Stakeholder Profile 1: Canadian Council of Forestry Ministers OverviewCanadaisaforestnation,withforestscoveringmorethan50percentofthecountry’slandmass.Large-scaledisturbances,suchasfireandpestoutbreaks,affect5percentoftheforestedareaannually.Climatedeterminesforestdistribution(location),composition(typeoftrees),productivity(theamountoftimberandwoodfibre),dynamics(interactions)anddisturbances.Assuch,climatechangeisprojectedtohavefar-reachingconsequencesforCanada’sforestsector.

Inadditiontothedirecteconomicbenefitsfromtheharvestoftimberandfibre,forestsproviderecreationalandculturalvalue,aswellasnon-timberforestproductssuchasmushroomsandberries.Ecosystemservicesprovidedbyforests,suchascleanairandwater,carbonstorage,andsoilnutrients,alsohavesocialandeconomicvalue,althoughthisisdifficulttoquantify.

ClimatechangepresentschallengestoCanada’sforestmanagers.Decisionsmadetodaywillimpacttheforestformorethan100years,giventhelonggenerationtimesoftrees.Treescancopewithacertainamountofchangeintheirenvironmentthroughphysiologicalorgeneticadaptation;buttherateoffutureclimatechangeislikelytoexceedtheabilityofforeststoadaptenoughtomaintainthelevelofgoodsandservicestheynowprovide.TheCanadianforestindustryhasbeenfacingsignificanteconomicchallenges,resultinginlostjobs,millclosures,andageneraldownturnintheforestsector.Effectiveadaptationmustaddressallofthesedriversofchangeintheforestsector.

ImpactsofclimatechangeDuetotheirnorthernlocation,Canada’sforestsareexposedtogreaterincreasesintemperaturethantheglobalaverage.Theseimpactsaremoresignificantinsomepartsofthecountrythanothers.Pastassessmentssuggestthesekeyfindings:

• Increasesindisturbances(e.g.,forestfires,pestanddiseaseoutbreaks)arealreadyevidentandwillbecomemorepronouncedinfuture.

• Forestcomposition(typesoftrees)willchangeduetochangingdisturbancesandchangingclimate.

• Accesstoforestswillbeimpactedbythesedisturbances,shiftinginfrastructurecosts,andshorterwinterharvestingseasons(duetoreducedperiodsoffrozenground).

• Forest-basedcommunitiesinsomeregionswillfacesignificantsocialandeconomicimpacts(e.g.,safetyandsecuritycosts,forestsectorjobs,andtourismmaybeaffected).Forestfiresthreatenhumanhealth,safety,andsecurity.The2011fireinSlaveLake,Alberta,resultedinanestimated$742millionininsuranceclaims.Therewillbeextracostsforprotectionandcommunityevacuations.

• Forestsprovideimportantecologicalservicessuchaswaterconservationandpurification,habitatforbiodiversity,andcarbonstorage.Treedeathduetodrought,infestation,andfirewillreducecarbonstoragecapability;andwillresultinasignificantreleaseofcarbonintotheatmosphere.(By2020,treeskilledbythemountainpinebeetleinWesternCanadawillhavereleasednearlyonebilliontonnesofcarbondioxideintotheatmosphere—roughlyequivalenttofiveyearsofemissionsfromCanada’stransportationsector.)

Possibleoutcomes

• Forestproductivitycouldincreasewithwarmertemperatures,longergrowingseasons,andincreasingcarbondioxidelevelswhenotherfactorssuchassoil,water,ornutrientsarenotanissue.

• Productivitywillbenegativelyimpactedbyincreaseddroughtandmorefrequentandseveredisturbancesandextremeweatherevents.

Existingresearch

Manypapersandreportsexploreoptionsforforestsectoradaptation,andthereareseveralexamplesofspecificmeasuresbeingimplemented.Researchneeds

• Abetterunderstandingofforestsectorvulnerabilitiesisneededtohelpfutureworkonadaptation.Ingeneral,theconceptofadaptationisnotyetwellunderstood.

• Integrationofon-the-groundmeasurementswithremotesensingdata(satellites)greatlyincreasesCanada’sabilitytomonitorforestchangesandwhethertheyaredirectlyrelatedtoclimatechange.

• Sharingdataacrossdisciplines(biology,physics,geology,meteorology,etc.)willalsohelpbuildabigpictureofthevulnerabilitiesweface.

• Significantuncertaintyremainsabout:o futureclimateconditions,o themultiple,interactingimpactsofclimatechangeoncomplexforestecosystems,ando forestresponsetothosechanges.

• ScientificunderstandingofpastandfutureclimatechangeimpactsonCanada’sforestshasincreasedsubstantivelyoverthepastdecade,butthisinformationisnotalwaysavailable,accessible,and/orapplicabletoprospectiveend-users.Infact,someintheCanadianforestryindustryhaveidentifiedalackofknowledgeaboutprospectiveadaptationoptionsasabarriertoaction.

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Forestry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.70.

Mapofmountainpinebeetledistribution,showingchangeoverthe2002–06(orange)and2007–11(red)periods.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.72.

