Post on 03-Feb-2022
transcript
Taking Stock With Teens A Collaborative Consumer Insights Project
Spring 2017
Piper Jaffray does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. This report should be read in conjunction with important disclosure information, including an attestation under Regulation Analyst Certification, found at the end of this report or at the following site: http://www.piperjaffray.com/researchdisclosures.
DISCLOSURES Disclosures for universe of: Sam Kemp, Stan Meyers, Nicole Miller Regan, Erinn Murphy, Mike Olson 1. I or a household member has a financial interest in the securities of the following companies: none 2. I or a household member is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the following companies: none 3. I have received compensation within the past 12 months from the following companies: none 4. Piper Jaffray or its affiliates beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equities of the following companies: PBPB 5. Piper Jaffray has received compensation for investment banking services from or has had a client relationship with the following companies within the past 12 months: Kemp: GDDY, SHOP; Meyers: AMC; Miller Regan: BOJA, TACO 6. Piper Jaffray expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the following companies in the next 3 months: Meyers: AMC; Miller Regan: BOJA 7. Within the past 12 months Piper Jaffray was a managing underwriter of a public offering of, or dealer manager of a tender offer for, the securities of the following companies: Kemp: GDDY, SHOP; Meyers: AMC; Miller Regan: BOJA 8. Piper Jaffray has received compensation for non-investment banking services from or has had a client relationship with the following companies within the past 12 months: Miller Regan: BBRG, DFRG, PLKI, SBUX, SONC, TACO; Murphy: CROX, SHOO 9. Piper Jaffray makes a market in the securities of the following companies, and will buy and sell the securities of these companies on a principal basis: Kemp: ETSY, FD, GDDY, GRPN, IAC, LOGM, WEB, YELP; Meyers: CBS, DIS, ENT, IMAX, NCMI, P, RGC, SIRI, VIAB; AKAM, ATVI, CHGG, CTRP, DLB, EA, EXPE, GLUU, GME, KING, NFLX, OUTR, PCLN, ROVI, TIVO, TRIP, TTWO, ZNGA; Miller Regan: BBRG, BJRI, BOJA, CAKE, CMG, DFRG, DNKN, DRI, EAT, FOGO, FRGI, HABT, MCD, NDLS, PBPB, PLKI, PNRA, QSR, RUTH, SBUX, SONC, TACO, ZOES; Murphy: COH, CROX, DECK, FINL, FIT, FL, FOSL, GCO, GIII, GPRO, JCP, JWN, KORS, KSS, NKE, PVH, SHOO, SQBG, UAA, WWW;;Olson: AAPL, AKAM, AMZN, ATVI, DLB, EA, EBAY, EXPE, MELI, NFLX, PCLN, TIVO, TRIP, TTWO, ZNGA 10. Piper Jaffray usually provides bids and offers for the securities of the following companies and will, from time to time, buy and sell the securities of these companies on a principal basis: Kemp: GOOG, MTCH, SHOP, SNAP; Meyers: AMC, AMCX, CKEC, LGF/A; Murphy: ADS GR, RL, VFC
Investment Risks
Risks to achievement of investment objectives include, but are not limited to, the following:
• Reliance on key top management
• Changing consumer preferences
• Changes in input costs and raw materials
• Markdown risks
• Product flow and inventory disruptions
• Competition
• Lack of pricing power
• Deleveraging of fixed expenses
• Foreign exchange rate risk
• General macroeconomic uncertainty
5 | Taking Stock With Teens
Survey is executed in partnership with DECA The source for all charts/tables within this report is Piper Jaffray.
National survey of teens measuring: • Spending Patterns • Channel Preferences • Product Trends & Cycles
16.0 Average Age
39% Part-Time Employed
1,400 teens Classroom visits and electronic
surveys
$100,000 Household income
Represents top 20% of
U.S. household units
4,100 teens Classroom visits and electronic
surveys
$55,000 Household income
Aligns more closely
with U.S. median
UPPER-INCOME GROUP
AVERAGE-INCOME GROUP
5,500 Responses
33rd Semi-Annual Proprietary Teen Research Project
6 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Handbag Brands
1 Michael Kors 33%
2 Kate Spade 19%
3 Coach 9%
4 Longchamp 5%
5 Louis Vuitton 5%
Top Footwear Brands
1 Nike 52%
2 Vans 9%
3 adidas 8%
4 Converse 6%
5 Steve Madden 2%
Top Clothing Brands
1 Nike 31%
2 American Eagle 10%
3 Forever 21 5%
4 lululemon 3%
5 adidasH&M
3%3%
Executive Summary
• Overall teen spending moved down 2.4% Y/Y; parent contribution to teen spend is at 63%, down from average 68% • Within the wallet, food & video games are multi-year share gainers; fashion moderates as % share of wallet • Food makes up 24% of teen budgets today eclipsing clothing of 19% • Starbucks is the only public brand to maintain double-digit mindshare, it was tied this survey cycle with Chick-fil-A at
12% preference • 24% of teen shop specialty today, down 300 bps Y/Y; pure-play e-com up 300 bps to 17% (new survey peak) • Teens’ favorite website is Amazon at 43% share—up 200 bps Y/Y • Snapchat and Instagram remain teens’ favorite platforms, but Facebook surprisingly held onto its teen engagement
despite heavy competition for teen attention • 81% of teens expect their next phone to be an iPhone, which was up from 79% in Fall 2016 and, more importantly, the
highest we’ve seen ever in the survey • Fashion lacks significant product cycle outside of athletic; athletic preferences continue to inch higher • Brand perspective: the fastest growing brand in our survey is adidas; Patagonia surprised to upside • Brands losing share/relevance: Under Armour, Michael Kors, The North Face, Ralph Lauren, Vineyard Vines • For console video games, the percent of teens who plan to digitally download >50% of games has increased to 45%
for Spring 2017 from 37% in Fall 2015
Global Fashion & Lifestyle Brands Clothing, Shoes, Accessories & Connected Devices
36% of Teen Spending
8 | Taking Stock With Teens
Total Teen Spending Is Down Slightly
Total teen spending is down 2.4% Y/Y; spending on fashion is consistent with a decline of 2.2% Y/Y
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9 | Taking Stock With Teens
Basic Needs25%
Selfie Budget28%
Social Budget
47%
Basic Needs15%
Selfie Budget48%
Social Budget
37%
43%
36%
All Upper-Income Teens
What Is In A Teen’s Wallet Today?
21% Selfie Budget
Clothing, Accessories, Personal Care, &
Shoes
Basic Needs Electronics, Cars,
& Other
Social Budget Food, Video Games,
Music, Movies, Events, & Books
Female
Male
10 | Taking Stock With Teens
Upper-Income Teen’s Wallet
Top Spending Categories For Teens
Male’s Wallet Share
1 Food 24%
2 Clothing 16%
3 Video Games 12%
Female’s Wallet Share
1 Clothing 25%
2 Food 23%
3Personal Care/ Accessories 16%
11 | Taking Stock With Teens
Shopping Channel Preferences Indexing Online
TIME SPENT IN SHOPPING CHANNELS (UPPER-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Spring 2016 Fall 2016 Spring 2017 Peak Specialty 27% 27% 27% 26% 27% 27% 26% 24% 47%Major Chain / Dept Store 18% 18% 18% 18% 17% 17% 17% 16% 33%Off-Price 12% 10% 13% 13% 11% 11% 11% 11% 12%Discount 12% 13% 14% 12% 12% 13% 12% 12% 17%Outlet 14% 13% 13% 12% 13% 12% 15% 14% 16%Mail order 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 7%Online Only eTailers 10% 13% 11% 13% 14% 14% 15% 17% 17%
45%
41%
17%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Fall2013
Spring2014
Fall2014
Spring2015
Fall2015
Spring2016
Fall2016
Spring2017
Onl
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Dept Store / Specialty Retailer Online Only eTailers
