The 2013 Arlington Real Estate Market Review and...

transcript

The 2013 Arlington Real Estate Market Review and Forecast

02.26.2013

This Morning’s Presentation

• The Washington Area Economy

• The Office Market

• The Residential Market

• The Hotel Market

• The Retail Market

• Development Trends and Prospects

• The Silver Line

• Fiscal Status

• Challenges

The Washington Area Economy

“I’ve stopped looking for w ork, which, I believe, helps the economic numbers.”

Annual Job Change United States (000s)

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Annual Job Change Washington DC Metro Area (000s)

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Average = 36

Change in All Job Sectors Washington DC Metro Area (000s)

Annual 2012 2011 2010

Annual Month Over Year

Change in Professional & Business Services Jobs Washington DC Metro Area (000s)

Annual 2012 2011 2010

Change in Hospitality Jobs Washington DC Metro Area (000s)

Annual 2012 2011 2010

Change in Federal Jobs Washington DC Metro Area (000s)

Annual 2012 2011 2010

Job Change by Sector 2011-2012 Washington DC Metro Area (000s)

-5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0

Education/Health Services State/Local Government

Leisure/Hospitality Professional/Business Services

Financial Construction/Mining

Transportation/Utilities Other

Manufacturing Information

Wholesale Trade Federal Government

Retail Trade

Job Change by Sector 2012-2017 Washington DC Metro Area (000s)

-50.0 0.0 50.0 100.0 150.0

Professional/Business Services

Construction

Education/Health Services

Other Industries (3)*

Retail Trade

State/Local Government

Leisure/Hospitality

Information

Financial

Federal Government

* Wholesales Trande, Manufacturing, and Transportation/Utilities Source: George Mason University, Center for Regional Analysis

Unemployment

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Arlington Virginia US

Note: Arlington through November 2012 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Principal Employers

Government Jobs Private Jobs U.S. Department of Defense* 27,000 Deloitte 5,826

U.S. Department of State* 6,000 Accenture 4,200

U.S. Department of Homeland Security* 5,600 SAIC 2,380

U.S. Department of Justice* 5,200 Virginia Hospital Center 2,268

Arlington County School Board 3,937 Marriott International, Inc.* 1,885

County of Arlington 3,698 Booz Allen Hamilton* 1,400

FDIC* 2,900 Lockheed Martin Corp 1,194

National Science Foundation 2,237 Corporate Executive Board 1,157

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency* 2,100 CACI 1,095

U.S. Department of Interior* 1,200 SRA International 957

Total 59,872 Total 22,362

*Estimate

The Office Market

“Yes, I do make things, son. I make things called deals.”

