Post on 26-Mar-2015
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Slide 1 of 37
26 June, 2000
• Flaws in the Capital Allocation Process • The Capex requirements • The Over-promise on delivery
• The Way Ahead
Excom Early Look Business Plan 2000
Slide 2 of 37
26 June, 2000
The Good News• High quality internally consistent data
submissions
• Abundance of projects competing for funds:
–1.9 bln US$ Exploration–7.0 bln US$ Production
Slide 3 of 37
26 June, 2000
The Bad News• Projects appear over-optimistic both in
Exploration and Production
• The Capital Allocation Process appears to be flawed with overstatements of key parameters to secure funds
We run the risk of initiating an Over-promise Under-delivery Cycle……...
Slide 4 of 37
26 June, 2000
Exploration-Overstated Value?
0
10002000300040005000600070008000
900010000
1100012000
0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000Cum Expex ($ mln)
Cu
mu
lati
ve IB
V (
$ m
ln)
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 40-50 50-60 60-70 70-80 80-90
1999 CA
2000 CAPos to FID showsno major differences in 99 submission to 2000
Pos to FID
Exp
ex S
pen
d
(No
rmal
ised
)
Salkhalin pre-consolidation 2000 Raw Data Submission
Each Exploration $ spend in 2001 adds $9 IBV at PSV14
1999 Raw Data Submission Each Exploration $ spend in 2000 adds $6 IBV at PSV14
Slide 5 of 37
26 June, 2000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Oil
Nigeria
MRH
Gas
Deepwater
Time to FID and first productionin data submissions very optimistic
and unrelated to historic performance
The majority of 2001 exploration spend is for projects planned
to take FID in 2002
Exploration: Overstated Delivery?E
xpex
200
1 ($
mln
)
Slide 6 of 37
26 June, 2000
US
$ m
ln M
OD
CAPEX REQUEST 2001-2005Raw Data Submission
EP-Global Capex per CA Cat, Theme.ep
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Commercial Resource Proposed A & D Activity New E & A Firm E & A EB2
New Dev. > $20 mln Shell Share Tranche 3 Tranche 2 Tranche 1
PostFID Project Corporate Existing Asset
Proposed spend is ca $7 bln per year over the Plan Period*
*including follow-on E&A Woodside, and Shell Canada, excludes Saudi gas
Total Capex request 2001 = $7.1 blnTotal Commitments 2001 = $2.7 bln
Commitment levels suspect
Slide 7 of 37
26 June, 2000
Production Forecast per Region and CA Cat - Raw data.rep
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Production: Can we deliver on this promise?
Nigeria (SPDC)
Nigeria (SNEPCO)
Others
2266 LE
2291235123272319
Nigeria is major part of EP GrowthInside existing portfolio …..
Others are USA, Angola, Iran, Athabasca, Brasil, etc
Da
ily P
rod
uc
tio
n (
Kb
oe
/d)
Slide 8 of 37
26 June, 2000
Production Forecast per Region and CA Cat - Raw data.rep
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Commercial Resource
Proposed A & D Activity
New E & A (Non Approved expex)
Firm E & A (Approved expex Funds)
EB-2
New Dev. > $20 mln Shell Share
Tranche 3
Tranche 2
Tranche 1
PostFID Project
Corporate
Existing Asset
OIL PRODUCTION 2001-2005Raw Data Submission
Pro
du
cti
on
‘000
bb
l/d
Oil Production from ExistingAssets halves during Plan Period (10 % per year)
Post FID and tranches replacesdecline in Existing Asset base
Growth relies on E&A
Slide 9 of 37
26 June, 2000
Major Concerns• Existing Assets require 800 Million US$ in 2001 without
adding production...
• Most large post-FID projects indicate underdelivery compared with 1999
• New projects have very aggressive FID dates (36 FIDs in 2001 excluding big tickets e.g. Saudi Gas) and possibly overstated value promises
• E&A Follow Up extremely optimistic when compared with history
• Not enough funds for promising projects and strategic options
Slide 10 of 37
26 June, 2000
CAPEX CREAMING CURVE
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
Existing Asset
Post FID ProjectOptions
NP
V (
$mln
)
Cumulative Capex in 2001 ($mln)
The promiseThe delivery
AOSPEA NLNG
Bonga MainMalampaya
Historical performance raises questions over ambitious future promises
But…some big projects approved were poorer ranking
Slide 11 of 37
26 June, 2000
Exploration Discoveries 1990-1999Development Percentage @1.1.2000
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
90-94 25% Developed
95-99 7% Developed
10 years ONLY 15% Developed
34%
5 yearPlan Period
Promise
Plan Excl. Sakhalin & OKIOC
>> 34% Development percentage Exploration discoveries within 5 years has not been achieved to date ….
Bonga discovered ‘95, onstream 2003 Brazil, not a well drilled yet, production by 2005
SableIsland
Slide 12 of 37
26 June, 2000
Shell Malaysia (total) KN ROUND 2 01-2000 1999Shell Malaysia (total) KN S1S2 01-2000 1999Shell Iran Soroosh /Nowrooz 01-2000 11-1999Shell USA Oregano 05-2000 04-2000Shell USA Serrano 05-2000 04-2000
Norske Shell Garn West 03-2000 04-2000Shell USA North Marlin 04-2000 07-2000
Shell UK Expro Mandarin 10-2000 09-2000
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Uzbekistan Alan & Kandym 07-2000 01-2001
Brunei Shell Champion West Existing Facilities 12-2000 01-2001
SOGU Dan Infill and Debottlenecking 03-2000 03-2001
Shell Egypt N.V. Obaiyed South Devt 11-2000 07-2001Shell UK Expro Goldeneye 10-2000 12-2001
Shell Australia NWS LNG Expansion U/S 03-2000 01-2004Shell Australia ALNG LNG Train 1 U/S 09-2000 01-2004Brunei Shell Egret Development 10-2000 01-2004
Shell Capsa Cerro Tuyunti Sth. 11-2000 ?