Stakeholder Profile 2: Canadian Hydropower Association OverviewCanadaistheworld’sthird-largestproducerofhydroelectricity.Hydroelectricityaccountsfor59percentofCanada’selectricitygeneration(StatisticsCanada,2013).IntheprovincesofQuebec,BritishColumbia,Manitoba,andNewfoundlandandLabrador,morethan90percentofelectricityproductioncomesfromhydro.Ontario,Alberta,andNewBrunswickalsoproducesignificantquantitiesofhydroelectricity,whiletheYukonandNorthwestTerritoriesrelyonhydrotohelpmeetlocalenergydemand.ThemajorityofCanada’shydroproductioncomesfromlargereservoirsystems.Somecapacityisprovidedbysmallrunoff-riverpowerstations.Transboundaryelectricitymarkets,bothinter-provincialandtheUSmarket,arelarge.Becausehydropowerisabundanthere,Canadaisabletosupportindustriesthatarebigenergyconsumers,likealuminumsmelters.Climatechangeimpactshydroelectricityproductionbymakingtheamountofwateravailablemoredifficulttopredictandcontrol.ImpactsofclimatechangeInCanada,climatechangemeanslessdemandforheatingduringthewinterandmoredemandforairconditioningduringthesummer.Adaptingtoclimate-relatedchangesinenergydemandandsupplyisachallengefortheenergysectoracrossCanada,wherethemainsourceofheatingisnaturalgasandoil,andthemainsourceofcoolingiselectricity.Specificvulnerabilitiesdependongeographicsetting,primaryenergysources,andprojectedchangesinclimate.

• Peaksummerdemandforcoolingmaycoincidewithdecreasedhydroelectricpotentialinsomeareas,resultinginshortsupply.

• Hydroelectricitygenerationmaybeaffectedbyseasonalreductionsinwatersupply,particularlyinglacier-fedsystems.Suchchangesintimingofflowandpeakeventswilllikelyrequireadjustmentsinreservoirmanagementpractices.

• Transmissionofelectricityissensitivetoweather:highertemperaturemeansgreaterenergylosses;andextremeweathercancauseinfrastructuredamage,leadingtodistributionproblems.

Possibleoutcomes• Changesinthedistributionoftheflowthroughouttheyearcouldpresentstructuralproblems

withdamsandreservoirsandresultinfloods.

• Improvementintheefficiencyofappliancesandequipmentcouldreducethedemandforelectricity.

• Warmersummerscouldincreasetheuseofairconditioningunits.

• CanadamayhavetheopportunitytoexportmoreelectricitytotheUSinthesummer,butthiswouldhavetobeweighedagainstthehigherdomesticdemand.

ExistingresearchIntheenergysector,climatechangeandhydroelectricityhavereceivedalotofattentionfromindustryandresearchers.

• MostCanadianresearchhasfocusedonthehydrologicalconsequencesofachangingclimate,suchasshiftinthetimingandamountofriverflows.Thiswillvarysignificantlybetweenregionsandwithindrainagebasins.

• Recentresearchhasexpandedtomulti-criteriaanalysis(consideringmanyaspectsatonce),whichinvolvesconsideringeconomic,political,social,andenvironmentalaspectsintheanalysisofpotentialadaptationmeasuresandtheircostsandbenefits.

Researchneeds• QuantitativeanalysesonwhetherCanadianutilitieswillbeabletorespondtotheexport

opportunityofhighersummerelectricitydemandintheUS

• Adaptationstrategiestointegrateperspectivesofdifferentwaterusers(e.g.industry,government,andresidential)andchangingresourcedemands

• Studiestakingintoaccounttheuncertaintyoffuturehydrologicalprojections

• Researchonnaturaladaptationmeasures,e.g.,therestorationofwetlandstoregulateflowduringtimesoflowandpeakflows

Collaborationamongcompanies,regulators,scientistsandotherstakeholderswillincreasethelikelihoodofadaptationtoclimatechange.

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Energy”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.81.

Keyclimatechangeimpactsintheenergysector.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.79.

Stakeholder Profile 3: Canadian Agriculture and Food Industry Association OverviewFoodproductionisamajoreconomicdriverinCanada,withtheagriculturesectorcontributingbillionsofdollarstooureconomy.Intwoprovinces,PrinceEdwardIslandandSaskatchewan,agricultureprovidesmoreemploymentthananyothersector.Canada’sfoodsystemisasvariedasitsgeography.Foodproductionfromagriculturereliesmostlyonintensivecultureandharvestpractices.However,non-commercialfishing,hunting,gathering,andgardeningarealsoimportantsourcesoffood.ImpactofclimatechangeClimateaffectscropproductivity;animalproduction,virility,anddiseases;pollinatorhealth;andwateravailabilityandquality.WhileallofCanadawillbeaffectedbychangesintemperatureandprecipitation,theimpactswillnotbeuniformacrossthedifferentagriculturallandscapes.Therewillbedistinctissuesforfourregions.1. EasternandcentralCanada

• Floodingfromincreasedspringrunoffmayrequirebuildingsystemslikewetlandsforwaterretention.

• Increasedtemperaturewilllengthenthegrowingseasonbutwillalsoincreaseweedsandagriculturalpestsanddiseases.

• Livestockwillneedlessheatingbutmoreairconditioning.Heatwavescannegativelyimpactanimalhealth,butwarmerwinterscanhelpfattenlivestock.

2. Northernandremotecommunities

• Climatechangeisaffectingtheavailabilityandqualityofwildfoodsuchasberries,wildrice,andgameanimals.

• Iceconditionsarechanging(changeshuntingpatterns).

• Stormsaremoreintense(affectingwildfoodgathering).

3. Prairies

• WaterissuesrepresentthegreatestconcernforthePrairies.Reducedsummerrainfallandmorefrequentdroughtsmightrequiremoreirrigationforcropsandlivestock;however,otherpressuresmaylimittheabilitytoexpandirrigatedagriculture.

4. BritishColumbia

• Managementofwaterresourceswillbeachallengebecauseofreducedsummerstreamflows,reducedgroundwaterrecharge,andincreasingdemandsforwaterfromothersectors.

