Technologies & policies for a sustainable energy future keynote by dr. marilyn brown

transcript

Marilyn Brown

Professor of Energy Policy

Georgia Institute of Technology

Technologies and Policies for a Sustainable Energy Future

Memphis and Shelby County

Sustainability Summit

June 26, 2013

From the global…

…to the local

Emerging Economies will Increasingly Steer

Global Energy Markets

Global energy demand will rise by one-third over the next 25 years.

Rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East are driving

the increase.

Source: International Energy Agency. 2012. World Energy Outlook.

Share of Global Energy Demand

19% U.S.

Many Countries Will Increase their Oil and

Gas Import Dependency, but not the US

The US may become a major oil and gas exporter.

What will be the fate of alternative energy?

The Door is Closing on 450 ppm CO2 (or a 2°C Rise in Global Temperatures)

Four-fifths of the total energy-related CO2 emissions of the 450

Scenario are already “locked-in” by existing capital stock

World Energy-Related CO2 Emissions by Scenario

In the Southeast, Annual Average Temperature

Has Risen about 2°F since 1970

Accelerated warming is forecast for the Southeast.

Source: http://www.globalchange.gov/images/cir/pdf/southeast.pdf

Energy Footprints and GDP

Source: Energy Information Administration

Russia

Australia

US Energy Efficiency (The Blue Wedge):

The Largest Energy Resource Since 1973-74

The Energy Efficiency of the US Economy Has Improved

y Energy Service

Demand

Actual Energy Supply

1970 Energy Demand

Energy Service Demand Adjusted for Imports

Source: Skip Laitner & Steve Nadel, ACEEE, 2012.

Opportunities for US Energy Efficiency

Improvements Abound

Cost of Conserved Energy= the additional cost that must

be invested to implement energy-savings.

Source: National Academy of Sciences. 2009. 8

Policies are Needed to Deliver Efficiency

US Supply Curve for Electricity Efficiency Resources

Source: Wang & Brown, 2013 9

The Impact of Affluence and Cheap Energy:

A Rebound Effect?

“Now that we have a heat pump, we can

afford a plasma TV and lots of lighting.”

You Can’t Manage what you Can’t Measure

Many meters allow frequent data

collection and bi-directional

communication:

Enables dynamic pricing

Can interface with in-home or in-office

displays of online consumption information

ZigBee Rate saver

Google Power Meter

Energy Orbs signal

expensive & inexpensive

times to use energy

Automatic Home Temperature Adaptation

• Contains sensors for temperature,

humidity, activity, light

• Controlled through rotating ring on outside

and pushing on the front (á la iPod)

• Automatically learns user behavior

• Doesn’t heat/cool when no one is home

• WiFi-enabled; control from computer, cell

• Detailed usage summaries available

online

• $250 before installation; available directly

from Nest and Amazon, Apple Store, Best

Buy, Lowe’s, Home Depot,…

Nest thermostat

EIA forecasts that non-hydro renewable generation will triple by 2040,

with wind, biomass, and solar dominating.

Source: EIA, 2013

Non-hydro renewable generation

(billion kWh/year)

The US Green Economy is Progressing, But What

about the Bonanza of Cheap Natural Gas?

≈12%

States with Renewable Electricity Standards

Source: Brown and Sovacool. 2011. Fig. 7.4

Distributed generation (wind, solar, CHP…): Promising alternatives to central generation

Regulatory barriers

Input-based emissions standards

Grid access difficulties,…

Financial barriers

Access to credit and project competition within firms

Purchase power agreements,…

Information and workforce barriers

Workforce engineering know-how,…

Power Plant

Boiler

ELECTRICITY

Traditional System

CHP System

45- 49%

75- 80%

Efficiency Efficiency

Policy options are available to tackle these barriers.

Each GW of installed CHP capacity creates and maintains ≈2,000-3,000

full-time equivalent jobs throughout the lifetime of the system.

The Job Generation Benefits of Expanding Industrial Cogeneration

Job Coefficients by Sector (Jobs per Million of Expenditures, in $2009)

6.6 5.7

CHP Constructionand Installation

CHP Operation &Maintenance-Non

Natural Gas Electricity Coal & Petroleum Re-spending ofUtility Bill Savings

Induced

Impact

Construction &

Installation

Operation &

Maintenance

Energy

Production

(Natural Gas)

Myths can be Powerful Tools for Sustaining the Status Quo

“It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.”

-- Mark Twain

Illuminate energy myths and misperceptions

understand the belief systems that underpin them

explain the region’s private investments and public policies and foster productive public debate.

Results 16

Most of this analysis is discussed in a 2012 article:

Myth 1: Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Themselves Cannot Meet the South’s Growing Electricity Demand.

“With no readily available economic alternatives on the horizon, fossil fuels will continue to supply most of the world’s energy needs for the foreseeable future.”

-- Lee Raymond, Former CEO of

ExxonMobil, 1997

“….people are going to find ways to use energy more efficiently …. But don’t count on them using less energy….”

-- John Tireney New York Times, 2o11

Fact: EE can offset the increase in future electricity demand in the South.

Energy Consumption in

Residential/Commercial/Industrial Sectors in the

Myth 2: The South does not have sufficient renewable energy resources to meet a Federal Renewable Electricity Standard.

“Georgia simply doesn’t have the wind, solar or biomass resources required to meet proposed new federal regulations for renewable energy generation.”

-- The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, 2009

“We can't meet the targets in the Southeast.”

-- Senator Lindsay Graham of South Carolina (The New York Times, 2010)

Reference RES RE+RES EERE+RES

Non-Renewable Renewables

28% 27%

Fact: With coordinated EE and RE policies, the South could comply with an RES goal without a rate penalty.

Renewable Resources as a Percentage of Electricity Generation in the South in 2030

Grounds for Optimism

• Most of the 2050 physical plant is not yet built – with

growth comes opportunity.

• Natural gas and renewables could be mutually

supportive.

• Our economy could profit from an EE “makeover” so

that we can export gas to foreign markets willing to

pay a premium for it.

Grounds for Optimism

• Carbon emissions have just begun to be priced &

regulated in certain markets – these “market signals”

will spur innovation and “low-carbon” energy

decisions.

• Our current energy system could be made much more

efficient – creating jobs and reducing imports, while

also reducing GHG emissions and water consumption.

For More Information

Dr. Marilyn A. Brown, Professor

Georgia Institute of Technology

School of Public Policy

Atlanta, GA 30332-0345

Marilyn.Brown@pubpolicy.gatech.edu

Climate and Energy Policy Lab:

http://www.cepl.gatech.edu