Private Office Market Comparisons

Submarket Office Inventory

SF Vacancy

Rate Average Asking

Downtown Philadelphia 44,202,474 14.7% $26.10

Chicago Central Loop 41,099,407 13.1% $31.54

Washington CBD 38,710,591 11.5% $48.52

Boston CBD 37,473,147 12.7% $43.79

Arlington County 36,735,543 16.1% $41.13

Houston CBD 36,514,081 13.7% $33.09

Los Angeles Downtown 31,125,339 18.0% $34.32

Dallas CBD 29,799,042 28.1% $18.93

Denver Downtown 25,608,414 14.1% $25.45

Minneapolis CBD 23,348,562 17.4% $12.46

Seattle CBD 20,267,129 14.4% $31.891

Atlanta Downtown 18,377,678 24.6% $18.09

1Class A only Source: CB Richard Ellis; Colliers International; 4th Quarter 2012

Regional Office Availability

Submarket Building Area

Total Available

Sublet Available

Total Vacant

Direct Vacant

Average Asking

Washington East End 47,112,991 6,281,031 648,645 9.9% 9.2% $52.60

Washington CBD 44,530,121 6,097,619 674.580 10.7% 9.9% $50.97

Tysons Corner 28,316,730 6,073,599 234,624 16.9% 15.9% $29.98

RB Corridor 24,259,464 5,251,945 653,667 14.5% 13.4% $41.24

Reston 18,678,964 4,491.914 784,301 19.1% 16.5% $28.42

Crystal City/ Pentagon City 12,561,065 2,714,767 204,618 19.9% 19.0% $39.48

Herndon 12,315,319 2,034,476 372,255 14.9% 13.4% $26.73

Bethesda/ Chevy Chase 12,017,129 1,507,536 243,840 10.1% 9.0% $35.80

NoMa 9,684,641 1,279,647 32,375 11.4% 11.0% $45.27

Capitol Hill 6,230,795 915,330 96,608 9.3% 8.7% $52.35

Capitol Riverfront 5,474,610 928,905 48,062 14.9% 14.5% $43.15

Source: CoStar 1/25/13

Arlington Office Availability

Submarket Building Area Total Available

Sublet Available

Total Vacant

Direct Vacant

Average Asking

Ballston 7,605,009 1,669,674 275,081 14.0% 12.7% $40.24

Clarendon/Courthouse 5,766,547 911,782 129,245 11.5% 10.0% $41.26

Crystal City 11,600,017 2,826,176 198,433 22.6% 21.8% $39.43

Pentagon City 1,232,333 17,546 0 1.4% 1.4% N/A

Rosslyn 8,927,502 2,281,687 242,012 17.1% 16.4% $42.32

Virginia Square 1,960,406 392,121 364,442 13.4% 12.0% $40.11

Outside Metro Areas 2,346,838 274,798 11,773 5.1% 4.6% $24.57

Arlington County 39,442,430 8,402,143 857,843 16.5% 15.4% $40.15

Source: CoStar 1/25/13

Building Address

Vacated (SF) Status

1400 Crystal Drive (1411 Jefferson Davis Hwy) 278,332

Redevelopment for 308,000 SF underway; Completion expected 06/2013

1900 Crystal Drive (1851 S Bell Street) 393,587 Proposed 730,000 SF building approved

220 20th Street 197,804 Redeveloped into 265 apartment units

Presidential Towers 2511 Jefferson Davis Hwy 307,685 Currently marketing

400 Army Navy Drive 202,434 Purchased by LCOR affiliate, plans for multifamily redevelopment

3701 Fairfax Drive 172,837 Currently marketing

223 23rd Street S 185,500 Preliminary planning

4040 N Fairfax Drive 184,211 Renovations underway

Total 1,922,390

Buildings Impacted by Federal Actions

Expiration of BRAC Leases

2013 2014 2015 After 2015

2521 S Clark Street 201 S 12th Street 1401 Wilson Blvd 2451 Crystal Drive

*Entire building will be available in 4Q ‘13 Source: Arlington Economic Development

1750 Crystal Drive 2521 S Clark Street 1400-1450 S Eads 2221 S Clark Street

3100 Clarendon Blvd* 200 S 12th Street 1101 Wilson Blvd 2450 Crystal Drive

2530 Crystal Drive 1700 N Moore Street 1225 S Clark Street 1515 Wilson Blvd

Net Office Absorption 2012

Firm Northern Virginia Arlington Avison Young (2,404,751) (1,562,487)

Transwestern (2,594,000) (2,146,000)

Cushman & Wakefield (2,509,225) (1,809,358)

Cassidy/Turley (2,015,257) (1,743,832)

CB Richard Ellis (2,007,059) (1,950,351)

Jones Lang LaSalle (2,318,642) (1,806,777)

CoStar (1,409,946) (1,523,419)