Shell USA Na Kika 05-2000
Shell UK Expro Cleaver Bank High 10-2000 10-2001
A/S Norske Shell Sogn Gjoa Development 09-2000 ?Shell Devt. Pakistan B.V. Kirthar Block : Bhit dev 03-2000 ?
Country Projects with FIDs in 2000
MAJOR PROJECT FIDs 2000 from BP’99
BP ‘99 Timing
CA 2000 Timing
07-2000
SPDC Cawthorne Channel 09-2000 10-2000SPDC Bonny Terminal Refurbishment 07-2000 07-2000
Slipped
On-time
Slide 13 of 37
26 June, 2000
MAJOR PROJECT FIDs 2000 from BP’99
No
of
Maj
or
FID
s in
Pla
n
•12 major Base Plan projects planned for FID in 2000 (BP 99) - 5 will now take FID• 13 major Options projects planned for FID in 2000 (BP 99) - 6 will now take FID
0
5
10
15
20
1999 99 Actual 2000 00 LE 2001
BangestanKuwait Oil25
30 ChampionDan Infill T2T upstreamCleaver BankEgretBangestanObayied SouthGoldeneye
25
30Options DeferredBase Deferred
Options Plan/Actual
Base Plan/Actual
36
Slide 14 of 37
26 June, 2000
Country ProjectVAR coverage in 2001
on Total Capex
MAJOR PROJECTS WITH PROMISES OF FID IN 2001….
36 Projects with >20 mln spend excluding Major Options e.g. Bangestan, Saudi Gas
Total Capex from 2001 FIDprojects amounts to $4 bln in plan period
Australia (Direct) Gorgon SMDS Upstream 0Brunei Champion West Central Platform Dev 1Brunei East Gas Expansion 4Brunei Egret Development. Phase 1 3
Denmark Halfdan Phase III 102Denmark Halfdan Phase II 41Denmark GSA4 13Denmark Dan Infill and Debottlenecking 8Denmark Skjold Phase II 32Egypt Obaiyed South & Compression I 26
Malaysia 96 PSC : BT/SF Stage IVC(SF30) WI Int. 1New Zealand Pohokura Development 3Nigeria (SNEPCO) Erha Main 48Nigeria (SNEPCO) EWTF (Extended Well Test Facility) 118Nigeria (SPDC) 92 Offshore Pipeline AF - NLNG 1-5 87Nigeria (SPDC) 49 UGHELLI 24Nigeria (SPDC) 66 OTUMARA - NLNG 4/5 16Nigeria (SPDC) 67 SAPELE 1Nigeria (SPDC) 45 OGUTA 3Nigeria (SPDC) 61 BONNY - NLNG 3 1Nigeria (SPDC) 98 WAGP 22
FID (5 %)
Concept (3 %)
Feasibility (42 %)
Initiation
(<1 %)
No VAR
(50 %)
2001Capex
2001-2005Capex (Risked)
46753840
475657542
3285
3126
902128184122117907729
22
Slide 15 of 37
26 June, 2000
Norway Kollsnes and Vestprosess Upgrade 0Philippines Malampaya Oil Rim Devt - unrisked 6Russia (Rest of) Salym 29Syria Souedie 0UK Goldeneye 7UK Loyal Phase II (W.o.S) 31UK Puffin Field Development 9UK Schiehallion Extension Claw 9UK Scoter 0UK Schiehallion North Channel 0
USA Holstein 26USA Habanero 0USA Manatee 14USA Alex Gas Devt Phase 2 22Venezuela 02 - 05 Further Dev. (1) 0
MAJOR PROJECTS WITH FID IN 2001 - continued
FID (5 %)
Concept (3 %)
Feasibility (42 %)
Initiation
(<1 %)
No VAR
(50 %)
Country Project VAR coverage in 2001 on Total Capex
Total Capex from 2001 FIDprojects circa $4 bln in plan period
2001Capex
2001-2005Capex (Risked)
5383
12926
1516562575521
32739332264
36 Projects with >20 mln spend excluding Major Options e.g. Bangestan, Saudi Gas
Slide 16 of 37
26 June, 2000
Existing Assets / Post FID Ranking (2001 Capex > $20 million)$
14/b
bl A
ttra
cti
ven
ess
Strategic ImperativeLow Medium High
High
Medium
Low
124
37
689
5
$14/bbl
45%
65%
MRHNigeriaDeepwaterGasOil
Australia - NWS Existing US
Canada Existing Assets
Malaysia - MLNG PSC New (F23/F6/E11 Comp.)