12 | Taking Stock With Teens
Amazon As Top Website For Teens Upper-Income Teens
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Amazon 38% 1 Amazon 41% 1 Amazon 40% 1 Amazon 43%2 Nike 8% 2 Nike 5% 2 Nike 8% 2 Nike 5%3 eBay 4% 3 Forever 21 5% 3 American Eagle 4% 3 American Eagle 5%4 Forever 21 3% 4 eBay 3% 4 eBay 3% 4 Forever 21 3%5 Urban Outfitters 3% 5 American Eagle 3% 5 Forever 21 2% 5 eBay 2%6 American Eagle 2% Victoria's Secret 3% 6 Urban Outfitters 2% 6 Urban Outfitters 2%7 Eastbay 2% 7 Urban Outfitters 3% 7 Nordstrom 1% 7 Victoria's Secret 2%8 Victoria's Secret 2% 8 Eastbay 2% 8 Victoria's Secret 1% 8 lululemon 1%9 Nordstrom 2% 9 Dick's Sporting Goods 1% 9 Hollister 1% PacSun 1%10 PacSun 1% 10 PacSun 1% PacSun 1% 10 Zumiez 1%
From 2014 to 2016, we estimate AMZN’s Softlines Dollars Grew From $12.4B to $21.7B; 56% of the overall industry growth
56%
27%
16% 12%
7%
(4%)
(13%)
Amazon Off-Price FastFashion
Discounters Athletic Specialty DepartmentStores
Contribution To North American Softlines Growth (CY14-CY16E)
13 | Taking Stock With Teens
Athletic Is A Multi-Year Trend; Not A Cycle Favorite Apparel Brand, Upper-Income Teens
• Nike remains the No. 1 apparel brand with 31% share—up from 21% last year
• Lululemon now the No. 4 preferred apparel brand at 3% share vs. 1% last year
• Adidas tied for No. 5 at 3% share—vs. No. 10 at 2% share last year
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 27% 1 Nike 21% 1 Nike 29% 1 Nike 31%2 Forever 21 7% 2 American Eagle 8% 2 American Eagle 9% 2 American Eagle 10%3 American Eagle 6% 3 Forever 21 7% 3 Forever 21 5% 3 Forever 21 5%4 Ralph Lauren 5% 4 Ralph Lauren 6% 4 Ralph Lauren 4% 4 lululemon 3%5 Urban Outfitters 3% 5 Hollister 4% 5 Urban Outfitters 3% 5 Adidas 3%6 PacSun 2% 6 PacSun 3% 6 H&M 3% H&M 3%7 Free People 2% 7 Urban Outfitters 3% 7 PacSun 2% 7 Hollister 2%8 H&M 2% Victoria's Secret 3% 8 Adidas 2% 8 Urban Outfitters 2%9 Vineyard Vines 2% 9 H&M 3% 9 Vineyard Vines 2% Vans 2%10 Nordstrom 2% 10 Adidas 2% 10 Victoria's Secret 2% 10 PacSun 2%
Ralph Lauren 2%
14 | Taking Stock With Teens
Athletic Is A Multi-Year Trend; Not A Cycle Favorite Apparel Brand, Upper-Income Teens
41% of teen names an athletic apparel brand as their preferred apparel brand (unaided)
15 | Taking Stock With Teens
Athletic Is A Multi-Year Trend; Not A Cycle Favorite Footwear Brand, Upper-Income Teens
• Over 50% of teens favor Nike; all-time survey high
• Adidas is now the No. 3 brand at 8% share vs. the No. 4 brand at 4% share
• Converse & Vans saw slight contraction in share year-over-year, led by men’s
• Steve Madden rounds out the top five
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 50% 1 Nike 48% 1 Nike 51% 1 Nike 52%2 Vans 9% 2 Vans 10% 2 Vans 9% 2 Vans 9%3 Converse 7% 3 Converse 7% 3 Converse 7% 3 Adidas 8%4 Sperry 4% 4 Adidas 4% 4 Adidas 6% 4 Converse 6%5 Steve Madden 3% 5 Sperry 3% 5 Steve Madden 2% 5 Steve Madden 3%6 DSW 3% 6 DSW 3% 6 Sperry 2% 6 Sperry 2%7 Adidas 2% 7 Steve Madden 3% 7 DSW 2% 7 DSW 2%8 Foot Locker 1% 8 Foot Locker 2% 8 Birkenstock 2% 8 Foot Locker 1%9 Birkenstock 1% 9 UGG 1% 9 Foot Locker 1% 9 Birkenstock 1%
Nordstrom 1% 10 TOMS 1% 10 Nordstrom 1% 10 Payless ShoeSource 1%UGG 1%
16 | Taking Stock With Teens
Athletic Is A Multi-Year Trend; Not A Cycle Favorite Footwear Brand, Upper-Income Males
17 | Taking Stock With Teens
Athletic Is A Multi-Year Trend; Not A Cycle Favorite Footwear Brand, Upper-Income Females
18 | Taking Stock With Teens
adidas Share Hits Ten-Year High For Males Favorite Footwear Brand, Upper-Income Males
19 | Taking Stock With Teens
adidas Share Pushes Past Peak Among Females Favorite Footwear Brand, Upper-Income Females
20 | Taking Stock With Teens
Patagonia On The Rise--Or Shall We Say Pata“Gucci”
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 72% 1 Nike 71% 1 Nike 71% 1 Nike 69%2 lululemon 7% 2 Adidas 7% 2 lululemon 7% 2 Adidas 8%3 Under Armour 6% 3 Under Armour 5% 3 Adidas 7% 3 lululemon 7%4 Adidas 4% 4 lululemon 5% 4 Under Armour 6% 4 Under Armour 7%5 The North Face 1% 5 The North Face 1% 5 Athleta 1% 5 Patagonia 1%
The North Face 1%
Brands Teens Are Starting To Wear (Upper-Income Males)
Preferred Athletic Apparel Brand—Patagonia Hits Top Five
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 13% 1 Nike 11% 1 Nike 13% 1 Adidas 10%2 Ralph Lauren 11% 2 Ralph Lauren 10% 2 Ralph Lauren 10% 2 Nike 9%3 Adidas 6% 3 Adidas 7% 3 Adidas 8% 3 Ralph Lauren 6%4 Vineyard Vines 6% 4 American Eagle 4% 4 American Eagle 5% 4 American Eagle 5%5 Under Armour 4% 5 Vineyard Vines 3% 5 Vineyard Vines 5% 5 Under Armour 4%6 American Eagle 4% 6 Under Armour 3% 6 Under Armour 5% 6 Patagonia 3%7 Vans 3% 7 Vans 3% 7 Vans 3% 7 Vans 3%8 H&M 2% 8 Hollister 2% 8 H&M 2% 8 lululemon 2%9 Tommy Hilfiger 2% 9 New Balance 2% 9 lululemon 2% 9 Gucci 2%10 RVCA 2% 10 Four Brands Tied 2% 10 Hollister 2% 10 Vineyard Vines 2%
21 | Taking Stock With Teens
Teens Talk Trends – Casual & Athletic For Males Top Fashion Trends Right Now, Upper-Income Males
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike/Jordans 18% 1 Nike/Jordans 20% 1 Nike/Jordans 19% 1 Nike / Jordans 18%2 Preppy 8% 2 Jogger Pants 12% 2 Jogger Pants 8% 2 Jogger Pants 8%
Ralph Lauren 8% 3 Ralph Lauren 6% 3 Vineyard Vines 7% 3 Athletic Wear 6%4 Vineyard Vines 8% 4 Preppy 6% 4 Athletic Wear 6% 4 Khakis / Chinos 5%5 Jogger Pants 7% 5 Athletic Wear 5% 5 Khakis/Chinos 6% 5 Adidas 4%6 Boat Shoes 5% 6 Hair / Man Buns 5% 6 Preppy 6% 6 lululemon 4%
Khakis/Chinos 5% Khakis/Chinos 5% 7 Ralph Lauren 4% 7 Ripped Jeans 3%8 Athletic Wear 4% 8 Vineyard Vines 4% 8 Tall Socks 4% 8 Preppy 3%9 Tall Socks 4% 9 Boat Shoes 3% 9 Boat Shoes 3% 9 Jeans 3%10 Shoes 3% 10 Tall Socks 2% 10 Adidas 2% 10 Timberland 2%
22 | Taking Stock With Teens
Teens Talk Trends – The 90s For Females Top Fashion Trends Right Now, Upper-Income Females
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Leggings/lululemon 24% 1 Leggings/lululemon 23% 1 Leggings/lululemon 25% 1 Leggings / lululemon 25%2 Nike / Jordans 5% 2 Victoria's Secret 7% 2 Birkenstock 6% 2 Chokers 11%3 Birkenstock 5% 3 Converse 6% 3 Victoria's Secret 5% 3 Converse 5%4 Converse 4% 4 Nike / Jordans 6% 4 Converse 4% 4 Victoria's Secret 4%5 Victoria's Secret 4% 5 Boots 3% 5 Ripped Jeans 4% 5 Adidas 4%6 Crop Tops 3% 6 Crop Tops 3% 6 Jeans 3% 6 Ripped Jeans 4%7 Short Shorts 2% 7 Athletic Wear 2% 7 Adidas 3% 7 Jeans 3%8 Rompers 2% 8 Jeans 2% 8 Bralettes 3% 8 Boots 3%
Vineyard Vines 2% 9 Michael Kors 2% 9 Nike / Jordans 3% 9 Nike / Jordans 2%10 Dresses 2% 10 Adidas 2% 10 Chokers 3% 10 UGG 2%
23 | Taking Stock With Teens
Brands Teens No Longer Wear… Upper-Income Males
Upper-Income Females
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Gap 13% 1 Gap 13% 1 Adidas 10% 1 Under Armour 11%2 Adidas 10% 2 Adidas 9% 2 Gap 10% 2 Gap 10%3 Abercrombie & Fitch 8% 3 Abercrombie & Fitch 7% 3 Under Armour 7% 3 Adidas 9%4 Under Armour 6% 4 Nike 7% 4 Nike 6% 4 Nike 7%5 Nike 5% 5 Under Armour 6% 5 Reebok 6% 5 Reebok 6%6 Aeropostale 4% 6 Hollister 5% 6 Skechers 5% 6 Aeropostale 6%7 Hollister 4% 7 Reebok 5% 7 Puma 5% 7 Puma 4%8 Reebok 4% 8 Aeropostale 4% 8 Abercrombie & Fitch 4% 8 American Eagle 4%9 Skechers 4% 9 American Eagle 4% 9 Hollister 4% 9 Hollister 4%10 Ralph Lauren 3% 10 Skechers 3% 10 Aeropostale 3% 10 Skechers 3%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Aeropostale 22% 1 Aeropostale 26% 1 Justice 29% 1 Aeropostale 26%2 Justice 20% 2 Justice 20% 2 Aeropostale 17% 2 Justice 21%3 Abercrombie & Fitch 18% 3 Abercrombie & Fitch 12% 3 Abercrombie & Fitch 12% 3 Hollister 10%4 Hollister 8% 4 Hollister 9% 4 Hollister 9% 4 Abercrombie & Fitch 9%5 Gap 7% 5 Gap 5% 5 Gap 4% 5 American Eagle 3%6 Old Navy 2% 6 Old Navy 3% 6 Forever 21 3% 6 Forever 21 3%7 American Eagle 2% 7 Forever 21 2% 7 American Eagle 1% 7 Old Navy 2%8 Forever 21 2% 8 American Eagle 2% Old Navy 1% 8 Gap 2%9 dELiA*s 2% 9 Nike 2% 9 H&M 1% 9 Adidas 2%10 Target 1% 10 Target 1% Ralph Lauren 1% 10 Nike 1%