Source: Real Estate Firms

Top Lease Transactions 2012

Tenant SF Address

GSA - ONR 274,000 875 N Randolph Street CNA 173,309 3001 Washington Boulevard Raytheon 114,000 1100 Wilson Boulevard Corporate Executive Board 108,000 1777 N Kent Street E*Trade Financial 100,000 671 N Glebe Road DRS Technologies 92,000 2345 Crystal Drive US Department of Labor 91,438 1100 Wilson Boulevard GSA 74,000 251 18th Street South Pacific Architects and Engineers (PAE) 71,000 1320 N Courthouse Road GSA 68,000 1225 S Clark Street Rosetta Stone 65,000 1919 N Lynn Street Arlington County School Board 62,000 2110 Washington Boulevard National Electrical Manufacturers Associations 58,000 1300 N 17th Street Interstate Hotels & Resorts 49,000 4501 N Fairfax Drive Turner Construction 37,000 3865 Wilson Boulevard Strategic Investment Management 36,000 1001 N 19th Street Environ International Corporation 33,000 4350 N Fairfax Drive CRDF Global 26,883 1776 Wilson Boulevard Decisive Analytics Corporation 25,000 1235 S Clark Street

The Residential Market

“Hold everything! The P.R. department just sent over this chart.”

Housing Sales & Prices

Year Units Sold Avg. Price Units Sold Avg. Price Units Sold Avg. Price

2012 1,068 $776,044 288 $599,161 1,341 $408,142

2011 884 $750,019 236 $596,117 1,149 $385,080

2010 950 $742,406 276 $547,794 1,233 $371,937

2009 936 $701,059 254 $527,472 1,241 $363,989

2008 1,153 $736,673 284 $541,621 1,233 $392,948

2007 1,029 $804,352 268 $650,368 1,793 $404,591

2006 1,084 $767,858 328 $618,931 1,670 $396,931

2005 1,297 $773,007 386 $617,263 1,807 $384,222

2004 1,400 $641,826 438 $517,132 2,086 $325,521

2003 1,381 $527,910 377 $456,815 1,917 $261,657

Source: Real Estate Business Intelligence

Detached Attached Condo

Arlington Total Home Sales as a Percent of NOVA

Source: Northern Virginia Association of Realtors

11.4% 11.5%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Arlington Average Home Price as a Percent of NOVA

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Source: Northern Virginia Association of Realtors

The Hotel Market

“We do all those old tricks electronically now.”

Washington National Airport Annual Change in Passengers

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Source: Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority

Total Passengers 2012 = 19,579,384

Hotel Room Inventory

10,000

12,000

1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011

Source: Arlington Economic Development

Hotel Market Characteristics

Area 2012 Annual Change 2012

Annual Change 2012

Annual Change

Washington DC (CBD) 74.9% -0.4% $203.37 -1.3% $152.31 -1.7%

Arlington, VA 72.9% 0.8% $156.99 -2.1% $114.43 -1.3%

Dulles Airport Area 70.5% -1.0% $107.27 -0.6% $75.67 -1.5%

Fairfax/Tysons Corner 64.7% -0.4% $131.33 2.1% $85.02 1.7%

Alexandria 66.9% 0.6% $129.66 -0.4% $86.69 0.2%

Bethesda/College Park 64.9% 2.4% $123.96 -2.1% $80.41 0.2%

Washington, DC-MD-VA 67.5% 0.3% $143.84 -0.7% $97.09 -0.5%

South Atlantic 60.9% 2.5% $103.28 3.1% $62.86 5.7%

United States 61.4% 2.5% $106.10 4.2% $65.17 6.8%

Occupancy Average

Daily Rate RevPAR

Source: Smith Travel Research

The Retail Market

Consumer Revenues 12-month rolling average (000$)

$2,000

$2,200

$2,400

$2,600

$2,800

$3,000

$3,200

$3,400

Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep

Retail Sales Tax Meals Tax

2009 2010 2011 2012

Development Trends & Prospects

“There, there it is again—the invisible hand of the marketplace giving us the f inger.”