Possibleoutcomes

• Amodestincreaseinagriculturalfoodproduction

• Changesincropmanagementpractices

• Expansionofmaplesyrupindustrynorthward

• Shorterice-roadseasoninnortherncommunities,posingachallengetofoodtransporttoisolatedareas

• Longermarinetransportseasoninnorthernareas,tothebenefitofcoastalcommunitieswithportfacilities

• SealevelriseincoastalregionsofBritishColumbiacouldcausefloodingoffarmlandandaffectdrinkingandirrigationwater

• ImpactonB.C.wineries,orchards,andagri-tourismduetohigherriskofpests,fires,andsummerdrought

ExistingresearchStudieshavedemonstratedthatchangesintemperatureandprecipitationwillhaveimportanteffectsonagricultureinCanada,intensifyingexistingrisksandpresentingnewones.Thesechangeswillalsocreatenewopportunitiesforeachgeographicalregion.Researchneeds• Morestudiesinyieldpredictions(assumingthatcropproductivitycouldeitherincreaseordecrease

inachangingclimate)

• Studiestodevelopourunderstandingofcurrentclimatevariability

• Studiesthatlinkscientificandlocalknowledgetoinformwatermanagementdecisions

• Rearchanddevelopmentinirrigationtechnology

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Agriculture”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.104.

MapshowingtheagriculturalextentofCanada.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.104.

Stakeholder Profile 4: Mining Association of Canada OverviewMiningcontributestotheeconomiesofallprovincesandterritories,insmallcommunitiesandlargecities.Thatsaid,thiseconomiccontributionfluctuates,dependingonthenumberofminesoperatingandthevalueofthecommodityproduced.TheCanadianminingsectoremployspeopleinmineralextraction,insmelting,infabrication,andinmanufacturing.AccordingtotheMiningAssociationofCanada,theindustryplanstoinvestheavilyinprojectsoverthenextfewyears;thismaybeanopportunitytomakeclimatechangeadaptationpartofminingactivitieslikemineralexploration,mineconstruction,operations,transportation,andmineclosure.ImpactsofclimatechangeClimatechangeaffectsallstagesintheminingcycle,includingplanning,currentandfutureoperations,andclosingmines.Studieshaveidentifiedseveralaspectsofminingoperationsthatarecurrentlyaffectedbychangingclimaticconditions,including:a)builtinfrastructure;b)transportationinfrastructure;c)extractionandprocessing;andd)dailyoperations.

• Extremeclimateevents(e.g.,torrentialrains)havealreadyexceededtheabilityofsomeminestooperateastheyweredesignedto.

• WarmerwintershaverenderedseasonaliceroadsintheNorthwestTerritorieslessreliablethaninthepast.

• Warm,dryconditionsincreasedustemissions,requiringmineoperatorstoemploydustcontrolmeasureslikewatersprayingandcoveredstorageareas.

• Dailyoperationsatminesitesaresensitivetoextremeweatherconditions,includingintenserainandsnowfall,flooding,drought,changingiceconditions,extremecold,andforestfires—allofwhichcanreduceoperationalcapacity.

Possibleoutcomes• ReductionsinArcticseaicecouldleadtonewopportunitiesforminingexplorationand

developmentintheNorth,relatedinparttolowershippingcosts.

• Decreasedviabilityofwinterroadscouldaffectaccesstomanynorthernminesites.

• Increasedprecipitationassociatedwithclimatechangeinsomeareacouldbenefitsomemineralsminingoperationsbyhelpingtocontroldustemissions.

• Toomuchprecipitationimpedesthedryingofminedmaterials,whichthenrequiresmoreenergy,resultinginhighercosts.

ExistingresearchThemajorityofavailableresearchonclimatechangeimpactsandadaptationintheminingsectorfocusesonnorthernregions,onissuesincludingthefollowing:

• Permafrostintegrity• Wintertransportationnetworks• Watermanagement• ThepotentialforArcticseawaysasseaicemelts

ResearchneedsMoreresearchisneededonclimatechangeimpactsandadaptationwithregardtominingoperationsinsouthernCanada.

• Studiesareneededonabandonedmininginfrastructurethatwasnotdesignedforthefullrangeofchangingclimaticconditions.Someofthesesitescouldposeseriousriskstotheenvironmentandthehealthofsurroundingcommunities.

• Decision-makersresponsiblefordesigning,building,maintaining,andretiringmininginfrastructureneedabetterunderstandingofthelikelyimpactsoffutureclimatechangesatminesites;andhowengineeringtechniquescanbeadoptedtomanagethesechanges.Availableclimatescenariosarenotadequatetohelpdecision-makingbymineoperators.

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Mining”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.76.

Value(millionsofdollars)ofmineralproductionbyprovinceandterritory,2000and2010.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.77.

Stakeholder Profile 5: Tourism Industry Association of Canada OverviewTheWorldTravelandTourismCouncilforecastssteadygrowthinCanada’stourismsectorbetween2012and2022(anaverageof2.9percentperyear).Ourtourismindustryandourfederalandprovincialgovernmentsfeelthatmajortourismgrowthispossible,asinternationalarrivalsareprojectedtoincreaseto1.8billionby2030.Tourismiscloselylinkedtoweatherandthenaturalenvironment.Becauseofthis,climatechangeisanticipatedtohaveextensiveimpactsonthesustainabilityandcompetitivenessoftourismdestinationsandmajortourismmarketsegmentsaroundtheworld.RecentrankingsoftheimpactsofclimatechangeontourismworldwidehaveconsistentlyidentifiedCanadaasacountrywiththepotentialtoimproveitscompetitivepositionasaninternationaldestinationWhiletourismisanimportanteconomicdriverineveryregionofCanada,ithasevengreaterimportanceforsmallcommunitieslikeparkgatewaycommunities,“cottaging”districts,andmanyotherdestinations.Itrepresentsakeyeconomicrevitalizationstrategywheretraditionalresource-basedeconomieshavedeclined.ImpactsofclimatechangeAlonger“summer”tourismseason,andreduced“sunshinedestination”travelinwinterwouldbenefittheCanadiantourismsector.