Victoria's Secret 1%
24 | Taking Stock With Teens
Handbag Brand Preferences Upper-Income Females
Average-Income Females
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Michael Kors 31% 1 Michael Kors 38% 1 Michael Kors 34% 1 Michael Kors 33%2 Kate Spade 15% 2 Kate Spade 16% 2 Kate Spade 19% 2 Kate Spade 19%3 Coach 10% 3 Coach 12% 3 Coach 10% 3 Coach 9%4 Louis Vuitton 6% 4 Louis Vuitton 4% 4 Louis Vuitton 5% 4 Longchamp 5%5 Vera Bradley 5% 5 Gucci 4% 5 Longchamp 3% 5 Louis Vuitton 5%6 Tory Burch 4% 6 Chanel 3% Vera Bradley 3% 6 Gucci 4%7 Gucci 3% 7 Tory Burch 3% 7 Chanel 2% 7 Tory Burch 3%8 Longchamp 3% 8 Longchamp 2% 8 Gucci 2% 8 Vera Bradley 2%9 Chanel 2% 9 Vera Bradley 2% 9 Tory Burch 2% 9 Target 2%10 Marc Jacobs 2% 10 Fossil 2% 10 Fossil 1% 10 Chanel 2%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Michael Kors 44% 1 Michael Kors 49% 1 Michael Kors 44% 1 Michael Kors 40%2 Coach 15% 2 Coach 12% 2 Coach 13% 2 Coach 14%3 Kate Spade 6% 3 Kate Spade 8% 3 Kate Spade 10% 3 Kate Spade 12%4 Vera Bradley 5% 4 Vera Bradley 4% 4 Vera Bradley 5% 4 Vera Bradley 4%5 Louis Vuitton 3% 5 Louis Vuitton 3% 5 Gucci 3% 5 Louis Vuitton 3%6 Gucci 2% 6 Fossil 2% 6 Louis Vuitton 3% 6 Gucci 3%7 Chanel 2% 7 Gucci 2% 7 Chanel 2% 7 Target 2%8 Fossil 1% 8 Chanel 2% 8 Fossil 1% 8 Tory Burch 2%9 Steve Madden 1% 9 Tory Burch 1% Target 1% 9 Chanel 2%10 Target 1% 10 Steve Madden 1% 10 Betsey Johnson 1% 10 Guess 1%
Guess 1%
25 | Taking Stock With Teens
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Intent to Buy a Watch in Next 6 Months(Upper-Income, Females)
Watch Brands Upper-Income Teens
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Rolex 34% 1 Rolex 29% 1 Rolex 37% 1 Rolex 37%2 Michael Kors 19% 2 Michael Kors 22% 2 Michael Kors 17% 2 Michael Kors 15%3 Casio 7% 3 Fossil 8% 3 Apple 5% 3 Fossil 8%4 Fossil 5% 4 Casio 6% Casio 5% 4 Apple 6%5 Apple 5% 5 Apple 5% 5 Fossil 5% 5 Casio 4%6 Nike 4% 6 Nixon 3% 6 Nixon 3% 6 Nixon 2%7 Nixon 4% 7 Nike 3% 7 Nike 2% 7 Gucci 2%8 Gucci 2% 8 Invicta 1% 8 Timex 2% 8 Nike 2%9 Timex 2% 9 Kate Spade 1% 9 Fitbit 1% 9 Citizen 2%
10 Swatch 1% 10 Citizen 1% 10 Gucci 1% 10 Garmin 1%Gucci 1% Kate Spade 1%
MVMT 1%
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Intent to Buy a Smart Watch in Next 6 Months(Upper-Income, All Teens)
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Intent to Buy a Fitness Band In Next 6 Months (Upper-Income, All Teens)
26 | Taking Stock With Teens
Connected Devices Favorite Fitness Band – All Teens
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 23% 1 Fitbit 21% 1 Fitbit 22% 1 Fitbit 24%2 Under Armour 20% 2 Nike 17% 2 Nike 17% 2 Apple 17%3 Fitbit 12% 3 Under Armour 17% 3 Under Armour 14% 3 Under Armour 15%4 Apple 11% 4 Apple 11% 4 Apple 14% 4 Nike 14%5 Samsung 5% 5 Samsung 4% 5 Samsung 5% 5 Samsung 4%6 Sworkit 4% 6 Sworkit 4% 6 Sworkit 3% 6 Sworkit 2%7 RunKeeper 2% 7 Lose It! 2% 7 Runkeeper 2% 7 Runkeeper 2%8 PumpUp 2% 8 Runkeeper 2% 8 Sleep Cycle 1% 8 Garmin 1%9 Fitness Pro 2% 9 Sleep Cycle 1% 9 Garmin 1% 9 Lose It! 1%10 7 Minute Workout 1% 10 PumpUp 1% 10 Lose It! 1% Sleep Cycle 1%
Favorite Fitness App - All Teens
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Fitbit 53% 1 Fitbit 72% 1 Fitbit 71% 1 Fitbit 71%2 Nike 24% 2 Nike 12% 2 Nike 13% 2 Apple 10%3 Apple 7% 3 Apple 6% 3 Apple 6% 3 Nike 9%4 Garmin 5% 4 Garmin 3% 4 Garmin 3% 4 Garmin 4%5 Jawbone 5% 5 Jawbone 3% 5 Jawbone 3% 5 Jawbone 1%
28 | Taking Stock With Teens
FOOD VS. CLOTHING SPEND
Restaurant Spending Trends Restaurants have steadily grown in importance within the broader teen wallet. During the most recent survey, restaurants represented 24% of overall spending for upper-income teens. In addition to increasing share of the overall budget restaurant spending continues to outpace spending on clothing.
29 | Taking Stock With Teens
PREFERENCE FOR LIMITED SERVICE BRANDS
Restaurant Spending Trends In addition to increasing both absolute and relative dollars at restaurants teens are showing an increasing preference for limited service restaurants relative to full service brands. This is the continuation of a longer-term trend we have observed going back to Spring 2009, at least, when teen brand preferences were primarily focused around full service brands.
30 | Taking Stock With Teens
Restaurant Spending Trends In the current “Pay For Performance” stage of the cycle we view a brand’s recipe for success as equal parts human capital, brand equity, prudent growth, and capitalizing on strategic opportunities. Over time, this should lend itself to self-funded development, consistency in earnings/cash flow, and/or excess capital to deploy back to shareholders via share repurchase and/or dividends.
PREFERRED BRANDS (UPPER INCOME)
PREFERRED BRANDS (AVERAGE INCOME)
32 | Taking Stock With Teens
A Pause in Social Trends Platform engagement changes vs. Fall 2016 are limited, including paused declines at FB. Snapchat continues to be teens' favorite platform, both in terms of use and preference. Relative to Street perspectives, we believe that this data is most positive for FB as it conflicts with the belief that Snapchat is causing continual declines in usage.
Which social platform do you use at least once per month?Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Spring 2016 Fall 2016 Spring 2017
Snapchat 68% 74% 75% 80% 81%Instagram 73% 76% 74% 79% 79%Twitter 57% 58% 58% 56% 56%Facebook 47% 56% 60% 52% 51%Pinterest 25% 25% 27% 25% 25%Google+ 14% 24% 23% 22% 19%
What is your favorite social platform?Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Spring 2016 Fall 2016 Spring 2017
Snapchat 11% 17% 24% 35% 39%Instagram 29% 29% 23% 24% 23%Twitter 21% 18% 16% 13% 11%Facebook 12% 13% 15% 13% 11%Pinterest 2% 1% 1% 1% 1%Google+ 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%
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Strong, Early Adoption of Snapchat & Instagram Facebook Twitter Snapchat Instagram
33 | Taking Stock With Teens
FB Declines Pause; Instagram = Solid Despite investor concern over Snapchat taking share, Facebook adoption is stable across most age cohorts. Instagram’s strength remains strong and the slightly stronger adoption among the youngest cohorts illustrates long-term staying power.
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Instagram Engagement Remains Strong Spring-15 Fall-15 Spring-16 Fall-16 Spring-17
34 | Taking Stock With Teens
Clear Instagram Monetization Opportunity We asked teens “What is the best way for a retailer/brand to communicate with you about new products or promotions?” They told us that Instagram is their preferred channel – well ahead of FB, Twitter and Snapchat. This illustrates the monetization potential within Instagram; Snapchat is also set for solid monetization.
