T. W. Lanzatella Distinguished Engineer VERITAS Product ... · 10 Year Technology Forecast for...

transcript

10 Year Technology Forecast for VERITAST. W. LanzatellaDistinguished EngineerVERITAS Product Operations

Copyright VERITAS Software Corporation 2003

Purpose• 5-10 year forecast of technology trends

– Scope: computers, data and networking– Equal weight: hardware and software

• Utility– A Shared vision even without agreement is useful– Context for tactical behavior

• Methodology– Web, experts, papers, other company forecasts– Expected error rates are high

• This talk is a statement of opinion

Preview: Disruptive Themes

• General transition:– Industrial to information economy

• Micrified systems and sensors• Increasing network speeds• Packaging innovations for servers and storage• Storage service migration to hardware• Statistical behavior of servers and storage

Technology Metafactors

• Economic backdrop– Governs funding

• Public Policy– High-order social agenda(s)– Science (NSF/NIH)– Mission critical (DOE/DOD)

• Large corporate interests• Standards

– Counteract balkanization

Economic Setting

NON-RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT:SOFTWARE

Ann%Chg

INFORMATION PROCESSING EQUIPMENT AND SOFTWARE Ann%Chg

COINCIDENT INDICATOR*102102

101101

100100

NON-RESIDENTIAL FIXED INVESTMENT:Ann%

Chg10105500

-5-5-10-10-15-15

Ann%Chg

20 2015 1510 105 50 0

98 2000 0288 90 92 94 96* SOURCE: THE CONFERENCE BOARD. SHOWN AS A DEVIATION FROM TREND.

Public Policy Issues• Digital rights

– Copyright & ownership– Copy protection

• Intellectual property awareness

– Patent litigation• Privacy & Security

– NSF may receive 4x budget for security ($250M by 2007)

– Credit card fraud -$17B/year

• Public access– Internet usage– Open source

• Corporate governance– Data retention– Audit trails

• Global demographics– No wired infrastructure– IPv6

Conflicts for Technology Advance

• Chicken/egg problem– Technology improvement is human nature

• Entails purposeful, speculative development – cool but brittle– Commerce targets commodity infrastructure

• Invisible, never broken

• New technology creates stress– Different quarters/different tolerance– Monetary incentive

• Drives adoption task to public sector– Defined mission of NSF/DOE…

What Does NSF Think?

• Atkins Report (January, 2003)– Advanced Cyberinfrastructure Proposal

• ~10 year vision– Justify $1B NSF investment– Assume rampant advance at component level/data volumes– Emphasize software

• .1 – 1 Pflop systems, PHz networks, PB databases– 106 CPUs, (not femtosecond clock)– Sharable across community

• Plan for major growth in: – Computational provisioning/distributed data/digital libraries

Public Sector Directional Changes

• New initiatives– Change from buying to linking iron

• Broaden access by researchers

• Grids and digital libraries already established– ~20 functional grids– ~10 major libraries

• Europe/Japan out-spending US• Multinational effort:

– Grid interoperability/unification

Server Infrastructure - Grids• Clustered and IP-connected servers

– Grid = resource federation for virtual organizations– Exceed limitations of DCE, CORBA, Enterprise Java

• Origins– Inexpensive analog to massively parallel systems

• HPC applications, SETI@home• Movement seeking commercial applications

– Aggregate enterprise resources– Establish framework:

• Work submission and flow, resource allocation– Globus toolkit (www.globus.org)– IBM supplying grid services for Sony game network

• Data grids pose numerous problems – Wide-area dist. file systems, replication strategies

“Natural” Laws

• Moore’s Law– Price/performance halves every 12-18 months

• Metcalf’s Law– Value of network increases as (# of users)2

• Guilder’s Law– Bandwidth doubles every 12-18 months

• Adam Smith’s Law– Commoditization leads to lower costs, tighter margins

• Interchangeability

Trends – Transistor Density

• Moore’s Law – no interrupt within 10 years• Projected densities

– .5G transistors/chip in 2003 (Madison) – 1G transistors/chip 2005 (Deerfield)– 16G transistors/chip by 2013

• Emerging factors: atomic dimensions/statistical behavior• Heat!

