Post on 04-Aug-2020
transcript
Swedish Broiler Production Seminar Existing and Future Challenges For Broiler
Production in North and South America
Dr. Paul Aho - Poultry Perspective February 2012
paulaho@paulaho.com
Storrs, Connecticut USA
Challenges and Opportunities
Recession and Slow Recovery
Higher Price of Energy than historical levels
Higher Price of Grain than historical levels
Opportunity - Chicken will do well in
competition with other meats
South America will grow much faster than
North America in chicken production
Challenge - Growth of World Economic Output –
% - World Bank to 2010
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
DevelopingWorldDeveloped
Challenge - Oil
(West Texas Intermediate)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
World Cost of Energy
in Trillions of 2010 Dollars
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Adapted from Andrew Lees “The Gathering Storm”
World Oil Supply / Demand–
Millions of Barrels / Day
82
84
86
88
90
92
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Supply
Demand
West Texas Intermediate Oil
in 2012 Dollars
0
25
50
75
100
125
2012 2017 2022 2027
8
U.S. Annual Average Corn Price
US Corn Use for Ethanol in MMT
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Ethanol Minus By-Product Percentage of the
US Corn Crop
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Corn - Ethanol Price CARD –Iowa State
Oil Corn
Metric
Corn
Bushel
$ 75 $ 204 $5.09
$ 90 $ 245 $6.12
$105 $ 286 $ 7.15
Argentine Corn Losses This Year
World Ending Stock of Corn
in Millions of Metric Tons
100
110
120
130
140
150
MMT 129 149 144 128 128
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Corn Production USA /
Non USA - MMT
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000-
2001
2002-
2003
2004-
2005
2006-
2007
2008-
2009
2010-
2011
2012-
2013
2014-
2015
Non USA
USA
Average Price of Corn in Chicago -
$/Ton by Crop Year – 2012 $
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2011-
2012
2016-
2017
2021-
2022
2026-
2027
16
U.S. Average Soybean Price
Soybean Production US /
Argentina & Brazil - MMT
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000
-200
1
2001
-200
2
2002
-200
3
2003
-200
4
2004
-200
5
2005
-200
6
2006
-200
7
2007
-200
8
2008
-200
9
2009
-201
0
2010
-201
1
2011
-201
2
2012
-201
3
2013
-201
4
ARG-BRA
USA
World Ending Stock of Soybeans in
Millions of Metric Tons
20
30
40
50
60
70
MMT 63 53 43 60 69 63
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average Price of SBM in Chicago -
$/Ton by Crop Year – 2012 $
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2011-
2012
2016-
2017
2021-
2022
2026-
2027
20
Feed Cost US cents per live Kilo
Chicken Beef
2006 33 100
2012 66 200
US Per Capita Consumption of Beef
in Kilos - USDA
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
US Per Capita Consumption of
Young Chicken in Kilos - USDA
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lower USA Chicken
Consumption
Recession plays an important role
Higher input costs
More Decline in Foodservice than Retail
Aging Population eats less meat
Higher Leg Quarter Prices
Recession Helped increase demand
Lower Domestic Supply of Leg Quarters
Export Demand is strong despite Russia
Leg Quarter Price Cents Per Kilo
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lower Deboned Breast Price
Supply overshot Demand
Price was depressed in 2011, 4
bankruptcies in the chicken industry
Necessary Rebound in 2012
Deboned Breast - Cents/lb
225
250
275
300
325
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
World Production of Chicken Meat
1990-2030
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2000 2010 2020
29
Per Capita Consumption of Meat & Eggs
7,000,000,000 people in 2010
43 Kg per capita
8,000,000,000 people in 2030
50 Kg per capita
Chicken & Eggs are more Sustainable
To Produce One Kilo
Beef 6.0 kg of grain (Feedlot)
Pork 3.0 kg of grain
Eggs 2.0 kg of grain
Chicken 2.0 kg of grain
Beef 0.0 kg of grain grass fed
31
Chicken Genetics – World Average
Year Weight Kg FCR Mortality Age
1925 1.0 4.7 18 112
1950 1.3 3.4 8 74
1975 1.7 2.3 6 56
2000 2.1 1.9 5 42
2025 2.5 1.5 4 35
220
2
2012
Consumption
Per Capita in 2030
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Pork
Chicken
Eggs
Beef
Source: USDA to 2010
34
Chicken Production MMT and Per Capita
Production in Kg 2010 & 2020- MMT
2010 Production
Per Capita 2020 Production
Per Capita
Latin Am. 21 34 31 45
USA 16 51 18 53
China 12 9 18 13
EU-27 10 20 12 24
2010 -2020
The Decade of Latin America
Accelerating economic growth
More Political stability
Relatively low cost of feed and labor
Better Financial stability
Both Exports and Domestic Sales
Accelerating GDP Growth
Latin America
Decade Average GDP Growth
1980 – “The Lost Decade” -0,3
1990 1,4
2000 2,5
2010 – “The Latin
American Decade”
3,0
Domestic Consumption
2010 & 2020
2010 2020
Latin America 17 25
Brazil 8 11
United States 13 14
World 80 100
Brazil
100 in 2002
155 in 2012
USA
135 in 2002
170 in 2012
Eviscerated Production Cost
US Cents per kilo
Exports % of Total
World Production
5% 1990
10% 2010
14% 2030
World Trade in Chicken - MMT
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 2000 2010 2020
Exports
2010 & 2020
2010 2020
Latin America 4.0 6.0
United States 3.1 4.0
Brazil 3,6 5,0
World 8,6 15,0
Conclusion
Long Term High Prices for Oil and Grain
Lower grain prices in 2013-2014
2010-2020 - Decade of Latin America in Poultry
Growth in North America Slows