The Cancun Paradox

February 22nd, 2011Leuven Centre for Global Governance Studies - KUL

René AudetCentre d’étude du

développement durable

and the Future of Climate Institutions

2005

(Montré

al)

2009

(Copenhague)

2008

(Poznań)2007

(Bali)2006

(Nairobi)

Second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol

Long term coop action

CPH Accord

Neg

otiati

ng

man

date

s(t

wo-

trac

ks)

Exit negotiating mandate (Political declaration)

The Copenhagen Accord

2005

(Montré

al)

2009

(Copenhague)

2008

(Poznań)2007

(Bali)2006

(Nairobi)

Second commitment period of Kyoto Protocol

Long term coop actionNeg

otiati

ng

man

date

s(t

wo-

trac

ks)

Operationalized in the negotiating mandate

The Cancun Agreements

2010

(Cancun)

CPH

Agr

eem

ent

The Semantics of « Balance »

Does the semantics of balance can help to predict a

deal?

The Semantics of « Balance »

A balanced outcome should demonstrate

sufficient level of advancement in the KP

track

The Semantics of « Balance »

A balanced outcome should demonstrate

sufficient level of advancement in the KP

track

We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for

mitigation actions

The Semantics of « Balance »

A balanced outcome should demonstrate

sufficient level of advancement in the KP

track

We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for

mitigation actions

Balance between specific issues

(ex: adaptation/mitigation

in finance)

The Semantics of « Balance »

A balanced outcome should demonstrate

sufficient level of advancement in the KP

track

We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for

mitigation actions

Balance between the needs of future

and present generation

Balance between specific issues

(ex: adaptation/mitigation

in finance)

The Semantics of « Balance »

A balanced outcome should demonstrate

sufficient level of advancement in the KP

track

We need balance between developed and developing countries pledges for

mitigation actions

Balance between the needs of future

and present generation

Balance between human needs and « Mother Earth’

capacities

Balance between specific issues

(ex: adaptation/mitigation

in finance)

Two-Tracks North&South Comitments

FuturGen/MotherEarth

Issues0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

The Semantics of « Balance » in the COP15&16 Plenary Sessions

G77Annex 1

Old and New Multilateralism

Cancun and the redefinition of multilateralism…

Old and New Multilateralism

Old – Club Model

Closed negotiations among great powers

Ex: the Triad (US, UE, Japan), the Quads (Triads + Canada), etc.

The CPH Accord as a Club model Accord?

Old and New Multilateralism

Old – Club Model

Closed negotiations among great powers

Ex: the Triad (US, UE, Japan), the Quads (Triads + Canada), etc.

The CPH Accord as a Club model Accord?

New – Dialogue Model

Coalitions as legitimate political representatives

Ex: the G20, G33, Coton4, Africa Group, LDC Group,

etc. in the WTO and UNFCCC

The role of the Cartagena Dialogue in Cancun.

ConclusionThe Copenhagen Accord will structure future climate negotiations and institutions more than is admitted.

The Cancun Agreements go as far as possible in the contexte of competing

semantics of balance

What about the balance between political will and science-based decisions?

New multilateralism and Cartagena Dialogue important for the next big trade-off…

Bedankt!