Netherlands -NAM Plan - Scenario 1
Abu Dhabi - Existing Oil Business
Denmark - Halfdan Phase I
Oman - 1a PB01M NFA TRAN1 2000 W
Syria - AFPC Existing Facilities
UK - Existing assets
Oman - GISCO
Philippines - Malampaya Gas Devt
SPDC - 42 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 3
SPDC - 48 SOKU - NLNG 1-2
USA - Brutus
USA - Crosby
Argentina - VALLE MORADO
Egypt - POST FID Obaiyed
Malaysia - MLNG Dua PSC New (M4. B11. etc)Iran - Soroosh/Nowrooz Integ.SPDC - 90 EA Equity and Carry - NLNG 3
SPDC - 91 Offshore Pipeline - NLNG 1-5
Canada - Athabasca Oil Sands Project
Brunei - Ampa Fairley Rationalisation Phase 1
USA - UrsaUK - ExAss Brent Gas Contract
SNEPCO - Bonga-Main
SPDC - 02 Value PreservationSPDC - 03 Bonny TerminalNorway - Troll OilRussia - Caspian Pipeline ConsortiumSakhalin - MolikpaqUK - ExAss SkuaUSA - Aera Equity
Slide 17 of 37
26 June, 2000
$14
/bb
l Att
rac
tive
ne
ss
Strategic ImperativeLow Medium High
High
Medium
Low
124
37
689
5
$14/bbl
45%
65%
MRHNigeriaDeepwaterGasOil
Base
Options
Egypt - Obaiyed South & comp. I
Netherlands - NAM Plan - Scenario 3
Netherlands - NAM Scenario 2 - 1st Increml trancheUK - Tranche1 FID01USA - Tranche 1. DW. non-EB2. FID 2001SPDC - 49 UGHELLIOman - 2aPB01M DEV TRAN1 2000 W
Syria - AFPC Tranche 1a (FID 2000)
Thailand - Tranche 1 S1 2000
UK -Tranche1 FID00 committed
USA - Oregano
USA - Holstein
SNEPCO - Ext. WTF
Russia - Salym
UK - Tranche1 FID01 FOP
UK - Schieh infill 1
UK - Loyal Phase II
UK - Magnus EORUSA - Offshore PipelineIran - Ahwaz Area Major Bangestan Reservoir DevelopmentSPDC - 92 Offshore Pipeline AF - NLNG 1-5
USA - Nakika
UK - Tranche3 FID01 FOP
UK - Foin Infill1
UK - Foinaven East
SNEPCO - Erha Main
UK - Tranche 3 FID01 FOP
USA - SerranoDenmark - Gas DevelopmentsSPDC - 41 CAWTHORNE CHANNEL - NLNG 3SPDC - 46 SOUTH FORCADOS - NLNG 3SPDC - 114 H BLOCK Appr. (2001-AF)Denmark - Skjold Phase IIDenmark - Halfdan Phase IIDenmark - Halfdan Phase IIIOman - 7a PB01M DEV TRAN2 2000 WUK - MandarinUSA - Tranche 1. non-DW. non-EB2. FID 2001UK - Tranche 2 FID00 committedUSA - Tranche 2. non-DW. non-EB2. FID 2001USA - Alex Phase 2UK - Penguin DevelopmentUK - Goosander
EM
PT
Y
$ 5.5 BLN CAPEX CEILING FOR EXISTING OUs Tranches 1-3 & New Projects (FID Q3+ 2000 & 2001 Capex > $20 mln)
Slide 18 of 37
26 June, 2000
Tranches 1-3 & New Projects (FID Q3+ 2000 & 2001 Capex > $20 mln)
$14
/bb
l Att
rac
tive
ne
ss
Strategic Imperative
Low Medium High
High
Med
ium
Low
12
4
37
689
5
$14/bbl
45%
65%
MRHNigeriaDeepwaterGasOil
Base
Options
Syria - AFPC Tranche 1a (FID 2000)
Thailand - Tranche 1 S1 2000
UK -Tranche 1 FID00 committed
USA - Oregano
USA - HolsteinSNEPCO - Ext WTF
Russia - Salym
UK - Tranche1 FID01 FOP
UK - Schieh infill 1
UK - Loyal Phase II
UK - Magnus EORUSA - Offshore PipelineIran - Ahwaz Area Major Bangestan Reservoir DevelopmentSPDC - 92 Offshore Pipeline AF - NLNG 1-5
USA - Nakika
UK - Tranche3 FID01 FOP
UK - Foin Infill1UK - Foinaven East
SNEPCO - Erha Main
UK - Tranche 3 FID01 FOP
USA - SerranoDenmark - Gas DevelopmentsSPDC - 41 CAWTHORNE CHANNEL - NLNG 3SPDC - 46 SOUTH FORCADOS - NLNG 3SPDC - 114 H BLOCK Appr. (2001-AF)Denmark - Skjold Phase IIDenmark - Halfdan Phase IIDenmark - Halfdan Phase IIIOman - 7a PB01M DEV TRAN2 2000 WUK - MandarinUSA - Tranche 1. non-DW. non-EB2. FID 2001UK - Tranche 2 FID00 committedUSA - Tranche 2. non-DW. non-EB2. FID 2001USA - Alex Phase 2UK - Penguin DevelopmentUK - Goosander
Egypt - Obaiyed South discovery & compression INetherlands - NAM Plan - Scenario 3Netherlands - NAM Scenario 2 - first incremental trancheUK - Tranche1 FID01SPDC - 49 UGHELLIOman - 2aPB01M DEV TRAN1 2000 WUSA - Tranche 1. DW. non-EB2. FID 2001
Total Capex (2001) in Box 1 is $470 mlnTotal Capex (2001) Box 2 is $200 mln
Total Capex (2001) inBox 3 is $910 mill
EM
PT
Y
Projects inserted to Base Plan
$ 5.5 BLN CAPEX CEILING……DENMARK & BIG PROJECTS IN
Slide 19 of 37
26 June, 2000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
55000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000
CAPEX CREAMING CURVENPV Bln $
Cumulative Capex in 2001
AOSP
EA NLNG
Malampaya Deepwater OptionsNa KikaHolsteinSerranoOregano
Existing Assets Post FID
New Devt & Tranches Big Tickets
Bonga Main
Eh
raA
ng
ola
18
De
vB
an
ge
sta
nS
ak
ha
lin
Za
po
lya
rno
ye
So
uth
Pa
rs
Bra
zil
Ch
ina
Wo
od
sid
e D
ea
lS
au
di
Ga
sL
iby
aN
EM
ED
FID in next 30 months
Success Case $ 3-4 Bln/yr
Slide 20 of 37
26 June, 2000
The Way Forward..(1)• We accept the flaws in the process, challenge the submissions at the
workshop, build the 2000 Plan and make a “promise adjustment” at Excom level:
– existing assets minus 200 Million US$– post-FID minus 400 Million US$– weed out “false promises” to the tune of 400 Million US$– adjust production promise
Manage Improvement through the scorecards
We must address the integrity flaws in the CA process and send a very strong signal...
Slide 21 of 37
26 June, 2000
• We demand a resubmission….we change the workshop:
– We explain our problems to the delegates at workshop.– We ask the delegates to return to their OU/NVOs and rework their
submissions and restore reality– Key OU/NVOs will be invited for a hard challenge session with the
Excom (large OUs) or their RBD.
• After resubmission of sanitised data, a final ranking will be done with the RBA/RFA community.