• Parksystems:NationalandprovincialparksareamongCanada’smostrenownedtourismattractions.Withclimatechange,visitstotheseparkscouldincreaseacrossthecountry.Ifcurrentdemandpatternsremain,increaseswillbegreatestinAtlanticCanada,Ontario,andQuebec.

• Warm-weatherrecreation:Witheffectiveadaptation,majorwarm-weathertourismmarketsinCanadacouldbenefitfromprojectedclimatechange.Theprojectionoflongergolfseasonscouldreasonablybeextendedtothingslikewaterparks,themeparks,zoos,boating,fishing,andbeachrecreation.

• Winterrecreation:Adegradedandshortenedwintertourismseason,ontheotherhand,representsarisktotourisminmanypartsofCanada.Theskiindustrywilldependmoreonsnowmaking,andsnowmobilingcouldbelargelydecreasedinthefuture.

• Nature-basedtourism:InCanada’snorth,changingiceconditionsarelengtheningtheArcticcruiseseasonandallowingaccesstopreviouslyinaccessiblelocations.ThepolarbeartourismmarketinChurchill,Manitoba,willbethreatenedoverthenext20yearsbydecliningsea-iceconditionsonHudsonBay.Changesinbiodiversityandwildlifereproductionwilllikelyimpactsportfishing(e.g.,increasedrecreationalfishinginnorthernOntarioduetoincreasedwalleyeproductivity)andhunting(e.g.,moosehuntingwillshiftnorthward).

• “Lastchancetourism”:Climate-inducedenvironmentalchangehasgivenrisetothisnewmarket,wheretouristsvisitadestinationoranattractionbeforeitislosttoclimatechange.

Possibleoutcomes• Thetourismindustryappearstobewellpositionedtobenefitfromclimatechangeoverthe

shortterm.

• AlongercruisingseasoninArcticCanadacouldbenefitlocalresidentsthroughincreasedseasonalemployment.IncreasedtourismcouldalsogeneratemoreinterestinInuitart,cultureandtraditions.

• Changesinthefrequencyandmagnitudeofextremeevents(windstorms,floods,forestfires,etc.)willposeachallengetoparkagenciesintermsofinfrastructuredamage,visitorsafety,andbusinessinterruptions.

• Maintainingwaterqualitywillbechallenging(swimmingareas)andincreasedirrigation(golfcoursesforexample)willbedifficultinregionswithlimitedordecliningwaterresources.

CurrentresearchTherearealotofstudiesontheeffectsofclimatechangeonthetourismsector.TourismoperatorshaveimplementedawiderangeofadaptationstoallowthemtooperateineveryclimaticzoneinCanada.Butthesestrategieshavebeenalmostexclusivelytomanagetheimpactsofcurrentclimatechanges.Researchneeds

• Studiesonthewhethercurrentadaptationstrategieswillbesustainableinthelongterm,bothfinanciallyandenvironmentally

• Studiesontourists’responsestoclimate-relatedchangesintourismlandscapesinordertocreateeffectiveadaptationstrategies

• Studiesonhowtourismwillbeaffectedbytheinteractionbetweenclimatechangeandfactorslikefuelpricesandtransportationcosts,borderrestrictions,currencyfluctuations,internationalreputation,demographicandmarkettrends,etc.

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Industry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.135;andinChapter5ofCanada’sMarineCoastsinaChangingClimate,p.181.EconomiccontributionoftourisminCanadiancoastalprovincesandterritories.Source:Canada’sMarineCoastsinaChangingClimate,p.79.(AdaptedfromTourismIndustryAssociationofCanada,2012.)

Stakeholder Profile 6: Canadian Construction Association OverviewTheresidentialconstructionindustryinvolvesbothnewhousesandrenovations.Thesectoraccountsforapproximately6percentofCanada’sgrossdomesticproduct.Growthisdrivenbylowlevelsofunemployment,lowinterestrates,andimmigration.TheCanadianHomeBuilder’sAssociationexpectsnewhomestartstobesteadyoverthenextfewyears,buttoincreaseinresponsetoimmigrationanddemographicpressures.Whennewresidentialhomesarebuilt,thereisanassumptionthattheclimatewillremainstatic.Butextremeweatherlinkedwithclimatechangecaneasilyexceedthedesignthresholdofthesestructuresandcausedamage.ThelatestIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChangereportonextremeweatherconcludesthat“smallincreasesinclimateextremesabovethresholdsorregionalinfrastructuretippingpointshavethepotentialtoresultinlargeincreasesindamagestoallformsofexistinginfrastructurenationallyandtoincreasedisasterrisks.”ImpactsofclimatechangeAnalysisoftheimpactofclimatechangeonthehousingsectorlargelyfocusesontheriskslinkedwithdirectclimateimpacts,specificallyanincreaseinpropertydamagecausedbymoreintenseandfrequentextremeweather:

• Increaseinwaterdamagecausedbysewerbackupsandbasementfloodingafterintenserainfall• Increaseinbuildingdamagecausedbyincreaseinwindspeed• Increaseintheweatheringprocesscausedbygradualincreasesintemperatureand

precipitation

PossibleoutcomesPotentialindirectimpactsfromclimatechangeonresidentialhousingcouldincludethefollowing:

• Changesintheattitudesofhomebuyers(e.g.,increaseddemandforresilienthousing)• Increasedregulatorypressure(e.g.,changestobuildingcodes)• Increasedfinancialliability(e.g.,morestringentlendingorinsuranceconditions)• Increasedcostsofbuildingahomeifnewtechnologiesordesignpracticesareincorporated

