Post on 14-Dec-2015
transcript
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Sponsored by
Dr. Douw BoshoffUniversity of Pretoria, Department of Construction Economics
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Sponsored byKey findings of this study include
Non-residential real estate contributed approximately R174 billion to economic activity, or
5.15% of all economic activity in South Africa during 2013
The contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) in 2013 by non-residential real estate is
approximately R81 billion, or 2.4% of the total GDP in South Africa.
Non-residential real estate supports approximately 212 000 permanent jobs in South
Africa, or 1.5% of all employment in the country as at the end of 2013.
There was a total of approximately R6.5 billion in taxes generated by non-residential real
estate during 2013.
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Rent Asset valuation P = R/ i
Price (R)
2
1
Market for space D(R, Econ.) = S
Stock (sq m)
Construction sector P = f(C)
3
4
Stock adjustment
S = C/d
Construction (m2)
Figure 1: Diagrammatic FDW-model
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Economic Activity – sum of activity in each sector
Gross Domestic Product – value added by each sector
Job creation
Taxes on products and production
Direct, Indirect and Induced Impact
Economic impact – Not physical impact
Emphasis of the study
THE ECONOMIC IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
National non-residential real estate
Provincial analysis
Property type analysis
Current and historical impact
Short term forecasting
Emphasis of the study
CURRENT IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Non-residential as % of total Buildings completed as % of national
CURRENT IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Economic Activity
Office and banking space – R41.5 Billion
Shopping space – R38.5 Billion
Industrial and warehouse space - R43 Billion
Other non-residential – R11 Billion
Additions and alterations – R40 Billion
CURRENT IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Gross Domestic Product
Office and banking space – R19.3 Billion
Shopping space – R18 Billion
Industrial and warehouse space – R20 Billion
Other non-residential – R5.2 Billion
Additions and alterations – R18.6 Billion
CURRENT IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Employment created
Informal – 42 960
Semi- & unskilled – 38 341
Skilled – 98 520
Highly skilled – 32 449
Formal – 169 311
Total – 212 270
CURRENT IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Net Taxes generated
Office and banking space – R1.55 Billion
Shopping space – R1.44 Billion
Industrial and warehouse space – R1.6 Billion
Other non-residential – R413 Million
Additions and alterations – R1.49 Billion
SHORT TERM FORECASTED IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Economic Activity and GDP
Economic activity - R7.8 Billion additional activity
GDP – R3.67 Billion additional contribution
SHORT TERM FORECASTED IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Additional jobs to be created
13 065 additional jobs to be created
SHORT TERM FORECASTED IMPACT of the COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE SECTOR on the SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY
Nett taxes to be generated
R20.8 Million in Nett taxes to be generated