• Drives adoption of ‘Spintronics’• Alter/detect electron spin state• Spin-polarized currents – demands on-chip optical

Trends – Magnetic Media• Doubling every 16 months

– 120Gb (3.5”) -> 10TB (3.5”) by 2013• Superparamagnetic limit (SPL) 20-40 Gb/in2

• Current devices ~10Gb/in2

• Vertical recording moves SPL to 250 Gb/in2

• Extraordinary magnetoresistance– Alter/detect electron orbitals– Gains 40x

• Tiny regions increase error rates– Temperature distortion ~r4

– Flutter distortion ~r5

– Drives radius smaller

Alternatives to Disk

• Solid state storage – Flash memory– Ferro-electric (FeRAM)– Magnetic RAM (MRAM)– Polymer– Chalcogenic/Ovonic materials– Organics (protein, DNA)

• Non-rotating magnetic media– MEMS

• Small-format arrays (multiple disks in one package)• Conclusion: storage hierarchies (memory/MEMS/disk)

Perceived Rates of Change• Hardware components

– Materials science, fabrication is leaping ahead

• E.g., holographic media, carbon nano-tubes,

• Hardware systems (boards)– Must aggregate standard

components• E.g., SCSI controllers, disk drives

• Software systems– Higher level of aggregation– E.g., OS, backup, distributed data– Conflict: enduring utility vs. changing

requirements

New Products

Components

Hardware Systems

Software

Micrified of Systems• Tiny as application enabler

– Adjunct to smaller/cheaper cycle– Good science– Spans systems to devices– Type, talk, see -> feeling + thinking

• Embedded is 98% of CPU population– 70 embedded processors in BMW 5-series

• Micro-systems– Berkeley intelligent dust – 1mm3 (cpu, mem., battery, WiFi)

• Microelectricmechanical systems (MEMS)• Sensors/probes, springs, sleds, diaphragms

• Software push: peer-to-peer + TinyOS

MEMS Examples• Micron-scale components

(10-6 M)• Applications:

– Gyroscopes– Accelerometers– Micro-mirror arrays for

LCD projectors– Optical switches

• CMU developing– Mems storage– Mems sonic arrays

• IBM– Millipede 6 MEMS probe

tips in CMU storage device 100 µm

Networks• A broad class of technologies

– Applications: trunks, areas(xANs), last miles– Media: optical fiber, cell, cable, WiFi

• Trunks - Optical fiber speeds– 40 GHz in common use/1.6 THz (experimental deployments)– 11 THz in lab

• Areas - NIC rates– Shared physical layer with Fibre Channel– 2 Gbps in common use/10 Gbps parts available– 100 Gbps in lab

• Last mile – diverse + complex– Clouded by business and regulation– Cell to 1Mbps, WiFi to 150 Mbps, cable to 1Gz

• Demand sectors: science, consumer, commercial

Bandwidth (Required vs. Available)Required Streaming Bandwidth vs. Available

0.00001

0.0001

2GDial

FrameR

elay(l

Frac T

1 (low

)GPRSISDN

Satellite

3G (lo

Cable (lo

ADSL (low

igh) T1

FrameR

elay (

(typic

ffecti

ADSL (hig

USB 1.1

(effec

4G (lo

E T33.5

(Full C

(max)ISA

4G (ty

pical)

ESCONOC-3

USB 2.0 (

PCI (33)

SCSI160

GigESATA

SCSI320

PCI 64b

SA SCSI 300

OC-48NGIO

SA SCSI 600

SCSI640

SA SCSI 120

0OC-19

Modula

tor (C

n)OC-768

Modula

tor (TRW)

0.00001

0.0001

100Stereo MP3

(comp)Tivo (comp) DVD (comp) DVD MiniDV HD-DVD NTSC LoRes HD HiRes HD Cinema HD Archive Virtual

Presence

Optimal Bandwidth Gb/sRequired Bandwidth (Gb/s)