Theseindirectimpactscouldhelpcreatecommercialincentivesforhomebuilderstoimplementadaptationmeasures.Formoststakeholdersinthehousingsector,climatechangeadaptationisanewconcern.Mitigationmeasureslikeimprovingenergyefficiencyarestillthemainfocusofresearchandpolicy.Inordertopromoteclimatechangeadaptation,multiplestakeholdersincludinghomebuilders,regulators,consumers,andthefinancialservicessectorshouldsupporttheuseofanumberoftoolsandpractices:

• Buildingcodes:updatethesebasedonfutureweathertrends• Land-useplanning:buildhomesinareasprotectedfromthehazardsofextremeweatherevents

(e.g.,avoidfloodplains)• Retrofitsforexistinghomes:improvetheresiliencyofexistinghomestoextremeweather• Financingadaptation(homebuilders):expandconstructionbudgetsandwarrantyprogram

ExistingresearchExistingstudiesmakeadistinctionbetween“direct”climateimpacts,suchasextremeweather,and“indirect”impacts,suchaschangesinconsumerdemands.Mostresearchtodatefocusesondirectimpacts,withonlylimitedinformationavailableonindirectimpacts.

Researchneeds• Researchonindirectimpactsofclimatechange• Moreinformationforhomebuildersaboutthelocalclimatechangeriskssotheyaremotivated

toimplementadaptiveactions• Researchonthecostsandbenefitsofretrofitsandbuildingcodechanges• Researchonthecostsandbenefitsofchangingdesignstoimproveresiliencetoclimaterisks• Capacitytodevelopappropriateadaptationsolutions,suchasnewdesigntechniquesand

technologies• Collaborationbetweenbuildingscientists,theinsuranceindustry,andhomebuilders

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“ResidentialConstruction”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.149.

Externalstakeholders’roleinpromotingadaptationinresidentialhousingmarket.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.150.

Stakeholder Profile 7: Insurance Bureau of Canada OverviewInsurancecompanieshavetheninth-largestincomeofCanada’s22industries(StatisticsCanada,2012a).Insuranceincludesanumberofdifferentsub-sectorsincludinglifeinsurance,healthinsurance,andpropertyinsurance.Someinsurancesectors,suchaslifeinsurance,donotcurrentlyappearsensitivetovariationintheweather.However,propertyinsurance,andtoalesserextentautoinsurance,experiencesignificantswingsincostsandearningswithweathervariation.Infact,weatherdamageclaimshaverecentlyemergedasthelargestexpenseforpropertyinsurancecompaniesinCanada.DamagetohomesandbusinessescausedbysevereweatherhasbeenincreasingforseveraldecadesinCanadaandelsewherearoundtheglobe(in2011,theCanadianinsuranceindustrypaidoutarecord$1.7billionforpropertydamageclaimslinkedtoweatherevents).Infact,lossanddamageduetointenserainfall,hurricanes,tornadoes,wildfires,andwinterstormshaverecentlygrowntosurpassfireandtheft.Theincreaseprimarilyinvolvesbasementflooddamageclaims.ImpactsofclimatechangeClimatechangeandthepotentialincreaseinthefrequencyofsevereweatherhaveemergedasasignificantpriorityforpropertyinsurers.

• IntenseraincanoverwhelmCanada’sagingurbansewersystemsandcausedamagestohomesandbusinesses.

• WarmingmayincreasetheseverityofAtlantichurricanes,resultinginmoreclaimsfordamagefromwindandheavyrain.

• Anincreaseintheseverityofsummerstorms(e.g.,tornadoes,hailstorms,lightningevents)couldincreasedamagesandlosses.

• Morelargewildfireswouldaddtotheriskoffiredamageincommunitiesontheedgeofforestland.

Possibleoutcomes• Insurerscoulduseadaptiveactions(e.g.,adjustingwhattheycover,raisingprices)toprotect

themselvesagainstcostscausedbyextremeweather.• Insurancepriceincreasescouldmakeratesunaffordable,andregulatoryinterventionsmayforce

reductions.• Insurerscouldofferlowerratestoindustriesandpropertyownerswhoinvestinclimatechange

adaptation.• Adaptivemeasurescouldresultfromcollaborationbetweeninsurersandstakeholderswith

influenceoverinfrastructureandbuildingcodes.ExistingresearchCanadianandinternationalstudiesondevelopingadaptiveactions,likeadjustmentstocoverageandpriceincreases,areavailablefortheinsurancesector.

Researchneeds• Estimatesofthecontributionofclimatechangetothecostofclaimsthathavebeenpaidby

insurersinCanada

• Studiesonhowinsurerscouldpartnerwithuniversities,governments,homebuilders,andconsumerstopromoteadaptiveactions

• Developmentofdemonstrationhomeswithfeaturesthatgobeyondbuildingcodestopreventdamagefromhurricanesandintenserainfall

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Industry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.135.

InsuredlossesfromextremeweathereventsinCanada.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.143.

Stakeholder Profile 8: Canadian Association of Importers and Exporters OverviewManufacturingisCanada’slargestandmostdiverseindustrialsector.Severaltensofthousandsofcompaniesparticipateinthesector,includinglargeinternationalcompaniesandmanymid-sizeandsmallerones.Thissectorhasexperiencedsignificantchallengesinrecentyearsduetotheglobaleconomiccrisis,thelowCanadiandollar,andweaknessinexportmarkets.Mostmanufacturershaveexperiencedsomedisruptionsfromsevereweatherevents,suchasdelaysinsecuringcriticalsupplies,challengesinmakingdeliveriesontime,anddisruptionsfrompowerfailures.ImpactsofclimatechangeClimatechangecanhavearangeofphysicalimpactsonthemanufacturingsector.Changesintheenvironmentcanlimittheavailabilityofcertainkeymanufacturinginputs,suchaswaterortimber,therebyincreasingcostsformanufacturers.