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Brands/Retailers: Teens Want to Hear From you on Instagram! % Indicating the best way to communicate new products/promotions
35 | Taking Stock With Teens
Snap Continues Winning Teens Snapchat is not seeing any negative impacts from the recent use case diversification at FB, Messenger and Instagram. 81% of teens report using Snapchat and 79% indicate it as a top 3 network, both suggesting continued momentum. 0%
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Snapchat Continues to Gain Traction Across Ages Spring-15 Fall-15 Spring-16 Fall-16 Spring-17
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Snapchat Takes Slight Lead in Teen Preference % Including Network in Top 3 Platform
Facebook Twitter Instagram Snapchat
36 | Taking Stock With Teens
PREFERRED WEBSITES (UPPER-INCOME)
Amazon Mindshare Gains Continue Amazon mindshare gains continue, driven by female and male respondents. eBay mindshare ticked down 150bps (69% of mindshare), indicating relative weakness in the brand. Concentration of mindshare remains high, with 66% of preferred website responses (unaided) among the top 10 platforms Walmart has 0.04% of mindshare, Target has 0.34%; limited threat
PREFERRED WEBSITES BY GENDER (UPPER-INCOME)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Amazon 38% 1 Amazon 41% 1 Amazon 40% 1 Amazon 43%2 Nike 8% 2 Nike 5% 2 Nike 8% 2 Nike 5%3 eBay 4% 3 Forever 21 5% 3 American Eagle 4% 3 American Eagle 5%4 Forever 21 3% 4 eBay 3% 4 eBay 3% 4 Forever 21 3%5 Urban Outfitters 3% 5 American Eagle 3% 5 Forever 21 2% 5 eBay 2%6 American Eagle 2% Victoria's Secret 3% 6 Urban Outfitters 2% 6 Urban Outfitters 2%7 Eastbay 2% 7 Urban Outfitters 3% 7 Nordstrom 1% 7 Victoria's Secret 2%8 Victoria's Secret 2% 8 Eastbay 2% 8 Victoria's Secret 1% 8 lululemon 1%9 Nordstrom 2% 9 Dick's Sporting Goods 1% 9 Hollister 1% PacSun 1%
10 PacSun 1% 10 PacSun 1% PacSun 1% 10 Zumiez 1%
FemalesRank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %
1 Amazon 28% 1 Amazon 29% 1 Amazon 27% 1 Amazon 30%2 Forever 21 9% 2 Forever 21 11% 2 American Eagle 8% 2 American Eagle 11%3 Urban Outfitters 6% 3 Victoria's Secret 6% 3 Forever 21 6% 3 Forever 21 7%4 American Eagle 5% 4 American Eagle 5% 4 Urban Outfitters 5% 4 Urban Outfitters 5%5 Victoria's Secret 4% 5 Urban Outfitters 5% 5 Victoria's Secret 3% 5 Victoria's Secret 5%6 Nordstrom 4% 6 Nike 2% 6 Nordstrom 3% 6 Lululemon 3%7 Brandy Melville 3% Sephora 2% 7 Brandy Melville 3% 7 Fashion Nova 2%8 Hollister 3% 8 Hollister 2% 8 Hollister 2% 8 Hollister 2%9 Free People 3% lululemon 2% 9 Etsy 2% Nordstrom 2%
10 Nike 2% 10 PacSun 2% 10 Free People 2% 10 Tobi 2%
MalesRank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %
1 Amazon 45% 1 Amazon 50% 1 Amazon 48% 1 Amazon 51%2 Nike 12% 2 Nike 7% 2 Nike 12% 2 Nike 8%3 eBay 6% 3 eBay 5% 3 eBay 5% 3 eBay 3%4 Eastbay 3% 4 Eastbay 3% 4 Vineyard Vines 1% 4 PacSun 2%5 Dick's Sporting Goods 2% 5 Dick's Sporting Goods 2% 5 Zumiez 1% Zumiez 2%6 Foot Locker 2% 6 Foot Locker 2% 6 Eastbay 1% 6 adidas 1%7 PacSun 1% 7 Zumiez 2% 7 adidas 1% Foot Locker 1%8 Vineyard Vines 1% 8 Supreme 1% PacSun 1% 8 Eastbay 1%9 Ralph Lauren 1% 9 Ralph Lauren 1% 9 Foot Locker 1% H&M 1%
10 Tilly's 1% 10 Three Sites Tied 1% 10 Ralph Lauren 1% 10 Aliexpress 1%Supreme 1% Dick's Sporting Goods 1%
37 | Taking Stock With Teens
Profile of Prime Adoption Prime adoption has increased across all income brackets in each of the past six surveys. Our survey suggests 69M households have Prime memberships in the U.S.; while a staggering number, our non-teen surveys suggest similar levels. 63% of new Prime members are coming from the top 2 quintiles of household income.
0%
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70%
80%
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$21K-$41K $41K-$68K $68K-$112K $112K+
Amazon Prime Penetration by Household Income Fall 2014Spring 2015Fall 2015Spring 2016Fall 2016Spring 2017
0
10,000
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40,000
50,000
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Spring2013
Fall 2013 Spring2014
Fall 2014 Spring2015
Fall 2015 Spring2016
Fall 2016 Spring2017
Prime Members by Income Quintile (000s) $112K+$68K-$112K$41K-$68K$21K-$41K$0K-$21K
38 | Taking Stock With Teens
Teen iPhone Ownership Up Nicely iPhone ownership of 76% is highest rating ever with upside remaining–81% of teens say next phone will be an iPhone. Apple Watch interest remains modest with 13% of teens planning on buying an Apple Watch in the next 6 months vs. 11% in Spring 2016.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Spring-14 Spring-15 Spring-16 Spring-17
Apple Watch Intention
Own A Smartwatch
Plan to buy Apple Watch
39 | Taking Stock With Teens
DO YOU ALREADY OWN OR EXPECT YOUR HOUSEHOLD TO BUY THE PS4 OR XBOX ONE IN THE NEXT TWO YEARS?
Console Video Game Takeaways 75% of respondents anticipate buying a current gen console or already own one, compared to 76% in Fall 2016. New console ownership up to 58% vs. 54% in fall.
52%49%
65%
41%
33% 34%
26%37%
39%
Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015
Do you expect your household to buy the PS4 or Xbox One in the next two years?
Anticipate purchase Already own one
52% 49%
65%
41%33% 34%
26%22%
17%
26%37%
39% 52%54%
58%
Spring 2013 Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Spring 2016 Fall 2016 Spring 2017
Sales of Current Gen Consoles Outpacing Prior Cycle*Anticipate purchase Already own one
PS4 and Xbox One Launched Nov. 2013
40 | Taking Stock With Teens
HOW MUCH ARE TEENS SPENDING ANNUALLY ON VIDEO GAMES?
Console Video Game Takeaways Expected spend by male teens on video games is up 12% for Spring 2017, while total spend (male and female) is up 4% to $198, after declining 11% the prior year. Average video game spend by teens over the past 12 years is $158 Only food (24%) and clothing (16%) exceed male teen spending on video games (12%).
0%
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8%
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14%
$0
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$150
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$250
Sprin
g 20
11
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2011
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g 20
12
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2012
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g 20
13
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g 20
14
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2014
Sprin
g 20
15
Fall
2015
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g 20
16
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2016
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g 20
17
Video Game Spend (Male+Female) Video Game Spend Allocation (Male)
$198 - Expected Video Game Spend in 201712% - Budget Spent On Video Games in 2017
41 | Taking Stock With Teens
DO YOU PLAY GAMES ON YOUR MOBILE PHONE OR TABLET?
Teen Mobile Game Trends 73% play games on smartphone or tablet, compared with 77% in the fall. 28% of teens who play mobile games spend money in game (vs. 24% in the fall).
WHEN PLAYING GAMES ON YOUR MOBILE DEVICE, DO YOU BUY VIRTUAL GOODS LIKE ENERGY, COINS OR EXTRA LEVELS?
% of Students
Spring 2013
% of Students Fall 2013
% of Students
Spring 2014
% of Students Fall 2014
% of Students
Spring 2015
% of Students Fall 2015
% of Students
Spring 2016
% of Students Fall 2016
% of Students
Spring 2017
Yes 83% 81% 85% 80% 81% 79% 81% 77% 73%
No 17% 19% 15% 20% 19% 21% 19% 23% 27%
% of Students
Spring 2013
% of Students Fall 2013
% of Students
Spring 2014
% of Students Fall 2014
% of Students
Spring 2015
% of Students Fall 2015
% of Students
Spring 2016
% of Students Fall 2016
% of Students
Spring 2017
Yes 16% 18% 18% 22% 21% 24% 26% 24% 28%
No 84% 82% 82% 78% 79% 76% 74% 76% 72%
42 | Taking Stock With Teens
Video and Music Trends
Netflix and YouTube continue to dominate teens’ video consumption as Cable TV (23%) continues to lose share.
TEEN DAILY VIDEO CONSUMPTION
TEEN MUSIC CONSUMPTION ACROSS PLATFORMS
On-demand music services like Spotify continue to gain market share among teens (increased to 38% from 34%), as more traditional platforms and Pandora continue to lose share.
43 | Taking Stock With Teens
• Our survey points to another solid 12 months for the disney studio • Disney films dominated the most anticipated list with beauty and the beast, star wars, guardians of the galaxy 2 grabbing
the #2, #3 and #4 spots.
DIS Well Positioned Over The Next 12 Months
MOST ANTICIPATED FILMS IN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS
44 | Taking Stock With Teens
Analyst: Erinn Murphy ADS-GR (+): MINDSHARE ACCELERATION ACROSS GENDERS & CATEGORIES LIKELY FUELS MARKET SHARE GAINS
Adidas footwear mindshare doubled Y/Y from 4% to 8% across both income levels, while rising to the No. 1 spot for new brands worn by males (dethroning Nike, which held to spot since Fall 2014).
NKE (=/+): CONTINUING TO BENEFIT FROM ONGOING CATEGORY STRENGTH, BUT ADIDAS IS CLOSING THE GAP
Athletic brands were 41% of favorite teen apparel brands vs. 26% last Spring and 35% last Fall, driven in part by continued Nike mindshare gains in apparel. However, aggregate Nike footwear mindshare moderated slightly both sequentially and Y/Y.
UAA (-): ADIDAS’ RESURGENCE APPEARS TO BE CROWDING OUT MINDSHARE POTENTIAL FOR UNDER ARMOUR
Despite significant SKU expansion and reported category growth, male footwear mindshare has remained ~1% across both income groups in our past four surveys. Male apparel mindshare has flattened in recent surveys and the brand is still not registering with females In fact, not a single upper income female voted for Under Armour apparel in Spring 2017.
VFC (=/-): SOLID TRENDS FOR VANS TEMPERED BY GROWING COMPETITIVE PRESSURE ON THE NORTH FACE
Vans mindshare remains fairly steady and is trending in the right direction in apparel. However, Patagonia ranked No. 6 as a new brand worn by males outranked The North Face among upper-income athletic brands for the first time ever.
RL (-): PRIMARY VICTIM OF CONTINUED MIGRATION TO ATHLETIC FALLS TO MULTI-YEAR MINDSHARE LOWS
Apparel mindshare among upper-income males was 4% (lowest reading since recession) – down from 10% last Spring and 6% last Fall.
FOSL (-): KORS MODERATING, WHILE FASHION WATCH PURCHASE INTENT MIGRATES LOWER
Michael Kors (23% of FOSL revenue) watch mindshare declined to 15% mindshare from 22% last Spring and 17% last Fall. Traditional watch purchase intent (over the next six months) fell to 14% from 26% last Spring and 18% last Fall.
THE SPRING 2017 TEEN SURVEY RESULTS WERE INCREMENTALLY NEGATIVE FOR KORS, FOSL, VINEYARD VINES (PRIVATE). RESULTS WERE POSITIVE FOR KATE (NON-COVERED), LULU (NON-COVERED), PATAGONIA (PRIVATE).
