Post on 12-Feb-2022
transcript
NEHRP Earthquake Scenario Planning Workshop September 17 and 18, 2008
The 1906 Earthquake Scenario and Golden Guardian ‘06 Exercise
Richard Eisner, FAIAFritz Institute
Two Objectives for the Two Objectives for the ScenarioScenario
2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San 2006 Centennial Commemoration of the San Francisco Earthquake Francisco Earthquake ---- Education & Education & AwarenessAwareness
Recurrence of 1906 Today Recurrence of 1906 Today ---- The Full MontyThe Full Monty19 Counties19 CountiesCurrent Built EnvironmentCurrent Built Environment
Golden Guardian 2006 Golden Guardian 2006 ---- Exercise ScenarioExercise ScenarioDHS/OHS Catastrophic Regional DisasterDHS/OHS Catastrophic Regional Disaster
Scenario Attributes
Multi-County Urban RegionUSGS Modeled Ground Motions From 1906Undated Building Inventory Where AvailableDetail Assessments Where Available (OSHPD)HAZUS Augmented by Narrative on Lifelines
PG&E, BARTD, Caltrans
Team Effort
The TeamThe Team
California State Warning Center (Data)California State Warning Center (Data)United States Geological Survey (Ground United States Geological Survey (Ground Motions and Time History, Aftershocks)Motions and Time History, Aftershocks)PBS&J Atlanta (HAZUS Estimates and PBS&J Atlanta (HAZUS Estimates and Graphics)Graphics)Charles Kircher & Associates (HAZUS Charles Kircher & Associates (HAZUS Estimates and Analysis)Estimates and Analysis)Hope Seligson (HAZUS Estimates and Hope Seligson (HAZUS Estimates and Analysis)Analysis)
Bay Area Regional Transit District (Narrative)Bay Area Regional Transit District (Narrative)California Department of Transportation California Department of Transportation (Narrative) (Narrative) Pacific Gas & Electric (Time History, Narrative)Pacific Gas & Electric (Time History, Narrative)OES, DHS, OHS, FEMA and HAZUS (Funding and OES, DHS, OHS, FEMA and HAZUS (Funding and Staff)Staff)West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center West Coast Alaska Tsunami Warning Center (Graphics and Time History)(Graphics and Time History)
Multiple Objectives, Multiple Multiple Objectives, Multiple Funding SourcesFunding Sources
California Office Of Emergency ServicesCalifornia Office Of Emergency ServicesFederal Emergency Management AgencyFederal Emergency Management AgencyEERIEERIDHS Urban Area Security InitiativeDHS Urban Area Security InitiativeOHS Homeland Security Exercise and OHS Homeland Security Exercise and Evaluation ProgramEvaluation Program
Multiple MastersMultiple Masters
Anniversary Commemoration Wanted Global Anniversary Commemoration Wanted Global Picture of Impact on RegionPicture of Impact on RegionState and Region Wanted Earthquake State and Region Wanted Earthquake Scenario for Exercise and Focus on Local to Scenario for Exercise and Focus on Local to State to Federal Communication and State to Federal Communication and Coordination of Response/LogisticsCoordination of Response/LogisticsDHS Required More Fatalities, IEDs*, DHS Required More Fatalities, IEDs*, Terrorists, Field Theater and Media AttentionTerrorists, Field Theater and Media Attention
*Improvised Explosive Devices*Improvised Explosive Devices
The Scenario Took on A Time The Scenario Took on A Time DimensionDimension
Recognize That Scenario Is Not a Static End Recognize That Scenario Is Not a Static End State PictureState PictureInformation Varies with Time and ScenarioInformation Varies with Time and ScenarioThere is Never Adequate Information for There is Never Adequate Information for Decision Making / Decision MakerDecision Making / Decision MakerNeed to Train as You Would Play Need to Train as You Would Play ---- In the In the Fog of WarFog of War
For GGEX06For GGEX06
Need to Disaggregate Data to Census Tracts Need to Disaggregate Data to Census Tracts and Provide Time Historyand Provide Time HistoryNeed to Develop Local Script of Damage and Need to Develop Local Script of Damage and SequenceSequenceNeed to Use Available Estimates to Make the Need to Use Available Estimates to Make the Best Decisions When Information InadequateBest Decisions When Information InadequateNeed to Think Strategically Need to Think Strategically
Exercise StructureExercise Structure
Regional Disaster Impacting 19 CountiesRegional Disaster Impacting 19 CountiesOne Year of Planning & PreparationOne Year of Planning & PreparationSudden Onset Event*Sudden Onset Event*Cold Start ResponseCold Start ResponseRamping Up of Response Capability in Real Ramping Up of Response Capability in Real TimeTimeReplicate Actual Information Flow From Locals Replicate Actual Information Flow From Locals Up to Region, State and Federal LevelsUp to Region, State and Federal Levels
*Not a Hurricane or Flood*Not a Hurricane or Flood
What We Know and DonWhat We Know and Don’’t t KnowKnow
Only the Local Level Has Tactical KnowledgeOnly the Local Level Has Tactical KnowledgeLocals Do Not Understand Overall EventLocals Do Not Understand Overall EventHierarchy Aggregates Local DataHierarchy Aggregates Local Data
