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The Civic Orientations of Arab Publics:Selected Findings from the Arab Barometer
• About Country: Governance (democracy, Islam)• About Individual: Engagement (interest, trust)
Mark TesslerUniversity of Michigan
Country Wave One Wave Two Wave ThreeAlgeria N=1300 5-6/2006 N=1216 4-5/2011
N=1220 3-4/2013
Bahrain N=500 1-2/2009 Egypt N=1219 6-7/2011 N=1196 3-4/2013Iraq N=1234 2-3/2011
N=1215 6/2013
Jordan N=1143 6/2006 N=1188 12/2010 N=1795 12/2012Kuwait N=1000 2-3/2014Lebanon N=1195 10/2007 N=1387 11-12/2010 N=1200 6/2013Libya N=1247 4-5/2014Morocco N=1277 11-12/2006
N=1196 5-6/2013
Palestine N=1270 5/2006 N=1200 12/2010 N=1200 12/2012Saudi Arabia N=1404 1-3/2011 Sudan N=1538 12/2010 N=1200 4-5/2013Tunisia N=1196 9-10/2011 N=1196 2/2013
Yemen N=717 10/2007 N=1200 2/2011 N=1200 11-12/201314 countries 7 surveys, N=7,402 10 surveys, N=12,782 12 surveys, N=14,868
Arab Barometer Data• 3 Waves since 2006• 14 Countries (probability samples) • 29 surveys (face-to-face interviews)• 35,052 respondents
Website: Information, Reports, DataPartners: Designing Interview Schedule
Strongly Agree Agree Disagree Strongly Disagree0
10
20
30
40
50
60
30
53
13
4
31
49
14
6
Wave Two
Wave Three
A democratic system may have problems, yet it is better than other political systems (9 countries)
About 80 Percent in Both Waves Think Democracy Is the Best Political SystemContinuing Support during a Period of Turbulence
Egypt Iraq Tunisia Yemen65
70
75
80
85
90
95
79
86
90
8384
76
83
73
Wave Two
Wave Three
But Some Change in Countries that Have Experienced Greatest Level of Turbulence
Agree Strongly or Agree that Democracy Is the Best Political System
6-7/2011 3-4/
2013
2-3/2011 6/
2013
9-10/2011 2/
2013
2/2011
11-12/2013
There is a difference in opinion among people regarding the most important features of democracy. If you had to choose one, which of the following features would you say is the most important?
Third Wave Second Wave Feature of Democracy
26 27 The opportunity to change the government through elections.
13 12 Freedom to criticize the government.
18 14 Narrowing the gap between rich and poor.
17 19 Providing basic items (such as food, housing, and clothing) to every individual.
11 12 Equality of political rights between citizens.
15 16 Eliminating financial and administrative corruption.
50 51 Political Process
50 49 Economic Performance
An Imperfect Understanding of Democracy(as elsewhere)
To what extent do you strongly agree, agree, disagree or strongly disagree with each of the following statements
1. Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should not interfere in voters’ decisions in elections.
2. [Your country] would be better off if religious people hold public positions in the state.
