The State Water Plan andRegional Water Planning Group Updates Regional Water Planning Group Updates

from the Groundwater Perspective

REGIONAL WATER PLANNINGAND THE 2012 STATE WATER PLANAND THE 2012 STATE WATER PLAN

REGIONAL WATER PLANNING: 12 INTERESTS

� Public

� Counties

� Municipalities

� Industries

� River authorities

� Electric-generating utilities

� Agriculture

� Environment

� Groundwater management areas

� Water districts

� Water utilities

� Small businesses

GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT AREASAND REGIONAL WATER PLANNING AREAS

REGIONAL WATER PLANNING PROCESS

� Project future population and water demand� Quantify existing and future water supplies available during repeat of drought of record

� Identify surpluses and needs� Evaluate and recommend water management strategiesstrategies

� Make policy recommendations� Adopt the plan

Existing Water

Supplies

Projected Water

Demand

Surplus (+) or

Need (-)

16 regional water

planning groups

12

REGIONAL WATER PLANNING: BY THE NUMBERS

6 water use categories

3,00012interest groups

450 voting and non-

voting planning group members

3,000water user groups

562 recommended

water management strategies to meet needs

6

HISTORIC AND PROJECTED TEXAS POPULATION GROWTH

25.4

29.7

33.7

37.7

41.9

46.3

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

Texa

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op

ula

tio

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illi

on

s)

8

3.0 3.9 4.75.8 6.4

7.79.6

11.2

14.2

17.0

20.9

25.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Texa

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PROJECTED POPULATION GROWTH BY COUNTY

18,010,59919,038,954

19,821,15220,517,886

21,190,52721,952,198

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

PROJECTED TOTAL WATER DEMAND(ACRE-FEET PER YEAR)

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

WATER DEMAND PROJECTIONS

GROUNDWATER USE

Groundwater provided 57 percent of the 13.8 million acre-feet of water used in the state in 2010, according to the latest TWDB Water Use Survey

information available.

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

Demand

Supply

PROJECTED WATER DEMAND ANDEXISTING SUPPLIES (ACRE-FEET PER YEAR)

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Groundwater supplies are projected to decrease 30 percent, from about 8 million acre-feet in 2010 to about 5.7 million acre-feet in 2010 to about 5.7

million acre-feet in 2060.

PROJECTED GROUNDWATER SUPPLIES AND AVAILABILITY

Number of counties with Changes in Availability between 2007 State Water Plan and 2011 Regional Water Plans:

Decade

Decrease of more than

1,000 acre-feet per year

Decrease of less than 1,000 acre-feet per year or increase of less than 1,000 acre-feet per year

Increase of more than 1,000 acre-feet per year

2010 20 170 64

2020 22 169 63

2030 22 169 63

2040 23 170 61

2050 26 169 59

2060 29 170 55

RECOMMENDED WATER MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES (2060)

GROUNDWATER STRATEGIES

� Installing new or supplemental wells

� Increasing production from existing wells

� Temporarily over-drafting aquifers to � Temporarily over-drafting aquifers to supplement supplies

� Transferring groundwater supplies from areas where projections indicate that surplus groundwater will exist to areas with needs

GROUNDWATER STRATEGIES

� Groundwater management strategies recommended in the 2011 regional water plans total 254,057 acre-feet in 2010, increasing to 800,795 acre-feet in 2060.

� Recommendations for groundwater desalination of 56,553 acre-feet in 2010 and 181,568 acre-feet in 2060 result in a total of 310,610 acre-feet of groundwater in 2010 and 982,363 acre-feet in 2060.

TOTAL CAPITAL COSTS OF THE 2012 STATE WATER PLAN

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS OF NOT MEETING NEEDS

Lost income:

• $12 billion in 2010

• $116 billion in 2060

Lost jobs:

• 115,000 in 2010

• 1 million in 2060

Lost state and local business taxes:

• $1 billion in 2010

• $10 billion in 2060

Lost population growth:

• 1.4 million in 2060

21

CURRENT PLANNING CYCLE2011 TO 20172011 TO 2017

1 Description of Region

2 Projected Populations & Water Demands

3 Existing Water Supply Analysis

4 Water Management Strategies (WMSs)

5 Impacts of Selected WMSs on Key parameters of Water Quality & Moving water from Rural & Ag areas

CURRENT PLANNING TASKS

Moving water from Rural & Ag areas

6 Water Conservation & Drought Management Recommendations

7 Consistency with Long Term Protection of the State’s Water Resources, Agricultural Resources, and Natural Resources

8 Unique Stream Segments and Reservoir Sites and Legislative Recommendations

9 Infrastructure Financing Recommendations

10 Public Participation and Adoption of Plan

ESTIMATED SCHEDULE

MANAGED AVAILABLE GROUNDWATER IMPACTS

� Planning groups now required to use modeled available groundwater (MAG) volumes to determine water supply needs in their regions.

� MAGs will be in planning database in next month, and planning groups working through spring 2012 on allocating existing supplies to water user on allocating existing supplies to water user groups.

� Some groundwater availability estimates may be lower than the regional water planning group’s groundwater availability estimates in prior regional plans, impacting the amount of water supply needs and strategies in the plans.

MANAGED AVAILABLE GROUNDWATER IMPACTS

� Existing water supplies

�Water supply needs

�Water management strategies

PLANNING TIMELINE

� Initially prepared plans (IPP): March 2015

� Comment period on IPP: 120 days

� Planning groups adopt and submit � Planning groups adopt and submit final plans: Sept 2015

� Approval of plans by TWDB Board: fall 2015

� State Water Plan due: January 5, 2017

QUESTIONS?

Carolyn Brittin

Carolyn.Brittin@twdb.texas.gov

www.twdb.texas.gov