Protocol Trends

µPMemoryµP

MemoryµP

Memory

µPMemoryµP

MemoryµP

Memory

µPMemoryµP

MemoryµP

Memory

µPMemoryµP

MemoryµP

Memory

Server Farm

PCI-X, Infiniband

Fibre Channel

µPMemoryµP

MemoryµP

Memory

µPMemoryµP

MemoryµP

Memory

µPMemoryµP

MemoryµP

Memory

µPMemoryµP

MemoryµP

Memory

Server Farm

PCI-X, Infiniband

Fibre Channel

• Three interconnects:– Internal bus– Storage– Internet

• Speeds evolving to 10Gbps– Amplify bottlenecks

• Large forces driving to IP– But service levels enable

provisioning – not part of IP• There is hope for Infiniband

• NIC issues – TOE offload– Consider RDMA

• VIA, IB – link • RDMAP/DDP – transport

East Coast

Light signal 20ms + switching time

West Coast

Modularity• Novel packaging of aggregated technology

– Sealed, proximity-based connectivity• Inductive connections to cold-plate

Double as back plane– Server model to follow disk– Drives to:

• Self-revealing devices • Proxy services and peer-to-peer

• High populations demand statistical behavior– Long-theorized, now practical– Theme – autonomic computing

• End affect is profound– Ultimate spongy resource – merely degrades– Qualitative shift in administration philosophy

Media - Functional Stratification• IDC – array business =>

$60B by 2006• Economics

– Memory challenges disk– Disk challenges tape– Absolute cost vs cost of

being down• Tape useful as archive

– Access rates out of sync with most business costs

• Single purpose platforms challenge server analogs

Expensive, fast disk

Cheap, slow disk

Tape Emulators

Flash Disk

Arrays

Content Addressible

Storage

ATA Arrays

MemoryFile system i/f

Low-cost Memory LUN i/f

Array Systems Absorb Services

• Autonomic technology within arrays• Broader/deeper/smarter

– Expandable designs moving up the application stack– Export 10,000 provisioned LUNs– Standardized imaging services + mgt software

• Replication, frozen image, protection, security

• Myriad data distribution opportunities– Enterprise name spaces within modular packaging– IBM project - Collaborative Intelligent Bricks

• File serving supplants LUN provisioning– Fueled by modular (multi-headed) servers

Distributed Data – Object Storage• Scalability revisited

– Not a new idea – server as bottleneck• store-and-forward architecture• Pilots: NFS/RDMA, DAFS

Helps only metadata exchanges• Need storage unit as smart peer

• Object Storage Device• Proxy name service

Dispenses access rights to clients• Block service in storage unit

• Lustre file system is pilot– DOE ASCI requires 40GBps

NFS Server

NFS Client

NFS ClientBlock

Service

NFS Name

Service

All data for a file associated with disk is an

object

Block Service

Datanomic Storage Environments

• Public sector initiative re object storage– Growing industry affiliation

• Applications of object storage devices– Abstraction merges files with volumes– Hinting, QoS (network aware delivery)– Replication, locality– Metadata– Active storage – local computation

• Needs critical evaluation

Commercial Advances• Commercial vision as far-reaching as scientific vision• Shifting business models

– Web services driven by network speeds– Trading relationships for b2b– Revived xSPs

• Complexity threatens IT spending– Technology advances outpacing simplification– Drives to outsourced services

• Security still a challenge• Audio/visual data sources push software tooling

– Unstructured data-mining– Casting for metadata standards

Summary• Buoyant investment climate over next 10 years• Public sector is future-minded on infrastructure• Expanding depth and detail in sensing realm

– 50:1 embedded vs server – increasing– Tiny systems drive peer-to-peer

• Network speeds scaling upwards– Business cycle clouds last mile

• Provocateur - wireless– New server bottlenecks at 10Gbps

• Server provisioning – new and evolving• Storage adjusting to IP and modular packaging

Conclusions on 10 Year Horizon• Convergence to IP for everything is possible

– System area networks storage area networks– Even Infiniband could run over IP

• Distributed data demands will rise significantly– Many CPUs need to touch data– Bottlenecks will force decisions on RDMA apps

• Drive experiments pushing FS/VM to arrays• Could induce big changes to NFS/CIFS/HTTP

• Full service arrays engulf storage services– Commodity, appliance-based data imaging– Arrays challenge server-based services– Demands new paradigms in management services

Extras

T. W. Lanzatella Distinguished Engineer VERITAS Product ... · 10 Year Technology Forecast for...

Documents