Stock Highlights: Global Lifestyle and Fashion Brands
45 | Taking Stock With Teens
Analyst: Nicole Miller Regan
Stock Highlights: Restaurants
SBUX (=/+): REMAINS MOST PREFERRED BRAND AMONG AVERAGE INCOME TEENS
Starbucks maintains its position as the most preferred brand among average income teens across all geographies. Starbucks shares the position as most preferred brand among upper income teens although Chick-fil-A was technically able to edge Starbucks out for the No. 1 spot.
We remain confident in our long-term thesis based around proven global brand equity and an accelerating asset-light growth model – both of which generate strong cash flow in support of continued reinvestment into the business and an ongoing commitment to capital allocation.
CMG (=/+): SURVEY SUGGESTS EVIDENCE OF MODEST BRAND IMPROVEMENT
Chipotle slipped to the third most preferred brand among upper income teens and tied for the position of third most preferred brand among average income teens (vs. tied for number four in Fall 2016 survey). Although subtle, we note the relative improvement and believe that the sequential move could suggest that trends are broadly mirroring the brand’s efforts to drive traffic and awareness.
At the cuisine level, the company remained the overwhelmingly most preferred brand within the Hispanic cuisine category with the results being at relatively similar preference (or % mindshare) sequentially among both upper and average income teens but still below prior year periods.
We reiterate our bull positioning grounded by when (not if) improvement occurs, the company has the ability to leverage strong unit-level economics, a healthy long-term unit growth pipeline, and its human capital investments.
MCD (=): SURVEY RESULTS HIGHLIGHT ONGOING COMPETITIVE INTRUSION AMONG AVERAGE INCOME TEENS
McDonald’s showed steady mind share levels among upper income teens however survey results highlight continued competitive intrusion from Chick-fil-A (specifically among average income teens). McDonald’s brand results remain generally strong (in the top three range among average income teens) while Chick-Fil-A continues to move higher.
McDonald’s lead as the most preferred hamburger brand was maintained in the latest survey cycle. That said, we note that brand preference remains below peak levels seen in prior survey periods and also saw strong moves from Five Guys and Red Robin. We believe operational, culinary and technology initiatives position McDonald’s for continued improvement over the next several years.
46 | Taking Stock With Teens
Analyst: Sam Kemp FB (+): ENGAGEMENT DECLINES STABILIZE; INSTAGRAM HOLDING ITS OWN AGAINST SNAPCHAT
Teens showed little change in the rate of engagement and the relative level of preference for core Facebook: 52% of teens report using Facebook in the past month and 33% indicate Facebook as a top 3 social network – both essentially unchanged. We see this as a relative positive for FB given the increased competition from both Snapchat and its own Instagram unit. We believe that teens are continuing to carve out separate use cases for Facebook, Instagram and Snapchat that, in the near-term, provide enough differentiation to not take time spent from one another.
Instagram held its own in our Spring 2017 survey – 79% of teens report using Instagram within the past month and 76% indicate it is one of their top 3 favorite networks. While Snapchat is teens’ favorite platform, we believe Instagram’s core use case differs significantly from Snapchat’s and creates a defensive moat. Moreover, Instagram has recently rolled out Snapchat-like features that have the potential to reverse the tide of preference at Snapchat.
Importantly, Instagram is teens’ most favored channel to hear about new products and promotions from retailers, which we use as a proxy for brand/ad friendliness; 54% of teens indicated Instagram is one of the best channels to reach them, above FB at 24%, Twitter at 35%, Snapchat at 42% and even email at 53%. We believe this is a bullish sign for the potential for higher ad load, click-through, and conversion rates on Instagram ads.
SNAP (=): SNAPCHAT REMAINS THE KING, BUT STAYING SIDELINED ON COMPETITIVE THREATS
Snapchat remains the king of teens’ social lives, with 81% indicating use in the past month (vs. 80% in Fall 2016) and 79% naming it as a top three social platform (vs. 76%). Teens are clearly engaged with Snapchat’s unique approach to social (narrow network, direct messaging), and we believe this provides near-term support to Snapchat daily active user (DAU) growth in Q1’17. We are remaining Neutral on SNAP as we believe shares have priced in an extraordinarily strong monetization and solid user ramp, but the potential for headwinds from diversifying use cases at Facebook, Messenger and Instagram is significant.
Stock Highlights: Internet
47 | Taking Stock With Teens
Analyst: Mike Olson AMZN (+): SURVEY SHOWS INCREASED MINDSHARE & INCREASING PRIME ADOPTION
Amazon gained 200bps of teen mindshare y/y at 43% mindshare in the U.S. Prime adoption continues to be strong; survey implies ~69M U.S. households have Prime.
EBAY (=): MODEST DECLINE IN MINDSHARE
eBay mindshare dipped modestly to 2.4% from 3.5% from our Fall-16 survey, which is in line with our view of the challenges in shifting brand perception for an entrenched online offering, such as this. We remain Neutral as EBAY’s current valuation (9x ’18E EBITDA) fairly represents the company’s growth opportunity, in our view.
AAPL (+): TEENS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IPHONE OWNERSHIP
Apple continued to grow smartphone share among teens with 76% of teens owning an iPhone vs 74% in Fall-16. We view the survey as a positive data point on iPhone 7 demand and excitement around the upcoming launch of the 10th anniversary iPhone (iPhone X).
ATVI(+), EA(+), TTWO(+): SOLID UPTAKE OF CURRENT GEN CONSOLES, EXPECTED SPEND ON VIDEO GAMES MOVES HIGHER
Video game publishers (ATVI, EA, TTWO) will be beneficiaries of a strong uptake of next-gen consoles with 75% of respondents expecting to buy a PS4 or Xbox One within the next two years or already owning one (essentially unchanged from 76% in Fall-16). We also note that the proportion of respondents who plan to digitally download 50% or more titles on consoles has increased to 45% for Spring-17 from 37% in Fall-15, when we first included the question in our survey.
ZNGA (=): SURVEY POINTS TO DECLINES IN MOBILE GAME INTEREST, BUT INCREASED WILLINGNESS TO SPEND
Mobile gaming interest declined for the second consecutive survey from all-time highs recorded in Spring 2016. However, willingness to spend in-game rebounded to an all-time high. While we view mobile game interest as a slight negative for ZNGA (Neutral), we note that our results echo a trend of declining DAUs offset by increased ARPU cited by mobile game publishers.
Stock Highlights: Consumer Technology & ecommerce
48 | Taking Stock With Teens
Analyst: Stan Meyers DIS (+): SURVEY POINTS TO ANOTHER SOLID 12-MONTH RUN FOR THE DISNEY STUDIO
• Our survey points to another solid 12 months for the Disney Studio.
• Disney films dominated the most anticipated list with Beauty and the Beast, Star Wars, Guardians of the Galaxy 2 grabbing the #2, #3 and #4 spots.
LGF (+): LIONSGATE WELL-POSITIONED AMID CONTINUED VIDEO CONSUMPTION FRAGMENTATION • Viewership among teens continues to fragment creating more demand for content across traditional and emerging platforms.
• Netflix and YouTube continue to dominate teens’ video consumption as Cable TV continues to lose share to 23%.
• These trends bode well for Lionsgate, which produces high quality long-form content across all platforms.
P (-): TEENS CONTINUE TO PIVOT AWAY FROM PANDORA AND INTO ON-DEMAND MUSIC SERVICES • Pandora continues to lose teen mindshare as the go-to music platform, as they shift to on-demand platforms such as Spotify and
Apple Music.
• Teens spent 14% of their time listening to Pandora – down from 15% in the fall. Other on-demand services like Spotify jumped to 38% from 34% in the fall and 27% a year ago.
• We believe this trend is already built into the stock and see a great entry point ahead of its on-demand product launch.
