……SUMMER FORECAST SUMMER FORECAST 2011….2011….

LA NINA IS DEAD ...WILL SUPER LA NINA IS DEAD ...WILL SUPER WET COOL PATTERN CONTINUE?WET COOL PATTERN CONTINUE?

MAJOR DROUGHT MAJOR DROUGHT FOR LOWER PLAINS and DEEP SOUTH FOR LOWER PLAINS and DEEP SOUTH

GDD DAYS ISSUES?GDD DAYS ISSUES?

RAINFALL LAST 60 DAYS.. and why the Mississippi Flooded

TEMPS LAST 60 DAYS..

SEASONAL FORECASTS.

Trick is finding which large scale atmospheric factors are going to be important for the Season and which ones are

NOT.

IF you focus on the wrong factors... your forecast will likely be pretty bad (“BUST”).

Be aware of the unexpected “ THE BLACK SWAN” event... where something changes in the middle of the season

It is NOT guess work

2 recent examples

EL NINO 2006-07... everyone forecasted El Nino to last into the Spring of 2006. But Xmas week the warm water collapsed … and Jan 15 to March 15

2007 turned extremely cold

La Nina Summer of 2010. Developed late Summer and Autumn = Summer featured No drought or even and moderate dry spells over Plains and Midwest...

ideal for Beans and Corn

SUMMER 2011 in CONUSMAIN FACTORS

La NINA is dead -PDO... a lot colder than Normal sea

surface temps from Alaska to Baja Drought areas over Plains Super wet areas over Tenn and Ohio Valley Warmer than Normal Sea surface temps in

Tropical Atlantic Ocean.

LA NINA 2010 - 11 Yes it is DEAD

LA NINA DEC 2010

FORECASTING LA NINA into the SPRING / SUMMER 2011

European model forecasts from the Key ENSO region 3.4. show NEUTRAL conditions through SUMMER 2011

FORECASTING LA NINA into the SPRING / SUMMER 2011

CFS model forecasts from the Key ENSO region 3.4. show NEUTRAL conditions through SUMMER 2011

PDO IS CLEARLY IN THE VERY COLDWATER PHASE or “NEGATIVE”

-PDO means trough on West coast & RIDGE over SE states. For Upper Plains & Midwest this makes for very active storm track & weather pattern but for Lower Plains / Deep South the -PDO means more dryness

SSTA's sea surface tempanomalies – DEC 19

SSTA's (sea surface temp anomalies) for APRIL 10. Note the increasing area of

cold water in the eastern pacific

SSTA's sea surface tempanomalies – MAY 25

Cold water in eastern Pacific (the -PDO) is still Increasing.

THIS SCHMATIC SHOW THE TYPICAL SPRING -PDO PATTERN

SEE HOW THE PATTERN

RESEMBLES LAST 60 DAYS!

12

As we move into the Summer Month

the Jet stream shifts North as it always

does... it is essentially the

same pattern... but it is getting

displace North

JUNE

JULY

Lets look at SOIL MOISTURE...

WHY? Soil moisture is the most overlooked aspect of seasonal

forecasting...

large areas of saturated and drought regions can and DO influence the

pattern

The 2/15/11 Drought map shows the largest & deepest drought for Mid FEB

since 2000

The LARGE areas of SUPER WET regions in close proximity of large areas of Super DRY DID lock in Mean storm track for most of the

SPRING and enhance Velocities in both Polar and Subtropical jet stream .... enhancing severe wx

threats for Midwest

Note the changes from THIS map -April 9- to the next one MAY 21

Note the changes from THIS map -April 9- to the next one MAY 21

What does this MEAN?

SHORT TERM TREND shows Super Wet areas over Upper Miss Valley / WCB has turned DRIER.

Super wet areas are over the ECB and the NE. Drought over Lower Plains is increasing N Rockies and western/ High Upper Plains ahs

started turning much Wetter

CAS MODEL

With such large areas of Drought and saturated/ super saturated areas in such close proximity to each

other it is worth taking a look at the CAS Model

The CAS Model uses actual soil moisture and recent rainfall trends to forecast next 4 months

It is updated every 3 days ...so forecasters can see the trends over the course of few weeks

CAS MODEL for JUNE

APRIL 11........... MAY 11...........MAY 25.

