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Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
30th June 2014 Page 1 © 2014 Agilent Technologies
Taking 5G from
vision to reality
Moray Rumney
Strategic Business Development
30th June 2014
The 6th Future of Wireless International Conference
Changing the World with Wireless
30th June & 1st July 2014, The Møller Centre, Cambridge
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
30th June 2014 Page 2 © 2014 Agilent Technologies
In 1999 Agilent split off from Hewlett-Packard
In Nov 2014 the electronic measurement group of Agilent will
split off to become
The remainder fo Agilent will continue as a life sciences
company
Agilent to become two independent
companies
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
30th June 2014 Page 3 © 2014 Agilent Technologies
Abstract
The demands for innovation and future wireless connectivity
show no signs of abating. As a consequence, the expectations
for 5G - the next anticipated leap in wireless connectivity – are
quite staggering. This talk will examine the drivers for 5G and
take a deeper look at some of the potential new technologies
being researched with a view to understanding the many
dimensions, opportunities and contentions that 5G represents at
this early phase of its development. By drawing on the
experience gained from previous generations, the talk will
conclude with possible scenarios for what the wireless
ecosystem might look like by 2020.
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
30th June 2014 Page 4 © 2014 Agilent Technologies
Agenda
1. Review of major innovations in wireless communications
2. UMTS long term evolution
3. The motivation and vision for 5G
4. 5G technical assumptions
5. Six predictions for broadband wireless 2020
6. Summary
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
30th June 2014 Page 5 © 2014 Agilent Technologies
What have been the key innovations in
wireless communications to date?
GSM goes
global!
2G - 1993
Mobile voice
1G -1983
WLAN meets
the iPhone
2.75G - 2007 3.5 G - 2006
HSPA overtakes
EDGE
And looking forwards:
5G – 2020: The perception of infinite capacity anywhere!
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TD-SCDMA (China)
802.16e (Mobile WiMAX)
WiBRO (Korea)
802.16d (Fixed WiMAX)
Wireless: 1990 to beyond 2020 GSM
(Europe) IS-136
(US TDMA) PDC
(Japan) IS-95A
(US CDMA)
HSCSD GPRS iMODE IS-95B (US CDMA)
W-CDMA (FDD & TDD)
E-GPRS (EDGE)
HSDPA HSUPA
EDGE Evolution
1x EV-DO 0 A B
HSPA+ / E-HSPA
LTE (R8/9 FDD/TDD)
LTE-Adv. (R10 and beyond)
802.16m / WiMAX2
802.11h/n
802.11ac
cdma2000 (1x RTT)
802.11a/g
802.11b 2G
2.5G
3G
3.5G
3.9G
4G
Market evolution Technology evolution
Inc
rea
sin
g e
fficie
nc
y, ba
nd
wid
th a
nd
da
ta ra
tes
© 2012 Agilent Technologies
5G 802.11ax
802.11ad
Cellular W-LAN
?
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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UMTS Long Term Evolution
1999
2015
Release Stage 3: Core
specs complete Main feature of Release
Rel-99 March 2000 UMTS 3.84 Mcps (W-CDMA FDD & TDD)
Rel-4 March 2001 1.28 Mcps TDD (aka TD-SCDMA)
Rel-5 June 2002 HSDPA
Rel-6 March 2005 HSUPA (E-DCH)
Rel-7 Dec 2007 HSPA+ (64QAM DL, MIMO, 16QAM UL). LTE & SAE Feasibility
Study, Edge Evolution
Rel-8 Dec 2008
LTE Work item – OFDMA air interface
SAE Work item – New IP core network
UMTS Femtocells, Dual Carrier HSDPA
Rel-9 Dec 2009
Multi-standard Radio (MSR), Dual Carrier HSUPA, Dual Band
HSDPA, SON, LTE Femtocells (HeNB)
LTE-Advanced feasibility study, MBSFN
Rel-10 March 2011 LTE-Advanced (4G) work item, CoMP Study
Four carrier HSDPA
Rel-11 Sept 2012 CoMP, eDL MIMO, eCA, MIMO OTA, HSUPA TxD & 64QAM
MIMO, HSDPA 8C & 4x4 MIMO, MB MSR
Rel-12 Sept 2014 3DL CA, LTE-Direct, Active Antenna Systems, small cells…
Rel-13 Dec 2015 Being defined from Sept 2014, LTE-U? 4 carrier aggregation?