Stock Highlights: Media and Entertainment
49 | Taking Stock With Teens
SPEAKER COVERAGE
Erinn Murphy Global Fashion & Lifestyle Brands
Nicole Miller Regan Restaurants
Sam Kemp Internet
Michael Olson Online Content
Stan Meyers Media & Entertainment
Questions & Answers
51 | Taking Stock With Teens
West, 10%
Midwest, 28%
Northeast, 11%
South, 49%
0%
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10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
View
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Getting Better Staying the Same Getting Worse
Project Framework & Key Demographics ALL TEENS
Fall 2013 Spring 2014
Fall 2014 Spring 2015
Fall 2015 Spring 2016
Fall 2016 Spring 2017
Teens Surveyed 8,650 7,500 7,200 6,200 9,400 6,500 10,000 5,500Gender - Female 47% 47% 47% 49% 44% 44% 45% 45%Gender - Male 53% 53% 53% 51% 56% 56% 55% 55%Average Age 16.2 16.4 16.0 16.3 16.0 16.5 16.0 16.4Percentage Of Teens Part-Time Employe 35% 33% 35% 35% 36% 39% 34% 39%Average Household Income $67,000 $63,000 $73,000 $67,000 $68,000 $62,500 $68,800 $66,100
UPPER-INCOME TEEN SURVEYFall 2013 Spring
2014Fall 2014 Spring
2015Fall 2015 Spring
2016Fall 2016 Spring
2017Teens Surveyed - Upper Income 2,400 1,300 2,200 1,400 2,700 1,300 2,800 1,400Gender - Female 44% 43% 46% 46% 41% 46% 41% 42%Gender - Male 56% 57% 54% 54% 59% 54% 59% 58%Average Age 16.1 16.2 16.1 16.2 15.9 16.5 15.8 16.4Percentage Of Teens Part-Time Employe 34% 33% 36% 36% 33% 40% 31% 39%Average Household Income $105,000 $103,000 $109,000 $104,000 $107,000 $101,000 $109,000 $100,000
AVERAGE-INCOME TEEN SURVEYFall 2013 Spring
2014Fall 2014 Spring
2015Fall 2015 Spring
2016Fall 2016 Spring
2017Teens Surveyed - Average Income 6,250 6,200 5,000 4,800 6,700 5,200 7,200 4,100Gender - Female 49% 48% 48% 49% 45% 44% 46% 46%Gender - Male 51% 52% 52% 51% 55% 56% 54% 54%Average Age 16.2 16.4 16.0 16.4 16.1 16.4 16.0 16.4Percentage Of Teens Part-Time Employe 35% 33% 35% 34% 37% 39% 36% 39%Average Household Income $53,000 $55,000 $56,000 $56,000 $52,000 $53,000 $53,000 $55,000
52 | Taking Stock With Teens
Spending by Category by Income Demographic SPENDING BY CATEGORY (UPPER-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
SPENDING BY CATEGORY (AVERAGE-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
Spending by Category - All Teens Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Spring 2016 Fall 2016 Spring 2017Video Games / Systems 7% 7% 7% 8% 7% 7% 7% 8%Music / Movies (DVD/CD) 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%Electronics / Gadgets 7% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7%Clothing 21% 21% 21% 20% 20% 20% 21% 19%Accessories / Personal Care / Cosmetics 9% 9% 10% 10% 9% 10% 9% 9%Shoes 9% 9% 8% 7% 9% 8% 8% 8%Food 20% 21% 20% 23% 22% 22% 23% 24%Concerts / Movies / Sporting Events 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 6% 6%Car 9% 9% 9% 8% 7% 9% 6% 9%Books / Magazines 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1%Furniture / Room Accessories 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 2%Other 3% 3% 3% 4% 3% 3% 4% 4%Total Fashion (Clothing, Access & Footwear) 39% 38% 39% 36% 38% 38% 38% 36%
Spending by Category - All Teens Fall 2013 Spring 2014 Fall 2014 Spring 2015 Fall 2015 Spring 2016 Fall 2016 Spring 2017Video Games / Systems 7% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8%Music / Movies (DVD/CD) 6% 7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 5% 5%Electronics / Gadgets 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 7%Clothing 21% 21% 20% 20% 20% 18% 20% 19%Accessories / Personal Care / Cosmetics 11% 11% 10% 11% 10% 11% 11% 10%Shoes 10% 10% 9% 9% 10% 9% 10% 9%Food 16% 18% 17% 21% 19% 20% 21% 22%Concerts / Movies / Sporting Events 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4%Car 10% 9% 9% 8% 9% 9% 8% 9%Books / Magazines 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Furniture / Room Accessories 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%Other 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4% 4%Total Fashion (Clothing, Access & Footwear) 42% 41% 40% 40% 39% 38% 40% 39%
53 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Fashion Trends Right Now TOP FASHION TRENDS RIGHT NOW (UPPER-INCOME, MALES)
TOP FASHION TRENDS RIGHT NOW (UPPER-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike/Jordans 18% 1 Nike/Jordans 20% 1 Nike/Jordans 19% 1 Nike / Jordans 18%2 Preppy 8% 2 Jogger Pants 12% 2 Jogger Pants 8% 2 Jogger Pants 8%
Ralph Lauren 8% 3 Ralph Lauren 6% 3 Vineyard Vines 7% 3 Athletic Wear 6%4 Vineyard Vines 8% 4 Preppy 6% 4 Athletic Wear 6% 4 Khakis / Chinos 5%5 Jogger Pants 7% 5 Athletic Wear 5% 5 Khakis/Chinos 6% 5 Adidas 4%6 Boat Shoes 5% 6 Hair / Man Buns 5% 6 Preppy 6% 6 Leggings / lululemon 4%
Khakis/Chinos 5% Khakis/Chinos 5% 7 Ralph Lauren 4% 7 Ripped Jeans 3%8 Athletic Wear 4% 8 Vineyard Vines 4% 8 Tall Socks 4% 8 Preppy 3%9 Tall Socks 4% 9 Boat Shoes 3% 9 Boat Shoes 3% 9 Jeans 3%
10 Shoes 3% 10 Tall Socks 2% 10 Adidas 2% 10 Timberland 2%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Leggings/lululemon 24% 1 Leggings/lululemon 23% 1 Leggings/lululemon 25% 1 Leggings / lululemon 25%2 Nike 5% 2 Victoria's Secret 7% 2 Birkenstock 6% 2 Chokers 11%3 Birkenstock 5% 3 Converse 6% 3 Victoria's Secret 5% 3 Converse 5%4 Converse 4% 4 Nike 6% 4 Converse 4% 4 Victoria's Secret 4%5 Victoria's Secret 4% 5 Boots 3% 5 Ripped Jeans 4% 5 Adidas 4%6 Crop Tops 3% 6 Crop Tops 3% 6 Jeans 3% 6 Ripped Jeans 4%7 Short Shorts 2% 7 Athletic Wear 2% 7 Adidas 3% 7 Jeans 3%8 Rompers 2% 8 Jeans 2% 8 Bralettes 3% 8 Boots 3%
Vineyard Vines 2% 9 Michael Kors 2% 9 Nike 3% 9 Nike / Jordans 2%10 Dresses 2% 10 Adidas 2% 10 Chokers 3% 10 UGG Australia 2%
54 | Taking Stock With Teens
Uptrending Brands BRANDS STARTING TO WEAR (UPPER-INCOME, MALES)
BRANDS STARTING TO WEAR (UPPER-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 13% 1 Nike 11% 1 Nike 13% 1 Adidas 10%2 Ralph Lauren 11% 2 Ralph Lauren 10% 2 Ralph Lauren 10% 2 Nike 9%3 Adidas 6% 3 Adidas 7% 3 Adidas 8% 3 Ralph Lauren 6%4 Vineyard Vines 6% 4 American Eagle 4% 4 American Eagle 5% 4 American Eagle 5%5 Under Armour 4% 5 Vineyard Vines 3% 5 Vineyard Vines 5% 5 Under Armour 4%6 American Eagle 4% 6 Under Armour 3% 6 Under Armour 5% 6 Patagonia 3%7 Vans 3% 7 Vans 3% 7 Vans 3% 7 Vans 3%8 H&M 2% 8 Hollister 2% 8 H&M 2% 8 lululemon 2%9 Tommy Hilfiger 2% 9 New Balance 2% 9 Lululemon 2% 9 Gucci 2%
10 RVCA 2% 10 Four Brands Tied 2% 10 Hollister 2% 10 Vineyard Vines 2%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Free People 7% 1 American Eagle 7% 1 American Eagle 9% 1 American Eagle 7%2 Brandy Melville 5% 2 Nike 6% 2 Urban Outfitters 5% 2 Urban Outfitters 6%3 lululemon 5% 3 Forever 21 5% 3 Free People 5% 3 Nike 6%4 Forever 21 4% 4 H&M 4% Nike 5% 4 Forever 21 5%5 American Eagle 4% 5 Victoria's Secret 4% 5 lululemon 4% 5 Adidas 4%6 PacSun 4% 6 Express 4% 6 Victoria's Secret 4% lululemon 4%7 Victoria's Secret 4% 7 Adidas 3% 7 Adidas 4% 7 Victoria's Secret 4%8 Urban Outfitters 3% Free People 3% 8 PacSun 4% 8 H&M 4%9 Nike 3% Hollister 3% 9 Forever 21 4% 9 PacSun 3%
10 H&M 3% lululemon 3% 10 Brandy Melville 3% 10 Free People 3%
55 | Taking Stock With Teens
Downtrending Brands BRANDS NO LONGER WORN (UPPER-INCOME, MALES)
BRANDS NO LONGER WORN (UPPER-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Gap 13% 1 Gap 13% 1 Adidas 10% 1 Under Armour 11%2 Adidas 10% 2 Adidas 9% 2 Gap 10% 2 Gap 10%3 Abercrombie & Fitch 8% 3 Abercrombie & Fitch 7% 3 Under Armour 7% 3 Adidas 9%4 Under Armour 6% 4 Nike 7% 4 Nike 6% 4 Nike 7%5 Nike 5% 5 Under Armour 6% 5 Reebok 6% 5 Reebok 6%6 Aeropostale 4% 6 Hollister 5% 6 Skechers 5% 6 Aeropostale 6%7 Hollister 4% 7 Reebok 5% 7 Puma 5% 7 Puma 4%8 Reebok 4% 8 Aeropostale 4% 8 Abercrombie & Fitch 4% 8 American Eagle 4%9 Skechers 4% 9 American Eagle 4% 9 Hollister 4% 9 Hollister 4%