• Forestfires,pests,diseases,andchanginggrowthpatternscoulddecreaseforestproductivity,whichinturncouldincreasecostsformanufacturingproducts(e.g.,woodproductsforconstruction,pulpandpaper).

• Watershortagesareariskforindustrialprocessesthatusewaterforcooling,irrigation,cleaning,orrefiningrawmaterials.

• Highertemperaturesandhumiditycandecreaseworkers’productivityandincreasehealthrisks.

• Extremeweathercanalsodisruptoperationsbydamaginginfrastructureandinterruptingsupplychains.Forexample,anAtlantichurricanecoulddisruptvitaltransportationofmaterialsandshutdownsupplierplantsinsouthernOntario.

PossibleoutcomesChangesinconsumerdemandsandpreferences—duetoclimatechangeitselfaswellasincreasingenvironmentalawareness—presentindirectopportunitiesandrisksforseveralareasofmanufacturing.

• Milderwintersandwarmersummersmayincreasethedemandforcertainconsumerproductsanddecreaseitforothers.

• Areasofmanufacturingthataregreenhouse-gas-intensivecouldfacerisksasconsumersstartbuyingproductsthataremoreenergy-efficient.

ExistingresearchExistingstudiesmakeadistinctionbetween“direct”climateimpacts,suchasextremeweather,and“indirect”impacts,suchaschangesinconsumerdemand.Mostresearchtodatefocusesondirectimpacts.AndstudiesonclimatechangeandtheCanadianmanufacturingsectoralmostexclusivelyaddressmitigationactions(actionstoreduceenergyuseortoreducegreenhousegasemissions).

Researchneeds• Studiesthatdocumentindirectclimateimpacts(e.g.,changesinconsumerdemand)• Studiesthatdocumentclimatechangeimpacts,risks,andopportunities• Studiesonthecostsandbenefitsofadaptationasabusinessstrategy(e.g.,buyinginsuranceto

coverlossesanddamage,environmentalmanagementatmanufacturingsitestodealwithwaterissuesorweatherextremes,usingseveralsuppliersorhavingseparateproductionfacilitiestoreducedisruptioninthesupplychain,producingsurplusesofthosegoodsthatfrequentlygetdisrupted)

• Accuratecost-benefitanalysisofusingadaptationstrategiestoprotectsupplychainswhen,forexample,extremeweathereventsdisrupttransportationofmaterials

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Industry”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.135.

Stakeholder Profile 9: Biodiversity OverviewCanadaishometomajorportionsoftheworld’spolarregionsandtundra,borealandtemperateforests,grasslands,andaquaticecosystems.ThelatterincludetheGreatLakesaswellasterritorialwatersinthePacific,Arctic,andAtlanticoceans.Theseecosystemscontainabout10percentoftheworld’sforestsand20percentoftheworld’sfreshwater.Theyprovidenichespaceformorethan70,000speciesofmammals,birds,reptiles,amphibians,fish,invertebrates,plants,andotherorganisms.Biodiversitymeansthevarietyofspeciesandecosystems,andtheecologicalprocessestheyarepartof.Itcontributestocleanerairandwater,climateregulation,carbonstorage,pollination,andfloodregulation.Humansbenefitfrombiodiversityas,forexample,asourceoffood,fibre,materialsforclothing,timber,andrecreationalopportunities.Biodiversityisvitaltoeconomicsectorssuchasagricultureandtourism.Anditisvitalduringperiodsofrapidenvironmentalchange.ImpactsofclimatechangeEvidencethatCanada’sbiodiversityisunderincreasingpressurefromclimatechangecontinuestogrow.Someimpactsofclimatechangearealreadyevident.

• ImpactsonArcticspecieswillinvolvehabitatloss,competitionfromspeciesmigratingnorthward,andthearrivalofnewdiseasesandparasitesfromthesouth.

• Impactsonspeciesdistribution,abundance,physiology,andlifecycletimingwillalterecologicalrelationshipsandhabitats.

• Coastalandestuaryecosystemsareatriskfromerosion,whichcouldeliminatehabitatforsomespecies.

• Drierconditionsinprairieecosystemswilllikelydecreaseproductivityinnaturalgrasslands.• Astheclimatewarms,habitatscouldcontractorbecomeincreasinglyfragmented.• Climatechangeimpactsonwaterquantityandqualityareaconcernforlakesandriversacross

Canada.• InHudsonBay,thenumbersanddistributionofsealsandpolarbearscorrelatewithashorter

seaiceseasonandhigherwatertemperatures.Thesameistrueforanumberoffishspecies.• Increasesinwildfires,insectoutbreaks,anddroughtswillresultinlossofold-growthforests.• Innorthernandalpineregions,therapidmeltingofglacierswillchangeriverandstreamflows.

Thiswillaffectdownstreamaquaticecosystems,aswellaswatersuppliesformanytownsandcities.

PossibleoutcomesCurrentevidenceindicatesthattherangeformanyspecieswilllikelyshiftnorthwardinresponsetowarmingtemperatures.Thiswouldhavemajorimplicationsforpeoplewhorelyonthecurrentconfigurationofecosystems.

• ManybirdspeciesthatcurrentlybreedinthenortheasternUnitedStatesarelikelytomovenorthwardintoCanada,increasingbirdspeciesrichnessinEasternCanada.

• ClimatechangemayincreasebiodiversityinsouthernQuebecduringthiscenturyasspeciesmovenorthward.

• Thesouthernedgeofspeciesrangeislikelytocontractinresponsetoshiftingclimate.• TheWestNilevirusandLymediseaseinhumanscouldexpandtheirdistributionswithchanging

climate.

