STUDY WORK GROUP MEETING No. 2 - Bismarck Airport, ND

transcript

March 15, 2016

STUDY WORK GROUPMEETING No. 2

Agenda� Welcome and introductions

� Brief overview of previous SWG meeting

� Airport focus group meeting results

� Summary of existing airport conditions

� Passenger demand analysis conclusions

� Overview of preliminary aviation forecasts

� Comments, questions and next steps

Team Introductions� Mead & Hunt, Inc. - offices in Fargo and Bismarck

� Bart Gover, Project Manager

� Jon Scraper, Project Coordinator

� Jen Boehm, Project Engineer

� Matt Blankenship, Project Planner

� Matt Dubbe, Terminal Architect

� Joseph Pickering, Air Service

� Dave Dietz, Lead Aviation Forecaster

� Kim Kenville Consulting –Grand Forks

� Public Outreach Program

� Stakeholder Focus Groups

Overview of Previous Meeting� What is a master plan

� Comprehensive study: short, medium and long-term

development

� “Roadmap” for future development

� Why a Master Plan

� Address key issues impacting Airport

� Focus on landside and airside access

� Meet customer needs and demands

� Required by FAA

Overview of Previous Meeting

� Master Plan Process

� 4 Study Work Group

Meetings

� Phase 1, 2, 3, and before

public meeting

� Moderate effort periods

� Phase 2 and 3

� Study Work Group member

role and responsibilities

� Key project issues, goals,

and objectives

SWG 1 SWG 2 SWG 3 SWG 4

Overview of Previous Meeting� Study Work Group Roles and Responsibilities

� Serve as a communication link with respective

stakeholders

� Sounding board for study recommendations

� Active meeting participation

� High level review of draft working papers

Overview of Previous Meeting� Key Project Issues, Goals and Objectives

� Focus on customer service opportunities

� Enhancing the passenger experience

� Terminal development and expansion

� Runway rehabilitation

� Promote land use compatibility

� Air cargo development

� Vehicular parking expansion

Focus Group Meetings

Focus Group Meetings� In consultation with the Airport Management team at BIS

several groups were identified for focus group

conversations in December 2015

� 10 groups were identified and contacted for 1-1.5 hour

meetings in the second week of December

� After a schedule had been set, a series of questions

regarding the airport were sent to the participants, along

with a brief description of “Airport Master Planning”

Focus Groups

� Chamber/Business

Community

� Airline Ground Service

Providers

� Air Cargo Providers

� Ground Transportation

Service providers

� Airline Representatives

� Government Partners

� General Aviation Users

� Adjacent Landowners

� Airport Employees

� City/County/Economic

Development and

Planners

Emerging Themes� Each group said they were exceptionally proud of

Bismarck’s Front Door – The Airport Terminal

1. Preserve the beauty and functionality of the terminal

while accommodating the need for growth and expansion

2. Landside expansion of parking, car rentals and access to

other airport buildings and businesses

Emerging Themes3. Other facility growth needs

� E911

� Maintenance and ARFF

� Radar

� Platt Drawing – addresses for the airport facilities

4. General Aviation – future plans

5. Upgrade the use of Technology where appropriate

� Website, mobile-friendly applications

Emerging Themes6. Organizational

� Cross Training for continued efficiencies

� Succession Planning in critical areas

Preliminary SWOT Analysis

STRENGTHS

• Terminal

• Cargo growth (10-20%)

• 2 FBOs

• ARNG

• Airfield Amenities

WEAKNESSES

• Terminal Congestion

• Baggage make-up

• Loss of GA to Mandan

• Cross Training

(MX/Ops)

• Professional

Development

OPPORTUNITIES

• Additional Allegiant Flights

• Non-Aeronautical Land Development

• Corporate Development

• Bus Route

• Uber

• E911 Growth

• Longer term lease with Gas Station

THREATS

• Economy

• Pilot Shortage (no mainline service)

• FAA Funding

• Cost of Construction

• Rising Operating Costs

• Allegiant stability

• Janitorial - continued terminal excellence

• Employee Team

• City Ownership

• No Debt

• Public Support

• Adequate Property

• Parking Issues

• SRE/ARFF

Equipment Age

• Ground Handlers

• Signage for Exiting

Vehicles

Inventory of Existing Conditions

Inventory� Role of Airport

� History

� Land Use

� Demographics

� Economic Impact

� Airside

� Landside

� Airspace

Airport Role� Federal (NPIAS) – Primary Non-hub Commercial Service

Airport (more than 10,000 enplanements, making up <

0.05% of national total)