The Way Forward..(2)
Slide 22 of 37
26 June, 2000
Two Possible Schedules
Workshop
Workshop
OUFinancials
Allocation
Final OU Plan
OUFinancials
Excom Adjustment
Improve
Resub-mission
Final OU Plan
27-28/6 10/7 6/9 14/9
Improve
10/7 17/7 28/7 6/9
Improve/challenge EPB-RBD
Slide 23 of 37
26 June, 2000
BACKUPS ….DETAILS
Slide 24 of 37
26 June, 2000
BaseCapex 2001 IBV $14 Boe/d 2001 Boe/d 2002 Boe/d 2003
Deepwater 454 5418 395 438 386
Gas 1238 16551 1351 1323 1361
MRH 278 34 139 180 205
Nigeria 1291 4509 265 288 494
Oil 2308 14271 1586 1524 1438
Total 5570 40783 3735 3754 3884
OptionsCapex 2001 IBV $14 Boe/d 2001 Boe/d 2002 Boe/d 2003
Deepwater 520 29176 2 33 100
Gas 469 20702 12 65 139
MRH 83 1582 0 5 12
Nigeria 220 4116 7 38 59
Oil 466 10374 41 169 286
Total 1757 65950 63 312 597
KEY METRICS - RAW DATA
Deepwater excludes SNEPCORanked out production in 2001 63,000 bbls/dDoes not reflect OUs outside EP control - (SOGU)
Value continues to be dominated by traditional OUsNigeria dominance of production growth not reflected in value
Slide 25 of 37
26 June, 2000
Country Name Project Name CA Cat FID yr Status 2001 Capex 2001 MBOE/d
UK Tranche 2 FID00 FOP Tranche 2 2000 Option 5.96 4.40
UK Tranche 3 FID00 FOP Tranche 3 2000 Base 12.60 21.27
UK Tranche1 FID00 FOP Tranche 1 2000 Base 15.46 22.73
UK Tranche1 FID01 FOP Tranche 1 2001 Option 25.23 5.08
UK Tranche1 FID02 FOP Tranche 1 2002 Option 0.29 0.00
UK Tranche2 FID01 FOP Tranche 2 2001 Option 8.51 1.03
UK Tranche2 FID02 FOP Tranche 2 2002 Option 0.00 0.00
UK Tranche3 FID01 FOP Tranche 3 2001 Option 31.91 2.39
UK Tranche3 FID02 FOP Tranche 3 2002 Option 0.00 0.00
Sum: 99.94 56.89
Short Term Oil Projects are predominantly in Shell Expro…..
UTCs $3.5 - 5.5/bblVIRs [$14] 0.4 - 0.8 low / medium strategic fit. …….
SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITIES ….RANKED OUT
Slide 26 of 37
26 June, 2000
CAPEX CREAMING CURVE - THE BUILDING BLOCKS
25000
27000
29000
31000
33000
35000
37000
39000
41000
4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000
Tranche 1
Tranche 2
Tranche 3
New Dev. > $20 mln Shell Share
EB2
Tranche 3
Tranche 1
NPV $14
Cumulative Capex in 2001
DE-GSA4
EG-Obaiyed South
NI-Ughelli
BR-Champion West
UK-GoldeneyeMalampaya Oil rim
NI-LNG 4/5DE-Halfdan IITCGPSalym
SunrisePuffinBangestanNI-LNG 1-5
HolsteinNa Kika
Ehra NI-OgutaBR-East gas expDE-Dan infill
The promise
On merit NaKika, Holstein & Ehra do not rank
Tranche 2
Slide 27 of 37
26 June, 2000
“EXISTING ASSET” CATEGORY CAPEX 2001
EP-Global Capex on Existing Assets.rep
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160U
SA
Nig
eria
(S
PD
C)
UK
Om
an
Ab
u D
hab
i
Net
her
lan
ds
Bru
nei
Au
stra
lia (
Dir
ect)
Syr
ia
Mal
aysi
a
No
rway
Eg
ypt
Ger
man
y
Den
mar
k
Gab
on
New
Zea
lan
d
US
$ m
ln M
OD
Country Name Capex 2001
Abu Dhabi 52
Australia (Direct) 27
Brunei 34
Denmark 7
Egypt 15
Gabon 7
Germany 13
Malaysia 17
Netherlands 47
New Zealand 2
Nigeria (SPDC) 152
Norway 15
Oman 81
Syria 23
UK 144
USA 160
Total 794
ie 800 mln - 18% of Devt Capex Budget……• Same level as 2000• no additional production generated• keeping brownfield plant operating & ready for new devts• Value adding or value erosion (vs 502Fs)
Slide 28 of 37
26 June, 2000
Oil Production by Country, CA-Category, Theme.rep
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1.000U
SA
UK
Nig
eri
a
Om
an
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Ma
lay
sia
Bru
ne
i
De
nm
ark
Om
an
(G
ISC
O)
Ab
u D
ha
bi
No
rwa
y
Au
str
alia
(D
ire
ct)
Ira
n
Ge
rma
ny
Ca
na
da
(A
OS
P)
Sy
ria
Ga
bo
n
Eg
yp
t
Arg
en
tin
a
Th
aila
nd
Ve
ne
zue
la
Oth
ers
2001
2002 2003 2004
2005
'000 boe/d OIL & GAS PRODUCTION 2001-2005 BY OURaw Data Submission
Production dominated by the big three in plan period
Without Nigeria growth,…- still only 2 OUs ~ 300+ Kboe/d S/S- 5 OUs ~ 200 - 300 kboe/d by 2005 - 3 OUs ~100 - 200 kboe/d by 2005- 10 OUs~ <100 kboe/d OUs by 2005
Nigeria Largest producer by 2005 with threefold growth!
Slide 29 of 37
26 June, 2000
Raw data quality is good, ……….but there is a large request will be a tough competition for funds……….Large number of attractive new devts & tranche funds
Large amount of funds for existing assets & Post FIDs ca $4 BlnTo maintain oil production requires ca $5 Bln, with 100 % delivery
Before we consider more capex funds…..there are some issues….
