

practices seem to adapt and grow; and, institutions that don’t, are not functioning well at all

New complexity science directly challenges pervasive Newtonian “machine-age” thinking

Advances in biology & CASs are informing science & technology advances in other fields

Time and space have been compressed (the lags & gaps have disappeared)

Complexity Lens Reflection

We are finely tuned “complex adaptive systems,” especially when we are working at our highest intelligence & purpose. Describe a time or experience when a

collaborative effort created or encouraged something surprising. It should be something you are proud to have been a part of… a difference that made a difference. It can be a very small, subtle thing. It could be from your current workplace or a past effort of any kind.

See the Workbook Handout

When Complexity Practices Are Useful

When you are frustrated with current and past approaches

When challenges are wicked and messy When you want to start something new When there is little agreement or

certainty about how to respond * * See the Zone of Complexity in Ralph

Stacey’s diagram

Stacey DiagramKnow When Your Challenges Are In the Zone of Complexity

Certainty

Close to Far from

se to Simple

Plan, control

ChaoticSeek Patterns

Stacey DiagramKnow When Your Challenges Are In the Zone of Complexity

Certainty

Close to Far from

se to Simple

Plan, control

ChaoticSeek Patterns

Complicated

ComplexSwarm

What Approaches Are Useful in the Zone?

Certainty

Close to Far from

se to Simple

Plan, control

ChaosSeek Patterns

CAS Metaphors, Good Enough Vision, Minimum Specs, Seeking Out

Paradox, Multiple Actions, Chunking,

Generative Relationships, Informal Networks, Tuning To Your System &

Natural Attractors, Swarmware

Simple & Complex Approaches

Simple

• Plan then act• Create explicit plans• Look for agreement & a clear outcome• Limit type of actions• Drive implementation & set targets

Complex

•“Act-learn-plan” at the same time• Look for divergence• Use multiple actions & min specs• Tune to the edge• Build on what emerges & grows

Chronic Disease Complex

Acute, Uncomplicated Simple

Gradual onset over time Abrupt onset

Multivariate cause, changing over time

Of ten a single cause can be identifi ed

Diagnosis is uncertain and prognosis obscure

Diagnosis and prognosis are commonly accurate

I ndecisive technologies & therapies with adversities

Specifi c therapy or treatment available

No cure, pervasive uncertainty: management, coaching & self -care over time is needed to improve health

Profession & laity must be reciprocally knowledgeable to improve health status

Technological intervention is usually eff ective; cure is likely with return to normal health

Profession is knowledgeable and laity inexperienced

Adapted from: Halstead Holman, MD (Stanford)

Leadership TasksIn A Professional Bureaucracy

role defining – job and task descriptions tight structuring – use chain of command simplifying – prioritize or limit simple actions socializing – seek homogeneous values &

ideas decision making – find the “best” choice knowing – decide & tell others what to do controlling – tightly managed execution planning via forecasting – plan & then roll out staying the course – align & maintain focus

Adapted from Ruth Anderson & Reuben McDaniel, JR.

Leadership TasksComplex Adaptive System

relationship building – work with patterns of interaction

loose coupling – informal communities of practice complicating – add more degrees of freedom diversifying – draw out & exploit difference sense making – collective interpretation/meaning learning – act/learn/plan at the same time improvising – intuition guiding action w/min specs thinking about the future – imagine surprises noticing emergent direction – build on what works

Leadership TasksProfessional Bureaucracy

Complex Adaptive System

role defining tight structuring simplifying socializing decision making knowing controlling (w/ max specs) planning via forecasting stay the course

relationship building loose coupling complicating diversifying sense making learning improvising (w/ min specs) thinking about the future noticing emergent direction

How Does Simplicity Emerge from CASs?