Development Pipeline Summary

Stage No. of

Projects Office SF Retail SF Other SF Housing

Units Hotel

Under Construction 18 1,621,413 192,259 21,031 3,261 183

Near-term Construction Starts 8 1,995,703 78,535 12,985 721 148

Awaiting Market or Phasing 15 2,186,598 173,905 389,072 1,986 0

Zoning Review 8 3,677,529 131,637 0 1,922 968

Total Pipeline 49 9,442,243 576,700 423,088 7,890 1,299

Major Nonresidential Projects Completed

Project Submarket 2009 2010 2011 2012 800 N. Glebe Rd. Ballston 0 0 0 309,281

900 N. Glebe Rd. Ballston 0 0 142,776 0

DARPA Building Ballston 0 0 0 355,530 Clarendon Center - North Clarendon 0 120,907 0 0 Clarendon Center - South Clarendon 0 161,392 0 0

Residence Inn Courthouse Courthouse 151,110 0 0 0 Marriott Renaissance & Residence Inn Crystal City 0 0 440,000 0 National Gateway 1 & 2 Crystal City 374,379 0 0 0 Marymount Univ. 26th Street Outside Metro 0 129,031 0 0 1776 Wilson Blvd. Rosslyn 0 0 0 136,749 Hilton Garden Inn Shirlington 111,222 0 0 0 Randolph Square Shirlington 195,000 0 0 0 GMU Founder's Hall Virginia Square 0 0 244,000 0 Total 831,711 411,330 826,776 801,560

Major Nonresidential Projects Under Construction

Project Submarket Office SF Retail SF Hotel

Rooms Other SF Delivery

Founder's Square - Marriott Ballston 0 1,880 183 0 2Q/13

3001 Clarendon Blvd. Clarendon 284,012 22,479 0 0 1Q/14

1400 Crystal Drive Crystal City 302,765 0 0 0 1Q/13

Boeing Regional Headquarters Crystal City 453,422 0 0 0 3Q/14

1812 N Moore St Rosslyn 569,739 11,020 0 21,031 4Q/13

Total 1,609,938 35,379 183 21,031

Major Nonresidential Projects Approved

Project Submarket Office SF Retail SF Hotel

Rooms Other SF

Founder's Square North Office Ballston 418,810 7,670 0 0

2311 Wilson Blvd. Courthouse 150,002 7,812 0 14,900

1900 Crystal Drive Crystal City 719,704 11,290 0 0

National Gateway 3-4-5-6 Crystal City 1,064,298 41,325 0 0

Pentagon Centre Pentagon City 489,911 33,495 0 0

Central Place Rosslyn 570,459 44,554 0 9,555

Rosslyn Gateway (2 bldgs.) Rosslyn 490,056 18,689 148 0

3901 Fairfax Dr. Virginia Square 178,131 3,200 0 12,985

Total 4,081,371 168,035 148 37,440

Major Residential Projects Completed

*Condominium Source: Arlington Economic Development

Submarket 2009 2010 2011 2012 Projects Ballston 0 0 90 81 The Jordan, Buckingham Village Towns, Thomas St. Apts.

Clarendon 0 244 0 268 Clarendon Center S., Views at Clarendon, Garfield Park

Columbia Pike 423 0 299 0 55 Hundred, Siena Park, Penrose Square

Courthouse 89 0 0 0 Rhodes Hill Square*

Crystal City 266 184 0 0 220 20th Street, North Tract Lofts

East Falls Church 0 214 0 0 Crescent Apartments

Nauck 94 171 0 0 The Shelton, Shirlington Crest*

Pentagon City 0 300 0 0 The Millennium

Rosslyn 347 0 0 184 Hilltop House 100*, Turnberry Tower*, Gaslight Square*, Grayson Flats

Virginia Square 108 0 0 0 The Amelia

Outside Metro 234 217 58 460 The Madison, Alexan 24, Brompton's Cherrydale, The Macedonian, Buckingham Bldg. B, Mosaic at Clarendon

Total 1,561 1,330 447 993

Major Residential Projects Under Construction

Project Submarket Units Retail SF Delivery Founder's Square - N. Residential Ballston 257 9,035 1Q/14

