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transcript
Thinking in systems, system in
thinking
Masterclass systems thinking II
Friday Januar 29th 2010
Drs J. Lelie CPF
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Introductions
• On entry:– Name, – What do you do, – What is for you an example of a system
• Introduce yourself and ellaborate on your example
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Systemtheories are languages
• Systems: vague, complex, abstract
• No common language
• Every Masterclass in this series is a ‘language’
• Paradox: the more words you have, the bigger the confusion
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Masterclasses
• Sociotechnique• Systems Thinking• Policy Directing• …
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1. This meeting
• Goal: -- -(less) questions• Balancing cycle
– Questions – + (more) explanation
– Explanation – - questions
• Growth cycle– Explanation –+ exercise– Exercise –+ questions
• Limit– Time limits exercises
question
goal -
explanation
+
-
time-
exercise
+
+
== time delay
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1.1 Your questions
• What questions do you have on Systems Thinking, Thinking in Systems?– Write down your questions– What is your most important one– Please take care of your question
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1.2 System Archetypes
• System consists is set of elements with relations• Archetype is a pattern of elements and relations,
a kind of story• System archetypes combine stabilizing and
growing relations with a certain pattern over time• Show structure, mental models and effective
interventions• Learning to discern structures
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1.3 History
• 1950s: Jay Forrester, Massachusetts Institute of Technology: computer simulations of effects from … before implementation.
• 1960s: Club of Rome: limits to growth.• 1980s Michael Goodman: systems archetypes,
for companies, at Innovation Associates, foundes by Peter Senge.
• 1990’s Peter Senge’s The Fifth Discipline: success to the succesful
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1.4.1 Natural systems
• Every system tends to grow to an equilibrium– Growth meets limits– Shrinking leads to disappearance
• Dynamical equilibrium between (sub)systems• Thermo dynamical equilibrium
– Isolated systems: in due time pressure and temperature difference disappear.
– Control: system in equilibrium no spontaneous changes
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1.4.2 equilibrium
• 1887: ‘Is our solar system stable?’– Poincaré: no! unpredictable
• 1963: Edward Lorenz (MIT)– Attractorfields: patterns in weather en
populations– systems show (quasi) stabile behaviour
• 1971: strange attractors– systems become always turbulent– even chaos has its rules
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1.5.1 Feedback ‘classic’
Primairy process III
Primairy process II
Primairy process I
Change input (re)organise, standardise measure output
evaluateanalyse
Vision, mission, strategy
NORMS
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1.5.2 Feedback in system thinking
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2. Causal relations and systems
• Example– Causale relations– Cycli– Connections archetype
• Exercise– Problem desrciption– Story devlopement– Drawings
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2.1.1 Example
• I make about, 2 to 5 typing errors in a presentation
• I make mistakes when I’m nervous• As I become more nervous, I make more
mistakes • If I could relax, I would make less
mistakes
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Nervousness
2.2.2 Causal diagrams
-
+
+
+Number of mistakes
Nervousness
ExercisesIn relaxation
Makes me (more)
Making (more)
Makes me (less)
Need for
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2.2.3 Example (cont.)
• The result of exercises takes time to show itself.
• To prevent mistakes, somebody will check and correct my work
• However that makes me more nervous, so i mkae more mistekase
• Also: quality control will try to show it is necessary and look for (more) mistakes
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2.2.4 Adding it
-
++
+Mistakes
Nervousness
ExercisesIn relaxation
QualityControl
+
-
+
Takes time
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2.2.5 Archetype: shifting the blame
Number of errors
Norm: no errors
Quality control
nervousness
Training
+
-
-
+
-
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2.3 Exercise
1. Take one of your concerns2. Story of causale relations 3. Make cycles (loops), look for time delays4. Destill archetypes5. Propose Interventions
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2.3.1 Procedure causal relations
• Tell you story: – What is the problem, what gave rise, what
emotion of feeling (concrete)?– What is the motion now (less, more)?– What are effects? What are causes?– Movement of effects + (less less) of -
(less more)?– Others effects (or causes).– Close cycle.
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2.3.1 Notes on problem
• Problem description:– Difference between actual situation (reality)
and desired (expected) (charged negatively)– Chronic problem, comes and goes– Tried and tried again to solve– Based on facts: S.M.A.R.T.– No solution that don’t work! – Not reduction of tension, emotions or feelings – No blaming (if only party x would ….)
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2.3.1 Notes on story
• Story line– What effects are cause by problem ? – What causes the problem …?– Vijf times why?
• Why is 1 problem? Because of 2• Why is 2 problem? Because of 3 or 4 …..
– Close causes and effects• Look for time delays: not immediately evident
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• Cycli– coupling: adding + ( ) reducing - ( )– times delays
• What are direct effects? What takes time?
– Vermenigvuldig koppelingen en bepaal• Reïnforcing • Balancing
2.2.2 Notes on cycli
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2.2.2 Tell story
• Write elements on Post-It• Tell story to neutral listener, while drawing
arrows• Questions and discussions• Rearrange• Look for time delays• Listen carefully to the hidden messages
on archetype
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2.2.3 Archetypes
• Listen to what has been said– Sometimes the archetypes are mentioned– Sometimes story needs editting to make it fit– Look for archetype in literature
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Unintended Consequences
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Accidental Adversaries
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Equilibrium
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Goal adjustment
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Escalation (symmetry)
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Growth and underinvestment
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Shifting the burden
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Success to the successful
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Tragedy of commons
System of archetypes
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3. Connections through processes
• 4C-model: connection between – Communicating– Confiding (trusting)– Committing– Co-operating
• 4C-model is high level model• The archetypes hide in the
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3.1 Trust
InventoryLead times
-
+
-
committing++ co-operating
++
confiding communicating
++
++
Archetypes- Shifting burden- Addicton - success to the succesful-…
3.2 4C-model
JIT-cycle
MRP-cycle
TQM-cycle
TOC-cycle
committing++ co-operating
++
confiding communicating
++
++
Inventorylead times
-
+
-
-
Expenses
Tasks
+
-+
Resources
+
Throughput
+
Agreements
Deliveryreliability
+
+ +
© (1996 – 2010) mind@work
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4. Example
• Sweet water infrastructure The Netherlands
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5. Summary
• Systems thinking is a language for speaking in cycles
• System archetyps are titles for ‘never ending stories’.
• System Thinking doesn’t solve problems, it makes it just better to bear
• Thank you
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More information
• http://www.systems-thinking.org/index.htm• http://www.pegasuscom.com/• Donella H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems: A Primer,
(2008)• P. Senge, The Fifth Discipline: The art and practice of
the learning organization (1990)• .. e.a. The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and
Tools for Building a Learning Organization (1994)