But new devt “promises” are different from Vol- 1 findings……….Most post FID projects have been under delivering production……….Most projects have aggressive schedules vs Vol-1 reality……….VAR programme will have to be accelerated to meet FID planned……….Last years E&A followup developments have largely not materialised
How do we avoid an “over promise & under delivery” cycle…?
A few Outcomes from the Raw Data…..….
Slide 30 of 37
26 June, 2000
KEY ISSUES
CURRENT PERFORMANCE •Production under-performance
• 1999: UK, Egypt, SPDC, Syria, Netherlands• 2000 LE: Oil : Essentially on target but SPDC,
Gas : Egypt, Argentina, Netherlands, US
• Major New Project Delivery• 1999 on-stream disappointments due mainly to project schedule delays• 2000 onwards (CA 2000) suggests production under-delivery (sub-surface & facilities)• Reserves Replacement• 2000 LE 24 % with major concerns throughout Plan Period
FUTURE PROMISES• Continued reliance upon Nigeria (and our ability to grow oil production there)• Need to avoid over promising and under delivering cycle. • Continued pursuit of major Capex spend outside of existing portfolio ..are regretting oil?
Slide 31 of 37
26 June, 2000EP-Global Committed Capex in 2001 by CA-Category.rep
1256
697
978
621669
199
547
66
297
101
279239
268
0
244
0
176
58
175175 156
31
149120
144
0
134
74120108 111
0
9393 87
0
8350 65
14570
540
512
490
450
42421800
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
US
A
Nig
eri
a (
SP
DC
)
UK
Nig
eri
a (
SN
EP
CO
)
De
nm
ark
Ma
lay
sia
Ira
n
Om
an
No
rwa
y
Ru
ss
ia (
Sa
kh
alin
Ho
ldin
g)
Ne
the
rla
nd
s
Ru
ss
ia (
Re
st
of)
Bra
zil
Bru
ne
i
Eg
yp
t
Ph
ilip
pin
es
Ca
na
da
ST
EP
Sy
ria
Arg
en
tin
a
An
go
la
Ga
bo
n
Au
str
alia
(D
ire
ct)
Th
aila
nd
Ve
ne
zue
la
Ab
u D
ha
bi
Ce
ntr
al A
sia
CAPEX SPEND 2001 BY COUNTRY - Raw Data SubmissionU
S$
mln
MO
D
Total Capex request 2001 = $7.1 blnTotal Commitments = $ 2.7 bln
Top 5 countries requested 60% of total Capex
Next 10 countries requested 30% of total Capex
The tail = 10 %
Slide 32 of 37
26 June, 2000
RESERVES REPLACEMENT - RAW DATAProved Reserves Replacement Ratio
(BP-2000 raw data excl Canada & Woodside - SPDC to be updated)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
200%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
BP-1999adj
BP-2000
BP'00 Average 115%
BP'99 43%BP'99 adj 29%2000 LE 24%
101% Incl. AOSP56% excl. AOSP
BP'99 Average 101% --> adj 83% (SPDC & PDO)
Egypt DW, Gabon DW,
Angola, Central Asia, Russia, Argentina?, UK
OKIOC, USA, UK SNEPCO, Norway 17/18
OKIOC, Namibia, Norway 16/17
Malaysia, SPDC?, Norway 16/17, UK
A&D Data issueArgentina?Brutus
You need to believe that the “hopes” in Angolaand Brazil and new gas come off to replace reserves...
Woodside Effect
Slide 33 of 37
26 June, 2000
SFRcom Maturation to Expectation Reserves
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
BP-1999
CA-2000
LE
Actual
SFR MATURATION RATES - RAW DATA
Slide 34 of 37
26 June, 2000
Sab
le
Isla
nd
Slide 35 of 37
26 June, 2000
IBV raw data submission versus 1999
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
IBV
c M
ln U
S $
2000 Plan1999 Plan
- 5%- 1 %
1%
15%
21%23%
19991998
The promiseThe delivery
1999 & 2000 value creation is limited…….. • data assumes all planned 2000 FIDs are achieved ….unlikely based on LE• highly optimistic forward looking 2001 to 2005 (Nigeria assumed growth not likely…)• eg 2001 assumes we take roughly one big project FID per month (ranked in)….
Slide 36 of 37
26 June, 2000
EP-Global Committed Capex in 2001 by CA-Category.rep
3290
1057
1911
776
1095
459682
32293
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
EPN EPG EPM EPA EP
Total Capex MOD
Committed Capex (MOD)
US
$ m
ln M
OD
CAPEX REQUEST 2001 BY REGIONRaw data Submission
Total Capex request 2001 = $7.1 blnTotal Commitments = $2.7 bln
Slide 37 of 37
26 June, 2000
2664
566
1539
617
1530
762
974
615
371
520
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Oil Gas Nigeria Deepwater MRH
Total Capex MOD
Committed Capex (MOD)
EP-Global Committed Capex in 2001 by CA-Category.rep
US
$ m
ln M
OD
CAPEX REQUEST 2001 BY THEMERaw data Submission
Total Capex request 2001 = $7 blnTotal Commitments = $2.6 bln
Excluding: Woodside, Shell Canada
SNEPCO in Nigeria
Theme ($500 mln)
1552
Slide 38 of 37
26 June, 2000
Production per Region - Raw data.rep
2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
500
1000
1500
2000
'000
bo
e/d
'000
bb
ls/d
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
EPG
EPM
EPA
EPN
EPG
EPM
EPA
EPN
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION 2001-2005 BY REGIONRaw Data Submission
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mrd
Sm
3/yr
1999199819971996
19991996 1997 1998
GAS Gas grows 50 % - across the board
2000
OIL/NGLLiquids grow 50%- predominantly in Nigeria & Brazil
Slide 39 of 37
26 June, 2000
Production per Region - Raw data.rep
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Nigeria MRH Deepwater Gas Oil
GAS
'000 boe/d
'000 bbls/d
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Nigeria MRH Deepwater Gas Oil
OIL/NGL
OIL & GAS PRODUCTION 2001-2005 BY THEMERaw Data Submission Nigeria accounts for
most of the growth in liquids
Bonga
Slide 40 of 37
26 June, 2000
KEY METRICS - RAW DATA
INCapex 2001 IBV $14/bbl Boe/d 2001 Boe/d 2002 Boe/d 2003
DW 570 5758 396 464 423NIGERIA 1252 5091 262 299 514OIL 1317 13946 1727 1699 1635GAS 2327 15233 1149 1158 1212MRH 38 -363 43 44 41TOTAL 5504 39665 3577 3664 3825
OPTIONCapex 2001 IBV $14/bbl Boe/d 2001 Boe/d 2002 Boe/d 2003
DW 319 867 0 6 39NIGERIA 258 1005 0 21 23OIL 543 2021 28 167 236GAS 172 2152 15 26 53MRH 83 943 0 0 1TOTAL 1375 6988 43 220 352
MRH now includes Venezuela hence no value at $14Deepwater excludes SNEPCORanked out production in 2001 43,000 bbls/dDoes not reflect OUs outside EP control - (SOGU)
Value continues to be dominated by traditional OUs………...Nigeria dominance of production growth not reflected in value
Incorrect…!