10 Ralph Lauren 3% 10 Skechers 3% 10 Aeropostale 3% 10 Skechers 3%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Aeropostale 22% 1 Aeropostale 26% 1 Justice 29% 1 Aeropostale 26%2 Justice 20% 2 Justice 20% 2 Aeropostale 17% 2 Justice 21%3 Abercrombie & Fitch 18% 3 Abercrombie & Fitch 12% 3 Abercrombie & Fitch 12% 3 Hollister 10%4 Hollister 8% 4 Hollister 9% 4 Hollister 9% 4 Abercrombie & Fitch 9%5 Gap 7% 5 Gap 5% 5 Gap 4% 5 American Eagle 3%6 Old Navy 2% 6 Old Navy 3% 6 Forever 21 3% 6 Forever 21 3%7 American Eagle 2% 7 Forever 21 2% 7 American Eagle 1% 7 Old Navy 2%8 Forever 21 2% 8 American Eagle 2% Old Navy 1% 8 Gap 2%9 dELiA*s 2% 9 Nike 2% 9 H&M 1% 9 Adidas 2%
10 Target 1% 10 Target 1% Ralph Lauren 1% 10 Nike 1%Victoria's Secret 1%
56 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Clothing Brands Among Upper-Income PREFERRED CLOTHING BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
PREFERRED CLOTHING BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, MALES)
PREFERRED CLOTHING BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 27% 1 Nike 21% 1 Nike 29% 1 Nike 31%2 Forever 21 7% 2 American Eagle 8% 2 American Eagle 9% 2 American Eagle 10%3 American Eagle 6% 3 Forever 21 7% 3 Forever 21 5% 3 Forever 21 5%4 Ralph Lauren 5% 4 Ralph Lauren 6% 4 Ralph Lauren 4% 4 lululemon 3%5 Urban Outfitters 3% 5 Hollister 4% 5 Urban Outfitters 3% 5 H&M 3%6 PacSun 2% 6 PacSun 3% 6 H&M 3% Adidas 3%7 Free People 2% 7 Urban Outfitters 3% 7 PacSun 2% 7 Hollister 2%8 H&M 2% Victoria's Secret 3% 8 Adidas 2% 8 Urban Outfitters 2%9 Vineyard Vines 2% 9 H&M 3% 9 Vineyard Vines 2% Vans 2%
10 Nordstrom 2% 10 Adidas 2% 10 Victoria's Secret 2% 10 PacSun 2%Ralph Lauren 2%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 42% 1 Nike 33% 1 Nike 44% 1 Nike 47%2 Ralph Lauren 8% 2 Ralph Lauren 10% 2 Ralph Lauren 6% 2 Adidas 4%3 American Eagle 4% 3 American Eagle 5% 3 American Eagle 4% 3 American Eagle 4%4 Vineyard Vines 3% 4 Adidas 3% 4 Adidas 3% 4 Ralph Lauren 4%5 Adidas 2% 5 PacSun 3% 5 Vineyard Vines 3% 5 Vans 3%6 H&M 2% 6 Hollister 2% 6 H&M 3% 6 Under Armour 3%7 PacSun 2% 7 Abercrombie & Fitch 2% 7 Vans 2% 7 H&M 2%8 Abercrombie & Fitch 2% 8 Vans 2% 8 Under Armour 2% Supreme 2%9 Kohl's 1% 9 Supreme 2% 9 PacSun 1% 9 Hollister 2%
10 Hollister 1% 10 Vineyard Vines 2% Hollister 1% 10 Vineyard Vines 2%Vans 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Forever 21 15% 1 Forever 21 14% 1 American Eagle 17% 1 American Eagle 18%2 American Eagle 10% 2 American Eagle 11% 2 Forever 21 11% 2 Forever 21 11%3 Urban Outfitters 7% 3 Nike 7% 3 Nike 7% 3 Nike 8%4 Nike 6% 4 Victoria's Secret 6% 4 Urban Outfitters 7% 4 lululemon 6%5 Free People 6% 5 Urban Outfitters 5% 5 Victoria's Secret 5% 5 Urban Outfitters 5%6 Nordstrom 4% 6 Hollister 5% 6 H&M 3% 6 Victoria's Secret 5%7 Victoria's Secret 4% 7 PacSun 4% 7 PacSun 3% 7 H&M 4%8 PacSun 4% 8 H&M 4% 8 lululemon 3% 8 Hollister 4%9 lululemon 3% 9 Nordstrom 3% 9 Brandy Melville 3% PacSun 4%
10 Hollister 3% 10 Charlotte Russe 2% 10 Free People 3% 10 Free People 2%Nordstrom 3%
57 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Clothing Brands Among Average-Income PREFERRED CLOTHING BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
PREFERRED CLOTHING BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, MALES)
PREFERRED CLOTHING BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 21% 1 Nike 23% 1 Nike 27% 1 Nike 27%2 American Eagle 8% 2 American Eagle 9% 2 American Eagle 8% 2 American Eagle 10%3 Forever 21 6% 3 Forever 21 5% 3 Forever 21 6% 3 Forever 21 5%4 Ralph Lauren 5% 4 Ralph Lauren 5% 4 Ralph Lauren 5% 4 Ralph Lauren 4%5 Hollister 4% 5 Victoria's Secret 4% 5 Hollister 3% 5 Victoria's Secret 4%6 Victoria's Secret 4% 6 Hollister 4% 6 Victoria's Secret 3% 6 Hollister 3%7 PacSun 2% 7 H&M 2% 7 H&M 3% 7 H&M 3%8 H&M 2% 8 Under Armour 2% 8 Adidas 2% 8 Adidas 3%9 Hot Topic 2% 9 PacSun 2% 9 rue21 2% 9 PacSun 3%
10 Aeropostale 2% 10 Aeropostale 2% 10 PacSun 2% 10 rue21 2%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 33% 1 Nike 34% 1 Nike 40% 1 Nike 40%2 Ralph Lauren 8% 2 Ralph Lauren 8% 2 Ralph Lauren 7% 2 Ralph Lauren 6%3 American Eagle 7% 3 American Eagle 7% 3 American Eagle 5% 3 American Eagle 5%4 Hollister 3% 4 Under Armour 3% 4 Adidas 3% 4 Adidas 5%5 Under Armour 3% 5 Hollister 3% 5 Hollister 3% 5 Hollister 3%6 PacSun 2% 6 PacSun 2% 6 Under Armour 3% 6 H&M 3%7 Adidas 2% 7 H&M 2% 7 H&M 2% 7 PacSun 2%8 Vans 2% 8 Adidas 2% 8 Vans 2% Under Armour 2%9 Levi's 2% 9 Aeropostale 2% 9 PacSun 2% 9 Vans 2%
10 H&M 2% 10 Vans 2% 10 Levi's 2% 10 Supreme 2%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Forever 21 12% 1 Forever 21 11% 1 American Eagle 12% 1 American Eagle 15%2 American Eagle 10% 2 American Eagle 11% 2 Forever 21 12% 2 Forever 21 11%3 Victoria's Secret 8% 3 Nike 10% 3 Nike 12% 3 Nike 11%4 Nike 7% 4 Victoria's Secret 10% 4 Victoria's Secret 7% 4 Victoria's Secret 8%5 Hollister 6% 5 Hollister 4% 5 rue21 4% 5 Hollister 4%6 PacSun 3% 6 rue21 3% 6 Hollister 4% 6 rue21 4%7 rue21 3% 7 H&M 2% 7 H&M 3% 7 H&M 3%8 H&M 3% 8 Hot Topic 2% 8 PacSun 3% 8 PacSun 3%9 Hot Topic 3% 9 Charlotte Russe 2% 9 Hot Topic 2% 9 lululemon 3%
10 Aeropostale 2% 10 Aeropostale 2% Ralph Lauren 2% 10 Hot Topic 2%
58 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Footwear Brands Among Upper-Income PREFERRED FOOTWEAR BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
PREFERRED FOOTWEAR BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, MALES)
PREFERRED FOOTWEAR BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 50% 1 Nike 48% 1 Nike 51% 1 Nike 52%2 Vans 9% 2 Vans 10% 2 Vans 9% 2 Vans 9%3 Converse 7% 3 Converse 7% 3 Converse 7% 3 Adidas 8%4 Sperry 4% 4 Adidas 4% 4 Adidas 6% 4 Converse 6%5 Steve Madden 3% 5 Sperry 3% 5 Steve Madden 2% 5 Steve Madden 3%6 DSW 3% 6 DSW 3% 6 Sperry 2% 6 Sperry 2%7 Adidas 2% 7 Steve Madden 3% 7 DSW 2% 7 DSW 2%8 Foot Locker 1% 8 Foot Locker 2% 8 Birkenstock 2% 8 Foot Locker 1%9 Birkenstock 1% 9 UGG 1% 9 Foot Locker 1% 9 Birkenstock 1%
Nordstrom 1% 10 TOMS 1% 10 Nordstrom 1% 10 Payless ShoeSource 1%UGG 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 28% 1 Nike 32% 1 Nike 30% 1 Nike 33%2 Converse 12% 2 Converse 14% 2 Converse 15% 2 Converse 14%3 Vans 10% 3 Vans 9% 3 Vans 7% 3 Vans 9%4 Steve Madden 8% 4 DSW 7% 4 Steve Madden 5% 4 Adidas 7%5 DSW 7% 5 Steve Madden 5% 5 Adidas 5% 5 Steve Madden 6%6 Birkenstock 3% 6 Adidas 3% 6 DSW 5% 6 DSW 5%7 Nordstrom 3% 7 UGG 3% 7 Birkenstock 4% 7 Birkenstock 2%8 Tory Burch 3% 8 Sperry 2% 8 Nordstrom 2% 8 UGG 2%9 UGG 2% 9 TOMS 2% 9 UGG 2% 9 Payless ShoeSource 2%
10 Sperry 2% 10 Foot Locker 2% 10 Michael Kors 1% 10 Nordstrom 2%Payless ShoeSource 2% Sperry 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 66% 1 Nike 63% 1 Nike 66% 1 Nike 67%2 Vans 9% 2 Vans 10% 2 Vans 11% 2 Vans 9%3 Sperry 5% 3 Adidas 6% 3 Adidas 6% 3 Adidas 8%4 Adidas 3% 4 Sperry 4% 4 Sperry 3% 4 Sperry Top-Sider 3%5 Converse 2% 5 Converse 2% 5 Foot Locker 2% 5 Foot Locker 1%6 Foot Locker 2% 6 Foot Locker 2% 6 Converse 2% 6 Converse 1%7 New Balance 1% 7 Asics 1% 7 Under Armour 1% New Balance 1%8 Ralph Lauren 1% 8 Champs Sports 1% 8 ASICS 1% 8 Under Armour 1%9 Under Armour 1% 9 Clarks 1% New Balance 1% 9 Skechers 1%
10 Champs Sports 0% 10 Under Armour 0% 10 Finish Line 0% 10 Ralph Lauren 0%Puma 0% New Balance 0%
59 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Footwear Brands Among Average-Income PREFERRED FOOTWEAR BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
PREFERRED FOOTWEAR BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, MALES)
