Post on 21-Dec-2015
transcript
Sponsors:
University of Minnesota Extension Service
MN Soybean Research & Promotion Council
College of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Sciences
Center for Farm Financial Management
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Explore the Key Elements of a Pre-Harvest Marketing Plan
Develop your own Marketing Plan Use your Plan in a Simulation Game
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
What is a Marketing Plan?
A marketing plan is a proactive strategy to price your grain that considers your financial goals, cash flow needs, price objectives, storage capacity, crop insurance coverage, anticipated production, and appetite for risk
Proactive, not reactive, not overactive
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Marketing is Important!
Iowa State University studies show that since 1998 the average Iowa farm has earned 20-30 cents/bushel (including gov’t payments).
Marketing strategies that increase the net price received by just 10 cents per bushel could increase net income by 33-50%!!
We get there by eliminating mistakes!
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Why do I need a Marketing Plan?
Fear and greed are powerful emotions - they will affect your decisions. A solid plan is the only effective weapon against these emotions “Plan your trades, trade your plan”
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 70% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash price ($2.50 Dec. futures) using fixed-price tool
(forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract).Price 10,000 bushels at $2.12, or by Mar.18, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24, or by April 16, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36, or by April 30, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48, or by May 16, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60, or by May 30, consider options or a trend system.
Plan starts on November 1, 2002. Earlier sales will be made at a 15 cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.00 local cash price/$2.50 December futures.Exit all options positions by mid-September.
(1) Pricing targets
(2) Decision dates
(3) Trump cards
(4) Baseline prices
Key Elements of a Pre-Harvest Marketing
Plan
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 70% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash price ($2.50 Dec. futures) using fixed-price tool
(forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract).Price 10,000 bushels at $2.12, or by Mar.18, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24, or by April 16, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36, or by April 30, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48, or by May 16, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60, or by May 30, consider options or a trend system.
Plan starts on November 1, 2002. Earlier sales will be made at a 15 cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.00 local cash price/$2.50 December futures.Exit all options positions by mid-September.
(1) Pricing targets
Key Elements of a Pre-Harvest Marketing
Plan
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Pricing Targets
Choose your minimum price threshold• Loan rate• Cost of production (pre-harvest only)
– See appendix for detailed costs of production in Minnesota
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Pricing Targets
Choose your price steps• This plan starts at $2.50 Dec corn and
works up to $3.10 Dec– But how often does Dec corn exceed
$3.00?
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 70% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash price ($2.50 Dec. futures) using fixed-price tool
(forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract).Price 10,000 bushels at $2.12, or by Mar.18, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24, or by April 16, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36, or by April 30, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48, or by May 16, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60, or by May 30, consider options or a trend system.
Plan starts on November 1, 2002. Earlier sales will be made at a 15 cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.00 local cash price/$2.50 December futures.Exit all options positions by mid-September.
(2) Decision dates
Key Elements of a Pre-Harvest Marketing
Plan
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Decision Dates
Decision dates are needed to make it a real plan for action
Crop insurance and/or options allow us to forward price with confidence
What’s so special about the March to May period in pre-harvest pricing?
How do they work? If I reach a decision date before my pricing target is met, I will price the grain (if prices are above my minimum pricing threshold).
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Decision DatesYear 1-
May1-
OctCORN
Change
1980 2.95 3.49 0.54
1981 3.77 2.87 (0.90)
1982 2.93 2.20 (0.73)
1983 3.03 3.53 0.50
1984 3.04 2.78 (0.26)
1985 2.64 2.26 (0.39)
1986 2.04 1.77 (0.27)
1987 1.87 1.84 (0.03)
1988 2.27 2.95 0.68
1989 2.64 2.39 (0.26)
1990 2.70 2.29 (0.42)
1991 2.53 2.54 0.01
1992 2.53 2.12 (0.41)
1993 2.43 2.43 0.00
1994 2.58 2.14 (0.44)
1995 2.63 3.11 0.48
1996 3.33 2.90 (0.44)
1997 2.76 2.56 (0.20)
1998 2.62 2.05 (0.58)
1999 2.31 2.05 (0.26)
2000 2.62 1.99 (0.63)
2001 2.27 2.11 (0.16)
2002 2.20 2.56 0.36
Ave. 2.64 2.47 (0.16)
Corn, 1980-2002
16 years (70%) the market declined, an average of 37 cents/bu.