Needs to be updated yet…..
Slide 41 of 37
26 June, 2000
SUMMARY
• Growth in production is a major challenge• Existing oil assets decline 50% by 2005 1,700- 800 kb/d• New project schedules & project forecasts need realism• Growth story dominated by Nigeria• Still Big 3 and small 15
• Reserves replacement is a key issue• Brazil, Angola, CIS - new hope and OKIOC
Given the bullishness of submissions….Need to calibrate to ensure BP’2000 does not under deliver.
Slide 42 of 37
26 June, 2000
Backups
Slide 43 of 37
26 June, 2000
EP / GP Linked Projects (FID < 3 years)Capex
Ranking
2001 OptionCapex($ mill)
Malaysia MLNG Tiga Base 24 3 GPAustralia NWS LNG Train 4 Option 4 6 GP
ALNG Train 1 Option - 5 GPChina Ordos / Changbei Option - Expex (in) EP
Russia Piltun-Lunskoye Option - Expex (in) EPEgypt NEMed SMDS Option - Expex (in) EPIran Iran SMDS Option 2 6 BothTurkmenistan T2T Pipeline to Turkey Option 18 3 EPSaudi Arabia Saudi Maturation Project Option - - EP
Nigeria NLNG 3 Base 501 misc EPNLNG 4 Option 45 misc EPWest Africa Gas Pipeline Base 6 3 EPAbuja Gas Pipeline Base 2 3 EP
Venezuela VLNG Option 7 6 GPNamibia Kudu Base - - EP
TOTAL (Base) 533TOTAL (Options) 76
45%
65%
CapexMatrixPos.
EP/GPLead
Current Capex Ranking Cut-Off is Box 3 @ 50%
Slide 44 of 37
26 June, 2000
EP/GP Integrated Economics
EP Ranking Integrated Ranking (incl NPV)Box Attractiveness Box Attractiveness
Australia NWS Train 4 6 41% 3 54%ALNG Train 1 5 55% 5 48%
Iran Iran SMDS 6 21% 6 41%
Turkmenistan T2T Pipeline to Turkey 3 54% 3 48%
Venezuela Venezuela LNG 6 34% 3 54%
Slide 45 of 37
26 June, 2000
KEY ISSUES - EP / GP Linked Projects
Malaysia MLNG TigaAustralia NWS LNG Train 4
ALNG Train 1ALNG Train 2NAGV Domgas & FLNG Gorgon SMDS
China Ordos / ChangbeiKuqa
Russia Sakhalin (Piltun-Lunskoye)Egypt NEMED SMDSIran Iran SMDSTurkmenistan T2T Pipeline to TurkeySaudi Arabia Saudi Gas Project
Nigeria NLNG 3NLNG 4West Africa Gas Pipeline
Venezuela VLNGNamibia Kudu
Country Project Name Upstream Capex
7….
….
…. ….….
….
….
….….
….
….….
….…. ….…. ….
Slide 46 of 37
26 June, 2000
7th June : Exploration Proto-Forum Discussion on expex ranking
26th JUNE - Position in CA 2000 Sequence
13th June : Expex/Capex Data Pack (early rankings/views) to RBAs for Consideration
19th June : Some Regions Holding RBAs & OUs Meeting (Improve data quality & identify implications of expex & capex ranking)
22-23th June : EXPEX Workshop 26th June : EXCOM Raw Data and Issues 27-28th June : CAPEX Workshop
(EP / SIG Alignment Meetings take place as required per region)
10th July : EXCOM Presentation on Expex, Devt Capex & with Early Financials
31st July : EXCOM Presentation on Final Expex & Capex
14th July : OU Investment level letters (Expex, Capex, etc)
11th Aug : OU Investment Confirmation (as per 2001 Scorecard Outlines)
Slide 47 of 37
26 June, 2000
Country Summary report Regional view .rep
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
1000
2000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Production Forecast per Region and CA Cat - Raw data.rep
KEY ISSUES - Decline of “Existing Asset” base
Capex mln ($ MOD)
Decline to by half in the plan period……and cost $0.8 bln/yr to maintain
Production (kbbl/d)
Existing Assets Existing Assets
Slide 48 of 37
26 June, 2000
Country Summary report Regional view .rep
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Production Forecast per Region and CA Cat - Raw data.rep
KEY ISSUES - Arresting the decline with post FID projects
Post FID projects do not arrest the decline……but cost a further $1.4 bln/yr …...
