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Systems research and modelling
in Agri-Food research
Dr. Martin Kropff, CIMMYT Director General
Prof. Wageningen University
Berlin, 17 March 2016
Thank you to Kai Sonder, Matthew Reynolds, Bruno Gerard, Isaiah Nyagumbo,
Kindie Tesfaye, Balwinder Singh, Peter Carberry, V Valdez, A. Jarvis, Rao, …
…This presentation…
• AgriFood central to all challenges
• Developments in the CGIAR
• Systems research and modelling in AgriFood
• Model development vs applications
• Future needs and opportunities: an invitation!
The 9 Billion Person Question
AgriFood systems
Food security
Climate change
Diseases
Urbanization
Resources
Diets
More Less
Better
Food System Shocks
Ug99 (windborn)
Lloyds Emerging Risk Report – 2015
Price
increase
s
x4
x5
Stock market
losses
Food riots
Humanitarian
crisis
Human cost
10% in EU
5% in US
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Soybean
7%
10%
11%
Global production
losses
7%
Impacts
Lloyds workfloor: Global insurance:
managing risk
CIMMYT Around the World Key Office
Field Station
Project
China
Zimbabwe
Kenya
Ethiopia
Mexico, HQ
Guatemala
Colombia
Kazakhstan Iran
Turkey
Bangladesh
Nepal
India Pakistan
Afghanistan
Impact: Spring bread wheat releases by region and
origin 1994-2014: Annual return of 2-5 billion $
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
China EU and otherhigh income
countries
FormerSoviet Union
Countries
LatinAmerica
South Asia Sub-SaharanAfrica
West Asiaand North
Africa
World
Pe
rce
nta
ge o
f re
leas
es
(%)
Direct CGIARlines
CGIAR parent
CGIARancestry
Non-CGIAR
Unknownvarieties
Unknown Varieties Non-CGIAR parents CGIAR Ancestry CGIAR Parent CGIAR Line
Source: Lantican et al., 2015
Working Within Agri-food Systems Site integration
AFS: From germplasm-breeding-sustainable intensification to value chains
Modeling 1980’s
data in
search of
a system
Prof. C.T. de Wit (1924-1993));
My Dream 25 Years Ago
Today:
Progress
Research tool?
Applications? +
scaling up
DSS
Capacity/Training? -
SYSTEMS APPROACHES AND CROP MODELLING IN AGRIFOOD RESEARCH
Research tool
analysing data
hypothesis generation
study emerging behaviour
SI and Breeding
Value chains
Applications
Decision support
Yield Gap Analysis
Climate change regional scenario studies
Assisting breeding GxExM
Capacity building ???
Examples systems research: Was there a yield decline? Model as reference
S. hamata and C -
C. cajan C ++
in rice
Akanvou, Kropff, Bastiaans
Examples systems research: Understanding rice-legume relay cropping
Shenggen Fan, October 2013
Examples systems research: Rice-legume relay cropping
Introduction more competitive variety:
• later introduction
• faster growth after removal rice
• better use water reserves
Ecophysiological model INTERCOM:
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0.4
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1.0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
Ric
e g
rain
yie
ld lo
ss
Legume biomass (t ha-1)
4 DARS
8 DARS
12 DARS
16 DARS
20 DARS
24 DARS
28 DARS
32 DARS
C. cajan in V4
C. cajan in Wab56-50
S. hamata in Wab56-50
S. hamata
in V4
Examples systems research:
Methane emissions in rice
Serendipity
v d Gon, Kropff,
v Breemen, PNAS
y = -61x + 558
R2
= 0.94
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 2 4 6 8 10Yield (t/ha)
Seasonal C
H4 e
mis
sio
n (
kg C
H4
-C / h
a)
Dry season
Wet season
Linear WS and DS
y = -61x + 558
R2
= 0.94
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 2 4 6 8 10Yield (t/ha)
Seasonal C
H4 e
mis
sio
n (
kg C
H4
-C / h
a)
Dry season
Wet season
Linear WS and DS
Sink limitation was
process in the model…
Otherwise???.
Examples systems research:
Scenario analysis with APSIM in Bangladesh CIMMYT-CSIRO incl. training!