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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LTE Frequency bands
By the end of Release 13 there could be 47 frequency bands
defined for LTE
FDD TDD
Release 8 1 – 17 (excl. 15,16*) 32 - 40
Release 9 18 - 21
Release 10 22 - 25 41 - 43
Release 11 26 - 29 44
Release 12 30 - 32
Release 13 1980-2010MHz & 2170-2200MHz Region 1,
1670-1675MHz Band for US,
AWS (Band 4) extension (study)
* Bands 15 and 16 are specified by ETSI only for use in Europe
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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Release 11, 12 &13 RAN stats
3GPP Releases 11, 12 and early 13 represent a huge
growth in features and complexity
• 58 Study items for feasibility of new work
• 75 new features (excl. carrier aggregation), 51 with new
performance requirements
• 129 new carrier aggregation combinations with corresponding
performance requirements
• 4 performance only requirements for features from earlier
releases
• 29 new conformance tests (expect ~180 at completion)
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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What is the motivation for 5G?
The primary motivation for 5G is the apparently endless
exponential growth in demand for wireless data services
In addition there is an emerging set of demands based on the
unique attributes of machine-type communications (MTC) for
the internet of things (IoT) which is predicted to reach tens of
billions of devices by 2020
There is also growing awareness of the need for energy
efficiency and cost savings
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Shaping 5G: A complex problem
Performance-led metrics Identifiable metrics for higher performance
Higher bit rates
Lower latency
Higher spectral efficiency
Higher capacity density
Higher connection density
Leading to consequences for
Terminal and network cost
Terminal battery life
Energy efficiency
Reliability of service
Mobility
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Shaping 5G: A complex problem
Availability and efficiency-led metrics Demands for availability and cost/energy efficiency
High availability of service
Lower terminal and network cost
Longer terminal battery life
Higher energy efficiency
Lower mobility
Leading to consequences on performance
Lower or sufficient bit rates
Higher latency
Lower spectral efficiency
Lower capacity density
Lower connection density
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Performance vs.
availability, cost and
efficiency
The emerging
demands on 5G are
far more
comprehensive than
previous generations
It is very clear that
some fo the desirable
attributes are mutually
exclusive. This leads
to an assumption that
the needs of 5G
cannot be met by one
single solution
Shaping 5G High
Performance
Availability
cost and
efficiency
Bit rate
bits / s
109
107
105
103
UE battery life
days
103
102
10
1
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High
Performance
Availability
cost and
efficiency
2G focussed on low bit
rate voice and SMS
services with low
spectral efficiency and
correspondingly high
availability at the cell
edge
2G targets Bit rate
bits / s
109
107
105
103
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Later evolutions for
packet data (GPRS
and EDGE) traded off
higher efficiency to get
higher bit rates with
correspondingly lower
availability at the cell
edge
2.5G targets High
Performance
Availability
cost and
efficiency
Bit rate
bits / s
109
107
105
103
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High
Performance
Availability
cost and
efficiency
The requirements for
high mobility 3G from
ITU-R (IMT-2000)
were less
comprehensive
covering just single-
user peak bit rates.
This is why early 3G
experiences did not
match up to the much
advertised 2 Mb/s low
mobility expectations.
3G targets Bit rate
bits / s
109
107
105
103
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High
Performance
Availability
cost and
efficiency
The 4G targets
provided by ITU-R
were more
comprehensive than
3G by adding latency
and spectral efficiency
targets but otherwise
focussed again on
single-user peak data
rates at low mobility.
4G targets Bit rate
bits / s
109
107
105
103
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High
Performance
Availability
cost and
efficiency
In the early debate on
5G some targets for
attributes associated
with high performance
have been proposed.
The consequences on
the attributes of
availability, cost and
efficiency using
today’s technology
then follow
A better balance
between the upper
and lower halves of
the plot will require
technical breakthrough
5G High performance
targets
Bit rate
bits / s
109
107
105
103
UE battery life
days
103
102
10
1
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High
Performance
Availability
cost and
efficiency
By contrast the
contrasting demands
of static MTC/IoT look
very different
The key attributes are
driven from the lower
half of the spider
diagram with the likely
performance attributes
being impacted
MTC/IoT targets
Bit rate
bits / s
109
107
105
103
UE battery life
days
103
102
10
1
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High
Performance
Availability
cost and
efficiency
Looking at public
safety a further
difference emerges in
priorities
The consequence of
the contrasting targets
for 5G means there
will need to be more
than one technical
solution
Public safety
targets
Bit rate
bits / s
109
107
105
103
UE battery life
days
103
102
10
1
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High
Performance
Availability
cost and
efficiency
By overlaying the
contrasting demands
of different types of
service an aggregate
picture of 5G emerges.