“Given the right circumstances, from no more than dreams, determination, and the liberty to try, ordinary people consistently do extraordinary things. To lead is to create those circumstances.” Dee Hock, Visa Founder

“Nobody knows exactly how it works, but we can give it what it needs to grow... prepare & fertilize soil with collaborative technology; seed with change agents; protect new growth; water the “right plant in the right place”; weed & prune what does not grow; harvest when ripe.” Peter & Trudy Johnson-Lenz, Awakening Technologies

“Farmers don’t grow crops. They create the conditions for

crops to grow.” Gareth Morgan

IV. Scientific Origins & Emerging Insights

Scientific Origins

Surprising Convergence of Disciplines

Biology

EcologyMeteorology

Mathematics

Chemistry

Psychology

Sociology

Economics

Physics

Computer Science

Before Complexity

Scientists believed the future was knowable given enough data points

Dissecting discrete parts would reveal how everything -- the whole system -- works

Phenomena can be reduced to simple cause & effect relationships

The role of scientists, technology, & leaders was to predict and control the future

Increasing levels of control over nature would improve our quality of life

Newton & the Machine Metaphor

In science the search for the basic building blocks

In management The whole is no more or no less than

the sum of parts, so focus on the parts (e.g. functions, disciplines)

Organizations and people are implicitly viewed as machines (or machine parts)

Tom Petzinger Wall Street Journal

“Even as it was toppled from unassailability in science, Newtonian mechanics remained firmly lodged as the mental model of management, from the first stirrings of the industrial revolution right through the advent of modern-day M.B.A. studies.”

As biologists and other pioneers began to realize, it could not explain the self renewing processes of life.

Roots Of Complexity

Santa Fe Institute Physics-chaos theory Math-fractal geometry Meteorology-butterfly effect Biology-complex adaptive

systems

From Physics Envy To Biology Envy

Surprising Convergence: We Stand on the Shoulders of Giants

Complex Adaptive Systems

((( Murray Gell-Mann )))The Quark & the Jaguar

((( Stuart Kaufmann )))At Home in the Universe

((( John Holland )))Emergence

((( Brian Arthur )))Increasing Returns

EcologyJames Lovelock, Gaia Hypothesis

MeteorologyEdward Lorenz, The Butterfly Effect

SociologyRobert Axelrod, Complexity of Cooperation

ChemistryIlya Prigogine, Order Out of Chaos

PhysiologyAry Goldberger, Cardiac Research

Socio-BiologyE.O. Wilson Consilience

Computer ScienceChristopher Langton

GeneticsR.C. Lewontin, Biology as Ideology

PhilosophyKen Wilbur, Integral Science & Religion

Physics-EcologyFritjof Capra, Web of Life

MathematicsMandlebrot, Fractals

PhysicsDavid Bohm, Wholeness

& the Implicate Order

More Giants Complexity applied to organizations

Complex Adaptive Systems

People PracticesJeffery Pfeffer

Org DevelopmentDavid Cooperrider

LeadershipGareth Morgan

Market StrategyKevin Kelly

Strategy/LeadershipRalph Stacey

InnovationEverett Rogers

ManagementBrenda Zimmerman

PlanningHenry Mintzberg

StrategyS. Brown & K. Eisenhardt

LeadershipMeg Wheatley

LearningEtienne Wegner

ManagementJeffery Goldstein

Organzing StructureDee Hock

SustainabilityPaul Hawken/James Moore

KnowledgeIkujiro NonakaOrg Dynamics

Roger Lewin/Birute Regine

Complexity In Practice Dee Hock -- managed the banking “commons” &

balanced competition/cooperation while leading VISA (Birth of the Chaordic Age)

Arie de Geus -- brought a natural system lens to Royal Dutch Shell & scenario planning (The Living Company)

Orpheus Chamber Symphony -- a leaderless group Tom Petzinger -- WSJ stories & The New Pioneers Roger Lewin & Birute Regine -- The Soul at Work Irv Dardik’s Heart Waves -- applied to health and

chronic disease (clinical trials are underway)

Emerging Insights

Key Attributes

Elements of the system change themselves (they adapt) Complex behaviors can emerge from a few simple rules

that are applied locally Emergence of novelty & creativity is a natural state Order emerges without central control Non-linearity: small changes can have BIG effects Systems are embedded in systems & their

interdependency matters Not predictable in detail: forecasting is an inexact, yet

boundable, art Co-evolution of life proceeds through constant tension &

balance

Key AttributesAdaptable Elements

EmbeddedSystems

Co-EvolutionNon-Linearity

SimpleRules

Not Predictablein Detail

Order w/oCentral Control

Natural Emergence &

Creativity

Simple Rules in Practice

Living systems follow “simple rules” Craig Reynolds’ “Boids” simulation uses

minimum rules of interaction Gareth Morgan’s “min specs” Simple rules include “Must do’s” or “Never

do’s”

Example: Reynolds’ Steering Rules

Maintain a minimum distance from other boids and objects

Match speed of neighboring boids Move toward the center of mass of

flock-mates in your area

Complex “flocking” emerges!

