Post on 27-Mar-2015
transcript
Spatial Distributionof
Tropical Cyclone-Induced Precipitation:
Operational Applications in South Carolina
Jason CaldwellSouth Carolina State Climatology Office
PAMS Mini-Technical ConferenceMarch 11, 2005
Atlantic Ocean
Gulf of Mexico
Appalachian Mountains
Geographical Influences on Tropical Precipitation
UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT
MOISTURE SOURCE
MOISTURE SOURCE
TROPICAL STORM STEERING MECHANISMS
SURFACE:
Central Atlantic Sub-Tropical HighExtends E-W with weakness SE US
500 MB:
Westerly Flow East Coast
Mid-Level Ridge over Central Atlantic
250 MB:
Trough over Midwest and Great Lakes
SOUTH CAROLINA TROPICAL STORMS
CLIMATOLOGICAL RECORD (1871-2004)
TOTAL STORMS: 145
PERIOD CONSIDERED: 1950-2003
TOTAL 1950-2003: 70 STORMS
SELECTED TOTAL: 54 STORMS
SELECTED TROPICAL STORM TRACKS AFFECTING SOUTH CAROLINA
1950-2003
Division 1Division 2Division 3Division 4Division 5Division 6Division 7Division 8
COOPSite County Lat LonAiken Aiken 33.61 -81.69
Anderson Anderson 34.53 -82.67Beaufort Beaufort 32.4 -80.7
Blackville Barnwell 33.36 -81.33CalhounFalls Abbeville 34.09 -82.59
Camden Kershaw 34.25 -80.65Chappells Newberry 34.21 -81.89Charleston Charleston 32.9 -80.04
Cheraw Chesterfield 34.7 -79.88Chester Chester 34.72 -81.22
Columbia Lexington 33.95 -81.12Conway Horry 33.83 -79.06Florence Florence 34.19 -79.73FortMill York 35.02 -81.01Gaffney Cherokee 35.09 -81.58
Georgetown Georgetown 33.36 -79.22Kingstree Williamsburg 33.65 -79.82
Orangeburg Orangeburg 33.49 -80.87Walhalla Oconee 34.75 -83.08
Walterboro Colleton 32.88 -80.68
SITE SELECTION
• 20 DAILY SITES
• SPACING: 50-75 km
DIVISION 1Offshore Track
Helene 1958 Ginny 1963 Amy 1975 Arthur 1996
4 STORMS
DIVISION 2East Florida LandfallSouth Carolina Track
Cleo 1964 Dora 1964 Dawn 1972 ST 3 1976 David 1979 Isidore 1984 Chris 1988 Jerry 1995 Kyle 2002
9 STORMS
DIVISION 3West Florida Landfall
Offshore Track
Donna 1960 Gladys 1968 Dennis 1981 Ana 1991 Irene 1999
5 STORMS
DIVISION 4Panhandle Florida Landfall
Inland/Coastal Track
TS 7 1953 Florence 1953 Flossy 1956 TS 1 1957 Brenda 1960 Alma 1966 Alma 1970 Agnes 1972 Kate 1985 Allison 1995 Josephine 1996 Earl 1998 Gordon 2000
13 STORMS
DIVISION 5Gulf Coast/Panhandle LandfallTrack East of Appalachians
Hilda 1964 TS 1 1965 Babe 1977 Marco 1990 Helene 2000
5 STORMS
DIVISION 6Gulf Coast/Panhandle LandfallTrack West of Appalachians
Danny 1985 Andrew 1992 Alberto 1994 Beryl 1994
4 STORMS
DIVISION 7Direct Landfall South Carolina
Able 1952 TS 3 1953 Hazel 1954 Cindy 1959 Gracie 1959 Hugo 1989
6 STORMS
DIVISION 8Direct Landfall North Carolina
Connie 1955 Diane 1955 Ione 1955 TS 6 1961 Diana 1984 Bertha 1996 Bonnie 1998 Floyd 1999
8 STORMS
Division 4 MeanObserved Precipitation
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE
* Used Panhandle/Inland-Coast Track (Division 4)
HURRICANE CHARLEY
* Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7)
Observed Precipitation Division 7 Mean
Observed Precipitation Division 6 Mean
HURRICANE FRANCES
* Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6)
Observed Precipitation Division 7 Mean
HURRICANE GASTON
* Used Direct Landfall SC Track (Division 7)
Observed Precipitation Division 6 Mean
HURRICANE IVAN
* Used Gulf Coast/W of Appalachian Track (Division 6)
Observed Precipitation Division 2 Mean
HURRICANE JEANNE
* E Florida/SC Track (Division 2)
BONNIE
GASTON
FRANCES
JEANNEIVAN
CHARLEY
ERRORS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATOLOGYObserved – Climatology = ERRORS
RANGE-4.60 (over-predicted) to +7.10 (under-predicted)
AVERAGE ERROR 2004-2.11 (Camden) to +0.56 (Calhoun Falls)
CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORK------------------------------------------
UNDER-PREDICTS PRECIPITATION IN UPSTATE FAVORED UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS & ALONG TRACK; OVER PREDICTION MORE SPORADIC
ADDITIONAL STATIONS ADDED TO ACQUIRE MORE COMPLETE DISTRIBUTION (REMOVE WALTERBORO, CAMDEN)
COMPARISON OF CLIMATOLOGY TO HPC FORECASTS
PREPARATION OF MAX/MIN DISTRIBUTIONS FOR FLOOD FORECAST ENHANCEMENT
POTENTIAL WORK WITH SERFC
STATISTICS, STATISTICS, STATISTICS ……
15th CONFERENCE ON APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY (SAVANNAH, GA – JUNE 2005)