Beacon at Clarendon West Clarendon 187 18,450 2Q/14

19Nineteen Clarendon Blvd. Courthouse 198 24,657 4Q/13

2001 Clarendon Blvd. Courthouse 154 32,840 4Q/13

The Tellus Courthouse 254 4,354 2Q/14

Arlington Mill Columbia Pike 122 2,250 4Q/13

Pike 3400 Columbia Pike 301 15,443 2Q/14

Dominion Heights Lee Highway 66 8,420 1Q/13

Archstone Parkland Gardens Outside Metro 325 0 2Q/14

Acadia at Metropolitan Park Pentagon City 411 16,345 2Q/14

Sedona & Slate Rosslyn 479 12,635 1Q/13

Virginia Square Towers Virginia Square 540 12,815 2Q/14

Total 3,294 157,244

Major Residential Projects Approved

Project Submarket Units Retail SF

650 N. Glebe Ballston 163 2,230

The Shell Columbia Pike 83 6,700

Wakefield Manor Courthouse 104 0

Airport Plaza IV Crystal City 198 0

Crystal House Lofts Crystal City 252 0

Brittany East Crystal City 360 16,503

Brittany West Crystal City 331 15,868

2145 Lee Highway Lee Highway 202 13,257

Central Place Rosslyn 350 0

Rosslyn Gateway (2 bldgs.) Rosslyn 273 7,687

Total 2,316 62,245

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Stage 5

Stage 6 Stage 1

Early Dow

Full Downturn BottomEarly Recovery

Early StableLate Stable Early Downturn

Current CycleStage

Future Cycle Stage[+12 Months]

Senior Senior

Indu Indus.

Hote Hotel

For-S For-Sale

Land Land

Retail Retail

Resort Resort

Office Office

Development Cycles

The Silver Line

“My contractor told me Rome w ould only take a day.”

Office Construction 1980-2012 Arlington and Tysons Corner

Period Sq Ft %

Metro Sq Ft %

1980-1990

8,901,705 5.3%

6,410,358 3.8%

14,266,734 8.5%

168,258,530 100.0%

1991-2000

3,972,728 6.7% - 0.0%

3,944,016 6.6%

59,712,715 100.0%

2001-2006

3,504,482 5.7%

621,824 1.0%

3,780,588 6.2%

61,278,972 100.0%

2007-2012

2,250,149 5.8%

409,744 1.0%

966,739 2.5%

39,032,654 100.0%

Subtotal 1980-2012

18,629,064 5.7%

7,441,926 2.3%

22,958,077 7.0%

328,282,871 100.0%

2012 Base

24,259,464 5.1%

13,071,653 2.8%

28,316,730 6.0%

475,237,990 100.0%

Rosslyn-Ballston Corridor

Jefferson Davis Corridor Tysons Corner Washington Metro

Source: CoStar

Submarket 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Arlington 171,301 144,000 765,943 858,274 203,365

