Post on 05-Apr-2018
transcript
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
1/34
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
2/34
Outline
Part I Foreign Policy ContextVietnamChina Rela9onsThe East Sea
Part II Domes9c Policy ContextGenera9onal ChangeRule of Law the Na9onal
AssemblyCons9tu9onal Reform
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
3/34
Vietnam and Rising China
VietNam
Mature
Asymmery
Acknowledgement of China
preeminence
Acknowledgement of
Vietnams
autonomyAsymmetric Rela9ons
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
4/34
I. Foreign Policy Context
diversify (da dang) and mul9lateralize (daphuong) economic rela9ons become a
reliable partner to all countries (11)
Coopera9on and Struggle ( 2003) Strategic Partnerships with Major Powers
Russia (2001), Japan (2006), India (2007), China(2008), South Korea (200), Spain (200), UnitedKingdom (2010), Germany (2011)
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
5/34
VietnamChina Rela9ons
PartytoParty rela9ons codified (1) longterm, stable, futureorientated, goodneighborly and
allround coopera9ve rela9ons (March 1)
Comprehensive Coopera9on in the NewCentury (2000)Joint Steering Commiee (2006)
Strategic Partners (June 2008) Strategic Coopera9ve Partnership (200)
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
6/34
Vietnams 3 Strategies
Relegate conten2ous issues totechnical working groups
Promote mul2lateral efforts
Selfreliance develop defensecapacity
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
7/34
Longterm
Agreements
Joint Steering
Commiee
Highlevel
party visits
Highlevel
state visits
Economic
rela2ons
Defense 2es
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
8/34
2005 April 1st security and defense consulta9ons 2005 October Agreement on joint naval patrols in
the Gulf of Tonkin
2006 November 2nd security and defenseconsulta9ons
2007 August Border Defense Coopera9on Agrm. 200 September 3rd security and defense
consulta9ons
2010 November 1st Strategic Defense SecurityDialogue
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
9/34
11th Party Congress
Intensifying the na9onal defense andsecurity strength and power; maintaining
sociopoli9cal stability, independence,
sovereignty, unity, territorial integrity, socialorder and security; preven9ng and foiling all
schemes and plots of hos9le forces;
comprehensively and effec9vely carrying out
external ac9vi9es and proac9vely taking partin interna9onal integra9on.
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
10/34
11th Party Congress
Overall goals set forth for the country in thenext five years [201115] are: enhance
external ac9vi9es; firmly defend na9onal
independence, sovereignty and territorialintegrity; thus crea9ng a founda9on for the
na9on to become a modernoriented
industrialized country by 2020.
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
11/34
Na9onal Mari9me Strategy to 2020(VCP Central Commiee 4th Plenum Jan 2007)
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
12/34
Chinese Unilateral Fishing Ban
May-August - 2008-2009
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
13/34
Submissions
to UnitedNa9ons
Commission
on Limits ofthe
Con9nental
Shelf (May200)
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
14/34
The East Sea
Vietnamese swarmtac9cs
Unilateral fishingban 2010 Unpublicized
incidents YouTube
Cable cung incidents
200
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
15/34
Interna9onalizing the South
China Sea Dispute 2010
ShangriLa Dialogue (June) 17th ASEAN Regional Forum (July) 2nd U.S.ASEAN Leaders Mee9ng (September) 1st ASEAN Defense Ministers Mee9ng Plus
(October)
East Asia Summit (November 2011)
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
16/34
Vietnamese Responses to
Chinese Asser9veness
Official protests and public demonstra9ons Signaling through U.S. defense ac9vi9es
Special Envoys Livefiring exercise Force moderniza9on Visit by party Secretary General (Oct 2011)
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
17/34
USS George Washington Aug 2010
USS John D. Stennis
April 200
USS Florida SSGN, Pacific
Command December 200
USS George H.W. Bush Aug 2010
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
18/34
Naval Engagement Ac9vi9es
15
th
Anniversary of USVietnam Diploma9c Rela9onsUSS John S. McCain makes port call at Da Nang August 2010
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
19/34
Force Moderniza9on
BPS 500 Pauk Missile
Boat
4 Gepardclass Guided Missile Frigates
12 Svetlyakclass Fast Aack
Craq
6 Kiloclass subs
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
20/34
Coastal Defence
Extended Range
Ar9llery Muni9ons
BrahMos Cruise Missile ?
Bas9on An9Ship Missile
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
21/34
Vietnams Three Nos
and Cam Ranh Bay
1. No military alliances2. No foreign military bases on Vietnamese
territory
3. No use of third countries to combatanother country
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
22/34
II Domes9c Poli9cal Context
Patronage and power as the key byproduct of Vietnams na9onal party
congress process
Personality clashes, policy differencesand ideology
Leadership selec9on as a product ofsectoral (interest group) representa9on
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
23/34
Full members
retainedAlternate members
promoted
New full members
Genera9onal Change on the VCP
Central Commiee 2011
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
24/34
Sectoral Composi9on of the
Central Commiee 2011
%
38%
42%
11%
Senior Party
Central PartyState
Secondary/
Provincial
Armed Forces
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
25/34
13
13
2
2
3
5
CC Members Holding Central Party
Posts N = 38Politburo
Central Commiee
Commissions
Party media
Mass Organisa9on
Secretariat
Inspec9on Commiee
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
26/34
11
7
75
17
CC Members Holding Central
State Posts N = 47
Cabinet
Na9onal Assembly
Other central state
Mass Organisa9on
Deputy Minister
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
27/34
5720
5
1
11
CC Members Holding Provincial
Posts N = 94
Party Secretary
Deputy Party Secretary
Other
Regional
District Party Secretary
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
28/34
Secretary General
Prime Minister
Chair Na9onalAssemblyStanding
Commiee
PermanentSecretary Party
Secretariat
State President
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
29/34
Growing Power of the Office of the
Prime Minister
StatePresident,SecretaryGeneral,PrimeMinister
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
30/34
Proceedings broadcast on radio and television, vo9ng results made public,
full9me depu9es, Ministers grilled, legisla9on amended, two of the PrimeMinisters Cabinet nominees rejected, confidence vote, reviewed bauxite
contract with Chinese firm, highspeed rail rejected
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
31/34
Nguyn Sinh Hng Chair
Amendments to
Cons9tu9on
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
32/34
Conclusion
Era of party strong man long over Ins9tu9onal interests mi9gate against strong
party leader
State (Cabinet and Office of Prime Minister)has grown more powerful than party
Possible fric9on between prime minister andkey party elite and state president
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
33/34
Euilibrium
7/31/2019 Thayer Vietnam: The Context for Foreign Policy and Domestic Politics
34/34