ExistingresearchMostworktodatehasfocusedontheeffectsofclimatechangeonindividualspecies.Asfortheeffectsofclimatechangeonbiodiversity,therehasbeenarangeofadaptationrecommendationsaimedatmaintainingorrestoringbiodiversity.Theseincludeimprovedinstitutionalcoordination(e.g.,government,universities,industry,andenvironmentalorganizations),inclusionofspatialandtemporal(setintime)perspectives,andintegratedcoordinationofclimatechangescenariosintoplanningandactionrelatedtoecosystemmanagement.Researchneeds

• Studiesoftheeffectsofclimatechangeonspeciespatternsandresponseofspeciesgroups• Studiesofecologicalrelationships,whichwillhelpusunderstandtheimpactsofclimatechange

onhowecosystemsfunction• Studiesoftheinfluenceofotherfactors,suchascompetitionandpredation,onpopulation

distributionandabundance• Studiesoftheeffectoflocalizedmicroclimatesandextinctionrisks

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“Biodiversity”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.159.

Projectedchangefromthepresentto2071–2100inthedistributionsofBritishColumbiaecologicalzones,withbunchgrasscommunitiesandponderosapineforestsbecomingmorecommonthantoday,whilealpinetundramaydisappear.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.167.

Stakeholder Profile 10: Transportation Association of Canada OverviewTransportationservicesaccountfor4.2percentofCanada’sgrossdomesticproduct.Dependabletransportationnetworksarecriticaltoawiderangeofeconomicandsocialsectors.Transportisverysensitivetoclimate,andtherearemanyexamplesoftransportationdisruptionsrelatedtoweathereventsandseasonalconditions.Theclimatesensitivityoftransportationsystemsisreflectedindesignandconstructionstandards,spending,andmobilityandsafetyoutcomes.Well-maintainedinfrastructure(e.g.,roads,railways,bridges)ismoreresilienttoachangingclimate.Thisisespeciallytruewhenitcomestogradualchangesintemperatureandprecipitationpatterns:inmanycases,thesecanbeaddressedthroughregularmaintenanceandnormalupgradecyclesoradjustmentstothewayasystemisoperatedormaintained.Infrastructureisdesignedtoprovideservicesoveritslifetime—anywherefrom10to100years—andmustbeadaptedovertimetomeetchangingcircumstances(e.g.,changesintechnology,society,andbusiness).ImpactsofclimatechangeImpactsofclimatechangeareassociatedwithextremeweatherevents(e.g.,heatwaves,heavyrainfall)aswellasmoregradualchanges(e.g.,permafrostthaw,highertemperatures,sea-levelrise,anddecliningwaterlevelsinfreshwatersystems).Climatechangepresentsarangeofchallengesforinfrastructuredesign,construction,operation,andmaintenance.ItisrecognizedasafactorthatneedstobeconsideredasCanadastrivestomaintainandimproveexistinginfrastructure.

• Disruptionfromextremeevents(e.g.,floods,fire,storms)isthemainclimateconcernwithrespecttotransportation.

• Morefrequentandlongerheatwavescouldresultinpavementsoftening,railbuckling,andcargooverheating.

• Railwaysystemscouldbeimpactedbyflooding,erosion,landslides,andfires.• Thenorthernregionsarevulnerabletochangingclimateinanumberofways.Theyrelyona

combinationoficeroads,bargetransport,airservices,andlimitedrailaccessforcommercialactivitiesandcommunitysupply.

• Incoastalcommunities,transportinfrastructureisvulnerabletotheintensityandfrequencyofstormevents,whichcancausestorm-surgefloodingandsubmergence.

• WarmertemperaturescouldmeanlowerwaterlevelsintheGreatLakessystem,affectingtheGreatLakes–St.LawrenceSeaway,amajorinternationalshippingroute.

Possibleoutcomes

• Freezingrainevents—aswellassequenceslikerainonfreezingrain,orrainonsnow—arelikelytoincreaseinsouth-centralCanadaandwillposeriskstotransportation.

• Inlightofthewarmingtrend,therewillbeaneedtoreconsiderroaddesignandtousedifferentmaterials,especiallyintruckingcorridors.

• ForeachcentimetredecreaseinwaterlevelintheGreatLakes–St.LawrenceSeaway,shipcapacitywoulddecreasebysixcontainers,or60tons(TransportsQuébec,2012).

ExistingresearchTheworkofthePublicInfrastructureEngineeringVulnerabilityCommittee(PIEVC)hasbroadenedourunderstandingofhowtoadaptCanada’sinfrastructuretoclimatechange.UsingthePIEVC’srisk-basedassessmentprotocol,engineersandplannerscanviewandaddressclimatechangeasonefactoramongmanythataffectssystemresiliency—andplanaccordingly.Researchneeds

• Furtherassessmentofcurrentandfutureclimateriskstoinfrastructuresystemsisrequired.Thiswouldtheninformadjustmentstodesigncodesandstandardstoaddressfutureclimate.

Theinformationinthisprofilecanbefoundinthe“TransportationInfrastructure”sectionofCanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.233.Summary Date ReferenceWinterroadsinManitobaturnintoquagmires 3-Jan-12 CTVNews(2012)

Flightscancelledduetolowvisibilityandfog 17-Jan-12 PtashnickandHayes(2012)

Rainfall-inducedundergroundslidecreatessinkhole200mwidex5mdeeponHwy83inManitoba

3-Jul-12 CBCNews(2012c)

Icebuild-upinE.Arcticdamagesshipandcausesdelayinunloadingsealifts

29-Jul-12 CBCNews(2012d).