Examine on farm and on station trials in terms of:
– Changing from conventional to conservation agriculture (water
conservation)
– Increasing mechanisation (reducing labour for production)
– Comparing different rabi crops: e.g. boro vs. maize vs. wheat vs. lentil
– Examining the feasibility of including a third crop between rabi and kharif
Examples systems research
Using APSIM to optimise cropping
systems in Cooch Behar
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Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Avera
ge r
ain
fall
(mm
)
Examples systems research
Scenario analysis with APSIM in Bangladesh
STARS: Model for irrigation scheduling in
the Delta region of Bangladesh
Ground Cover (%) from remote
sensing
Daily Weather
• Tmax
• Tmin
• Solar
radiation
• Precipitation
Forecasted
irrigation need
(yes/no)
Water table depth
MODEL
Example of small scale spatial
variability measured on farmers fields
in Bangladesh Dry Wet Intermediate
Dry
Dry
Wet
Wet
Intermediate
Intermediate
Examples systems research
Groundnut pigeonpea intercrop
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2.01
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Syst
em
LER
, Re
lati
ve y
ield
to
tal
Year
Md pigeonpea intercrop
Sole crops Yield LER iPnMdPp RYT iPnMdPp
(ICRISAT) Rao Nageswara, Meinke and Kropff, 2016 APSIM
Examples systems research:
Cassman and van Ittersum et al
Weather based scheme since
2007operational since 2007
• 15 million farmers covered
• 67 crops covered
• Subsidized; linked to credit
Yet dissatisfied stakeholders
• Farmers due to poor weather
triggers for yield loss estimates
• Industry due to limited profits
• Government due to subsidy load
Examples systems research:
Crop insurance in India: Reaching the Unreached
Examples systems research
Improvement by using crop models and optimization Farmer’s satisfaction with new rainfall triggers: Example from
Maharashtra, India
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1
2
3
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7
Paddy Pearl Millet Cotton SoybeanFarm
er'
s S
ati
sfa
cti
on
In
dex
Current Index New Index
More than a million farmers used this product in 2015 in one crop season alone
Systems research: Examples
Modelling at different scales? • Multi-scale and
• Multi-dimensional analysis
Global
Continental
National
Regional
Farm
Field
Global
Continental
National
Regional
Farm
Field
Ewert et al., 2006
Economic
Social
Natural Institutional
Economic
Social
Natural Institutional
Example systems approaches
Using crop models to look at crop yields
under future climate (CIAT)
Gourdji et al. (in prep.)
Percent change in yields by 2030s and RCP4.5
Modelling: a New Era 2016’s
data in
search of
a system
Examples Systems research:
Breeding predicting G x E x M
Genotype (QTL)
Physiological
trait
Eco-
physiological
model
Yield
G x E x M
Yin, Kropff, Stam 2004, TIPS
FUTURE NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES: AN INVITATION
Ravi Singh and Norman Borlaugh
Ravi Singh CIMMYT:
Can modellers explain and
help identifying the parents
for crosses
Targeting G to E and M
Data: 700 lines x 70 locations
CIMMYT operates a global breeding
platform
2001
2008
2002
2007
1999
2011
2006
1998
2010
1987 2000
1990
2009
2004
2003 1979
1996
1990
1982
1987
1984
1989
1988 1994
1985
1980 1991
1983
1986
1981
1993
1992
2013
2012
2014
2015
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
7.5 8.5 9.5 10.5 11.5 12.5Wh
eat
yie
ld Y
aq
ui V
alley (
To
n/H
a)
Adapting to Climate Change: Heat Tolerant Wheats prove their Value in Farmers’ Fields in Mexico:
Explain?
1C increase = 700 Kg lower yield
January-April Average min. Temperature C
Y=11.55 – 0.65 X R2=0.75
Source: H.-J. Braun, I. Ortiz-Monasterio CIMMYT
CIRNO
CIMMYT and others in The CGIAR:
A dream collaboration for modellers • 10000 people studying crops worldwide!!!
• Modelling expertise scattered: data in search of modellers
• G x E x M: Models should be a standard tool next to statistical models (improving G component)
• Large multilocation datasets: all sorts of treatments: agronomy-modelling
• Model improvements
• Platform big data: Community of Practice modellers
• Understanding the model principles!!! Training
• Modeling in the value chain
…Conclusion… • AgriFood central to all challenges
• Modelling has to become a standard tool in AgRes
• A revival with new approaches and open innovations?
• The CGIAR : a dream for modellers
• Capacity building: understanding the models (no misuse)
• An invitation! Data in search of models 2016!
• New intensive collaboration with modelling groups
• Enhancing impact of science!
Diego Rivera Tlatelolco Market Mural
Thank you
for your
interest!