Post on 21-Jan-2015
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Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist1
Strategic Foresight
an introduction
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist2
an introduction
Premises for socio-technological studies (incl. foresight)
� Natural laws are quite reliable for all practical purposes
(some theories may be false, new mechanisms are discovered)
� Technology and engineering are subject to natural laws
(it cannot be built if not in accordance with natural laws)
� Human biology and psychology have some fairly reliable components
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist3
� Human biology and psychology have some fairly reliable components
(as biology and cognition follows natural laws)
� Economics follows a certain logic and sets of established rules
(esp. if based on human biology and psychology, e.g. needs)
� “Societal laws” are quite artificial and can be subject to change over
time (laws and regulations, norms, tastes, acceptable behavior etc.)
���� “Societal laws” can impact economics and to some degree
“human psychology” and “legal technologies”, but not the natural laws
In contrast to natural laws, “Societal laws” can be changed!
Premises for socio-technological studies (incl. foresight)
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist4
Finally only physical things can affect physical things…
Possibilities are depending on:
� Restrictions from natural laws
� Available technology (e.g. for analysis, communication etc.)
Premises for socio-technological studies (incl. foresight)
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist5
� Realization of physical things is dependent on thought processes:
� Intelligence (research)
� Laws and regulations
� Societal acceptance (incl. will people buy it, invest in R&D etc.)
What we can do (if we really want tit)
But do we really?
Societal reactions
Interest groups
Policy/Laws
Emotions
Finances
Wild Cards
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist6
Policy/Laws
Undesirable Technologies
Desirable Technologies
�
∞
po
ssib
le
Currently possible
Currently legally implemented
Definition Foresight
Systemic study about
� possible
� probable
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
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� probable
� preferable
Futures
Not a prediction of the future,
but an evaluation of possible developments based on:
� Natural laws
� Socio-economic “patterns” and theories (“weak laws”)
� The state of present
Definition Foresight
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist8
� The state of present
� scientific
� technological
� socio-economic
� possibilities and developments as baseline
The goal is to influence the direction of events to archive
a desirable (relative standpoint) future.
Strategic Foresight
“The best way to predict your future is to create it”
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“The best way to predict your future is to create it”
(Abraham Lincoln?, Peter Drucker?)
1) Identify possible futures (possible according to natural laws)
2) Identify probable futures (probable in regard to timeframes ,
expenses, practicality and “societal laws”)
3) Identify preferred futures (relative standpoints)
Strategic Foresight
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist10
3) Identify preferred futures (relative standpoints)
4) can the probabilities for preferred futures be changed through
changes of “societal laws”?
How to: Strategic Foresight
1) Identify possible futures
Natural Law Side
� What is possible within the framework of natural laws?
� What may be possible given a certain time-frame?
� Findings of basic research
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� Findings of basic research
� Gaps/uncertainties in basic research
� Technologies
� Analysis technologies
� Production technologies
� Enabling technologies
To create products that could bring about change in XYZ
How to: Strategic Foresight
1) Identify possible futures
Methodology
� R&D scanning (what is possible in theory)
� Weak signal scanning (blueprints, early demonstrators etc.)
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� Analysis of R&D/technology dependencies
(e.g. of analysis technologies, enabling technologies etc. and
their availability in dependence to time)
2) Identify probable futures
Socio-economic Side
� Are the resources available
� Is it economically feasible
How to: Strategic Foresight
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist13
� Probable in regard to time-frames (generally: the probability for a
new possible technology to be implemented rises with time)
� Is there societal interest (incl. laws and regulations, economic
considerations, expressed societal challenges etc.)
To create products that could bring about change in XYZ
How to: Strategic Foresight
2) Identify probable futures
Methodology
� Economic forecasts
� Macrohistory (e.g. cycles etc.)
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� Socio-economic Trends and legal landscapes
� Analysis of socio-economic dependencies
� Identification of possible “wild cards” (possible but improbable
game changers)
� Scenario methods
� Delphi methods for possibility assessment
How to: Strategic Foresight
3) Identify preferable futures
Socio-economic side
� What are the gaps to the status quo?
� What do we want to change?
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Strategic Futurist15
� What are “Grand Challenges”
� How do we want to live?
� How do we want to achieve how we want to live?
� What is desirable for whom?
� Who are the stakeholders of change?
� What are possible trade-offs?
How to: Strategic Foresight
3) Identify preferable futures
Methodology
� Visions and Vision Assessment
� Grand Challenges
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� “Normative Delphi”
� Technology Assessment
� Influencing entities and their positions can e.g. displayed/modeled
with a “force diagram”
4) Can the probabilities be changed through changes of “societal laws”?
� Gap analysis between possible, probable and desirable futures
� Here “Societal Laws” are a crucial element
Goal: Influence “Societal Laws” (perception, laws, acceptance, desires,
How to: Strategic Foresight
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
Strategic Futurist17
Goal: Influence “Societal Laws” (perception, laws, acceptance, desires,
funding etc.) to make more desirable futures more probable.
4) Can the probabilities be changed through changes of “societal laws”?
Methodology
� Path dependency analysis (how does A impact B)
� SWOT Analysis to arrive at XYZ
How to: Strategic Foresight
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� Identification of requirements (what do we need, e.g. funding, access
to decision-makers, HR, media, tools etc. and how can we get it)
� Identification of leverage points
� Strategy planning and action plan
� Force diagrams
Integrative Model
Vision: What do we want?
TA/ELSI:
• What may be consequences?
Vision Assessment
• How realistic is the vision?
• Which factors play a role?
• What do we need?
Challenge: What do we need?
+ Trends
+ History
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Strategic Futurist19
Revised Vision (desirable and possible)
(Innovation) Strategies
Scenarios
Forecasts (in plural!)
The earlier you know what might happen within a given time-frame
(e.g. a theory to be put into a product), the more time to act to:
� Invest in development of products (acceleration)
� Gather funding to achieve the goal in time
� Influence “Societal Laws”
Strategic Foresight
Dr. Miriam JS Leis
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� Influence “Societal Laws”
� or develop strategies to hinder an outcome
The technology is already there, but the legal framework lags behind
Terms: Legal Lag
(Examples: human embryonic stem cells, digital media and IPR,
Neurotechnology (e.g. concept of death), accountability in regard to
robotics/automated systems/prosthetics, life extension technologies)
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A perceived increase in the rate of technological (and sometimes social
and cultural) progress throughout history, which may suggest faster
and more profound change in the future.
(Vernor Vinge and Ray Kurzweil)
Terms: Accelerating Change
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