Wawainastateofemergencyduetorunofffromrain.Totaldamage>$10milliondollars

27-Oct-12 MetroNews(2012)

HurricaneSandycausesflightcancellationsinAtlanticCanada 29-Oct-12 TheTelegram(2012)

TheTrans-CanadaHwyinNewfoundlandclosedduetodamagefromalandslide

19-Nov-12

CBCNews(2012e)

SailingsfromVancouverIslandcancelledduetowinds,waveheightandseaconditions

19-Dec-12

Lavoie(2013)

RecordsnowfallaffectstransportinsouthernQuebec 27-Dec-12

RadioCanada(2012)

VIARailusesthe"snowfighter"toclearthetraintracksduringsnowstorms

24-Jan-13 Pinsonneault(2013)

RoadsclosedinNorthwesternOntarioasdriftingandblowingsnowimpactedhighwaysstillaffectedbyfreezingrain

30-Jan-13 CBCNews(2013a).

Roadandmarinetraveldelayedbywinterweather 18-Feb-13

NationalPost(2013a)

BargesupplytowesternArcticinterruptedbyice 3-Sep-13 CBCNews(2013c)

Examplesofweather-transportationnewsstoriesfrom2012–2013.Source:CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation,p.244.

Stakeholder Profile 11: Health and Social Well-Being OverviewClimatechangeposessignificantriskstohumanhealthandwell-being,withimpactsfromextremeweathereventsandnaturalhazards;fromairqualityandstratosphericozonedepletion;andfromwater-,food-,vector-,androdent-bornediseases.Inrecentyears,greatereffortshavebeenmadetoprepareforthesehealthimpactsbypublichealthofficials,emergencymanagementofficials,andnon-governmentalorganizations.AlthoughallCanadiansareatriskfromthehealthimpactsofclimatechange,somegroupshavebeenidentifiedasbeingmorevulnerable.Theseincludeseniors,childrenandinfants,thesociallyandeconomicallydisadvantaged,thosewithchronicdiseasesandcompromisedimmunesystems,aboriginalpeople,andresidentsofnorthernandremotecommunities.ImpactsofclimatechangeInthepast10years,strongerevidencehasemergedthatawiderangeofclimate-relatedimpactsareofpublic-healthconcerninCanada.1. Airquality

• Increasedairpollution,i.e.,higherlevelsofground-levelozoneandairborneparticulatematter,includingsmokeandparticulatesfromwildfires

• Increasedproductionofpollensandsporesbyplants2. Foodandwaterquality

• Increasedcontaminationofdrinkingwaterandrecreationalwaterbyrunofffromheavyrainfall• Changesinmarineenvironmentsthatresultinalgalbloomsandhigherlevelsoftoxinsinfishandshellfish

• Behaviouralchangesduetowarmertemperaturesresultinginanincreasedriskoffood-andwater-borneinfections(e.g.,throughlongerbarbecueandswimmingseasons)

3. Infectiousdiseasestransmittedbyinsects,ticks,androdents• Changesinthebiologyandecologyofvariousdisease-carryinginsects,ticks,androdents(includinggeographicaldistribution)

• Fastermaturationforthepathogenscarriedbyinsectsandticks• Longerdiseasetransmissionseason

4. Stratosphericozonedepletion• Withawarmerclimate,increasedhumanexposuretoultravioletradiationduetobehaviouralchanges

Possibleoutcomes• Heat-relatedillnessesanddeaths• Possiblechangedpatternsofillnessanddeathduetocolderconditionsinsomeregions• Increasedriskofcardiovasculardiseases(e.g.,heartattacks,ischemicheartdisease)• Respiratorydisorders;irritationofeyes,noseandthroat;andshortnessofbreath• Exacerbationofallergies• Food-andwater-borneillnessesandotherdiarrhealandintestinaldiseases• Possibleemergenceofnewinfectiousdiseases• Morecasesofsunburns,skincancers,cataracts,andeyedamage

• Variousimmunedisorders• Healthandmental-healthimpactsinaboriginalandnortherncommunitiesifenvironmental

changesaffecttheirlivelihood,relationshipwiththeland,andculture

ExistingresearchCanadaisaheadofmanydevelopedcountriesineffortstoprotecthealthfromclimatechange,accordingtoacomparisonlistedintheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.Canadaisparticularlystrongonresearchintotheimpactsofclimatechangeandadaptationoptionsinthehealthsector,thecomparisonshows.Itisalsooneofthefewcountriestorecognizetheparticularvulnerabilitiesofindigenousgroupsanddevelopspecificadaptationoptions.Publichealthofficialsandresearchersarefocusingonsomenewadaptationareasoffocus:

• Vulnerabilityassessmentsofhigh-riskpopulations• Actionstoaddresspsychosocialimpactsofclimatehazards,andothersecondaryhealtheffects• Newadaptivetechnologiesthatindividualscanuse(e.g.,devicesincarstowarnofwaterdepth,

landslideearly-detectionsystems)• Planningmeasuresforhealth-carefacilitiestohelpthemmanageemergencies• Preventativemeasures,likegreenroofstoreducetheurbanheatisland

Researchneeds• Researchonhowdampnessandtemperatureaffectmaterialsinbuildingsandthusindoorair

quality• Researchontheimpactsofclimatechangeonfoodandwatersecurityinthevariousregionsof

Canada• Researchonthecapacityandpreparednessofwaterutilitiestoadapttoclimatechange• Basicandappliedresearchstudieswithrespecttodiseasesurveillance,prevention,andcontrol• Longitudinalstudiesacrossdifferentdemographicgroups(children,elderly,urban,rural,

outdoorworkers)toidentifyhealthimpactsfromslow-developinghazards(e.g.,drought)andthecumulativeeffectsofclimatechange(e.g.,extremeheat,drought,wildfires)

p.208CanadainaChangingClimate:SectorPerspectivesonImpactsandAdaptation