Tysons Corner 0 0 0 0 524,432

Northern Virginia 837,701 359,000 1,403,936 1,609,171 727,797

Arlington Share of NOVA 20.4% 40.1% 54.6% 53.3% 27.9%

Source: Cassidy Turley

Office Construction 2010-2014 Arlington and Tysons Corner

Arlington and Tysons Share of Northern Virginia Occupied Office Space

Current 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003

Arlington Tysons

Source: CoStar

Arlington and Tysons Share of Washington Metro Occupied Office Space

Current 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003

Arlington Tysons

Source: CoStar

Job Projections 2005-2030 Arlington and Tysons Corner

Jefferson Davis Corridor

Tysons Corner

Washington Metro

2005 Jobs

80,963

41,435

92,603

3,050,600

2030 Jobs

115,961

68,365

143,036

4,236,900

# Change

34,998

26,930

50,433

1,186,300

Regional Share 3.0% 2.3% 4.3% 100.0%

Source: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

Summary of Tax Rates (FY 2013) Arlington and Tysons Corner

Rosslyn Crystal City Ballston Tysons

Real Property Tax $0.958 $0.958 $0.958 $1.075

Business Improvement District Taxes 0.078 0.045 0.043 0.000

Commercial Transportation Tax 0.125 0.125 0.125 0.110

Stormwater Management Fees/Taxes 0.013 0.013 0.013 0.020

Dulles Rail Phase I - - - 0.220

Pest Infestation - - - 0.001

Tysons Corner Service District1 - - - 0.070

$1.174 $1.141 $1.139 $1.496

Per $100 Assessed Value (AV) 1Estimated

Household Projections 2005-2030 Arlington and Tysons Corner

Jefferson Davis Corridor

Tysons Corner

Washington Metro

2005 Households

1,871,300

2030 Households

10,114

14,888

17,589

2,531,300

# Change

660,000

Regional Share 0.6% 0.9% 1.5% 100.0%

Source: Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

Development Intensities Arlington and Tysons Corner

Rosslyn Ballston/

Virginia Square Crystal City/

Pentagon City Tysons Corner

Jobs Change (2005-2030)

14,717

13,608

26,930

50,433

Household Change (2005-2030)

Intensity 2005 111.4 78.8 78.1 41.7

Intensity 2030 174.1 112.8 128.9 66.6

Intensity Change 2005-2030 62.7 34.0 50.8 24.9

Source: Arlington Economic Development; Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments

Projects Under Construction

Arlington Capitol Riverfront NoMa Tysons

Hotel Retail Residential Office

Sources: Washington DC Economic Partnership data as of 08/12; Fairfax County Department of Planning & Zoning data as of 10/12.

Development Pipeline

Arlington* Capitol Riverfront NoMa Tysons*

Hotel Retail Residential Office

15.6 15.0

*Arlington has an additional 6.6M and Tysons 36.7M GSF currently in zoning review

Sources: Washington DC Economic Partnership data as of 08/12; Fairfax County Department of Planning & Zoning data as of 10/12.

Fiscal Status

Real Estate Tax Base

52% 53%

59% 60%

55% 54%

51% 51%

48% 47%

41% 40%

45% 46%

49% 49%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Residential Commercial/Apartment

Source: Arlington County Department of Management and Finance

Real Estate Tax Base Northern Virginia

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Alexandria City

Arlington County

Fairfax City

Fairfax County

Falls Church City

Loudoun County

Prince William County

Commercial/Apartments Residential

Taxes from Business

Tax Revenue

($Mil) % of

Total Taxes

Real Estate $286.0 32.8%

Gross Receipts 61.5 7.0

Personal Property 34.3 3.9

Sales Tax 38.5 4.4

Meals Tax 32.8 3.8

Transient Occupancy 21.8 2.5

Commercial Utility 12.9 1.5

Other 17.2 2.0

Subtotal $505.2 57.9%

Source: Arlington County Department of Management and Finance

Major Sales Transactions

Address Year Built Size (SF) Sales Price Price/SF Sale Date

1005 N Glebe Road 1988

147,880 $52,250,000 $353 2Q12

1010 N Glebe Road 1986 142,833 $48,992,000 $343 3Q12

400 Army Navy Drive 1964

253,723 $39,000,000 $154 4Q12

2511 Jefferson Davis Highway 1972

383,524 $48,324,000 $126 3Q12

Address Year Built Units Sales Price Price/Unit Sale Date

320 23rd Street South 1971 451 $175,000,000 $388,000 1Q12

Office

Residential

Challenges

Challenges in 2013

• Residual BRAC Space 25 Buildings Still Occupied (65 Leases)

• Unpredictable Federal Market - OMB; GSA; Politics

• Soft Private Market - Space Utilization; Less Contract Volume; Consolidation

• Space Utilization - Changed Workplace Practices

• Labor Shortages in High End Labor - Migration & Immigration; Federal Retirements

• Increased Potential Office Supply - Crystal City; Tysons; NOMA; S. Capitol

• Competitiveness - Taxes; Regulations; Incentives

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The 2013 Arlington Real Estate Market Review and...

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