Living Systems Are Non-Linear

Not predictable in long-term Future not just unknown but

unknowable Small events may trigger huge effects Huge efforts may have negligible

effects

Rosa Parks’ refusal to yield her seat

Weather, hurricanes

A statement or word used by Alan Greenspan

Examples Of Non-Linearity

The 15% Principle Learning how to “flow” with & “tune to”

change in complex systems W. Edwards Deming suggested that everyone

-- from the CEO to the front line worker -- has influence over 15% of their system. The other 85% is beyond their discretionary control.

Recognize that you have 15% discretionary influence… it may sound small but you can use it to make a difference that makes a difference.

Simple Rules & Attractors“Auto-Pilot” Rules.... New Pattern

Emerging

Search for simple rules, subtle patterns or

rhythms that attract natural energy in your system.

How Does an Attractor Pattern Shift or Flip?

A system chooses to be disturbed the disturbance gets amplified it creates instability the system falls apart it flips or shifts to a new attractor

(e.g. new simple rules) by searching for & organizing

around new meaning

Source: Margaret Wheatley

“How To” Disturb & Amplify

Allow new information into the system Work with organizational boundaries Connect systems to environment Question differences Challenge assumptions Take advantage of chance and

serendipity

Adapted from: Jeffrey Goldstein, The Unshackled Organization

Chunking Building on what works from the

ground up

The only way to make a successful complex system is to begin with a simple system that works. Complex systems are not instantly installed... they are assembled incrementally from pieces that can operate independently.

The interdependent parts share control and act locally in parallel. A central command slows things down in a distributed network. Source: Kevin Kelly

Lessons From Physiology

Healthy Heart OR Dying Heart

Heart Rate Dynamics

Dynamics

Ordered Disordered

ZONE of HEALTH

Point of Maximum Adaptability

Threshold Threshold

Dynamic Adaptability

Application: Heart Wave Cycles

Cyclic Exercise & Health A series of activation-relaxation

cycles Pulse rate rises & falls to generate a

sequence of heart rate waves The timing, intensity and “rhythm”

of one cycle is related to the previous cycle

Conventional Exercise & Health Continuous, prolonged

Elevated, extended pulse rate

Interval training Increasing, sequenced pulse rate

That state of wholeness in which the

individual is poised for maximal adaptability.

It is a state characterized by a dynamic

tension resulting from the interplay of interactive forces at

many different scales.

A New Definition of Health

Nine Interdependent Principles

Complexity Lens

SeekParadox

Shadow System

Good Enough Vision

Multiple Actions

Chunking Tune ToThe Edge

Clockware/Swarmware

Competition/Cooperation

Nine Emerging & Connected Principles

View your system through the lens of complexity

Build a “good enough” vision, use a “min specs” approach

When life is far from certain, lead with clockware and swarmware in tandem

More Principles... Uncover and work with

paradox & tension

Tune your place to the edge

Go for multiple actions at the fringes, let direction arise

More Principles...

Listen to the “shadow system”

Grow complex systems by chunking

Mix competition and cooperation

Reflection – Interdependent Principles

Complexity Lens

SeekParadox

Shadow System

Good Enough Vision

Multiple Actions

Chunking Tune ToThe Edge

Clockware/Swarmware

Competition/Cooperation

Kevin Kelly’s 10 Rules for the New Economy

Opportunities Before Efficiencies

Let Go at the TopIncreasing

Returns

RelationshipTech

Follow the Free

Embrace the Swarm

From Placesto Spaces

No Harmony, All Flux

Plenitude, not Scarcity

Feed the Web First

V. Stories that Illustrate Complexity Principles in

Practice

Stories We Will Explore

Improving Admissions by Tuning to Patients

Growing a Sustainable, “Green” Carpet Business

[Add your favorite stories from Edgeware, Edgeplace, The New Pioneers, The Soul at Work,…]