Could this be 5G?
Bit rate
bits / s
109
107
105
103
UE battery life
days
103
102
10
1
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Setting the 5G agenda
The role of the ITU If the industry were left to its own
devices two possibilities might emerge
LTE would continue to evolve with an ever-increasing list of
incremental developments with the risk of creating a complex
infrastructure with a fragmented market
The conflicting demands on 5G might lead to a never-ending
debate or, national or regional solutions that risk market
fragmentation
For 5G to be successful it needs to have a clear focus and
timeline – this should be the role of the ITU in the successor to
the IMT-2000 and IMT-Advanced programs
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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Setting the 5G agenda
Other organizations In addition to the ITU there are currently many organizations across
the world with an interest in 5G research including:
Japan - ARIB 2020 ad hoc group
Korea - 5G Forum
China - IMT2020 and Beyond promotion group
Europe - Horizon 2020 funded research program
• 5G Public Private Partnership (5GPPP) is a Horizon 2020 program
UK The 5G Innovation Centre based at Surrey University
Germany – Technical University of Dresden Industrial Partners
US - New York University Wireless consortium
Global – Next Generation Mobile Networks (NGMN) operator group
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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5G Timing
There is a general recognition that 5G is targeting commercial
deployment beyond 2020
There are also national / regional pressures to demonstrate
capability for flagship events such as the Korean 2018 Winter
Olympics and the Tokyo 2020 Summer Olympics
That said, if the timescales of previous generations which had
much simpler objectives were to be repeated, then commercial
launch in 2020 is a seriously aggressive goal
However, for the time being, 2020 is the date motivating 5G
research
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
30th June 2014 Page 25 © 2014 Agilent Technologies
5G solution proposals
There are many potential solutions proposed for 5G, but given
the desire for orders of magnitude of change in performance,
cost etc. most of the marginal ideas can be discounted
Only the solutions that truly could make a huge difference need
to be considered, the rest can be left to the ongoing evolution of
legacy systems
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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A simple wireless capacity model
The capacity of a system to deliver services is defined by three
main factors:
• The bandwidth of the available radio spectrum – in MHz
• The efficient use of that spectrum – bits / second / hertz
• The number of cells – this equates to spectrum reuse
Number of cells
Eff
icie
ncy
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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Wireless capacity growth
1960 – 2010
Capacity 1,000,000x
Gro
wth
facto
r
1
10
100
1000
20 25
2000
Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells
10000
Gro
wth
po
ten
tial
1
10
3 2
100
Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells
100
2010 – 2020
Capacity 600x
For both the past and the future, the growth of wireless capacity is
dominated by the number of cells (small cell spectrum reuse)
Most
industry effort
Most
opportunity
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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Wireless capacity growth: with mmWave spectrum
Gro
wth
po
ten
tial
1
10
2
20
100
Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells
100
2015 – 2025
Capacity 4000x
But with potential for mmWave deployment, the available spectrum
might rise from a typical 500 MHz per region to many GHz
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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5G Technical Assumptions
Use of mmWave frequencies 10G-50GHz, 60 GHz, possibly 70-80 GHz.
Wider bandwidths: 500MHz to 3GHz (below 50 GHz)
Massive MIMO – 100+ elements
New antenna technologies
• Steerable Array antennas (dynamic beam forming patterns)
• Massive MIMO (e.g. 100-1000 low-power antennas per BTS
Will require significantly more (low cost) backhaul capacity (400 Gb/s)
Very low round-trip latency requirements
• Affects all elements of the network
Higher Frequencies and Higher Densities will dictate small cells
Software defined radio and network
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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5G Technical Assumptions
New air interfaces
• Move towards more cognitive designs to take advantage of spectrum sharing: a hybrid of
cellular mobility and Wi-Fi ad hoc co-existence
Interop and integration with multiple RAT’s including unlicensed
• Significant impact on the network (e.g. control channel on low band)
• Role of 802.11ad as it evolves between now and 2020 into 802.11ax
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Why mmWave? Challenge & Opportunity
𝑃𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑅𝑋 = 𝑃𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟𝑇𝑋 + 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝐺𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑅𝑋 + 𝐴𝑛𝑡𝐺𝑎𝑖𝑛𝑇𝑋 − 20𝑙𝑜𝑔10 4𝜋𝑅 - 20𝑙𝑜𝑔10𝑓
𝑐
In words. For a given distance, as the frequency increases, the received power will
drop unless offset by an increase in some combination of transmit power, transmit
antenna gain, and receive antenna gain.
