The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model

• generalization that depicts a countries development from a pre-industrial society to a post-industrial society and beyond

• Describes changing levels of fertility and mortality as well as general levels of population growth

• Based on known facts rather than general assumption

The Demographic Transition Model

As we go through, consider these questions: What countries might be in each stage? Where are the core, periphery and semi-periphery countries?

Stage 1: High Stationary / Pre-Transition

• High birth rate and high death rate• Two rates are nearly equal • Death rate fluctuating likely due to war

and disease• Involves a low-income agricultural

economy• Children are less of an expense and

more of a commodity• Population growth is very slow• Population resides in rural areas• Countries? Core, periphery or semi-

periphery?

Stage 2: Expanding Stage / Early Transition

• Birth rate remains high

• Death rate begins to fall rapidly

• Results in population explosion

• Early industrialization paralleled with medical and health advances

• Infant mortality declines, life expectancy increases

• This stage characterizes nations in early development

• Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 3: Late Expanding Stage / Late Transition

• Principle feature is a declining birth rate which is the result of voluntary decisions to reduce family size and the availability of contraceptives• Increased standards of living • Rate of Natural Increase is falling• The cost of children is increasing • Medical advancements continuing to decrease death rate• Population still increasing relatively quickly • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 4: Low Growth Stage / Post Transition

• Birth rate remains slightly above the death rate• Rate of Natural Increase is low• Population growth is low and stable • Women entering workforce, couples postponing families while educational goals are sought• Population viewed as ‘greying’ or ‘aging’ • Canada would fall into this stage of the DTM • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining

• The population is declining• Characterizes countries with present and predicted negative population growth rates such as Russia and many European countries• Death rate begins to exceed the birth rate • Countries? Core, periphery or semi-periphery?

Relationship to Population Pyramids

• By analyzing population pyramids, one can decipher fairly accurately the stage of the demographic transition model that that particular country is in and vice versa

• In combination with each other and if the model holds true, a countries future growth and development can be predicted

• Shortcoming of the Demographic Transition Model: does not provide a bold hypothesis about future growth or decline

Stage 1: Pre-Transition and Unstable

Stage 2: Expanding / Early Transition

Stage 3: Stable / Late Transition

Stage 4: Stationary / Post-Transition

Stage 5: Deindustrialization / Declining

BR 10.68; DR 8.09; IMR 4.85; FR 1.59, LE 81.48; DT 89.3

BR 13.68; DR 8.39; IMR 5.98; FR 2.06, LE 78.48; DT 77.9

• BR 12.31; DR 7.17; IMR 15.62; FR 1.55, LE 74.84; DT 145.5

• BR 20.6; DR 7.43; IMR 67.14; FR 2.58, LE 67.14; DT 53.3

• BR 17.8; DR 6.3; IMR 26.99; FR 2.23, LE 71.62; DT 67.3

• BR 17.5; DR 6.4; IMR 20.5; FR 2.16, LE 71.62; DT 72.8

• BR 18.9; DR 5.0; IMR 16.77; FR 2.27, LE 76.66; DT 64.5

• BR 15.8; DR 2 IMR 11.59; FR 2.38, LE 76.71; DT 22.9

• BR 12.3; DR 6.9 IMR 4.55; FR 2.38, LE 81.9; DT 62.2

• BR 39.3; DR 2 IMR 14.6; FR 121.6, LE 49.7; DT 31.5

• BR 9.06; DR 9.93 IMR 3.4; FR 1.4, LE 81.9; DT 184.21