Capex mln ($ MOD)Production (kbbl/d)
Existing Assets Existing Assets
Post FID projects
Post FID projects
Slide 49 of 37
26 June, 2000
Country Summary report Regional view .rep
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
KEY ISSUES - Arresting the declineAdding tranche activity……cost a $0.8 bln/yr but does not halt the decline
Maintaining current production levels costs $5.1 bln in 2001 and av. of $3.0 bln over plan period
Existing Assets Existing Assets
Post FID projects
Post FID projects
TranchesTranches
Slide 50 of 37
26 June, 2000
Country Summary report Regional view .rep
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
KEY ISSUES Arresting the decline - the new promises
Existing Assets Existing Assets
Post FID projects
Post FID projects
Tranches
Tranches
New development
New development
E&A follow up
E&A follow up
Production (kboe/d) Devt Capex ($ mln)
OU Ceilings
Slide 51 of 37
26 June, 2000Country Summary report Regional view.rep
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
KEY ISSUES - Allowing further Funds for Existing OUs.
Existing Assets
Post FID projects
Tranches
Devt Capex ($ mln)
OU Ceilings
New development
E&A follow up
Short Term Oil projectsand new devts in existing OUs.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Oil Contribution
0
10
20
30
40
50
UTC = …..VIR avg = …..Time to prodn = …..
Slide 52 of 37
26 June, 2000
BIG TICKET ITEMS…Planned to take FID by end 2002/early 2003
Sakhalin deal & Gas devt I 150+
Possible People Resources ReqdCapex Requirements $ mln (till 2005)
Saudi Gas development 100+
Zapolynaroye 50+
South Pars 25+
Brazil 25+
Angola 25+
Egypt 25+
Bangestan 25+
China deals 25+(?)
Venezuela LNG (?)
MRH Entry Others …. 25+
Nigeria
Global DWBusiness Staffed up
25+
Possibly 500+ Staff required ……..
Sakhalin 40 % Gas devt I
Saudi Gas development
Zapolynaroye
South Pars
Bangestan
China deals
Venezuela LNG
MRH Others (Kuwait, Lybia )
Brazil - BC-10+
Angola - Blk -18
Egypt - NEMED (no dilute)
Nigeria -Ehra
MRH & CIS Business
1500
2400
550
370
670
1400
2000
740
600
7
600
900
Possibly requiring $11,000+ mln in plan period.
Slide 53 of 37
26 June, 2000
Shell Expro - Existing Assets capex
Existing Assets Capex $ mln MOD 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Brent Gas commitments 30 21 11 1
Gas Contract commitments 5 0 3 3
HSE & legal obligations 5 6 6 2
Minority shareholder obligations 2 1 1 1 0
Prime Scope Schiehallion 2 15
Infrastructure integrity 12 10 5 5 5
Production seismic & subsurface modelling 2 0 4 0
Economic improvement 11 3 4 2 2
Minor modifications 9 8 8 6 6
Capital overheads 5 3 3 3 3
Subject to portfolio management 61 3 2 2 1
Grand Total 144 70 42 28 17
Slide 54 of 37
26 June, 2000
BSP Capex Corporate & Existing Assets
Corporate AssetsPlan Common
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Period YearsIGPDS BP2001 4.6 4.0 0.6 0.1 1.4 10.8 9.4
Tariffed resources BP2001 5.9 5.5 4.4 3.7 1.4 20.8 19.5
Corporate services BP2001 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.6
Refinery BP2001 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5
Product flow Existing assetsPlan Common
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Period YearsSRU LAND BP2001 2.3 1.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 6.6 5.7
SRU EAST BP2001 3.4 4.5 2.8 0.9 0.9 12.6 11.7
SRU WEST BP2001 3.5 3.7 2.2 0.3 0.1 9.8 9.7
Mln US$ Shell Share, MODBP2001
Mln US$ Shell Share, MODBP2001
Slide 55 of 37
26 June, 2000
SRU Tariff Resources
Category Description 2001
Mln US$, SS
IT/Data Mgmt. DM H/W PURCHASE 0.10
IT/Data Mgmt. CORTRAN2 IMPLEMENTATION 0.26
IT/Data Mgmt. AIMS FACILITIES DATABASE PHASE 1 0.24
IT/Data Mgmt. FIC CENTRAL SERVICES 0.06
IT/Data Mgmt. EP Business Systems Strategy implementation 0.59
IT/Data Mgmt. DESKTOP SERVICE 0.07
IT/Data Mgmt. EPIDORIS II REPLACEMENT 0.03
IT/Data Mgmt. DMR FREQUENCY CHANGE 0.75
IT/Data Mgmt. TELECOM MISC PROJECTS 0.15
IT/Data Mgmt. DATACOMMS NETWORK 0.21
IT/Data Mgmt. LOGOS MIGRATION TO POWERBUILDER 0.08
IT/Data Mgmt. DM HARDWARE PURCHASE PHASE 2 0.07
2.60
The budget covers the application's (logistics planning/scheduling) migration to software that is supported( I.e. internally within the organisation or externally), existing software is obsolete and no longer supported.
Part of budget for annual upgrades to keep the DM Unix computing infrastructure fit for purpose; essential for continuation of subsurface modelling,data management and alignment with OM/XM systems.
Ongoing IT system replacement.
Driven by international telecommunication rules as enforced by ITU/JTB (Brunei telecom departments).
Project necessary to ensure continuity, reliability, availability and expension of Radio, Telephony communication Networks and infrastructure.
Project necessary to ensure continuity, reliability, availability and expension of Datacommunication & Telemetry Networks (LAN & WAN).
Project to develop database to capture integrity of assets/facilities. Provision in 2001 for populating the database using in-house resources.
Replacement of servers/equipment to maintain IT Infrastructure service.
Budget (project total US$ SS 8.8 mln) required to replace BSP's legacy of Group Common systems with an integrated solution based on the EP Blueprint. Most will be obsolete 2002/3 and Group/Vendor support will soon cease to exist, .
BSP have 20 servers to provide desktop services. These are planned to be replaced at the rate of five per year. The replacement of these servers is required to ensure that the quality of the service does not deteriorate.
Part of budget for annual upgrades to keep the DM Unix computing infrastructure fit for purpose; essential for continuation of subsurface modelling,data management and alignment with OM/XM systems.