Sets Response Resource Allocation PrioritiesSets Response Resource Allocation PrioritiesPaints Comprehensive ImagePaints Comprehensive ImageDisseminates Comprehensive to All PlayersDisseminates Comprehensive to All Players
Others Play the ScenarioOthers Play the Scenario
Concepts of OperationConcepts of Operation
Local Governments Are In chargeLocal Governments Are In chargeState and Federal Levels Provide and Broker State and Federal Levels Provide and Broker ResourcesResources
Projected NeedProjected Need
OES SOC Provides Interface with Federal and OES SOC Provides Interface with Federal and InterInter--State ResourcesState ResourcesUse Information You Have Including ShakeMap Use Information You Have Including ShakeMap and HAZUS Estimatesand HAZUS EstimatesAll Play in Real Time for 36 HoursAll Play in Real Time for 36 Hours
Scenario PlayScenario Play
MSEL* Based on HAZUS Scenario and Time MSEL* Based on HAZUS Scenario and Time HistoryHistory3,000+ Messages Plus Additional Interventions3,000+ Messages Plus Additional InterventionsCounty Level Estimates and Graphic Distribution County Level Estimates and Graphic Distribution Disaggregated and LocalizedDisaggregated and LocalizedEach County Played Their Role With Their Own Each County Played Their Role With Their Own Piece of EventPiece of EventRegion/State Used Input from Counties and Region/State Used Input from Counties and Estimates from HAZUSEstimates from HAZUS
*Master Scenario Event List*Master Scenario Event List
Best Made PlansBest Made Plans……
Real Tsunami Advisory Issued by WCATWCReal Tsunami Advisory Issued by WCATWCPlayed Scenario and Real Tsunami ResponsePlayed Scenario and Real Tsunami Response
05:12:0005:12:00
05:12:0005:12:00 Earthquake NucleatesEarthquake Nucleates05:12:1005:12:10 Electric Circuits Near Epicenter Begin to Electric Circuits Near Epicenter Begin to Trip Off Trip Off 05:12:1005:12:10 PG&E and ISO OpPG&E and ISO Op--Centers Initiate Power Centers Initiate Power Shedding to Balance GridShedding to Balance Grid05:12:1005:12:10 Progressive Blackout of Region Initiated Progressive Blackout of Region Initiated to Prevent Cascading Failureto Prevent Cascading Failure05:12:3005:12:30 Strong Ground Motions Felt Throughout Strong Ground Motions Felt Throughout Bay RegionBay Region
05:12:3505:12:35
05:12:3505:12:35 State Warning Center State Warning Center Receives Receives Calls Calls from Coastal Counties on CALWAS from Coastal Counties on CALWAS –– ““ Expletive! Expletive! We are having an EarthquakeWe are having an Earthquake””05:12:4505:12:45 Earthquake Felt In SacramentoEarthquake Felt In Sacramento05:12:4505:12:45 Electrical Power Off in Most Electrical Power Off in Most of the Bay of the Bay RegionRegion05:13:0005:13:00 Earthquake Reported on Fox and CNNEarthquake Reported on Fox and CNN
05:13:0005:13:00
Strong Ground Motions Taper OffStrong Ground Motions Taper OffCoastal County 911 Centers are SaturatedCoastal County 911 Centers are SaturatedPhone Systems SaturatedPhone Systems SaturatedBART Issues Stop Order for All Trains. Trains BART Issues Stop Order for All Trains. Trains Already Stopped from Loss of Power. Two Trains Already Stopped from Loss of Power. Two Trains Stop in TubeStop in Tube
05:15:0005:15:00
CISN Posts Location of Earthquake EpicenterCISN Posts Location of Earthquake EpicenterLocal Governments Responding to What They Local Governments Responding to What They Can SeeCan SeeState Warning Center Initiates Activation of State Warning Center Initiates Activation of State Operations CenterState Operations CenterCalifornia Geological Survey Activates Key StaffCalifornia Geological Survey Activates Key StaffCalTrans Initiates Remote Video Inspections of CalTrans Initiates Remote Video Inspections of Bridges (If Operational)Bridges (If Operational)
05:15:0005:15:00
CalTrans Maintenance and Traffic Operations CalTrans Maintenance and Traffic Operations Personnel Mobilized to EOCs and Maintenance Personnel Mobilized to EOCs and Maintenance FacilitiesFacilitiesMedia Provides Initial Public Information on Media Provides Initial Public Information on Emergency Alert SystemEmergency Alert System
05:17:0005:17:00
CISN Posts Location, MagnitudeCISN Posts Location, MagnitudeUC Berkeley Confirms Magnitude, Location to UC Berkeley Confirms Magnitude, Location to State Warning CenterState Warning CenterWCATWC Issues Tsunami Warning BulletinWCATWC Issues Tsunami Warning BulletinOES Schedules Conference Call with California OES Schedules Conference Call with California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC)(CEPEC)
05:20:0005:20:00
CISN Posts First ShakeMap From UC BerkeleyCISN Posts First ShakeMap From UC BerkeleyShakeMap Downloaded to Federal, State and ShakeMap Downloaded to Federal, State and County AgenciesCounty AgenciesShakeMap is the First ShakeMap is the First ““ImageImage”” of the Eventof the Event
How Big?How Big?How Bad?How Bad?Where?Where?