� State – same as Federal guidelines

� Local – one of area’s vital links to global economy

History� Historical aviation

events specific to

Bismarck and US

� Aviation in

Bismarck is nearly

as old as aviation

itself

Bismarck

Airport

Historical

Timeline

Surrounding Environment/Land Use� Meteorological Conditions

� 85°/57° – July to 23°/2° – January

� Soil Composition

� Loamy sand and silt

� Regional Climate

� Humid Continental climate – temperature extremes

� Surrounding Land Uses

� Ranching/farming

Surrounding

Land Use Map

Demographics� Socioeconomic

� Population

� Retail Sales

� Employment

� Economic Impact

� 2015 North Dakota

Aviation Economic

Impact Study

Statistics and Airport Economic

Impacts

Airport

Tenants

Airside� Runways

� Taxiways

� Aprons

� Cargo Area

� NAVAIDs

� Weather

Reporting

Equipment

Runway

Summary

Airfield

Layout

Landside� Parking

� ARFF

� SRE

� Fuel Storage

Facilities

� Electrical Vaults

� ATCT

� Terminal

Terminal

Facilities

Hangar &

Support

Facilities Map

Airspace� General Facility

(Class D)

� Part 77

� Runway Protection

� Threshold Siting

Surfaces

� NAVAID Critical

Airline Terminal� Security Checkpoint

� Holdroom

� Ticketing

� Baggage Claim

� Rental Car

� Concessions

� Office Space

� Curbfront

TSA Checkpoint and Holdroom

Ticketing and Baggage Claim

Concessions and

Rental Car

Administrative Offices and Curbfront

Airport Terminal Building – Level One

Airport Terminal Building – Level Two

Passenger Demand Analysis

Passenger Demand Analysis� Overview

� Methodology

� Airport Use

� True Market Estimate

� Forecast Insights

Develop information on the travel patterns of local airline passengers who reside in the

Bismarck Airport (BIS) air service catchment area and provide insights into the Master

Plan enplanement forecast, including:

� Originating airports used by air travelers

� Diversion of airline passenger traffic to competing airports

� Estimate of total airline passengers in the catchment area and related

destinations

� Airlines used by local air travelers

� Average airfares by origin and destination airport

� Service levels at BIS and competing airports

� Assessment of the air service situation at BIS

Passenger Demand Analysis Overview

Provides objective air traveler data compiled from industry

accepted sources:

� Combines Airline Reporting Corporation (ARC) ticketed data and US

Department of Transportation (DOT) airline data to provide a

comprehensive overview of the air travel market� ARC data represents a sample of air travelers and includes tickets purchased through

travel agencies in the BIS catchment area as well as tickets purchased via online travel

agencies in the BIS catchment area but does not capture tickets issued directly by airline

Web sites

� Includes schedule, enplanement, airfare and capacity trends

� Year-ending June 30, 2015 bookings and O&D data

Methodology

BIS Air Service Catchment Area� 64 zip codes

� Estimated population –

154,260

� Conservative

representative of the

local market –

geographic area closest

to airport

� 14,090 ARC ticketsSource: December 2015 Passenger Demand Analysis, Mead & Hunt

Airport Use� Due to geographic

isolation, diversion

to alternate airports

is not a major issue.

BIS93%

ORIGINATING

AIRPORT

AIRPORT USE

Domestic1 BIS 477,776 93

2 FAR 30,375 6

3 MOT 8,314 1

Subtotal 516,465 100

International1 BIS 29,536 94

2 FAR 1,790 6

3 MOT 186 0

Subtotal 31,511 100

Domestic and international1 BIS 507,312 93

2 FAR 32,164 6

3 MOT 8,500 1

Total 547,976 100

� Bismarck

generates ~

60% of travel

COMMUNITY

AIRPORT USE % TRUE MARKET

ESTIMATEBIS FAR MOTBismarck 91 7 2 327,561

Mandan 93 6 1 40,650

Beulah 95 5 0 7,923

Hazen 87 8 5 7,379

Washburn 92 3 5 3,807

New Salem 100 0 0 2,953

Wilton 94 6 0 2,848

Mobridge 92 8 0 2,468

Glen Ullin 84 16 0 2,221

Center 90 4 7 2,020

Menoken 93 0 7 1,926

Wishek 82 18 0 1,860

Linton 100 0 0 1,688

Baldwin 91 9 0 1,651

All Other 88 10 2 21,193

Total 93 6 1 547,976

Airport Use

True Market EstimateRANK DESTINATION BIS REPORTED PAX DIVERTED PAX TRUE MARKET PDEW