Contract committed (40% VOWD in 2000) to replace/upgrade current application. Budget of 0.26 mln US$ SS in 2001 is required to complete the project.
Justification
CA Category : Corporate
Slide 56 of 37
26 June, 2000
Category Description 2001
Mln US$, SS
HSE Magpie Vent to Flare Conversions 0.12
HSE CP Natural Flow Implementation phase 2 0.59
HSE/ Production CP Natural Flow Implementation phase 1 0.74
Integrity Field Request Plant Change (FRPC) 0.26
Integrity Sand Detection 0.15
Integrity CPFB-7 Flare Upgrade 0.29
Integrity CP7 Fire Water System 0.29
Integrity / Production
CP-7 Elect Systems Rationalisation 0.38
Integrity / Production
Remote Outstations, Power and Communication 0.15
Integrity/HSE PIMS East 2000 -2002 0.36
Other Concept Design East 2000-2003 0.03
Production Well Test Metering Upgrade 0.07
3.4
Changeout of existing RTU's which are obsolete and not maintainable. Required for reservoir management and production optimisation
To allow intelligent pigging on critical pipeline.
In-house manpower and consultant related cost for conceptual design study.
Enable testing of East wells for reservoir management and system optimisation
Upgrade on the CP-7 Flare required as a result of the recent incident on CP 7
Upgrades and study work on CP-7 Fire water system which has leaks and blockages and may need pump replacements.
Modifications on CP-7 electrical systems - integrity and deferment related
To meet Group venting target
To meet Group venting target and oil production targets
Minor operational projects to eliminate shutdown and improve facility operability.
To prevent sand erosion failures and optimize production capacity.
SRU East CA Category : Existing Assets
Justification
To meet Group venting target
Slide 57 of 37
26 June, 2000
PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE FROM NEW PROJECTS IS DISAPPOINTING……...
POST FID ObaiyedCAPEX
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
mln
$ M
OD
1999
2000
OIL
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Pro
du
ctio
n (
x'00
0 b
bls
/d)
1999
2000
Gas
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
mrd
Sm
3/y
r
19992000
VALLE MORADO
CAPEX - VALLE MORADO
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Cap
ex (
mln
$ M
OD
)
1999
2000
OIL - VALLE MORADO
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
'00
0 b
bls
/d
1999
2000
GAS - VALLE MORADO
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
200020012002200320042005
mrd
Sm
3/y
r
1999
2000
Argentina
Egypt (…Rosetta same)
First slippage…then less hydrocarbonsforecast
+ 15 well InfillCampaign
Slide 58 of 37
26 June, 2000
PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE FROM NEW PROJECTS IS DISAPPOINTING……...
Brigantine Development
Brigantine Development
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2001 2003 2005
mln
$ M
OD
1999 Capex
2000 Capex
Brigantine Development
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
'00
0 b
bls
/d
1999 Oil
2000 Oil
Brigantine Development
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2000 2002 2004
mrd
Sm
3/y
r
1999 Gas
2000 Gas
42 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 342 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 3
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
mln
$ M
OD
1999 Capex
2000 Capex
42 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
'00
0 b
bls
/d
1999 Oil
2000 Oil
42 FORCADOS YOKRI - NLNG 3
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.1
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.2
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005m
rd S
m3
/yr
1999 Gas
2000 Gas
UK
Nigeria
Slide 59 of 37
26 June, 2000
MAJOR Post-FID PROJECTS ….CAPEX
Brutus - indications of capex rephasing… Onstream date unchanged
Bonga - indications of capex increase…… indications of slippage…… Onstream date unchanged
Shearwater - capex will be under budget & on time….
Brutus Capex
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1998 2000 2002 2004
Time (Years)
Dev
t C
ap
ex (
$ m
ln)
CA 1999CA 2000
Costs are expected to be lower...
Bonga Devt Capex
050
100150200250300350400450
2000 2002 2004 2006Time (Years)
Dev
t C
apex
($
mln
)
CA 1999CA 2000
- Increased drilling costs
- Increased project mgmt costs
AOSP - indications that capex 2001 is larger than planned due to slippage in schedule……..
Nowrooz/Sarooz - 2001 & 2002 capex slippage…… Onstream date unchanged
POST-FID 2000 - Underspend Likely 2001 - $400 mln additional
Slide 60 of 37
26 June, 2000
MAJOR Post-FID PROJECTS IN PROGRESS….PRODUCTIONBrutus - Peak production in 2002 & 2003 is now lower Not a barrel produced yet….. (Is this a meaningful signal …)
Bonga - Peak production in 2003 & 2004 is lower (system remodelling, revised subsea layouts & well timings)
Shearwater - Production unchanged , capex will be reduced vs budgets.
Brutus Oil Production
0102030405060708090100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Time (Years)
Oil
Pro
du
ctn
(kb
bl/
d)
CA 1999CA 2000
lower peak oil production but higher cum productionby ca 40 mln bbl by 2016
Bonga Oil Production
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Time (Years)
Pro
du
ctio
n (
kbb
l/d
)
CA 1999
CA 2000
5 - 7 % decline following further studies.
- revised subsea layouts &
well timings
POST-FID Production is lower across the board Cannot find examples of increases…..
Slide 61 of 37
26 June, 2000
“Big Ticket” Items Additional Capex vs BP ‘99D
ev
t C
ape
x (
$ m
ln)
Original FID TimingsRevised FID Timings
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
6062 5371 4962 4945 BP ‘99 CAPEX
Slide 62 of 37
26 June, 2000
Oil Production Difference Major Post FID Projects
1999 vs 2000 CA Raw Data Submission
-21% -12% -27%
+33%
+66%
+6%
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Years
Mb
op
d
OIL mbopd
CA 1999 CA 2000 Difference %2000 58 46 -12 -21%2001 132 116 -16 -12%2002 317 231 -86 -27%2003 430 456 26 6%2004 484 646 162 33%2005 432 715 283 66%