Heroic Individual ActionsLuke Skywalker (The Force)

Guru-GuideObi Wan Kenobi &Yoda

TricksterDarth Vader

Blocking ForceImperial Forces (The Dark Side)

Traditional Storytelling

Heroic Individual Actions New Attractor Pattern

Guru-GuideAdaptivePrinciples-At-Play

TricksterWaves of Emergence & Serendipity

Blocking Force“Autopilot” Attractor

(Self-Fulfilling Prophecy)

Storytelling Through a Complexity Lens

New Attractor Pattern> Notice how new patterns emergein far-from-equilibrium conditions

AdaptivePrinciples> Discern complexity practices-in-action

Waves of Emergence> Expect novelty & surprise that dampens or amplifies change

“Autopilot” Attractor(Self-Fulfilling Prophecy)

> Uncover subtle/simple rules embedded in current patterns of

behavior Keith McCandless, 1999

Improving Flow by Tuning to Patients

Who is involved: nurses, physicians, administrators, ancillary departments

Focus: Improving patient flow through in a hospital based outpatient unit in Utah (LDS)

Results: 50% increase in volume without plant expansion, reduced expense, dramatically improved patient satisfaction

Source: The New Pioneers, by Tom Petzinger, Jr. (pages 87-90)

New Attractor PatternNotice how new patterns emergein far-from-equilibrium conditions> “Do what is right for the patient!”

> Frustration & commitment to change

AdaptivePrinciplesDiscern complexity practices-in-action> Seek paradox> Tune to the edge> Good-enough vision> Simple rules

Waves of EmergenceExpect novelty & surprise that dampens or amplifies change> Patients can walk to surgery!> All stakeholders benefit when patient is the focus> Common-sense AND radical at the same time

“Autopilot” AttractorUncover subtle/simple rules embedded

in current patterns of behavior> Do what the surgeons want… and, don’t question it!

> Acceptance of “The operation is a success, the patient is pissed!”

Growing a Sustainable, “Green” Carpet Business

Who is involved: Executive (Ray Anderson) and managers at the Interface flooring company; suppliers & customers

Focus: Extreme (and green) reduction in resource use through developing sustainable production and business practices

Results: Immediate waste reductions won favor among investors; tens of millions of dollars went to the bottom line; market differentiation

Source: The New Pioneers, by Tom Petzinger, Jr. (pages 246-253)

New Attractor PatternNotice how new patterns emergein far-from-equilibrium conditions

> Early 1990’s recession; Ray’s soul searching; Ecology of Commerce> Pesky customers asking about recycled materials; grow by cleaning

AdaptivePrinciplesDiscern complexity practices-in-action> Systems-in-systems interdependency> Good-enough vision> Simple rules

Waves of EmergenceExpect novelty & surprise that dampens or amplifies change> Some suppliers got on board> “Evergreen leasing”> “All beauty starts with nature” & customers noticed

“Autopilot” AttractorUncover subtle/simple rules embedded

in current patterns of behavior> Sell “flexibility”; buy supplies cheap; and, grow by acquisition

> Manage internal production -- ignore how your suppliers produce their goods and how your customers dispose of your

product

New Attractor Pattern> Notice how new patterns emergein far-from-equilibrium conditions

AdaptivePrinciples> Discern complexity practices-in-action

Waves of Emergence> Expect novelty & surprise that dampens or amplifies change

“Autopilot” Attractor(Self-Fulfilling Prophecy)

> Uncover subtle/simple rules embedded in current patterns of

behavior Keith McCandless, 1999

Material and Ideas Contributed by:

Kevin Dooley, PhD; Glenda Eoyang; Ralph Stacey, PhD; Ary Goldberger, MD; Brenda Zimmerman, PhD; Jeffrey Goldstein, PhD; Gareth Morgan, PhD; Curt Lindberg; Paul Plsek; and, a vibrant community of complexity pioneers

Composed and developed for VHA Inc. by Keith McCandless in Seattle (keithmccandless@earthlink.net)

Simplicity on the Other Side of Complexity An Introduction to Complexity Science and Management.

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