Space Tourism

And

Sustainability

Steven Fawkes

24th March 2009

Space Tourism and Sustainable Development

Sustainable development is a vital issue

Space tourism links to sustainable development on several levels

Space tourism can make a significant positive impact on global sustainability

Space tourism industry needs to acknowledge the links

Sustainable Development

development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs The Brundtland Commission 1987

MAJOR INTERCONNECTED ISSUES: • Population growth • Wealth distribution• Resources:

• Water • Energy• Minerals• Food

• Environment:• Atmosphere• Land• Sea

• Culture:• Excessive materialism• Disaffection – lack of purpose – lack of satisfaction• Move away from science and technology

Population Growth

2000: 6 billion

2050: 9 billion

Population Growth - Cities

2000: 3 billion

2030: 5 billion

Population Growth – Mega-Cities

2000: 14

2030: 22

Wealth Distribution

Energy - inequality

India Europe USA

Per capita energy use

Energy – oil dependence

6

Current energy trends are patently unsustainable – socially, environmentally, economically IEA

Saudi Arabias needed by 2030 to offset demand growth and production decline IEA

Mineral Resources

Providing today’s developed country level of services for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps, platinum) would appear to require conversion of essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that point forward.

R.B.Gordon, M. Bertram and T.E. GraedelYale University

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America23rd Jan 2006

Eco Footprints

USA

Malawi

UK

Brazil

China

India

Resources

The Environment – Air Pollution

premature deaths a year World Health Organisation

2 million

air pollution related deaths a year in China World Bank

170,000

The Environment – Climate Change

Pre-industrial: 280ppm

Now: 368ppm

2100: 540 – 970ppm

1.4oC – 5.8oC

Space Tourism and Sustainable Development

may seem incompatible but…links on several levels:

• operational

• cultural

• economic

• resources

• science

• survival

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations

Design of ground based facilities:

• energy

• resource use

• sustainable design and operation

• Design of vehicles:

• emissions (need holistic analysis)

• cradle to cradle “C2C” design

• Carbon offsets:

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations

FAILURE TO BUILD SUSTAINABILITY INTO ANY BUSINESS IS NOW A MAJOR BUSINESS RISK:

• Market perception risk

• Regulatory risk

• Social pressure risk (NGOs/public opinion)

BE CONSISTENT:

Failure to be consistent is a business risk

Space Tourism and Sustainability – Operations

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SPACE TOURISM ON CULTURE:

• environmental consciousness

• inspiration

• resurgence of science and engineering

• the frontier culture

• sense of purpose

• optimism

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

Did this photo kick-start the mass environmental movement?

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

Before I flew, I was already aware of how small and vulnerable our planet is; but only when I saw it from space, in all its ineffable beauty and fragility, did I realize that humankind's most urgent task is to cherish and preserve it for future generations.

Sigmund Jaehn, first German Cosmonaut

Nothing could have prepared me for the beauty of the view. It was breathtaking – watching the Earth from above without seeing borders, wars and divisions and realising how fragile the planet is. Every world leader should make the trip. They’d start to see things differently.

Anousheh Ansari, private space explorer

Perhaps the core message is that evolution and exploration are inseparable, that the curious intellect and the wondering spirit are the evolutionary process from inside. They are the hallmarks of humanity and the true propellants of spaceflight.

Wyn Wachorst

Man must explore and this is exploration at its greatest.Dave Scott, Apollo 15

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Economics

A NEW INDUSTRY:

What this country needs is a really good $500 billion technology - something to reignite popular enthusiasm and the economy.

R Samuelson, Washington Post

Space tourism revenue forecasts:

$100 billion/year by 2030

$1 trillion/year by 2060

Patrick Collins

Space tourism facts:

$1 billion committed investment in spaceports - 2006

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources

3554 Amun, a mile wide lump of iron, nickel, cobalt, platinum, and other metals that has an orbit closely resembling that of the Earth’s……….3554 Amun contains thirty times as much metal as has ever been mined by human beings in the history of Earth. It’s value, at current prices and if mined slowly to keep commodity prices level, is estimated to be 20 trillion dollars.

John S. Lewis

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Energy

Dispatchable Generation Capacity (GW)

2006 2100

USA 1,076 1,754

World 4,000 17,543

Is SPS part of the solution?

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Energy

Lunar helium–3 for fusion power

Estimated value:

$140 million/100 kgBut one assumption that I know will be justified is that the Moon, the near-Earth asteroids, and the rest of the solar system contain the resources that will take mankind to the next level of civilization and prosperity. Mike Griffin, former NASA Administrator

Low cost access to space = more “bang for the buck” in:

• Earth observation

• Space environment

• Astronomy

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Science

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival

“20 ways the world could end” include:

Pandemic

Nuclear war

Gamma ray burst

Asteroid impact

Mega tsunami

Super volcanoes

Catastrophic climate change etc etc

If we were up there among the planets, if there were self-sufficient human communities on many worlds, our species would be insulated from catastrophe.

Carl Sagan

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival

The long-term survival of the human race is at risk as long as it is confined to a single planet……Sooner or later, disasters such as an asteroid collision or nuclear war could wipe us all out. But once we spread out into space and establish independent colonies, our future should be safe.

Stephen Hawking

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival

The real space race is between spaceflight and extinction

J. Richard Gott

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions

Space Tourism is coming soon

Sustainable Development reflects real problems

Space Tourism is linked to Sustainable Development through:

• operations

• culture

• economics

• resources

• science

• survival

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions

Space Tourism seen as in opposition to Sustainable Development

Space Tourism needs to mitigate business risks by designing sustainability into operations and systems

Sustainable Development is more than just a “compliance issue” for Space Tourism

Space Tourism can have a material positive effect on sustainability on several levels:

• Cultural

• Economic

• Resources

• Science

• Survival

Space Tourism needs to make these connections

We need Space Tourism (= low cost access to space) sooner rather than later

Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions

We need both!

Steven Fawkes

2009

stevenfawkes@aol.com

Space Tourism and Sustainability