05:32:0005:32:00
USGS Issues Automated Aftershock Forecast USGS Issues Automated Aftershock Forecast (90% Probability of M5 and Larger Aftershocks (90% Probability of M5 and Larger Aftershocks in Next 7 days)in Next 7 days)
5% to 10% Probability of Larger Event5% to 10% Probability of Larger Event
USGS Aftershock AssessmentUSGS Aftershock Assessment
7 Day Interval Calculated 20 Minutes After the Quake
Magnitude Probability Number--------------- -----------------------------5+ 100 46 (33-59)6+ 100 6 (1-10)7+ 50 1 (0-2)
05:35:0005:35:00
OES GIS Staff are Recalled to Run HAZUS Loss OES GIS Staff are Recalled to Run HAZUS Loss EstimateEstimateBART Imports ShakeMap into Risk Assessment BART Imports ShakeMap into Risk Assessment Program (SERA) to Set Inspection Priorities Program (SERA) to Set Inspection Priorities BART on Manual Operations Where Power BART on Manual Operations Where Power AvailableAvailable
07:00:0007:00:00
Initial HAZUS Damage Estimates AvailableInitial HAZUS Damage Estimates Available
Damage to Damage to BridgesBridges
000000000 101010101010101010
milesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmiles
202020202020202020
Area of PotentialGround Failure
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
MontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMonterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa CruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruz
San FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan Francisco
Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra CostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCosta
MarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarin
SonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonoma NapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapa
AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
SolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolano
Probability ofBridge Damage
0.7 to 10.4 to 0.70.2 to 0.40.1 to 0.20.05 to 0.10.01 to 0.050 to 0.01
Fire Fire IgnitionsIgnitions
500 to 600 500 to 600 Fires in RegionFires in Region100 Fires in 100 Fires in San FranciscoSan Francisco
000000000 101010101010101010
milesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmiles
202020202020202020
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
MontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMonterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa CruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruz
San FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan Francisco
Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra CostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCosta
MarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarin
SonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonoma NapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapa
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
SolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolano
Predicted Numberof Ignitions
10 or more8 to 96 to 74 to 52 to 3
Less than 2
Utility Utility DisruptionDisruption
.5 Million .5 Million Household Household Without Power Without Power (2400, Day 1)(2400, Day 1)Over 1 Million Over 1 Million Households Households without water without water (2400, Day 1)(2400, Day 1)
miles
0 10 20
6,000
1,700
39,400
524,200
426,000
322,100
248,800
65,300
87,500
6,5006,700
136,000
145,000
143,000
34,000
21,900
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
M ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM ontereyM onterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda
San San San San San San San San San FranciscoFranciscoFranciscoFranciscoFranciscoFranciscoFranciscoFranciscoFrancisco
San San San San San San San San San M ateoM ateoM ateoM ateoM ateoM ateoM ateoM ateoM ateo
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa CruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruz
M arinM arinM arinM arinM arinM arinM arinM arinM arin
Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra CostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCosta
SonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonoma NapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolano
San San San San San San San San San JoaquinJoaquinJoaquinJoaquinJoaquinJoaquinJoaquinJoaquinJoaquin
Affected Households100,000
No WaterNo Power
Daytime Daytime CasualtiesCasualties
13,000 Injuries 13,000 Injuries Requiring Requiring HospitalizationHospitalization3,400 Deaths3,400 Deaths
000000000 101010101010101010
milesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmiles
202020202020202020
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
MontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMonterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa CruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruz
San FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan Francisco
Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra CostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCosta
MarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarin
SonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonoma NapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapa
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
SolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolano
Fatality Densityat 2 PM [per sq.mi.]