PREFERRED FOOTWEAR BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 51% 1 Nike 54% 1 Nike 53% 1 Nike 50%2 Vans 10% 2 Vans 9% 2 Vans 9% 2 Vans 9%3 Converse 6% 3 Converse 6% 3 Converse 7% 3 Adidas 8%4 Sperry 3% 4 Adidas 4% 4 Adidas 5% 4 Converse 6%5 Adidas 2% 5 Sperry 2% 5 Foot Locker 3% 5 Foot Locker 2%6 Foot Locker 2% 6 Foot Locker 2% 6 Sperry 2% 6 Sperry 2%7 Steve Madden 1% 7 Steve Madden 1% 7 Birkenstock 2% 7 Steve Madden 1%8 Payless ShoeSource 1% 8 DSW 1% 8 Steve Madden 1% 8 Birkenstock 1%9 DSW 1% 9 Under Armour 1% 9 Payless ShoeSource 1% DSW 1%
10 Birkenstock 1% 10 Journeys 1% 10 Under Armour 1% 10 Under Armour 1%Payless ShoeSource 1%UGG 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 35% 1 Nike 41% 1 Nike 38% 1 Nike 37%2 Converse 12% 2 Converse 11% 2 Converse 12% 2 Converse 12%3 Vans 11% 3 Vans 8% 3 Vans 9% 3 Vans 11%4 Steve Madden 3% 4 Steve Madden 3% 4 Adidas 4% 4 Adidas 6%5 Sperry 2% 5 Adidas 3% 5 Birkenstock 3% 5 Steve Madden 3%6 DSW 2% 6 DSW 2% 6 Foot Locker 2% 6 Birkenstock 2%7 Payless ShoeSource 2% 7 UGG 2% 7 Steve Madden 2% DSW 2%8 Birkenstock 2% 8 Payless ShoeSource 2% 8 Sperry 2% Foot Locker 2%9 Journeys 2% 9 Birkenstock 2% 9 Payless ShoeSource 2% 9 Journeys 1%
10 UGG 2% 10 Foot Locker 2% 10 DSW 1% 10 Sperry 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 65% 1 Nike 65% 1 Nike 65% 1 Nike 61%2 Vans 9% 2 Vans 9% 2 Vans 9% 2 Adidas 9%3 Adidas 4% 3 Adidas 4% 3 Adidas 6% 3 Vans 8%4 Sperry 3% 4 Converse 2% 4 Foot Locker 3% 4 Sperry 3%5 Converse 2% 5 Sperry 2% 5 Sperry 2% 5 Foot Locker 2%6 Foot Locker 2% 6 Foot Locker 2% 6 Converse 2% 6 Converse 2%7 Ralph Lauren 1% 7 Under Armour 1% 7 Under Armour 1% 7 Under Armour 1%8 Under Armour 1% 8 Ariat 1% 8 New Balance 1% 8 New Balance 1%9 Ariat 1% 9 ASICS 1% 9 ASICS 1% 9 Ariat 1%
10 DC Shoes 1% 10 Ralph Lauren 1% 10 Ralph Lauren 1% Ralph Lauren 1%Skechers 1%
60 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Athletic Clothing Brands Among Upper-Income
PREFERRED ATHLETIC CLOTHING BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
PREFERRED ATHLETIC CLOTHING BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, MALES)
PREFERRED ATHLETIC CLOTHING BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 72% 1 Nike 71% 1 Nike 71% 1 Nike 69%2 lululemon 7% 2 Adidas 7% 2 lululemon 7% 2 Adidas 8%3 Under Armour 6% 3 Under Armour 5% 3 Adidas 7% 3 lululemon 7%4 Adidas 4% 4 lululemon 5% 4 Under Armour 6% 4 Under Armour 7%5 The North Face 1% 5 The North Face 1% 5 Athleta 1% 5 Patagonia 1%
The North Face 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 67% 1 Nike 69% 1 Nike 65% 1 Nike 65%2 lululemon 15% 2 lululemon 9% 2 lululemon 15% 2 lululemon 14%3 Under Armour 5% 3 Adidas 5% 3 Adidas 7% 3 Adidas 9%4 Adidas 3% 4 Under Armour 4% 4 Under Armour 4% 4 Under Armour 3%5 The North Face 1% 5 Athleta 2% 5 Athleta 1% 5 Fabletics 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 75% 1 Nike 73% 1 Nike 76% 1 Nike 71%2 Under Armour 6% 2 Adidas 8% 2 Under Armour 7% 2 Under Armour 10%3 Adidas 5% 3 Under Armour 7% 3 Adidas 7% 3 Adidas 6%4 Bauer 1% 4 The North Face 2% 4 lululemon 1% 4 lululemon 2%5 The North Face 1% 5 Bauer 1% 5 Columbia 1% 5 Bauer 1%
Patagonia 1%
61 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Athletic Clothing Brands Among Average-Income PREFERRED ATHLETIC CLOTHING BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
PREFERRED ATHLETIC CLOTHING BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, MALES)
PREFERRED ATHLETIC CLOTHING BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 70% 1 Nike 69% 1 Nike 72% 1 Nike 69%2 Under Armour 10% 2 Under Armour 10% 2 Under Armour 9% 2 Adidas 9%3 Adidas 5% 3 Adidas 5% 3 Adidas 7% 3 Under Armour 8%4 lululemon 2% 4 lululemon 2% 4 lululemon 2% 4 lululemon 3%5 The North Face 1% 5 The North Face 1% 5 Victoria's Secret 1% 5 The North Face 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 72% 1 Nike 70% 1 Nike 73% 1 Nike 70%2 Under Armour 8% 2 Under Armour 9% 2 Under Armour 7% 2 Adidas 8%3 lululemon 4% 3 Adidas 4% 3 Adidas 6% 3 lululemon 6%4 Adidas 4% 4 lululemon 4% 4 lululemon 5% 4 Under Armour 6%5 The North Face 1% 5 Victoria's Secret 1% 5 Victoria's Secret 1% 5 The North Face 1%
Victoria's Secret 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 69% 1 Nike 68% 1 Nike 71% 1 Nike 69%2 Under Armour 11% 2 Under Armour 12% 2 Under Armour 11% 2 Under Armour 10%3 Adidas 6% 3 Adidas 6% 3 Adidas 8% 3 Adidas 10%4 The North Face 1% 4 The North Face 1% 4 Columbia 1% 4 lululemon 1%5 Mossy Oak 0% 5 Columbia 0% The North Face 1% 5 The North Face 1%
62 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Athletic Footwear Brands Among Upper-Income PREFERRED ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
PREFERRED ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, MALES)
PREFERRED ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR BRANDS (UPPER-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 83% 1 Nike 81% 1 Nike 83% 1 Nike 80%2 Adidas 4% 2 Adidas 6% 2 Adidas 7% 2 Adidas 8%3 ASICS 2% 3 ASICS 2% 3 ASICS 2% 3 New Balance 2%4 New Balance 2% 4 New Balance 1% New Balance 2% 4 ASICS 2%5 Under Armour 1% 5 Under Armour 1% 5 Under Armour 1% Under Armour 2%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 87% 1 Nike 85% 1 Nike 86% 1 Nike 82%2 Adidas 3% 2 Adidas 4% 2 Adidas 5% 2 Adidas 8%3 ASICS 2% 3 ASICS 2% 3 ASICS 2% 3 ASICS 3%4 Mizuno 1% 4 Brooks 1% 4 New Balance 1% 4 New Balance 1%5 New Balance 1% 5 Mizuno 1% 5 Brooks 1% 5 Brooks 1%
Saucony 1%Under Armour 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 80% 1 Nike 78% 1 Nike 80% 1 Nike 78%2 Adidas 6% 2 Adidas 8% 2 Adidas 8% 2 Adidas 8%3 New Balance 2% 3 New Balance 2% 3 New Balance 2% 3 Under Armour 2%4 Under Armour 2% 4 Under Armour 2% 4 Under Armour 2% 4 New Balance 2%5 ASICS 2% 5 ASICS 1% 5 ASICS 1% 5 ASICS 1%
63 | Taking Stock With Teens
Top Athletic Footwear Brands Among Average-Income
PREFERRED ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, ALL TEENS)
PREFERRED ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, MALES)
PREFERRED ATHLETIC FOOTWEAR BRANDS (AVERAGE-INCOME, FEMALES)
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 81% 1 Nike 80% 1 Nike 82% 1 Nike 80%2 Adidas 4% 2 Adidas 5% 2 Adidas 6% 2 Adidas 8%3 Under Armour 3% 3 Under Armour 3% 3 Under Armour 2% 3 Under Armour 2%4 ASICS 2% 4 ASICS 1% 4 ASICS 1% 4 New Balance 2%5 New Balance 1% 5 New Balance 1% 5 New Balance 1% 5 ASICS 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 84% 1 Nike 84% 1 Nike 86% 1 Nike 83%2 Adidas 3% 2 Adidas 4% 2 Adidas 5% 2 Adidas 7%3 ASICS 2% 3 Under Armour 1% 3 ASICS 1% 3 Under Armour 1%4 Under Armour 1% 4 ASICS 1% 4 Under Armour 1% 4 ASICS 1%5 Mizuno 1% 5 Mizuno 1% 5 Brooks 1% 5 New Balance 1%
Rank Fall 2015 % Rank Spring 2016 % Rank Fall 2016 % Rank Spring 2017 %1 Nike 78% 1 Nike 77% 1 Nike 78% 1 Nike 77%2 Adidas 6% 2 Adidas 6% 2 Adidas 8% 2 Adidas 10%3 Under Armour 4% 3 Under Armour 3% 3 Under Armour 3% 3 Under Armour 3%4 ASICS 1% 4 New Balance 1% 4 New Balance 2% 4 New Balance 2%5 New Balance 1% 5 ASICS 1% 5 ASICS 1% 5 ASICS 1%
64 | Taking Stock With Teens
Erinn Murphy Managing Director Sr. Research Analyst
Global Fashion & Lifestyle Brands
Nicole Miller Regan Managing Director Sr. Research Analyst
Restaurants
Sam Kemp Vice President Sr. Research Analyst
Internet
Stan Meyers Vice President Research Analyst
Media & Entertainment
Meet Our Senior Analyst Team
Mike Olson Managing Director Sr. Research Analyst
Online Content
Analyst Certification – Sam Kemp, Stan Meyers, Nicole Miller Regan, Erinn Murphy, Mike Olson, Senior Research Analysts: The views expressed in this report accurately reflect my personal views about the subject company and the subject security. In addition, no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report.
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Important Research Disclosures