7 years (30%) the market improved, an average of 43 cents/bu.
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Decision DatesDecember Corn Futures, 1980-2000 average
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Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Decision DatesDecember Corn Futures, 1980-2000 average
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Don’t forget to sell something!
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Decision DatesDecember Corn Futures, 1980-2000 average
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ct
1-N
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1-D
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This “June rally” is deceptive, and a result of 1988 alone!
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Pricing ToolsI understand the opportunity in pre-harvest pricing, but which pricing tool
should I use?
Fixed-price tools• Forward contract• Sell futures• Futures fixed (HTA)
Minimum-price tools• Forward contract and buy a call option• Buy a put option• Minimum price tool offered by local elevator (?)
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 70% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash price ($2.50 Dec. futures) using fixed-price tool
(forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract).Price 10,000 bushels at $2.12, or by Mar.18, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24, or by April 16, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36, or by April 30, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48, or by May 16, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60, or by May 30, consider options or a trend system.
Plan starts on November 1, 2002. Earlier sales will be made at a 15 cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.00 local cash price/$2.50 December futures.Exit all options positions by mid-September.
(3) Trump cards
Key Elements of a Pre-Harvest Marketing
Plan
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
The #1 reason people avoid marketing plans…• “As soon as I sell, the price will go up!”
Use a “trump card” – some form of a trend following tool - to follow a price rally up then sell when trend turns back down
Trump Cards
A disciplined but flexible way to change your plan!
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
OptionsTechnical trading toolsConsider a simple moving average
as a proxy for your favorite technical tool• Track two moving averages (e.g., 7
and 10 day)• “Crossover” signals buy or sell• See appendix for more information
Trump Cards
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Trump Cards – Moving Averages
CBOT December 1988 Corn Futures, 11/25/87 - 7/20/88
$1.80
$2.00
$2.20
$2.40
$2.60
$2.80
$3.00
$3.20
$3.40
$3.60
$3.80
Dec'88 Corn Futures
7 Day Average
10 Day Average
Crossover to uptrend signaled
Sell!
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Trump Cards
Save trump cards (options and/or technical tools) for the later stages of the plan • Lowers the cost (i.e. the time value) of
options• Spring and summer months are more
likely periods for trends (avoid quick “in and out” signals from technical tools)
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Before we play the game, you need to make your plan!
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have ___% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price ______ bushels at $______ cash price ($_______ Dec. futures) using ___________.
Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________.
Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________.
Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________. Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________.
Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________.
Plan starts on __________________. Earlier sales will be made at a _________ cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $_________ local cash price/$_________ December futures.
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 70% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash price ($2.50 Dec. futures) using fixed-price tool (forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract).
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.12, or by Mar.18, using some form of fixed-price tool.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24, or by April 16, using some form of fixed-price tool.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36, or by April 30, consider options or a trend system.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48, or by May 16, consider options or a trend system.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60, or by May 30, consider options or a trend system.
Plan starts on November 1, 2002. Earlier sales will be made at a 15 cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.00 local cash price/$2.50 December futures.Exit all options positions by mid-September.
50% is plenty!
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 70% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash price ($2.50 Dec. futures) using fixed-price tool (forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract).
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.12, or by Mar.18, using some form of fixed-price tool.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24, or by April 16, using some form of fixed-price tool.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36, or by April 30, consider options or a trend system.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48, or by May 16, consider options or a trend system.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60, or by May 30, consider options or a trend system.
Plan starts on November 1, 2002. Earlier sales will be made at a 15 cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.00 local cash price/$2.50 December futures.Exit all options positions by mid-September.
I want different price objectives!
and a higher minimum!
$2.10
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 70% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash price ($2.50 Dec. futures) using fixed-price tool (forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract).