Over 5020 to 5010 to 20
5 to 102 to 51 to 2
Less than 1
Hospital Hospital PerformancePerformance
OSHPD Survey DataOSHPD Survey Data35% Region Hospitals are 35% Region Hospitals are
SPC 1SPC 1Only 7/105 Peninsula Only 7/105 Peninsula
Hospitals are SPC 5Hospitals are SPC 5
000000000 101010101010101010
milesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmiles
202020202020202020
Area of PotentialGround Failure
Area of PotentialShaking Damage
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
MontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMonterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa CruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruz
San FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan Francisco
Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra CostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCosta
MarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarin
SonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonoma NapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapa
AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
SolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolano
Number ofBeds
Over 1,000500 to 1,000200 to 500100 to 20050 to 100
Less than 50
Displaced Displaced HouseholdsHouseholds
200,000 to 200,000 to 300,000 300,000 Displaced Displaced HouseholdsHouseholds
000000000 101010101010101010
milesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmiles
202020202020202020
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
MontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMonterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa CruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruz
San FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan Francisco
Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra CostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCosta
MarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarin
SonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonoma NapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapa
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
SolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolano
Displaced Households[# per sq.mi.]
Over 5,0001,000 to 5,000
500 to 1,000100 to 500
50 to 10010 to 50
Less than 10
Shelter Shelter DemandDemand
60,000 to 60,000 to 120,000 120,000 Persons Persons Requiring Requiring ShortShort--term term ShelterShelter
000000000 101010101010101010
milesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmiles
202020202020202020
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
MontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMonterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa CruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruz
San FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan Francisco
Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra CostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCosta
MarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarin
SonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonoma NapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapa
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
SolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolano
Shelter Needs[# per sq.mi.]
5,000 to 10,0001,000 to 5,000
500 to 1,000100 to 500
50 to 10010 to 50
0 to 10
Debris Debris GeneratedGenerated
25 to 40 25 to 40 Million Tons Million Tons of Debris of Debris GeneratedGenerated
000000000 101010101010101010
milesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmilesmiles
202020202020202020
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
MontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMonterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa CruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruz
San FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan Francisco
Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra CostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCosta
MarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarin
SonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonoma NapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapa
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
SolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolano
Debris Generated[x1,000 tons / sq.mi.]
Over 500100 to 500
50 to 10010 to 50
5 to 101 to 5
Less than 1
Economic Economic ImpactImpact
Over $120 Over $120 Billion of Billion of Building LossesBuilding LossesDirect and Direct and Indirect Losses Indirect Losses will Exceed will Exceed $150 Billion$150 Billion
000000000 101010101010101010
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202020202020202020
San FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan FranciscoSan Francisco
San MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan MateoSan Mateo
MontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMontereyMonterey
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa CruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruzCruz
Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra Contra CostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCostaCosta
MarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarinMarin
SonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonomaSonoma NapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapaNapa
San San San San San San San San San BenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenitoBenito
AlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlamedaAlameda
Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa Santa ClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClaraClara
SolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolanoSolano
Loss Density[$M per sq.mi.]
Over 25050 to 25010 to 50
5 to 101 to 50.2 to 1
Less than 0.2
Lessons LearnedLessons Learned
Multipurpose Scenario Is ComplexMultipurpose Scenario Is ComplexMedia Scenario is GlobalMedia Scenario is GlobalExercise Scenario is DetailedExercise Scenario is Detailed
Regional Scenario Required a Significant Regional Scenario Required a Significant Commitment From Many PlayersCommitment From Many Players
Emergency ManagersEmergency ManagersUtilities and LifelinesUtilities and LifelinesSecurity is an Excuse to Not PlaySecurity is an Excuse to Not PlayHAZUS Support Critical HAZUS Support Critical
For a Regional Exercise
Need to Localize Regional Scenario (3,000+ Need to Localize Regional Scenario (3,000+ Injects) Injects) Be Able to Make a Major Commitment of Time Be Able to Make a Major Commitment of Time and Resources (2 Years, Broad Participation and Resources (2 Years, Broad Participation From Bay Region Counties and $3 MillionFrom Bay Region Counties and $3 MillionNeed to Build Trust in Estimates to Need to Build Trust in Estimates to ““Play the Play the ScenarioScenario”” Until There is Ground TruthUntil There is Ground Truth
Scenario and HAZUS Scenario and HAZUS EstimatesEstimates
For, Rapid Onset Events, We Have No Choice For, Rapid Onset Events, We Have No Choice But But ““Play the ScenarioPlay the Scenario””Need to Build Inventory and Redundant Need to Build Inventory and Redundant OperabilityOperabilityWe need to Exercise the Way We Will Have to Play, Because We Will Play the Way We ExerciseTime History Critical to Scenario EffectivenessTime History Critical to Scenario Effectiveness