CAS MODEL for JULY

APRIL 11........... MAY 11...........MAY 25.

CAS MODEL for AUG

MAY 11.......................MAY 25.

• SUMMARYSUMMARY• LA NINA is dead. Soil Moisture and COLD LA NINA is dead. Soil Moisture and COLD

phase or -PDO will be in control this summerphase or -PDO will be in control this summer

• WCB / Upper Plains drying out… ECB is not. WCB / Upper Plains drying out… ECB is not. DROUGHT over Lower Plains is getting DROUGHT over Lower Plains is getting worseworse

• SUMMER of 2 extremes: ECB may have SUMMER of 2 extremes: ECB may have GDD problem.. WCB looks good BUT threat GDD problem.. WCB looks good BUT threat of HEAT from drought areas of Lower of HEAT from drought areas of Lower Plains comingPlains coming will be main concern for the WCB will be main concern for the WCB

• CANADA late start... again. CANADA late start... again.

OVERSEAS SUMMER 2011

DROUGHT WARNING FOR EUROPEsevere or Historic drought

increasingly Likely

DROUGHT WARNING FOR CHINAsignificant drought Likely

SSTA 10 April

SSTA's 25 MAY

Compare APR 10 to MAY 25... note the DRMATIC warming in Ne Atlantic off the

UK France and North Sea

EUROPE

RAINFALL RELATIVE TO NORMAL

FEB 1- APRIL 30

APRIL actual rainfall

APRIL rainfall relative

to Normal

APRIL temps relative to Normal ...note how warmest temps are where conditions

are driest

May 15-21

rainfall Temps

UKRAINERAINFALL RELATIVE TO NORMAL

CHINARAINFALL RELATIVE TO NORMAL

LARGE POOL OF COLD WATER OF NE COAST OF CHINA & OVER JAPAN... MEANS THAT MEAN TROUGH POSITION OF JET STREAM WILL BE OVER MANCHURIA WHICH MEANS COLD FRONTS DEVELOP TOO LATE FOR EASTERN CHINA - DRY PATTERN

SOIL MOSITURE ANONAMLIES FOR THE PAST 30 DAYS

WXRISK.COM gets raw data from CHINA... Most private AG weather forecast services

do NOT.

• SUMMARYSUMMARY• CHINA ...NCP and east central China very CHINA ...NCP and east central China very

DRY and DROUGHT threat is growing DRY and DROUGHT threat is growing

• EUROPE... DROUGHT is here... super EUROPE... DROUGHT is here... super warm SSTA in northeast Atlantic Ocean warm SSTA in northeast Atlantic Ocean MEANS strong ridge in jet stream... MEANS strong ridge in jet stream... keeping pattern DRY and increasingly keeping pattern DRY and increasingly warm … a BRUTAL hot summer warm … a BRUTAL hot summer (Al Gore will be happy) (Al Gore will be happy)

• UKRAINE looks barely “OK” .... right now UKRAINE looks barely “OK” .... right now not as bad as last Summer but NOT ideal... not as bad as last Summer but NOT ideal... dry and warmdry and warm

• WX FORECASTS from WXRISKWX FORECASTS from WXRISK

• US WX... 2 reports a day.. US WX... 2 reports a day.. ADVANCED level 4 reportsADVANCED level 4 reports

• OVERSEAS WX …OVERSEAS WX …

• CHINA WXCHINA WX

• EUROPE WXEUROPE WX

• 6-10 and 11-15 day6-10 and 11-15 day

• 30 DAY FORECAST 30 DAY FORECAST

http://www.facebook.com/WxRiskhttp://www.facebook.com/WxRisk column over at Agweb.comcolumn over at Agweb.com Pro FARMER Pro FARMER CITI group / London CITI group / London email: email: wxrisk@comcast.net 804 307 8070804 307 8070