The decrease in power as a function of frequency is
caused by the decrease in the antenna aperture.
IBM 94 GHz Array Can Tile for Larger Arrays
IBM Press Release, June 2013
Distance Frequency
The Good News:
• Higher frequency antennas elements are smaller
• Easier to assemble into electronically steered arrays
• Reduced interference. Energy goes where it’s needed
• Improve performance in dense crowds (5G goal)
• Higher frequencies wider bandwidths: faster (5G goal)
Challenges:
• Increased complexity with more elements
• Multiple antenna arrays required for spherical coverage
• Discovery and Tracking (mobile devices)
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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2D Massive MIMO free space simulation
Four users, 0 dB relative BS power
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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2D Massive MIMO scattering simulation
Four users, -5.6 dB relative BS power
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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2D Massive MIMO random scattering
200 ant, 1λ, -14.5 dB relative BS power
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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Mobility and the challenge of directional
antennas
It becomes a bit like making one’s
way through a thicket at night with
a laser pointer when a broad
beamed flashlight is needed.
Steve Wilkus
Search Strategies
High Gain
Large volume to search, low probability of
both stations pointing in the same direction
Low Gain
Higher probability of looking in the right
direction but much less energy to detect
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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Potential 5G mmWave bands
Samsung Experiments: 28 and 38 GHz
(500 MHz)
Japan: Tokyo Institute of Tech. 11 GHz,
400 MHz
(some collaboration with NTT DoCoMo)
METIS: Bands for investigation - see chart
Samsung
METIS
Samsung
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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mmWave Design Challenges
High Frequency High Bandwidth High Path Loss High Data Rate
Phase Stability High IF to
Converters (use 2nd
Nyquist)
Directional Antennas
Usually Required
Power consumption
Amplifier Efficiency I and Q channel
match over
frequency
Large codebook
space for Beam
Steering
Algorithm Complexity
Output Power Integrated Noise
Power
Beam forming
complexity
Prototyping (FPGA’s
usually not fast
enough)
Antenna Complexity Harder to doge
spurious
Robust Modulation
and Coding (MCS)
IO (memory,
interfaces to CPU’s
etc.)
Quadrature Errors
(Homodyne)
A/D and D/A
Converters
(power consumption)
Discovery and
Tracking affect MAC
and MCS
High sample-rate
data to/from
converters
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Six predictions for wireless broadband 2020
1. No new worldwide allocations of mmWave spectrum
2. Cellular will extend into the ISM band at 60 GHz (Unlicensed
access)
3. The importance of UE antennas will finally be recognized
4. WLAN will become an equal partner with cellular
5. Without technical breakthrough, the operator business case
will not support a massive expansion in capacity
6. The success of 802.11ad will determine the likelihood of
cellular at mmWave frequencies
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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1 No new worldwide allocations of mmWave
spectrum One of the yet to be addressed challenges for 5G is where potential mmWave spectrum might be found
The last time the ITU Worlds Radio Council allocated spectrum for wireless communications was 2007, there was no debate at WRC 2012.
In 2015 there is an agenda item for communications below 6 GHz but no guarantee fo any new allocations
There is not yet an agenda item agreed for WRC 2018/9 to discuss potential mmWave allocations
Existing spectrum holders from military, Broadcast, Satellite industries are acting together to prevent further release to mobile broadband
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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2 Cellular will extend into the ISM band at 60
GHz (Unlicensed access) Release 13 will study the operation f LTE in unlicensed spectrum
(LTE-U) - in particular the 5 GHz ISM band used for WLAN
This is to enable operators to offload traffic to LTE femtocells without
having to implement WLAN thus avoiding inter-RAT challenges
Proposals are controversial since standard LTE interferes with WLAN
LTE is shown to be more efficient - but WLAN was there first
Modifications to the LTE air interface are proposed to make co-
existence with WLAN more tolerable (e.g. Listen Before Talk – LBT)
Likely to become the single biggest increase of cellular spectrum (up
to 680 MHz in 5 GHz band) since the allocations given at WRC 07.