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.12, or by Mar.18, using some form of fixed-price tool.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24, or by April 16, using some form of fixed-price tool.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36, or by April 30, consider options or a trend system.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48, or by May 16, consider options or a trend system.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60, or by May 30, consider options or a trend system.
Plan starts on November 1, 2002. Earlier sales will be made at a 15 cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.00 local cash price/$2.50 December futures.Exit all options positions by mid-September.
I want different dates!
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 70% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash price ($2.50 Dec. futures) using fixed-price tool (forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract).
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.12, or by Mar.18, using some form of fixed-price tool.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24, or by April 16, using some form of fixed-price tool.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36, or by April 30, consider options or a trend system.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48, or by May 16, consider options or a trend system.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60, or by May 30, consider options or a trend system.
Plan starts on November 1, 2002. Earlier sales will be made at a 15 cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.00 local cash price/$2.50 December futures.Exit all options positions by mid-September.
Too many decisions!
20,000
20,000
20,000
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
The Game RulesProduction is 84,000 bushelsStarts first of JanuaryEnds first of October
• All open positions liquidated on that day
• Any unsold bushels will be priced at harvest, no post-harvest sales
If you use a trump card, you must use some fixed-price tool when sell signal occurs
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Now get ready for the game by writing your own marketing
plan!
Think of your own operation, but use 84,000 bushels for total expected production
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Before we play the game, you need to make your plan!
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have ___% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price ______ bushels at $______ cash price ($_______ Dec. futures) using ___________.
Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________.
Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________.
Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________. Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________.
Price ______ bushels at $______, or by _______, using __________________________.
Plan starts on __________________. Earlier sales will be made at a _________ cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $_________ local cash price/$_________ December futures.
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Game Wrap-Up
How did you do?How did your neighbor do? Is this a better way to market your
grain?
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Objective: Buy crop insurance to protect my production risk, and have 70% of my insured (APH) corn crop priced by late May.
Price 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash price ($2.50 Dec. futures) using fixed-price tool
(forward contract/futures hedge/futures fixed contract).Price 10,000 bushels at $2.12, or by Mar.18, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24, or by April 16, using some form of fixed-price tool.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36, or by April 30, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48, or by May 16, consider options or a trend system.Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60, or by May 30, consider options or a trend system.
Plan starts on November 1, 2002. Earlier sales will be made at a 15 cent premium to price targets noted above.Ignore decision dates and make no sale if prices are lower than $2.00 local cash price/$2.50 December futures.Exit all options positions by mid-September.
(4) Baseline prices
Key Elements of a Pre-Harvest Marketing
Plan
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Baseline PricesHow do you know if you’re a star?
• A “baseline price” is a benchmark for comparison
Homework: Track the average price over the marketing life of a crop• Get to know your local market!
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Baseline Prices
Jan-Oct 2002 will be the new crop price
Nov-Jun 2003 will be the spot price
Use the loan rate when prices are below loan
Same day each month (2nd Friday, etc.)
Month Corn Soybeans
Jan 2002 2.38 -.55 = $1.83/$1.84
4.51 -.65 = $3.86/$4.86
Feb 2.35 -.55 = $1.80/$1.84
4.52 -.65 = $3.87/$4.86
Mar 2.28 -.55 = $1.73/$1.84
4.71 -.65 = $4.06/$4.86
Apr 2.21 -.55 = $1.66/$1.84
4.53 -.65 = $3.88/$4.86
May 2.21 -.55 = $1.66/$1.84
4.63 -.65 = $3.98/$4.86
Jun 2.23 -.55 = $1.68/$1.84
4.70 -.65 = $4.05/$4.86
Jul 2.32 -.55 = $1.77/$1.84
5.21 -.65 = $4.56/$4.86
Aug 2.61 -.45 = $2.16 5.25 -.45 = $4.80/$4.86
Sep $2.47 $5.22
Oct $2.15 $4.86
Nov $2.12 $5.20
Dec $2.10 $5.34
Jan 2003 $2.08 $5.27
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Average $1.99 thru Jan $4.97 thru Jan
My Average
$2.22 $5.15 (60%)
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Baseline PricesBecause the baseline price is an
average over several months, it is hard to beat
Even many professional marketing advisors have difficulty doing better• AgMAS is an ongoing study at the
University of Illinois
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
How does the marketing plan presented here compare to other approaches?