3. Religious leaders (imams, preachers, priests) should have influence over government decisions.
4. Religious practices are private and should be separated from social and political life.
Islam and Its Place in Politics
(Algeria, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, Sudan, Tunisia, Yemen)
Religious People Hold Public Office
Religious Influence Government Decisions
Not Separate Religion from Political Life
20
30
40
50
4540
33
4436 38
Wave TwoWave Three
Percent Strongly Agree and Agree
Wave Two Wave Three
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
22 16
4 10
-56
-36
-19-38
Strongly Disagree
Disagree
Strongly Agree
Agree
Tunisia: More than a Year under an Islamist Government
Religious leaders should have influence in government decisions
Wave Two Wave Three
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
2018 14
3 9
-42-32
-36-44
Strogly Agree
Agree
Strongly Disagree
Disagree
Religious practices NOT should be separated from social and political life
9-10/2011
9-10/2011
2/2013
2/2013
Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government
Democracy, whatever its limitations, is better than any
other political systems
Strongly AgreeAgree
(favor Islamic influence)
Disagree/Strongly Disagree
(not favor Islamic influence)
Strongly Agree/Agree
Percentage of Column
Percentage of Total
Democraticwith Islam
Wave 2 Wave 382% 76%33% 27%
Democraticwithout Islam
Wave 2 Wave 384% 83% 51% 53%
Disagree/Strongly Disagree
Percentage of Column
Percentage of Total
“Authoritarian” with Islam
18% 24% 7% 9%
“Authoritarian”without Islam
16% 17%
9% 11%
Democracy With and Without Islam
Wave TwoWave Three
Democratic with Islam
Democratic without Islam
Authoritarian with Islam
Authoritarian without Islam
Algeria 20 20 65 60 7 14 8 6
Egypt 27 15 52 70 10 3 11 12
Iraq 44 30 43 46 4 10 9 14
Jordan 36 38 45 43 9 9 10 10Lebanon 12 7 70 78 2 2 16 13
Palestine 35 31 50 50 6 9 9 10
Sudan 46 37 36 42 11 11 7 10
Tunisia 22 23 67 60 3 4 8 13Yemen 52 36 31 37 10 14 7 13
Political System Preference by Country and Time Period
Decrease
Increase
Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government
% Supporting Gender EqualityWave Two Wave Three All
S. Agree/Agree
(favor Islamic influence)
Disagree/ S. Disagree (not
favor Islamic influence)
A married woman can work outside the home
83 84 81 81 84 85
A university education is more important for a boy than a girl
73 78 67 71 77 82
On the whole, men make better political leaders than women
26 34 20 25 30 39
Attitudes toward Women and Gender Equality among Respondents Who Do and Who Do Not Favor a Political Role for Islam
Islamic jurists and religious scholars often differ in their interpretations of certain issues in Islam. To
what extent you agree or disagree with each interpretation below?
Men of religion should have influence over the decisions of government
% Supporting “progressive” interpretationWave Two Wave Three All
S. Agree/Agree
(favor Islamic influence)
Disagree/ S. Disagree (not
favor Islamic influence)
In a Muslim country, non-Muslims should enjoy less political rights than Muslims
74 70 64 58 81 77
In Islam, women should wear modest clothes without needing to wear the hijab
64 62 62 57 66 66
Proper Interpretation of Islam Views of Respondents Who Favor and
Who Do Not Favor a Political Role for Islam
Individual Political Engagement and Assessment
National Political Engagement:• Vote in last parliamentary election• Political Interest• Trust in government Personal Civic Engagement• Member of civic associations• Interpersonal trust• Political efficacy
Very Interested Slightly Not at All0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
28
13
34
2627
12
34
28
Wave Two
Wave Three
Wave Two
Wave Three
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
55 58
-54 -42
No
Yes
Wave Two
Wave Three
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2214
-26-34
None
High
How much trust do you have in the government
To what extent are you interested in politicsDid you vote in last
parliamentary election
National Political Engagement
A Closer Look at Trust in Government
• Which Countries Experienced the Most Change from Wave Two to Wave Three?
• What Are Some of the Demographics of Changing Assessments?• Example of Yemen
• What Are Some of the Determinants of Trust in Government?• Linear Regression with Wave Three Data
Model (OLS – 9 countries) Coefficient (B) Std. Error SignificanceConstant 3.294 .063 .000The economic situation of our country is good
.472 .012 .000Islam should exert political influence
-.116 .010 .000Our country is very democratic (1-10 scale)
.108 .004 .000Female .037 .019 .049
Older .003 .001 .000Dependent variable: higher trust in government
H1. Perceptions of the country’s economic situationH2. Desire for Islam to exert political influenceH3. Degree to which Government is perceived to be democratic
What Pushes Trust in Government Up or Down?
Economic Situation
Perceived to be Favorable
Opposes Islam Exerting Political Influence
Country Perceived to be
DemocraticAlgeria Yes Yes YesEgypt Yes Yes YesIraq Yes Yes Reversed YesJordan Yes No YesLebanon Yes Yes YesPalestine Yes Yes YesSudan Yes No YesTunisia Yes Yes YesYemen Yes No Yes
Drivers of Higher Trust in GovernmentResults of Linear Regression with Demographic Control Variables
Preview of Coming AttractionsData• Release Wave 3 data• Prepare merged 3-wave dataset Dissemination• Increase number and coverage of short reports• Enhance collaboration with Arab Reform Initiative• Increase authors from the region Wave 4• Review Interview Schedule• Continue fund-raising• Explore addition of countries Capacity-Building• Expand support for local teams• Increase opportunities for Arab social scientists