If successful at 5 GHz, likely to be extended to the 60 GHz ISM band
as the quickest way for 5G to get spectrum
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3 The importance of antennas will finally be
recognized
Step 1 Measure with a micrometer
Once conducted signals reach RF, allowances for
implementation margin and test system uncertainty
can account for 2 or 3 dB lost performance
Features providing a few
tenths of a dB of baseband
performance are considered
worth fighting for
But the radiated performance of devices
taking into account the antennas can
easily vary by 10 dB or more
Step 2 Mark with chalk
Step 3 Cut with an axe
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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mmWave Antenna Development and
Validation
• Antenna Performance
– Steerable: design, characterization (codebook), producibility
– Beam forming: Reciprocity, Gain/Phase/TDD elements
• Traceable Measurements
– Challenging without facility for conducted measurements
– Integrated Power: Varies with radiation pattern
– Receiver Sensitivity
• Interoperability with steerable antennas (MAC and PHY)
• Test Modes
– Start or Stop steering/beamforming
– Select test pattern
– Use test-only DUT configurations to simplify parametric measurements, and to aid in isolating performance issues of individual antenna subsystems or elements.
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RF MIMO OTA Multi-probe anechoic chamber
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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2007
4 WLAN will become an equal partner with
cellular
Brief history of cellular
carriers & WiFi
2012
No longer a threat
No longer not good enough
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Evolution of carrier aggregation
Release-10 Co-located The original goal of CA was to increase
the spectrum and hence peak data
rate available from one cell site
Two carriers in the same band
with very similar coverage area
Two carriers of different frequencies
showing different coverage areas
When the second carrier is
at a very different frequency,
the benefit of CA is limited to the
centre of the cell which is not ideal
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Evolution of carrier aggregation
Rel-12 Dual connectivity for LTE By allowing CA between sites it is possible to provide
continuous CA coverage using a low frequency
macro (umbrella) cell and local capacity
using a higher frequency small cell
Macro umbrella cell
Small
cell Small
cell
Small
cell
The separation of the sites means
that enhancements are required at the
physical layer including multiple timing advances
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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Evolution of carrier aggregation
Rel-13 Multi-RAT dual connectivity The ultimate flexibility is then achieved if CA is performed
across radio access technologies (RATs) and
in particular with today’s dominant small
cell technology: WLAN.
Macro umbrella cell
Small
cell WLAN
WLAN
This level of integration
will force solutions to the issues
of authentication and billing which
continue to limit the potential of WLAN today.
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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5 Without technical breakthrough, the
operator business case will not support a
massive expansion in capacity
The predictions for exponential traffic growth assume the
provision of the necessary network capacity is affordable
Current wireless broadband experience is dominated by a lack
of investment in current technology rather than a need for new
technology
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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At the conference
Churchill College
No 3G coverage in the
auditorium
EDGE
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6 The success of 802.11ad will predict the
likelihood of cellular at mmWave
Cellular at mmWave will face all of the challenges of WirelessHD and
802.11ad and many more. 802.11ad will be seven years old in 2020 and
its success will be a barometer for what is possible with mmWave cellular
802.11ad ASIC’s are available
now and shipping in quantity
Peraso
Wilocity
WirelessHD has been available to
consumers for several years
IOGear Wireless HD - £189 at Amazon
The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.
William Gibson
Taking 5G from Vision to Reality Moray Rumney
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Summary
The current wireless broadband ecosystem is
becoming increasingly fragmented and complex with
implications on performance and costs
For 5G to deliver a revolutionary step and distinguish
itself from the ongoing evolution of 4G will require
breakthrough developments
Unlike previous mobile communication generations,
the debate around 5G is embracing the full range of
technical performance, economic and environmental
factors
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But as engineers we should not forget that
the “best” designs don’t always win!
Ethernet vs. Token ring
802.11b vs. HiperLAN
Windows 3.1 vs. Unix
Iridium vs. GSM
Esperanto vs. English
“Perfection is the enemy of the good” Gustave Flaubert
French Novelist 1821 - 1880