What gives you the best average price over several years?
Compared three different marketing plans using actual prices from 1990-2001
Pre-Harvest Marketing Plan Study
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
PLAN #1: The Basic Pre-Harvest Corn Plan$2.50 futures minimum, November 1 start, forward contract onlyPrice 10,000 bushels at $2.00 cash/$2.50 Dec. futuresPrice 10,000 bushels at $2.12 cash/$2.62 Dec. futures, or by March 30Price 10,000 bushels at $2.24 cash/$2.74 Dec. futures, or by April 15Price 10,000 bushels at $2.36 cash /$2.86 Dec. futures, or by April 30Price 10,000 bushels at $2.48 cash /$2.98 Dec. futures, or by May 15Price 10,000 bushels at $2.60 cash /$3.10 Dec. futures, or by May 31 Remaining 24,000 bushels priced at October 10 harvest price PLAN #2: Use of OptionsSame as Plan #1, plus purchase call options against final three sales, exit all options positions by mid-September PLAN #3: Harvest Sales benchmark
No pre-harvest marketing, take harvest price on October 10
Pre-Harvest Marketing Plan Study
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Year PLAN 1 PLAN 2 PLAN 3
1990 $2.06 $2.00 $1.86
1991 $2.04 $2.03 $2.00
1992 $1.97 $1.91 $1.58
1993 $2.01 $2.01 $1.92
1994 $1.96 $1.89 $1.64
1995 $2.28 $2.36 $2.68
1996 $2.40 $2.37 $2.40
1997 $2.27 $2.25 $2.38
1998 $2.14 $2.07 $1.72
1999 $1.62 $1.62 $1.49
2000 $1.84 $1.79 $1.54
2001 $1.74 $1.74 $1.64
AVERAGE $2.03 $2.00 $1.90
VARIANCE $0.05 $0.06 $0.15
best? 10 / 12 yrs 3 / 12 yrs 3 / 12 yrs
LDP’s and other gov’t payments were not considered!
Pre-Harvest Marketing Plan Study(Corn)
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Winning the Game Launch Your 2003 Marketing Plan
Summary A plan is discipline - plan your trades, then trade your
plan A plan is proactive, not reactive, and not overactive Pre-harvest marketing is very important – history
supports it and you have upside price potential in a lower market
Crop insurance is confidence Set pricing targets and decision dates, track your
baseline price The use of options and technical trading tools (trump
cards) offers flexibility with discipline. Use selectively!
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Teams of Regional Extension Educators conducted 30 workshops in MN
Evaluations have not been summarized
Also sending surveys to the sponsors
Evaluation 2001-02
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Sponsor ModelSponsor responsiblities:
• Provide the location/facilities• Provide eats and treats• Promote the workshop locally• Pay the University $600
University responsiblities:• Provide promotion materials to sponsor• Present the workshop• Provide the participant materials
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Sponsor Model -- AdvantagesReduced transaction costs on incomeLocal presence for promotion,
advertising & partnershipEliminates local meeting
arrangementsLower financial risk with low turn outCover direct program costs – travel,
printing, etc.Pressure on presenters to deliver
quality program
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Sponsor Model – Requirements for SuccessRequires a quality program – name
recognition helpsAggressive promotion to potential
sponsorsProvide sponsors with promotional
toolsMake sure sponsors understand
their responsibilityAssist with statewide promotion
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Sponsor Model – Challenges
Private vs. public meetingsLogistics of sponsor care –
promotion, billing, follow-up
Copyright © 2003 Center for Farm Financial Management, University of Minnesota. All Rights Reserved.
Focus on strategy – not outlookChallenging gameWell packaged turn-key programBroad support from commodity
organizationsGood teaching teams
Reasons for Success