1 Las Vegas, NV 55,005 1,043 56,048 76.8

2 Denver, CO 42,783 1,617 44,400 60.8

3 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) 41,339 0 41,339 56.6

4 Orlando, FL (SFB) 29,100 0 29,100 39.9

5 Minneapolis, MN 23,870 3,056 26,926 36.9

6 Dallas, TX (DFW) 16,603 339 16,942 23.2

7 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 11,587 760 12,347 16.9

8 Seattle, WA (SEA) 10,608 1,113 11,721 16.1

9 Chicago, IL (ORD) 10,555 933 11,489 15.7

10 Washington, DC (DCA) 9,096 914 10,010 13.7

11 Houston, TX (IAH) 7,455 1,929 9,384 12.9

12 Los Angeles, CA 8,299 1,069 9,368 12.8

13 Orlando, FL (MCO) 7,519 1,041 8,560 11.7

14 San Francisco, CA 7,223 453 7,677 10.5

15 Atlanta, GA 6,217 1,106 7,324 10.0

16 Portland, OR 6,888 336 7,224 9.9

17 San Diego, CA 6,370 531 6,901 9.5

18 Salt Lake City, UT 6,091 656 6,747 9.2

19 New York, NY (LGA) 5,231 648 5,880 8.1

20 Nashville, TN 4,745 915 5,659 7.8

21 Kansas City, MO 5,105 113 5,217 7.1

22 San Antonio, TX 4,148 828 4,975 6.8

23 St. Louis, MO 4,240 725 4,965 6.8

24 Boston, MA 4,188 374 4,562 6.2

25 Detroit, MI 2,951 1,265 4,216 5.8

Top 25 destinations 337,219 21,762 358,981 491.8

Total domestic 477,776 38,689 516,465 707.5

Total international 29,536 1,975 31,511 43.2

All markets 507,312 40,664 547,976 750.7

� Top 25

destinations

account for

~2/3 of all travel

to/from the BIS

catchment area

� ~41,000 annual

travelers use an

alternate

airports

Originating

AirportRANK DESTINATION

ORIGIN AIRPORT%

TOTAL PAXBIS FAR MOT1 Las Vegas, NV 98 2 0 56,048

2 Denver, CO 96 3 1 44,400

3 Phoenix, AZ (AZA) 100 0 0 41,339

4 Orlando, FL (SFB) 100 0 0 29,100

5 Minneapolis, MN 89 7 5 26,926

6 Dallas, TX (DFW) 98 1 1 16,942

7 Phoenix, AZ (PHX) 94 5 1 12,347

8 Seattle, WA (SEA) 91 6 4 11,721

9 Chicago, IL (ORD) 92 7 1 11,489

10 Washington, DC (DCA) 91 8 1 10,010

11 Houston, TX (IAH) 79 9 12 9,384

12 Los Angeles, CA 89 9 2 9,368

13 Orlando, FL (MCO) 88 11 1 8,560

14 San Francisco, CA 94 4 2 7,677

15 Atlanta, GA 85 13 2 7,324

16 Portland, OR 95 4 1 7,224

17 San Diego, CA 92 7 0 6,901

18 Salt Lake City, UT 90 8 2 6,747

19 New York, NY (LGA) 89 7 4 5,880

20 Nashville, TN 84 12 4 5,659

21 Kansas City, MO 98 1 1 5,217

22 San Antonio, TX 83 15 1 4,975

23 St. Louis, MO 85 8 7 4,965

24 Boston, MA 92 8 0 4,562

25 Detroit, MI 70 24 6 4,216

Top 25 domestic 94 4 2 358,981

Total domestic 93 6 1 516,465

� Nonstop markets

had higher retention

rates.

� Just 6% of BIS

catchment area

travelers use FAR as

an alternate airport

� CAGR of 4.3% well above national averages

� Growth attributable to diversified economy

Enplanements Trend

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Year Ended June 30/Calendar Year

Enplanements (YE 6/30) MSA Population (CY)

Influencing Factors

AIRCRAFT

WEEKLY DEPARTURES

BIS FAR MOT

Regional jet

30-50 71 98 54

51-70 14 2 14

71-100 7 25 -

Mainline jet126-160 5 14 2

160+ 4 8 2

Total departures 101 147 72

% regional jet departures 91% 85% 94%

Total seats 6,460 10,452 4,310

Source: Diio Mi; Note: Sample week in June 2015

� Bismarck airfares $23 higher than

Fargo but $24 lower than Minot

� Slightly fewer weekly flights than

Fargo but significantly more than

� Service levels and future enplanements closely tied to the

energy sector

� RJ replacement will lead to larger aircraft per flight

� Additional frequency on strong single flight markets

� Seasonal shifts in capacity

Aviation Forecasts

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Historical Passenger Enplanements

