Post on 06-Apr-2015
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Sistema operazionale per il Canton Ticino
11.04.23 1Kanton Tessin / BAFU Hochwasservorhersage
Calibration
- Already calibrated areas:
Manual CalibrationPREVAH
Manual CalibrationRS3.0
Calibration approach
Tuneable Parameters
• Precipitation correction• Threshold coefficient for surface runoff /quick runoff formation
• Storage time for surface runoff• Storage time for interflow
Xml-file (discharge)
Tuneable Parameters
•Hydropower infrastructure (intakes,
derivations, storage, powerplants)
•Storage accumulation/release
(volume, energy demand,
legislations, etc..)
•River bed hydraulics (slope, river
bed geometry)
Strategien Kalibrierung
– Langfristig (Jahresverlauf)• Staureferenzniveau
– Kurzfristig (Tages/Wochen)
• Strompreise
– Rahmenbedingungen• Wehrreglement und andere
Kalibrierung RS3.0
Fokus auf: Zielniveaukurven (saisonale Volumen Verschiebung) Umleiten von Wasser durch Fassungen, Galerien (geographische Verschiebung)
Calibration approach RoutingSystem Target Level Curve
Die Target Level Curve wird verwendet um das langzeitverhalten der grossen Reservoire zu simulieren.
Falls vorhanden wird die Zielkurve über gemittelte historische Jahreskurven definiert (in diesem fall 2000-2011)Falls nicht wird die Zielkurve definiert in dem man den Ertrag des Kraftwerkes optimiert (saisonalen Energiepreisschwankungen nutzen und Überlaufereignisse minimieren)
Sambuco:64 Mio m3
Strategien Kalibrierung Speichermanagement:
– Kombination von lang- und kurz-fristiger Optimierung
• Staureferenzniveau
• Strompreise
Führt zu Turbinieren trotz tiefer
Preise Turbinieren trotz tiefem
Level
Kalibrierung RS3.0
Calibration and validation results Moesa:
Moesa Lumino-SasselloEfficiency criteria
1999-2004Calibration
2005-2010Validation
1999-2010
NS 0.668 0.631 0.66
NSlog 0.55 0.487 0.529
VOL -302.9 280.9 -22
Yearly discharge maxima
1999-2004Calibration
2005-2010Validation
1999-2010
NS 0.78 0.70 0.75
NSlog 0.83 0.76 0.8
VOL -17 35 18
CalancascaEfficiency criteria
Calibration and validation results Moesa:
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Decobserved [mm] 35.9 28 40.4 79.2 252.2 228.5 159.5 128 109.1 124.5 131.1 65.9simulated [mm] 31.8 29 48.4 95.2 239.7 212.9 160.4 141.4 115.2 124.5 129.7 52.2
Mean monthly sum of discharge
Calibration and validation results Moesa:
Comparison of discharge
Calibration and validation results Moesa:
Discharge components:
R0= Surface runoff [mm h-1]; R1= Interflow [mm h-1]; R2= Total baseflow [mm h-1]; RTOT= Total runoff [mm h-1]
• Mean monthly water balance for the long-time perios, sum of all years (table)• Mean yearly water balance (table)• Maps of some water balance variables (whole area)
Further results, which will be included in the report:
Composite of 37 PREVAH sub-basins 1998-2010: Left: average annual actual evapotranspiration [mm]; Right: average annual discharge [mm]
Calibration and validation results Ponte Tresa:
1999-2004Calibration
2005-2010Validation
1999-2010
NS 0.826 0.807 0.822
NSlog 0.837 0.805 0.824
VOL -823.88 -494.19 -1318.06
Difficulties during calibration process:
- Low NS and Nslog-values for Riva San Vitale_Laveggio, Porlezza, Lugano- Scariolo
Riva San Vitale_Laveggio Porlezza Lugano Scariolo
1999-2004Calib.
2005-2010Valid.
1999-2010
NS 0.564 0.061 0.421
NSlog 0.599 0.313 0.474
VOL 300 -259 41
2007-2009Calib.
2000-2002, 2010Valid.
2001-2001, 2006-2010
NS 0.5 0.242 0.313
NSlog 0.686 0.61 0.598
VOL -57 -53 -1
2001-2005Calib.
0.301 2001-2010
NS 0.431 0.28 0.358
NSlog 0.119 0.364 0.261
VOL -17 25 8
Difficulties during calibration process:
Bsp: Riva San Vitale_Laveggio 2001
PREVAH