Record snow falls followed by

widespread flooding in eastern North

Dakota disrupts state economy

Economic effects of oil

exploration boom arrive

Historical Passenger Enplanements

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Historical and Forecast Passenger Enplanements

Actual

Enplanement Per Population (E/P) Trend Line

(2005-2015)

Population

Regression

FAA TAF

(2016)

FAA TAF

(2015)

HISTORICAL

FORECAST

PERIOD

Historic and Forecast

Passenger Enplanements

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Single-Engine Multi-Engine Jet Helicopter Military

Note: Total includes civilian and military

SINGLE-

ENGINE

MULTI-

ENGINE JETHELICOPTER

MILITARY

Historical Based Aircraft Fleet Mix

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

YearHistorical 2016… Low Forecast High Forecast

HISTORICAL FORECAST

Historic and Future Based Aircraft

Mix of Based Aircraft Types Historical and Forecast

Aircraft Type 20152035 Forecast

Low High

Total (Civilian + Military) 117 133 150

CAGR -- 0.63% 1.25%

Civilian

Total Civilian 100 116 133

Single-Engine Piston 63 70 75

Twin-Engine Piston 15 13 15

Single-Engine Turboprop 2 3 3

Twin-Engine Turboprop 7 9 12

Jet - Small Cabin 8 14 17

Jet - Medium/Large Cabin 2 3 4

Helicopter 3 4 6

CAGR -- 0.73% 1.43%

Military - North Dakota Army National Guard

Total Military 17 17 17

Helicopter 16 16 16

Fixed-Wing 1 1 1

Based Aircraft Type

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Exhibit 2-8: Historic and Forecast Operations, 2005-2035

Historical…

Forecast…

FAA TAF

(2015)

FAA TAF

(2016)

HISTORICAL

FORECAST

PERIOD

Aircraft Operations

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

8,000,000

9,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Bismarck Air Cargo in Pounds, 2007-2015

All Cargo Cargo Carriers USPS and Passager Airline Cargo

Historic Air Cargo

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Historical and Forecast Air Cargo Volumes

Historical Data BaselineTrend Energy Boom Trend

Air Cargo Volumes

Critical Aircraft: Airbus A-320 SeriesAircraft Design Characteristics:

Aircraft Type: Narrowbody Transport

Approach Speed: ±134 Knots

Wingspan: ±150 to ±180

Tail height: 38.7'

Maximum Weight: 172,000 Pounds

Seating Configuration: 150 to 180 Passengers

Cockpit to Main Gear (CMG) 50.2'

Wheelbase 41.5'

Main Gear Width (MGW) 29.4'

Summary of Preferred ForecastsCategory 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

PASSENGER ENPLANEMENTS 259,734 296,308 341,525 386,743 431,961

TOTAL ANNUAL OPERATIONS 58,536 58,536 60,987 63,339 65,598

Itinerant Operations 41,012 42,497 43,911 45,731 47,559

Local Operations 15,697 16,039 17,076 17,735 18,039

BASED AIRCRAFT 117 120 124 128 133

Single-Engine Piston 65 66 67 68 70

Twin-Engine Piston 13 13 13 12 13

Turboprop 9 10 10 11 12

Jet 10 11 13 15 17

Helicopter 3 3 4 4 4

Military 17 17 17 17 17

AIR CARGO (Pounds) 7,932,840 6,914,516 7,379,439 7,875,623 8,405,170

Summary of Preferred

Aviation Forecasts

Comments & Questions� Open discussion

� Contact Airport

� Tim Thorsen tthorsen@bismarcknd.gov

� Contact the Project Manager

� Bart Gover bart.gover@meadhunt.com

� Bismarck Airport Master Plan Webpage is operational

� Will serve as an electronic data room for all project documents and information

� Accessed from BIS Airport Webpage

Next Steps� Hold Public Workshop No. 1 (March 16th 5-7PM)

� Incorporate public feedback

� Submit forecast to FAA for review/approval

� Identify future airfield capacity and facilities necessary to support growth over next 20-years

� Conduct airport alternatives analysis to address future facility development

� Identify a preferred alternative concept for development of Airport Layout Plans (ALP) package

� Hold SWG Meeting No. 3 (late summer 2016)

� Hold Public Meeting No. 2 (late summer 2016)

STUDY WORK GROUP MEETING No. 2 - Bismarck Airport, ND

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